Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?

[weems]

The guy we traded for, Josh Thole.

I don't expect him to catch Dickey every time though, if the Jays plan on having Dickey till he's at least 44, probably older, they'll want Arencibia learning how to catch him. I think we'll see (Assuming Dickey is healthy all season) Thole catch 25 of his games, Arencibia 5-6 of his games and Nickeas 1 or 2.

Reason? Thole isn't going to be here for very long, don't expect him to be here even at the end of Dickey's current contract. He's pretty bad at everything. He's got no power, his discipline is pretty similar to Arencibia, he's nothing special defensively. The only upside is he knows how to catch a knuckleball. He can teach JPA to catch it in the next 2 years.

Huh????

Thole has a career OBP of .331 compared to .275 that JP has posted.

Not to mention Thole has a much better strikeout to walk ratio. Please explain to me how they have "similar" plate discipline?

 

[calcal798]

The guy we traded for, Josh Thole.

I don't expect him to catch Dickey every time though, if the Jays plan on having Dickey till he's at least 44, probably older, they'll want Arencibia learning how to catch him. I think we'll see (Assuming Dickey is healthy all season) Thole catch 25 of his games, Arencibia 5-6 of his games and Nickeas 1 or 2.

Reason? Thole isn't going to be here for very long, don't expect him to be here even at the end of Dickey's current contract. He's pretty bad at everything. He's got no power, his discipline is pretty similar to Arencibia, he's nothing special defensively. The only upside is he knows how to catch a knuckleball. He can teach JPA to catch it in the next 2 years.

Thole and Nickeas should both help teach JPA to get it, and become a better catcher defensively overall. With Nickleas being renowned for that ability by pitchers itll be good for him to help JPA.

 

[Bravid Nonahan]

I think Arencibia can improve. Does anyone know what his numbers pre and post injury were?

 

[Bjorn Le]

I think Arencibia can improve. Does anyone know what his numbers pre and post injury were?

They're not that much different because he was only starting to heat up after interleague ended and he didn't get too far into July. Average was over .240 approaching .250, OBP was closer to his rookie year and slugging was up.

Jaso had an outstanding year offensively in 2012. However, I don't recall anybody saying he would be the solution for the Jays...

Jaso came up when someone said there's not many good catchers around the AL anyway, and people piped up and said Jaso would be amazing and a prefered alternative to Arencibia. The reason they cited? His discipline.

Jaso's power has never been that high ever, it's an anomoly. His BABIP was high relative to his other years. Nothing suggests that's the catcher he is.

 

[McThome]

What? Nobody wants Jaso. At least nobody with common sense wants Jaso.

And you don't need advanced stats to see the issue with Arencibia. When he's not hitting home runs, he's not hitting. And he can't take a walk either.

I have to admit, I've thought on a few occasions to myself, "how perfect woulda pre-2010 Bengie Molina be for this team?"

 

[Bjorn Le]

What? Nobody wants Jaso. At least nobody with common sense wants Jaso.

And you don't need advanced stats to see the issue with Arencibia. When he's not hitting home runs, he's not hitting. And he can't take a walk either.

You must have missed the mini-debate either last thread or the one before it.

And if that last part was true, he'd be hitting under .100 like he was in April.

 

[McThome]

You can't take something away to suit your arguement. Let's take away Bautista's discipline, he's not as good a player. Let's take away Johnson's velocity, how strong will he pitch? Let's take away Gose's defense, he's (If his bat doesn't improve, which it will) Rajai Davis.

I hate when someone says "Let's take away _____ and we'll see how bad someone is". It's not an arguement, JPAs power makes him standout, few catchers posses it.

Stand out? It allows him to play Major League Baseball at a low level.

My point is that, as is, he has negative value in almost everything outside of hitting home runs.

Of course you can't remove that stat when evaluating his total worth. But it is a good way to demonstrate how absolutely one dimensional he has been. But you could take away many catchers plus offensive abilities and they'd still be in the Majors (the Molina brothers all apply). JPA is not a major league ball player unless he's a catcher that hits 18 home runs. There is nothing else that keeps him in the show. If he was a different position, his offense wouldn't be good enough. If it wasn't for the home runs, his offensive wouldn't be good enough for his ability behind the plate.

And I'm a person who think JPA could actually develop offensively into one of the top dozen offensive catchers in the game. But he hasn't and isn't thus far.

 

[McThome]

You must have missed the mini-debate either last thread or the one before it.

I believe I did miss the Jaso comments (it is awesome how much BlueJays talk is on here, but unfortunately I've missed huge chunks of multiple threads this winter).

And if that last part was true, he'd be hitting under .100 like he was in April.

He wasn't being literal.

A question for you. Is JP, should he not have any meaningful improvement in his career (allowing for year to year variance in his numbers of course), good enough to be start (at any position) in the show? This question isn't discounting the very real possibility of improvement; I think he can, I hope he will. But the JP that we've had for two years now, MLB quality? Yes or no.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Stand out? It allows him to play Major League Baseball at a low level.

My point is that, as is, he has negative value in almost everything outside of hitting home runs.

Of course you can't remove that stat when evaluating his total worth. But it is a good way to demonstrate how absolutely one dimensional he has been. But you could take away many catchers plus offensive abilities and they'd still be in the Majors (the Molina brothers all apply). JPA is not a major league ball player unless he's a catcher that hits 18 home runs. There is nothing else that keeps him in the show. If he was a different position, his offense wouldn't be good enough. If it wasn't for the home runs, his offensive wouldn't be good enough for his ability behind the plate.

And I'm a person who think JPA could actually develop offensively into one of the top dozen offensive catchers in the game. But he hasn't and isn't thus far.

His catching's average and improving, he's got good "intangibles" when handling the pitching staff.

The fact of the mater is, there's plenty of major league players; especially catchers that if you take away one attribute they're not longer as good or even MLB players. It's not an arguement unless it actually happens (Like with Lincecum and Jiminez).

 

[The Nemesis]

Jaso came up when someone said there's not many good catchers around the AL anyway, and people piped up and said Jaso would be amazing and a prefered alternative to Arencibia. The reason they cited? His discipline.

I think you're misremembering how things went down. Here's every post from that discussion of Jaso (with edits removing the non-Jaso related parts to save space):

Would John Jaso, Ryan Doumit, Russel Martin or Jarrod Saltalamacchia be upgrades?

And wow, yes, give me Jaso over Arencibia please. Dude has elite plate discipline.

About the only thing. Seems like Jaso is a worse defensive catcher, his power numbers look good last year, but they're an outlier, raw stats don't support them either. He's never had more than 404 AB in a season and before moving to Seattle he was one of the worst catchers in the league in 2011. Would you rather have Arencibia's 30 homerun potential or Jaso's .350-.390 OBP but worse everything else?

I doubt Jaso can repeat his near .400 OBP, his power from last season (Only average anyway) is an outlier, his defensive stats are worse than JPA's, he's older, less likely to improve defensively/offensively. I don't know why you would want Jaso. On base percetange isn't everything. People here criticize JPA for being one dimensional, well Jaso is even more so.

He's not worse defensively. Jaso has the nearly the exact same defensive rating as Arencibia, and he's played more games. They're basically a wash defensively at the moment.

Career wise, Jaso has been much better offensively, and was much, much, much better last year than Arencibia. Arencibia has a career 89 wRC+, while Jaso has a career 116 wRC+. They're really not that close offensively.

One thing I will give you is that Arencibia has a greater chance to improve to the point where he can hopefully be better than Jaso defensively. I wouldn't count on Arencibia posting a wRC+ of 116 in a season, never mind as a career average, though.

Doumit maybe yes (he's also a switch hitter, which is nice). Martin no (he's on a career downswing), Salty probably not (he had more power than JP, but that may very well be a fluke and otherwise he's very similar in profile to JP), Jaso also probably not (power spike for him last year too that props up his SLG and thus OPS. the rest of his career is similar to or worse than JP).

Also none of these guys are all that good defensively, which is where a lot of the value above JP would come from.

Anyways, Jaso's played 3 seasons in the MLB. One was horrible, far worse than Arencibia's ever been (Last year), one that was better, but he showed power that he's never shown before, and a high BABIP. His power will likely drop, and we probably won't see a near .400 OBP either.

On-base-percentage is more heavily weighed than power it seems, despite Jaso being well below average in other areas.

Two were better; 2010 and 2012. Also, his BABIP this year was .298. That's far from high.

One person cited Jaso as being a better option because of his OBP (and by extension discipline). The other noted wRC+ (a more comprehensive stat), but said Arencibia still has value because he can improve and Jaso almost assuredly won't. And I said he wasn't an upgrade.

But yep, "everybody" was clambering over getting Jaso because of his OBP/plate discipline...

 

[Bjorn Le]

He wasn't being literal.

A question for you. Is JP, should he not have any meaningful improvement in his career (allowing for year to year variance in his numbers of course), good enough to be start (at any position) in the show? This question isn't discounting the very real possibility of improvement; I think he can, I hope he will. But the JP that we've had for two years now, MLB quality? Yes or no.

I realize he wasn't, but JPA does "plenty" of things, relatively speaking, offensively.

And if JPA show's no meaningful improvement he's absoultely good enough to start in the MLB. His defense isn't horrible, it's average, and he rare power for a catcher. He'd also be a starting DH on a lot of teams in the AL. People overstate his struggles, he's definitely major league caliber now, and there's quite a few teams who'd like him as a catcher, including our biggest rival.

I think you're misremembering how things went down. Here's every post from that discussion of Jaso (with edits removing the non-Jaso related parts to save space):

It's enough people.

And I think if you asked more people, the number would be higher. Basing that on peoples opinons of JPA.

 

[Epictetus]

It all depends what Roy is asking for contractually. If he's healthy and he's wanting to come back at reasonable dollars, it would be beyond stupid to not get Doc. Scenarios where it makes a lot of sense are numerous (JJ doesn't get sign, Romero can't bounce back). Heck, even a serious injury to any of the five and it might make sense.

True, injuries and contract are a big factor with Halladay. There is no doubt he'd be a welcome addition at the right price, however, I would rather explore other options. He looks to have significantly regressed based on last year. If any of the above scenarios played out, I would look elsewhere first.

20-25 gopher balls and 70 rbi would be just fine. However, he needs to get on base at least 25 more times this season.

Especially if we have the human 'not get on base' machine behind the plate.

Both need to get their OBP up. Under .300 is not going to cut it and is below major league standard.

The good thing though is that they are not essential components for the offense to do well.

Rasmus, particularly, is very capable of reaching 20-25 HR's and 70 RBI's. He's essentially already done it twice.

If Arencibia can reduce his KK% (i.e., not at 30%) and raise his BB% slightly, then his OBP should improve. With him, I care more about the defensive element. My problem is that he is just an average defender at best at a position that demands elite defense.

Why is he not included? Look, I'm a guy who can live with offensive numbers like JPs from a starting catcher. But if that is the case, I want somebody who excels behind the plate. JP brings neither. Take away his home runs and there are probably a dozen guys that can offer exactly what JP did littering the AAA and AA ranks.

I did not include him because AA has pretty much indicated by trading TDA that he is fine with JP for the future.

I do agree with your sentiment, however. I am fine if JP is among the worst catcher's offensively, however his defense would have to be truly elite to make up for it.

C, CF, SS, and 2B are the positions where I will value a player's defense more than their offense.

Because he doesn't have good advanced stats. That's why people want Jaso and his elite discipline over Arencibia who has better just about everything else (Including defense).

No. He's just average defensively at best at a position that demands elite defense.

Honestly, fielding Brendan Ryan, Jose Molina, and Peter Bourjos everyday is fine by me.

I have to admit, I've thought on a few occasions to myself, "how perfect woulda pre-2010 Bengie Molina be for this team?"

I'd probably take his brother Jose at this point still.

 

[McThome]

His catching's average and improving, he's got good "intangibles" when handling the pitching staff.

The fact of the mater is, there's plenty of major league players; especially catchers that if you take away one attribute they're not longer as good or even MLB players. It's not an arguement unless it actually happens (Like with Lincecum and Jiminez).

I would disagree about his catching being average. I view him as below average. You'll point to his respectable arm, I'll point to his suspect blocking. Agree to disagree I guess?

If he's as good as average defensively (again I don't think so), he is below average offensively. His HRs mask that he is a below average offensive catcher.

Or, if he isn't below average, which of the following do you think had worse seasons offensively than JP:
1. Mauer 2. Posey 3. Wieters 4. Santana 5. Y. Molina 6. Montero 7. Doumit 8. Pierzynski 9. McCann 10. Ellis 11. Martin 12. Saltalamacchia 13. Rosario 14. Ruiz 15. Avila 16. Napoli 17. Hanigan 18. Lucroy 19. Jaso 20. Perez

 

[The Nemesis]

It's enough people.

And I think if you asked more people, the number would be higher. Basing that on peoples opinons of JPA.

1 person is not only "enough people" to make a sweeping generalization, but also enough to extrapolate the group from?

 

[Bjorn Le]

No. He's just average defensively at best at a position that demands elite defense.

Honestly, fielding Brendan Ryan, Jose Molina, and Peter Bourjos everyday is fine by me.

Average implies he's at the middle. That means around half of catchers are worse than him. That's why Montero gave way to the below average/average catcher defensively in Jaso.

And fielding three great defenders is all good, but if you have no offense in the rest of the lineup is it?

1 person is not only "enough people" to make a sweeping generalization, but also enough to extrapolate the group from?

Indeed. As well, you'd think more people would take offense to it if they didn't agree with it. The way JPA gets hate around here, I wouldn't be surprised to most people rather have Jaso. We had plenty of people pushing for more Mathis time despite the likelyhood of him faltering once he got more starts (Which did happen).

 

[Leafsdude7]

The guy we traded for, Josh Thole.

I don't expect him to catch Dickey every time though, if the Jays plan on having Dickey till he's at least 44, probably older, they'll want Arencibia learning how to catch him. I think we'll see (Assuming Dickey is healthy all season) Thole catch 25 of his games, Arencibia 5-6 of his games and Nickeas 1 or 2.

Reason? Thole isn't going to be here for very long, don't expect him to be here even at the end of Dickey's current contract. He's pretty bad at everything. He's got no power, his discipline is pretty similar to Arencibia, he's nothing special defensively. The only upside is he knows how to catch a knuckleball. He can teach JPA to catch it in the next 2 years.

AJ Jimenez.

 

[Jatt]

Given the all-time list of Blue Jay catchers ever to hit 20+ HR's has only one name on it, I think JPA has the tools to be an everyday MLB catcher on any squad, the over-hyping of prospects and dumping on JP (who btw only has TWO seasons under his belt) is ridiculous.

 

[McThome]

I realize he wasn't, but JPA does "plenty" of things, relatively speaking, offensively.

Please explain to me what else he does? He certainly doesn't get help by walking enough. He certainly doesn't get enough base hits. He certainly strikes out far to often. He certainly doesn't walk enough. He certainly isn't a threat on the bases. So, do tell, what else does he bring offensively?

And if JPA show's no meaningful improvement he's absoultely good enough to start in the MLB. His defense isn't horrible, it's average, and he rare power for a catcher. He'd also be a starting DH on a lot of teams in the AL. People overstate his struggles, he's definitely major league caliber now, and there's quite a few teams who'd like him as a catcher, including our biggest rival.

Are you serious? I already listed 20 catchers who had better seasons offensively in 2012. And that is one of the couple weakest hitting positions in the sport.

Maybe you could make the argument that if he doesn't have to worry about catching his offensive production would improve a lot; however, you didn't make that argument. Could you please list 10 DHs who were less productive than JP in 2012?

 

[superhakan]

Given the all-time list of Blue Jay catchers ever to hit 20+ HR's has only one name on it, I think JPA has the tools to be an everyday MLB catcher on any squad, the over-hyping of prospects and dumping on JP (who btw only has TWO seasons under his belt) is ridiculous.

I'll have to check, but Im sure Darrin Fletcher did it.

Edit: Yep in 2000

 

[Bjorn Le]

Please explain to me what else he does? He certainly doesn't get help by walking enough. He certainly doesn't get enough base hits. He certainly strikes out far to often. He certainly doesn't walk enough. He certainly isn't a threat on the bases. So, do tell, what else does he bring offensively?



Are you serious? I already listed 20 catchers who had better seasons offensively in 2012. And that is one of the couple weakest hitting positions in the sport.

Maybe you could make the argument that if he doesn't have to worry about catching his offensive production would improve a lot; however, you didn't make that argument. Could you please list 10 DHs who were less productive than JP in 2012?

I'm not going to answer the first one because I think it's fairly obvious what I meant.

Secondly, what's with you an lists? Not only that, what's with you assuming your lists are correct. Not sure where you got me saying he's better than most DHs, I said he's better than quite a few. Including several teams in our division. Besides Boston, the DH position is quite weak in the AL east. Baltimore, Tampa Bay and New York all have crappy DHs.

 

[McThome]

Average implies he's at the middle.

That would be the median, but he is neither at or above the average or median when looking at catchers offensive production.

That means around half of catchers are worse than him. That's why Montero gave way to the below average/average catcher defensively in Jaso.

There are 20 catchers in the league that, without a doubt, had better 2012s offensively. There are a couple more for which you could make an argument for, too.

And fielding three great defenders is all good, but if you have no offense in the rest of the lineup is it?

Your argument rests upon an uninformed notion that JP is an above average catcher offensively. He's not.

Indeed. As well, you'd think more people would take offense to it if they didn't agree with it. The way JPA gets hate around here, I wouldn't be surprised to most people rather have Jaso. We had plenty of people pushing for more Mathis time despite the likelyhood of him faltering once he got more starts (Which did happen).

There is no emotive 'hate' here for JPA. It isn't a judgement to acknowledge his OBP.

On the contrary, I think you've got people like myself willing to give him a chance to improve to the point where he isn't hurting the team simply because he is likeable. As I said, I think he could develop into one of the top dozen offensive catchers in the game. But he is far from that at this point. It isn't 'hateful' to acknowledge reality.

 

[Jatt]

I'll have to check, but Im sure Darrin Fletcher did it.

Edit: Yep in 2000

Nice find, forgot about Fletch.

 

[Dwight K Schrute]

I would disagree about his catching being average. I view him as below average. You'll point to his respectable arm, I'll point to his suspect blocking. Agree to disagree I guess?

If he's as good as average defensively (again I don't think so), he is below average offensively. His HRs mask that he is a below average offensive catcher.

Or, if he isn't below average, which of the following do you think had worse seasons offensively than JP:
1. Mauer 2. Posey 3. Wieters 4. Santana 5. Y. Molina 6. Montero 7. Doumit 8. Pierzynski 9. McCann 10. Ellis 11. Martin 12. Saltalamacchia 13. Rosario 14. Ruiz 15. Avila 16. Napoli 17. Hanigan 18. Lucroy 19. Jaso 20. Perez

The problem with your list is that it is subjective.

I don't think Avila, Hanigan (not even close), or Martin had better season's than JP. I think he is about exactly an average offensive catcher with high potential because of his above average power.

 

[Bjorn Le]

That would be the median, but he is neither at or above the average or median when looking at catchers offensive production.



There are 20 catchers in the league that, without a doubt, had better 2012s offensively. There are a couple more for which you could make an argument for, too.



Your argument rests upon an uninformed notion that JP is an above average catcher offensively. He's not.



There is no emotive 'hate' here for JPA. It isn't a judgement to acknowledge his OBP.

On the contrary, I think you've got people like myself willing to give him a chance to improve to the point where he isn't hurting the team simply because he is likeable. As I said, I think he could develop into one of the top dozen offensive catchers in the game. But he is far from that at this point. It isn't 'hateful' to acknowledge reality.

Oh god please read something before you reply, holy ****. Most of the quotes you've decided to take out of context are about defense. And you're definitely wrong about people hating JPA, plenty of people hate JPA. It's not disappointment, it's hate that "they have to live with him for the foreseable future".

 

[Drunken Crunker]

Former Jay, Tom Candiotti sees Toronto as ideal place for Dickey.

"With R.A.'s knuckleball, he throws it hard enough that it doesn't really come into play that much," Candiotti said. "It's almost like a maximum-effort pitch for him, he's letting it go. He's letting it go as hard as he can, for the most part. He doesn't change speed that often with it, he just jams it in there. So once he locks in with it, he's just going to go, no matter what it's like outside."

Read more here: http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121219&content_id=40746428&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor#disqus_thread