NYI 5 : LAK 2 - First periods matter too, jabronis

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How'd Gravel look?

I thought he looked fine. Protected somewhat. Didn't have to play with Schenn. 3 minuses for Luke. Luke paired with Muzz. Gravel paired with Martinez. Not much chemistry, but that is likely. I give Gravel high marks for his debut. No PK, No PP. All 5 on 5.
 
I still can't understand for the life of me why we were having so much trouble with the Isles crossing the blueline and hitting a trailer...and then after a point shot everyone completely losing their coverage. It's like the Sutter practices UNDID our system.

And I liked Gravel's game, he uses his reach better than Forbort and was decisive. Would like to see how he looks in a win.

However, dislike the pairings, Muzzin-Schenn was uuuugly, I get you want to shelter gravel's minutes but man, that one does not work.

We're doing a pretty good job at testing that theory.

:laugh: ....:cry:
 
And because I had to look:

Kings blow everyone away with a 56.2 CF%. next closest team is almost THREE FULL PERCENT BEHIND.

Total Powerplay Opportunities:157 (25th in league). Home PP: 81 (24th) Away PP: 76 (21st).

Total Times Shorthanded: 192 (3rd in league). Home PKs: 97 (4th) Away PKs: 95 (6th).

I get it, we're aggressive, but that's appalling.

And, of course, our PDO and special teams are in the crapper at the moment, so that's leading to losses.

Though our PDO, it can be argued, is low due to rolling out the red carpet in the d-zone. I'd argue we're actually going to turn it around both soon and big, but I can't see stats through my tears, either.
 
Ok I'll bite. Wtf is PDO and why do I care?

Your team's shooting percentage + save percentage. Some teams will ride high, others will ride low, but over the course of a few seasons you typically stay pretty consistent. We typically ride a little low for obvious reasons, but not FIVE PERCENT lower than usual.

Team with a high PDO and low CF% are the teams whose bubble tends to pop, like Calgary, Colorado, Toronto, etc...we seem to have the opposite problem to a degree but right now it's extreme.

Would be silly to put a ton of faith in it just due to simple variance but I like it a lot in context.
 
All right...I'll take the hit for the loss... It seems that every time I have a cold...the Kings not only lose...but UGLY... Hope to be over this **** by tomorrow...
 
Your team's shooting percentage + save percentage. Some teams will ride high, others will ride low, but over the course of a few seasons you typically stay pretty consistent. We typically ride a little low for obvious reasons, but not FIVE PERCENT lower than usual.

Team with a high PDO and low CF% are the teams whose bubble tends to pop, like Calgary, Colorado, Toronto, etc...we seem to have the opposite problem to a degree but right now it's extreme.

Would be silly to put a ton of faith in it just due to simple variance but I like it a lot in context.

I don't know much about these stats. Does that mean we'll tend to get better as it tends back to normal?
 
I don't know much about these stats. Does that mean we'll tend to get better as it tends back to normal?

As it trends back to normal, most likely yes, because that means we're saving more shots and more are going in FOR us. It's a pretty simple stat/formula really, but when it's exceptionally low, you can usually chalk it up to bad 'luck' (i.e. running into a string of goalies who post .950), even if there's an explanation for it.

The 'trend' is near 100 for obvious reasons, but some teams run high (due to skill or exceptional goalies) and some run low (like us, high volume shots but lower shooting %).

Last year, the highest PDO was the Rangers with 101.92, and the low was Carolina with 97.13. We were right smack in the middle with 100.11.

For this season, the high is NYR with 102.83--you can probably expect it to come down a little based on history BUT they already crashed down from an earlier 10 freaking 7. The low--and this is one of the reasons they're so scary in combination with their high CF% (eerily like the 2012 Kings)--is Anaheim with 97.83. We are 21st at 99.41 for the season--so you can argue we're right where we should be in the standings, or maybe we should actually be a little higher (but as you probably can tell this is a common refrain until playoff time).

However--since Jan 1st--the high is FLA 103.9, the low is Buffalo at 97.3, and we're at 25 with 97.9.

Don't read this one on its own but this is why I'm always skeptical and say we're due for a bounceback when we're taking 56.3% of the shot attempts in a game but getting near league-worst goaltending (statistically) and shooting %s, numbers that are godawful even for us. (though as I pointed out in an above post those numbers are influenced very clearly by rolling out the red carpet into our slot).
 
http://www.puckalytics.com/teamstats.html

There you can see the CF% and PDO's.

The Kings are 26th in ES sh%. You can see that in the team totals. Although these are total shots, not just shots at ES, but stats are stats, and none of them tell the entire story by themselves.

Of the top 6 guys in shots on net, only Toffoli is over 10%. Of the top 10, only Toffoli and Kopitar are over 10%. Of the top 16, only Toffoli, Kopitar, and Lucic are over 10%. A lot of those are defensemen, and they're obviously not going to have a huge %, because they're shooting from further away. Lucic doesn't really shoot the puck, as he's 11th in shots on net. The guys that get the shots on net, that contribute to that 56 CF%, aren't scoring on the shots they get. Brown, Carter, and Gaborik are top 3 on the team in shots, but they're all below their career average in sh%.

Toffoli, Doughty, Lewis, and Lucic have a sh% above their career average. Muzzin, Martinez, and for most part Kopitar are pretty much at their average. Brown, Carter, Gaborik, and Pearson are below. You can see why the Kings have basically been a 1 line team this year.

If you go to the player section on that site, and you put in a minimum of 400 ES minutes, the Kings make up 7 of the top 10 on the list in CF%, 9 of the top 14, 11 of the top 20, and 13 of the top 26. Put in 550 minutes, and it's 11 of the top 21. 650 minutes, 8 of the top 15.

The Kings are a volume shooting team, and that's why they're up there in a shooting statistic. It's a literally any shot toward the other net is better than any shot toward your own net philosophy. That's why Sutter says if you're actually playing defense, you're doing it wrong. It's also why if the Kings aren't going to the net, it's going to be a long and boring night.
 
In a month, I have gone from feeling the most confident I have in this team since 2012, to seeing shades of the wildly inconsistent 14/15 squad.
 

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