Prospect Info: NYR Prospect Poll: #18

[Beacon]

To me we've been C+-B prospects pretty much since Kristo and we have a few more to go including everyone up for a vote now + McCarthy, Mantha and Walcott. There's almost a thousand ways to credibly rank the 9 through 26 prospects. Might even add Yogan, Hughes and Nanne. Most of these guys from Kristo on down are not going to make it IMO. I think there's a pretty good chance that 2-3 or 4 of them become decent NHL players--but I try to be an optimist.

We don't need 26 rookies the next few years.

1) On defense if McIlrath, Skjei and one more defenseman makes it, we have a tremendous blue line that will be cheap because half of it will be on an ELC or bridge.

2) At center, if Miller/St. Croix is 2C and Lindberg/Nieves is 3C, we are looking great (and cheap). Moore or a similar player at 4C. The bottom line center should be someone experienced.

3) At LW, I believe Kreider develops into 1LW and Hags is already an elite 3LW. If Duke/Butcher becomes 2LW and Hrivik/Bourque/Yogan is a 4LW, again we are excellent.

4) MZA and Nash are quality top-6 RWs. If either Fast, Kristo or Haggerty becomes 3RW, we are set. (4RW will be our annual goon signing for $1.5)


We only need 8 players. In each case, I think it is not just possible, but likely that we get just that at some point in the next 3 seasons.

 

[mti79]

Nejezchleb. Add Nicholls

 

[eco's bones]

We don't need 26 rookies the next few years.

1) On defense if McIlrath, Skjei and one more defenseman makes it, we have a tremendous blue line that will be cheap because half of it will be on an ELC or bridge.

2) At center, if Miller/St. Croix is 2C and Lindberg/Nieves is 3C, we are looking great (and cheap). Moore or a similar player at 4C. The bottom line center should be someone experienced.

3) At LW, I believe Kreider develops into 1LW and Hags is already an elite 3LW. If Duke/Butcher becomes 2LW and Hrivik/Bourque/Yogan is a 4LW, again we are excellent.

4) MZA and Nash are quality top-6 RWs. If either Kristo or Haggerty becomes 3RW, we are set. (4RW will be our annual goon signing for $1.5)


We only need 8 players. In each case, I think it is not just possible, but likely that we get just that at some point in the next 3 seasons.

I didn't say we needed 26 rookies in the next few years. What I said was starting with Kristo I see it more as pot luck between him and the next 16-17 guys but a 'decent' (operative word--meaning not terrific) chance that a few of them will actually make it. Some of them--the larger majority obviously won't make it.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

But we aren't talking about a first rounder nor about a run of the mill undrafted kid.

Matt Gilroy spent 4 seasons plus a half season in the NHL so far and may play more purely on the strength of his offense and skill.

At the same age, Bodie scored double points per game in college. If you compare their senior years when Gilroy was a year older than Bodie, Gilroy had .822 points per game, while Bodie had .975, significantly more at a younger age.

Stats don't mean everything, but it means an awful lot for an offensive player. It isn't as if Gilroy brought some kind of intangibles to the game. My only concern with Bodie is his ability to withstand the physical element of the game. If he can, no reason he can't have a career as a third pair guy.

That's fine and all, but Bodie is more of a longshot than Iverson.

 

[Joey Bones]

Went Shesterkin. He'll be in the KHL next season on a stacked SKA St. Petersburg team. Add Fogarty.

 

[Beacon]

I didn't say we needed 26 rookies in the next few years. What I said was starting with Kristo I see it more as pot luck between him and the next 16-17 guys but a 'decent' (operative word--meaning not terrific) chance that a few of them will actually make it. Some of them--the larger majority obviously won't make it.

I wasn't being hostile to you, just pointing out that we need a relatively small number of prospects to work out.

 

[eco's bones]

I wasn't being hostile to you, just pointing out that we need a relatively small number of prospects to work out.

I didn't think you were--but I thought I needed to clear my previous comment up a little bit. Personally I think the Rangers free agent signings--Haggerty, McCarthy, Bodie and Zamorsky were excellent ones and they've gotten good value for their picks in the last two drafts even if there were no first or second rounders. High end players are a bit in short supply though compared to other teams.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Iverson. Add Mantha.

 

[nyr2k2]

By the time Bodie began to perform at the college level, it was too late to get drafted. The draft argument doesn't work here. Many players who weren't drafted and certainly had a better than 50-50 chance of making the NHL as soon as they were signed.

In this case, I trust the management that it knows what it's doing in giving away a maximum ELC to a player, so he deserves the #18 spot, which isn't all that early at all.

You're right, my argument about him going undrafted is faulty. Withdrawn, LOL.

I didn't say that he's undeserving of the 18 spot, I just said the odds of him making it aren't 50-50. If our #18 prospect has 50-50 odds of being an NHL player, either we have the league's deepest prospect pool or we're terrible at ranking our prospects.

 

[nyr2k2]

the problem with this logic is that most kids who play NCAA don't enroll until they're 20.
If Bodie had been eligible after entering Union, he'd likely have been picked.
Drafting is lots of guessing based on limited data, otherwise Henrik wouldnt have been drafted a few rounds after a long-forgotten Union College goalie.

undrafted NCAA (like Allen, Bodie) or Junior kids (Girardi, Hughes) get signed over unsigned drafted kids (like the 2 guys who came to NYR Dev camp)

Not every athlete shows his upside potential by 18

would you rather have Hugh Jessiman or Dan Girardi?

Again, I withdraw my comment about his undrafted status.

I'm well aware that some guys take longer to develop, and I've always advocated signing college UDFAs. I like Bodie as a prospect, I just don't think he's at 50-50 odds to make it.

Also, Beac, if we're talking his contract, he signed for the max BASE amount. That's all well and good, but if he were 50-50 with his apparent skill set, I'm sure someone would cough up some bonus cash--like we did with the aforementioned Gilroy and Allen, Boston did with Krug, etc.

50-50 odds on a prospect is like a first round pick. If there was a draft today, do you think Bodie would go in round one? I don't.

 

[Beacon]

50-50 odds on a prospect is like a first round pick. If there was a draft today, do you think Bodie would go in round one? I don't.

You are correct that a late first rounder has a 50-50 chance to make it, but they also have a higher ceiling. Claude Giroux, Mike Richards and Jordan Eberle had a 50-50 chance of making it when they were drafted, but they had a real shot at becoming top-6 forwards, which they eventually did become. When you are a UDFA who is already 24 years old, your development is far further along, so there's less risk and less upside because you're very close to where you'll wind up at your peak.

I certainly think that Conor Allen has a better than 50-50 chance to make the NHL, yet there's no way he'd fetch back a first round pick because he doesn't have the ceiling of a first rounder.

Right before we let go of Corey Potter and Dale Weise, we knew that they had a near-100% chance of playing in the NHL, but because their ceiling was so low, we didn't care about losing them for nothing.

 

[darko]

Iverson, add Andersson

 

[nyr2k2]

You are correct that a late first rounder has a 50-50 chance to make it, but they also have a higher ceiling. Claude Giroux, Mike Richards and Jordan Eberle had a 50-50 chance of making it when they were drafted, but they had a real shot at becoming top-6 forwards, which they eventually did become. When you are a UDFA who is already 24 years old, your development is far further along, so there's less risk and less upside because you're very close to where you'll wind up at your peak.

I certainly think that Conor Allen has a better than 50-50 chance to make the NHL, yet there's no way he'd fetch back a first round pick because he doesn't have the ceiling of a first rounder.

Right before we let go of Corey Potter and Dale Weise, we knew that they had a near-100% chance of playing in the NHL, but because their ceiling was so low, we didn't care about losing them for nothing.

I agree with this in general, however, the whole thing with UDFA players like Mat Bodie is that they were "late bloomers" and they didn't really start to develop until later in their careers--as everyone has pointed out to me (which I acknowledge). So while his age may be more advanced, that doesn't necessarily mean he's closer to being done developing. Maybe closer to being done developing physically, but that's only part of the equation.

Guys like Weise and Potter were defensively-oriented players with a lower ceiling, as you said. Your grinders, your muckers, your bottom-sixers and bottom-pairing guys. Bodie, based on his apparent skills, should have a higher upside than either of those two. Conor Allen is a better comparable to Bodie, I think, and we can definitely say he has a better than 50-50 chance of making it; he had a very good rookie season and actually saw some time on an NHL ice surface. When we signed him, though, would it have been appropriate to peg him at 50-50? Not in my book. Other than the truly elite college UDFA players (which Bodie is not one of), the percentage of guys that never make it to the NHL is vastly larger than the percentage of those that do.

I guess my entire point is that we should wait to see how a guy can perform as a professional before we give him really good odds at making it as an NHL player (and 50-50 odds are really good for any prospect, regardless of how they came into a system). I like Bodie and I'm really glad he's in our organization--but let's be realistic about his chances...he's still a long shot.

 

[Beacon]

Keegan Iverson wins. Next round: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1710377