Blues match anything up to the top of the 2nd round compensation tier. I suspect that would include up to 5 years at 4.68M. If a team wants to go 6 or 7 years, and adjusts the AAV to keep it under 4.68M, Blues still match. However, I don't think Hofer would be eager to sign that long term at a likely under market contract as a team's No. 1.
Hofer at 4.68M for any length of time fits in fine with the Blues cap structure. Binnington has two years remaining on his deal at 6M. 10.68M allocated to goaltending is not an untenable cap situation, particularly with the rising cap. There are 8 teams currently carrying a cap charge over 9.5M for goaltending and 7 more over 7.8M. The Blues have an important decision to make in net but the timeline for that decision is not this offseason. Binnington is undoubtedly the No. 1 but for how long remains to be seen. Will there be an extension for him on the table after this current deal runs out? He will be 34 prior to the start of the 27-28 season. As a late bloomer, plenty of tread left on the tires in theory. 336 career GP for Binnington (compared to 750+ for Bobrovsky and 1000+ for Flower).
There may be a retaliation RFA signing at some point in the future by EDM but doing it this offseason with Hofer is not the play, particularly with Bouchard needing a new deal and McDavid needing a new deal by July 1, 2026.
The most likely outcome is that Hofer elects for arbitration and either signs an extension before the hearing or takes a 1-2 year arbitration award. However, he will still be an RFA at the end of it with 3 years of team control remaining.
