GDT: NYI @ x - Car

[The Faulker 27]

Now that I've had a night to sleep on it. I've decided we should kill them.

 

[GindyDraws]

I've noticed we've been losing a few games lately, and once again, no President's Trophy (which is something I'd like just for bragging rights). As I've been unfortunately out of the loop, are we resting players, or is there issues with player injuries such as Kotkaniemi affecting our chemistry?

 

[HisIceness]

Now that I've had a night to sleep on it. I've decided we should kill them.

Probably a good idea but can we wait until tomorrow? I'm a little busy today.

 

[The Faulker 27]

Probably a good idea but can we wait until tomorrow? I'm a little busy today.

I don't work on Sundays.

 

[HisIceness]

I've noticed we've been losing a few games lately, and once again, no President's Trophy (which is something I'd like just for bragging rights). As I've been unfortunately out of the loop, are we resting players, or is there issues with player injuries such as Kotkaniemi affecting our chemistry?

To me they look burned out. They looked like they were skating in mud last night.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

To me they look burned out. They looked like they were skating in mud last night.

Honestly, that might just be playing against the Islanders. They're very good at turning games into absolute slogfests

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Out of curiosity, can anyone pinpoint a game (or a stretch of games) where they last looked like a dominant force in the league?

Like, we had the two game set against St Louis and Washington not too long ago where they dominated those games, but the games surrounding those two (and games since) weren't exactly high tier.

Looking back at the games, I'm thinking something happened around late Feb? Maybe early March? We get shutout by Washington on the 3rd, then the team really hasn't looked "right" in any kind of consistency since then.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Out of curiosity, can anyone pinpoint a game (or a stretch of games) where they last looked like a dominant force in the league?

Rangers right before the trade deadline, and Tampa right after.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Rangers right before the trade deadline, and Tampa right after.

That's later than I would say. Simply because our offensive struggles began a bit before that. We barely scraped out wins against Seattle and Philly, for example. And our goaltending was a bit wonky in the Toronto game.

 

[To Be Determined]

Another reason why analytics is undervalued--most of us were pretty dismissive when one or two models (maybe the Athletic and Moneypuck) didn't have Carolina finishing the season with 125+ points. But those models actually do a good job of considering things like strength of schedule and regression to the mean.

memory is funny. with the caveat that i could be absolutely wrong, i don't recall that conversation the way you do at all. i don't remember anyone thinking they'd actually end up with ~125 points. the way i remember it, at the time the canes were on pace for close to that number and a model showed them ending with something in the high 90s. like 96-98 points. i recall people being dismissive of the model based on that projection, and give that they hit the high 90s with almost a month to go even with some meh games in there i'd say the dismissive folks were pretty much on the nose.

maybe i'm off and the model had us higher. but either way, i don't think anyone was mad at the idea that they'd not hit 125.

 

[Lempo]

I don't work on Sundays.

Holiday work hath no blessing.

 

[emptyNedder]

memory is funny. with the caveat that i could be absolutely wrong, i don't recall that conversation the way you do at all. i don't remember anyone thinking they'd actually end up with ~125 points. the way i remember it, at the time the canes were on pace for close to that number and a model showed them ending with something in the high 90s. like 96-98 points. i recall people being dismissive of the model based on that projection, and give that they hit the high 90s with almost a month to go even with some meh games in there i'd say the dismissive folks were pretty much on the nose.

maybe i'm off and the model had us higher. but either way, i don't think anyone was mad at the idea that they'd not hit 125.

My memory is no better. However, I thought the model indicated they would play at a 96 point pace for the second half of the season--not end with 96 points.

 

[MinJaBen]

To me they look burned out. They looked like they were skating in mud last night.

I’ve been wondering about this for a while now. And listening to some of the postgame comments from players, I think that this might be the case. It seems to me that Rod’s system is great for getting into the playoffs, and would probably be great for the playoffs, but is probably not possible for the 100 or more games necessary to do both. The season is just too long to go balls to the wall for that long.

And we don’t have enough elite talent to get by at 85% effort.

 

[Chrispy]

My memory is no better. However, I thought the model indicated they would play at a 96 point pace for the second half of the season--not end with 96 points.

The preseason model was for 96 points on the season based on the loss of Hamilton and a predicted downgrade at goalie vs Mrazek and Nedeljkovic. That was clearly off fairly early in the season, yet the assumption was always they would regress to the prediction rather than play more like last season or the beginning of this season.

So I think you're correct the model predicted around a 96 point pace for the second half, because that's what was predicted preseason.

 

[larueskee]

The struggles started on Monday Feb. 12. That was the game Deangelo left after playing 6 minutes. They won that game in ot but it was the Flyers. Since that game they have won 11 and lost 11 picking up some loser points along the way. Tony came back on March 20 a game the Canes lost 2-0 to the Rangers. 11 games into Tony being back the Canes are 5 wins and 6 losses. Some games it seems we just can't score a goal, the powerplay is weak, and Rod keeps doing the same things over and over. Why the heck isn't Chris Drury playing? Is Chatfiled a better option than Bear? Only a few games left to figure out who is who before the playoffs.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Proof on-ice officiating was an embarrassing shit show...the NHL, who rarely suspends anyone, suspended Cizikas for 1 game on a hit the refs deemed a 2 min minor (though perhaps that was out of mercy for our pitiful PP)

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The struggles started on Monday Feb. 12. That was the game Deangelo left after playing 6 minutes. They won that game in ot but it was the Flyers. Since that game they have won 11 and lost 11 picking up some loser points along the way. Tony came back on March 20 a game the Canes lost 2-0 to the Rangers. 11 games into Tony being back the Canes are 5 wins and 6 losses. Some games it seems we just can't score a goal, the powerplay is weak, and Rod keeps doing the same things over and over. Why the heck isn't Chris Drury playing? Is Chatfiled a better option than Bear? Only a few games left to figure out who is who before the playoffs.

Oh snap is Chris Drury coming out of retirement?

 

[hblueridgegal]

I’ve been wondering about this for a while now. And listening to some of the postgame comments from players, I think that this might be the case. It seems to me that Rod’s system is great for getting into the playoffs, and would probably be great for the playoffs, but is probably not possible for the 100 or more games necessary to do both. The season is just too long to go balls to the wall for that long.

And we don’t have enough elite talent to get by at 85% effort.

I have believed this for a while especially with our scorers. As the season has progressed, they have looked like they're wiped out at times from chasing the opponent all over the place and all of the PKs.

It's also easy to mistakenly believe that the Canes are still the grinder, give it all ya got team, that made it to the Eastern Conf finals but how many of those OGs remain on the team today? Many of these newer additions are ok but they don't really impress me on that front. They've been castoff from various teams. If we need workhorses for Rod's style, I'd rather give some of our youthful prospects a go at it.

 

[Negan4Coach]

AAAAAAA TULSKY DAMN YOU

 

[Chrispy]

AAAAAAA TULSKY DAMN YOU

Looking at this trade deadline I think the Borg made the right call in holding.

Fast forward a year:
Tampa has no 1st or 2nd in 2023 and no 1st in 2024.
Florida has no 1st or 3rd in 2023 and no 1st or 2nd in 2024.
Boston has no 2nd in 2023 and no 2nd in 2024.

I’m not talking about building for the long term here; I’m saying Carolina is set up to outbid a lot of teams for a 2023 deadline deal. And come next year, Florida may not have Giroux or Chiarot either.

Lots of teams went all in this year and won’t be able to do so next year.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Cizikas suspended one game for smith hit.​

5 minutes should have been the call.

 

[Svechhammer]

Looking at this trade deadline I think the Borg made the right call in holding.

Fast forward a year:
Tampa has no 1st or 2nd in 2023 and no 1st in 2024.
Florida has no 1st or 3rd in 2023 and no 1st or 2nd in 2024.
Boston has no 2nd in 2023 and no 2nd in 2024.

I’m not talking about building for the long term here; I’m saying Carolina is set up to outbid a lot of teams for a 2023 deadline deal. And come next year, Florida may not have Giroux or Chiarot either.

Lots of teams went all in this year and won’t be able to do so next year.

In my opinion we shouldn't even wait for the deadline for a big swing. We should really consider going big game hunting for an elite scorer this summer.