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Proposal: Offers for Howard

I don't think any team is giving that up for Howard, Tampa just doesn't have the leverage to pull that off. I think something like 2 2nds, a 2nd and a decent prospect or a late 1st is much more realistic.

I'd do Pickering and a 2nd for Howard but that already feels like a bit of an overpayment to me.


I thought there was a report that he was going to do the full 4 years at uni? and then become a UFA?
 
I don't think any team is giving that up for Howard, Tampa just doesn't have the leverage to pull that off. I think something like 2 2nds, a 2nd and a decent prospect or a late 1st is much more realistic.

I'd do Pickering and a 2nd for Howard but that already feels like a bit of an overpayment to me.
Where is Howard going to go? He isn't a UFA in August. Still 1 year out. He will need to play somewhere in 25/26. I'm assuming he didn't sign with an agent, so he can return to school if he wishes. At this point, probably have to treat him like Cal treated Fox when they packaged him with Hamilton/Ferland in that big trade with Carolina for Hanifin/Lindholm vs try to find a standalone trade for him.
 
I thought there was a report that he was going to do the full 4 years at uni? and then become a UFA?
He has said he will go back to UofM, but school doesn't start until the fall and that choice can absolutely still change. McGroarty said around the same time last year that he was going to commit for another year in the NCAA instead of signing with Winnipeg. The Jets traded him, and he signed with Pittsburgh instantly
 
I could see NJ offering a second since they have two and Seamus Casey who is ready to make the jump as a right handed defender. After the playoffs my guess is that Simon Nemec is back in the organization's plans and the team has a log jam at right defense with three veterans on long term deals and they could use another good forward prospect.
No need for the 2nd, I would do it for Casey straight up
 
Since he may go back to school and there’s a chance the team that traded from him never gets him I’d offer the rights to Marner for the rights to him. Tampa probably has no interest in Marner but being in a tax free state they could sign him a lot cheaper then most teams
 
Didn’t Anaheim just give up Drysdale for Gauthier? I don’t know much about Howard but if he’s good enough teams might cough up something decent. I also recognize that people consider Anaheim the winners if that trade at this point but Drysdale was a legit prospect/player at the time.
It was Drysdale and Anaheim's 2025 2nd for Gauthier.
 
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I'd do Pickering and a 2nd for Howard but that already feels like a bit of an overpayment to me.

I'm surprised you would want that trade. I'd think Pickering would be worth more than Howard, and that's before getting in to how contract uncertainty would effect Howard's value.
 
What’s the projection for Howard?

Tampa at a minimum would get a 2027 2nd rounder (63rd overall) if they let his rights expire. It's probably better for both sides to get something done soon, although Howard wouldn't necessarily be delaying his RFA clock since he'd have to sign a 3 year ELC if he signed now (21 years old) vs. a 2 year ELC if he were to sign August 2026 (22 years old).

The indication seems to be that the 2025 Draft isn't deep, so I wouldn't be shocked if there was a team willing to give up a late first if they thought Howard could contend for an NHL spot soon rather than waiting 3+ years with the pick.

Off the top of my head, here's some prospects who forced trades:

2011: Calgary drafted Tim Erixon with the 23rd pick in 2009 but he declined to sign. He would have re-entered the 2011 Draft where some thought he'd be a top 15 pick. Calgary would have received the 53rd pick as compensation but Erixon steered them to trade him to the Rangers. New York gave up picks #45, #57, and a lesser prospect (Roman Horak) and signed Erixon before the deadline. Maybe not the same exact situation since Erixon risked re-entering the draft whereas Howard would not.

2019: Carolina trades Adam Fox to the Rangers for a 2019 2nd and 2020 3rd. Like Howard, Fox had completed his junior year of college and Carolina had his rights for another year. But since Fox wasn't a first rounder, they risked getting nothing if they let Fox go back for his senior year and then become a free agent.

2022: Minnesota drafted with Jack McBain with a 3rd round pick in 2018. McBain didn't want to sign with Minnesota. Since he wasn't a 1st rounder, Minnesota would have received no compensation if McBain went the August 15th route. They'd trade him to Arizona for a 2022 2nd rounder.

2024: Cutter Gauthier and Rutger McGroarty forced trades by declining to sign. Both got decent returns since the field wasn't limited like the cases with Erixon/Fox.

I'm sure I'm forgetting others (John Marino) but as long as Howard doesn't limit the field, I think Tampa should be able to recoup something close to their original investment (31st pick in 2022).
Thanks for the post and trying to be nice. Cutter for Dryadale and a 2nd is not a decent return. Unfortunately, Dryadale looks like a #4 at best. That 2nd better turn into a 40 goal scoring wing!
 
He has said he will go back to UofM, but school doesn't start until the fall and that choice can absolutely still change. McGroarty said around the same time last year that he was going to commit for another year in the NCAA instead of signing with Winnipeg. The Jets traded him, and he signed with Pittsburgh instantly
Howard attends and plays at Michigan State, not Michigan.
 
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Will be interesting to see what TB gets for him...I'm guessing not more than a 2nd and a B prospect.
Yup. The compensation for Howard becoming a free agent Aug 2026 is pick 63 (2027) Hrs got one more season in college go get there. He will be 22 at that point. What value do small, not proven, 22 year old wingers have?
 
Since he may go back to school and there’s a chance the team that traded from him never gets him I’d offer the rights to Marner for the rights to him. Tampa probably has no interest in Marner but being in a tax free state they could sign him a lot cheaper then most teams

:laugh:

He'll get a second round pick just based on the compensation for losing him. Please keep Marner
 
Yup. The compensation for Howard becoming a free agent Aug 2026 is pick 63 (2027) Hrs got one more season in college go get there. He will be 22 at that point. What value do small, not proven, 22 year old wingers have?

If he wasn't a signing risk it would easily be somewhere in the top half of the 1st round.
 
If he wasn't a signing risk it would easily be somewhere in the top half of the 1st round.
Maybe? But he’s still a small, unproven, 21 year old winger. He is approaching the end of his runway of development. Teams might prefer to use their later first to select an 18 year old prospect who they know has a full runway of development left. How much is Howard going to improve from where he is now compared to where that 18 year old play will be three years from now?
Imo Howard’s trade value is impacted by more than just being a signing risk.
 
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Maybe I missed it, but why doesnt he want to sign with TB? They seem like a well run org who is always in the mix.
 
Maybe? But he’s still a small, unproven, 21 year old winger. He is approaching the end of his runway of development. Teams might prefer to use their later first to select an 18 year old prospect who they know has a full runway of development left. How much is Howard going to improve from where he is now compared to where that 18 year old play will be three years from now?
Imo Howard’s trade value is impacted by more than just being a signing risk.

and some teams will take the skilled/seasoned prospect ready to step in immediately on a nice ELC contract. I think I am missing your point, all prospects have positives and negatives.
 
and some teams will take the skilled/seasoned prospect ready to step in immediately on a nice ELC contract. I think I am missing your point, all prospects have positives and negatives.
How much of a prospect is a guy who 21 and fully physically mature compared to an 18 year old? Teams will project where the 18 year old will be in 3 years of development and compare that to where Howard is now.
I could see a club trading a 21 year old AHL player for Howard though. An apples for apples trade.
 
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