Observations, Part VI

[MrJoshua]

In. Freaking. Credible. That was quite possibly the most fun I've ever had at a hockey game. Backs against the wall and the big guns came out firing.

I thought Stalberg deserved a ton of credit on the Neal goal. He was dogged in pursuit of the puck all night and near the end of a great shift. He's been a very pleasant surprise to me and looks like a great fit on the third line right now.

Forsberg. Still trying to do a little too much himself but the kid is magic. What a way to react to the Calder snub.

Rinne looking like Rinne.

Now I'm hoping that they just rattled Darling and that Chicago is starting to remember he's a backup goalie. Chicago does not want to have to come back to Nashville for a game seven. They're going to be pushing hard in game six. Weather the early storm and take advantage of the inevitable mistakes. Shake their confidence. Win!

 

[David Singleton]

Forsberg Calder Snub...

I made a sarcastic tweet last night on the Calder snub ("he scored a goal for each Calder finalist.").

However...

It's not as crazy or unwarranted as we all (including Nashville bloggers) have made it to be.

From Puck Daddy:
The glaring omission here is Nashville’s Filip Forsberg, who seemed like the slam dunk winner of this award for most of the season, until he fell off down the stretch. From March 4 until March 28, Forsberg had just four points and one goal. Meanwhile, Gaudreau had 16 points in March and four in four games in April. Stone had 35 points in his final 31 games played. Ekblad continued his solid man-child type play all season, crunching upwards of 20 minutes as an 18/19-year-old.

Stone and Gaudreau got scorching hot during the toughest point of the season- the final drive to the playoffs. They propelled their teams into the playoffs, on teams that had to fight for their playoff lives. They both finished with one point more than Forsberg and caught him while having to play a more desperate game since Nashville was pretty comfortably in the playoffs the entire time.

Ekblad could not propel his team into the postseason, but played defense at an incredibly high level as an 18 year old. After we witnessed Seth Jones attempt the same thing, we should be able to appreciate the magnitude of what Ekblad did this year.

This was really a fantastic year for rookies and it's a shame that only three could be nominated and make the trip to Vegas.

Having said all that, if it really upsets Forsberg at all (and I doubt it), he should just make it his mission to go win the Conn Smythe- one shift at a time of course.

 

[Preds Partisan]

 

[tampa pred]

They mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Preds (not sure if referring to the organization, the players, or both) were upset over the Calder snub. While I'm sure Forsberg wouldn't say so, it had to bother him a little bit at least. He probably had a little extra motivation last night. Hopefully, he keeps playing with that chip on his shoulder...

 

[BigFatCat999]

Stay angry and schlack Darling. If the Preds can put doubt in Q's mind about Darling and Crawford they could win game 7 by winning game 6.

 

[drwpreds]

In. Freaking. Credible. That was quite possibly the most fun I've ever had at a hockey game. Backs against the wall and the big guns came out firing.

I thought Stalberg deserved a ton of credit on the Neal goal. He was dogged in pursuit of the puck all night and near the end of a great shift. He's been a very pleasant surprise to me and looks like a great fit on the third line right now.

Forsberg. Still trying to do a little too much himself but the kid is magic. What a way to react to the Calder snub.

Rinne looking like Rinne.

Now I'm hoping that they just rattled Darling and that Chicago is starting to remember he's a backup goalie. Chicago does not want to have to come back to Nashville for a game seven. They're going to be pushing hard in game six. Weather the early storm and take advantage of the inevitable mistakes. Shake their confidence. Win!

Yep- posted about this previously, but Stalberg has been great down the stretch. I know he has been everyone's favorite whipping boy (and deservedly so for the most part) but you have to give him credit. Not nearly enough talk on here about him..... He is probably never going to be a Top 6 guy like everyone hoped, but he can be a great 3rd liner if he keeps playing like this.

 

[Dave is a killer]

Stay angry and schlack Darling. If the Preds can put doubt in Q's mind about Darling and Crawford they could win game 7 by winning game 6.

Couldn't agree more my good friend

 

[Enoch]

Man ... guys ... that was a great game.

 

[drwpreds]

Was looking at some of the stats and it is almost unbelievable but the Predators lead almost every statistical category in this series:

Goals
Goals against
Power play
Penalty Kill
Shots
Chances
Hits
Face off %
5 on 5 f/a

Not only that, Chicago has had the lead in only about 38 total minutes out of somewhere around 360+ minutes of game play. They have led for a total of 1 minute and 15 seconds in the 3 games in Nashville.

The only thing that matters is the W- I get that, but it really is incredible that we are trailing this series given the above statistics.

 

[wpgpreds]

Big, big game and a first for the Predators in winning an elimination game.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we win an elimination game against Vancouver when we were down 3-1 in that series?

 

[Drake744]

Was looking at some of the stats and it is almost unbelievable but the Predators lead almost every statistical category in this series:

Goals
Goals against
Power play
Penalty Kill
Shots
Chances
Hits
Face off %
5 on 5 f/a

Not only that, Chicago has had the lead in only about 38 total minutes out of somewhere around 360+ minutes of game play. They have led for a total of 1 minute and 15 seconds in the 3 games in Nashville.

The only thing that matters is the W- I get that, but it really is incredible that we are trailing this series given the above statistics.

Where did you find this?

 

[Drake744]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we win an elimination game against Vancouver when we were down 3-1 in that series?

Yeah I made the same mistake earlier today

 

[David Singleton]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we win an elimination game against Vancouver when we were down 3-1 in that series?

Yeah I made the same mistake earlier today

Correct. Their only previous elimination game win was Game 5 on the road in Vancouver, going into that game down 3-1. Vancouver then won Game 6 in Nashville to win the series 4-2.

The more accurate statement is that this was their first elimination game win at home.

2010: Chicago, up 3-2 after winning Game 5, won Game 6 in Nashville.
2008: Detroit, up 3-2 after winning Game 5 in Detroit, won Game 6 in Nashville.
2007: SJ, up 3-1 after winning Game 4 in SJ, won Game 5 in Nashville.
2006: SJ, up 3-1 after winning Game 4 in SJ, won Game 5 in Nashville.
2004: Detroit, up 3-2 after winning Game 5 in Detroit, won Game 6 in Nashville.

Thanks!

 

[drwpreds]

Where did you find this?

You can see most of those stats on NHL.com I just calculated the trailing number myself...

 

[Armourboy]

You can see most of those stats on NHL.com I just calculated the trailing number myself...

It's accurate, they showed most of the same stats on the broadcast last night including the trailing number. Saw some of the same stats on NHL tonight as well.

Numbers wise everything points to us dominating this series, minus the almighty win column.

 

[bdub24]

It's accurate, they showed most of the same stats on the broadcast last night including the trailing number. Saw some of the same stats on NHL tonight as well.

Numbers wise everything points to us dominating this series, minus the almighty win column.

To me, this ends the debate about advanced stats. They don't keep you warm at night. Only the W does that.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

To me, this ends the debate about advanced stats. They don't keep you warm at night. Only the W does that.

One exception doesn't "end the debate". No one has ever claimed advanced stats predict the series 100%. But if all I know about a series is who's stats are better, not the scores, I'm picking the team with better stats every time.

This is like saying Darling is a better goalie than Rinne because he's had a better series. One exception doesn't make a rule not true.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Rinne is a Vezina finalist along with Dubnyk and Price. Dubnyk deserved it for the last half of the season and Pekka for the 1st half while Price is going to win it for the entire season.

 

[bdub24]

One exception doesn't "end the debate". No one has ever claimed advanced stats predict the series 100%. But if all I know about a series is who's stats are better, not the scores, I'm picking the team with better stats every time.

This is like saying Darling is a better goalie than Rinne because he's had a better series. One exception doesn't make a rule not true.

But it isn't an exception. It's goimg to be true every time. The team with the W will advance and even if the losing team has better stats, they won't.

 

[drwpreds]

To me, this ends the debate about advanced stats. They don't keep you warm at night. Only the W does that.

Who is suggesting otherwise? Of course that is true.

The whole point of the post was just to show some highly unlikely stats for a team trailing in the series.

I think you would be hard pressed to find another example of a team leading a series this late and trailing in practically every stat- and most of the stats quoted are not fancy analytics-type stats.

 

[101st_fan]

The Hawks have a decided lead in OT scoring and that is the difference in this series right now.

 

[pekkaslap]

Rinne is a Vezina finalist along with Dubnyk and Price. Dubnyk deserved it for the last half of the season and Pekka for the 1st half while Price is going to win it for the entire season.

I'll go ahead and state the obvious by saying that the reason Pekka is a finalist is because the Vezina is voted on by the GMs (people who know hockey) not the PHWA (glorified fans).

 

[darth5]

To me, this ends the debate about advanced stats. They don't keep you warm at night. Only the W does that.

You can make a case with stats for almost anything you want to if you are selective enough.
Statistics and analytics are misused more than they are properly applied. Like any tool they can be extremely insightful when used in the correc t context. They can expose tendencies and systemic issues. They do not pose answers, just give you areas on which to focus. I could conduct a webinar showing how stats are abused in business, sports, politics, news, etc. to support what the person wants to do/believe/advocate.

 

[101st_fan]

I'll go ahead and state the obvious by saying that the reason Pekka is a finalist is because the Vezina is voted on by the GMs (people who know hockey) not the PHWA (glorified fans).

He is also in the top three for wins and GAA for goalies with at least 30 games played. Forsberg was the third highest scoring rookie forward and Ekblad had a very strong season on the blueline while on a not so great team.

 

[pastryloafer]

To me, this ends the debate about advanced stats. They don't keep you warm at night. Only the W does that.

None of those stats listed are advanced stats, which look at possession through shot attempts, not just the shots that get on goal. The Corsi advantage for the games have been:

Game 1: Hawks +4%
Game 2: Even
Game 3: Hawks +2%
Game 4: Hawks +5%
Game 5: Preds +3.5%

(from @ineffectivemath on twitter)

When the Preds have more shots on goal but the Hawks have higher Corsi, it means the Hawks are missing more of their shots or they are getting blocked. But it still means they are applying more pressure and the Nashville defense is having to work to block those shots. Hawks goals have come a lot from getting the Nashville defense scrambling and out of position in order to set up that one shot that does get through.