cbcwpg
Registered User
National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats
NHL playoff odds, and who you should root for today.
1.5% for Jets making the playoffs
Odds of making playoffs - now 16% to get first overall pick
- Thread starter DeepFrickinValue
- Start date
1.5% for Jets making the playoffs
cbcwpg
Registered User
Explain Los Angeles... worst team in the league for this stat, yet a very good chance of making the playoffs. Shows you don't have to be a high scoring team as long as you give a shit about playing defense.
tbcwpg
Moderator
- Jan 25, 2011
- 16,685
- 20,172
MardyBum
Registered User
Pretty much the playoff teams are good and the non playoff teams are bad. NJ killed by goaltending and Rags saved by it(and ST).
Also, fwiw :
cbcwpg
Registered User
You know it's bad when you search all the odds websites to find the one that has 1 decimal point higher for the Jets making it.
I guess 1.1 is better than 1.0
I guess 1.1 is better than 1.0
cbcwpg
Registered User
The only person that still thinks we have a chance at the playoffs is a drunk mathematician.
Guardian17
Strong & Free
The unfortunate fact is that even if we win our final 12 games (unlikely since they haven't won more than 4 in a row all season and we'd need to accomplish that feat 3 times over with no losses) we would have 100 points.
With 13 games left, even if Dallas only plays .500 hockey with no loser points, they'll have 96 points.
At least the Ice and the Moose will have playoff bandwagons to jump on and we can cheer for the Rangers to make the conference finals.
We're in a battle with Vancouver and the Islanders to see who can slip the farthest but at best (without lotto luck) we pick 13th and at worst 15th.
With 12 games to go the season has already been decided. A pick in the early teens and no playoffs.
With 13 games left, even if Dallas only plays .500 hockey with no loser points, they'll have 96 points.
At least the Ice and the Moose will have playoff bandwagons to jump on and we can cheer for the Rangers to make the conference finals.
We're in a battle with Vancouver and the Islanders to see who can slip the farthest but at best (without lotto luck) we pick 13th and at worst 15th.
With 12 games to go the season has already been decided. A pick in the early teens and no playoffs.
cbcwpg
Registered User
cbcwpg
Registered User
No odds, but based on the math, every team other than Seattle, Montreal, and Arizona can still catch the Jets in the overall standings.
But, I would guess that are odds of falling down the standings are decent.
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WolfHouse
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2020
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Wow - how bad would this team be without Helle and Comrie...?
drumzan
#NHLJets
- Jul 9, 2011
- 3,475
- 1,545
13-15 seems the most likely draft spot. Plus, new changes to the lottery this year mean you can only move up 10 spots, and only #1 and #2 are lottery picks.
So.... yeah. Not much to get excited about. Just looking forward to the coach firing press conference in a couple weeks.
So.... yeah. Not much to get excited about. Just looking forward to the coach firing press conference in a couple weeks.
nobody imp0rtant
Registered pessimist
- May 23, 2018
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The two events I'm looking forward to seeing the most are the Scheifele exit interview, and the Scheifele trade announcement.
drumzan
#NHLJets
- Jul 9, 2011
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I’d imagine there won’t be a coach firing. TNSE will say they’re going to launch a thorough coaching search and Lowry will be included as a candidate…but eventually not selected as final candidate.
WolfgangPuck
Registered User
- May 12, 2012
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These last stretch of Jets games are meaningless. I think having play-in system for extra two teams for the last two playoff spots like NBA does would allow fan bases like us to stay interested.
nobody imp0rtant
Registered pessimist
- May 23, 2018
- 10,945
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They've had 82 games to finish in the top half of the league. Why should failure be rewarded?
cbcwpg
Registered User
If you are looking at an extra two teams, that would be Vegas and Vancouver right now and still wouldn't include the Jets.
WolfgangPuck
Registered User
- May 12, 2012
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I don’t disagree. We have ten games left. Not watching any games Just proposing an idea to keep fans and players engaged This season is too long
WolfgangPuck
Registered User
- May 12, 2012
- 2,095
- 2,973
I agree But at least Jets would be engaged to pass Canucks with ten games left since there no chance to pass Dallas. It will make me watch some more games.
Not entirely but sports club stats does show the percentages you finish in each spot.
I know that's super small but what it says is we have a 71% chance of finishing 11th in the West and a 23% chance of finishing 10th. So a 94% chance we are 10th or 11th, most likely 11th falling below Vancouver.
In the east they are pretty sure the Islanders will be will be 9th and Columbus 10th
Then you have to click on each team to figure out how often each point total happened in their simulations. For us the model shows that 86 to 89 points is the most likely range with our most likely finish being 87 points.
Columbus' most likely finish is 82-83 points. The Islanders are also most likely to finish at 87 points so this model shows that if we get behind the Islanders we can draft 13th but if we don't we'll pick 14th... most likely.
Don't know if this is what you're looking for, but pretty much we will draft 13th or 14th.
It's even more sad thinking if we had Brossoit still and he was playing as good as Comrie is, since he did when he was still with us, we would still be out of the playoffs. Very sad knowing it don't matter which goalie tandem we have, the defense is just not that good with the guys we have and the defenive coaching strategy we use. Knowing we have had a good goaltending tandem for the last 4 years is nice to have.
