Speculation: Now what do we do? - Part 3

[Todd1a]

The conclusion of this article is that McPhee will pick a forward from TBL and that seem logical because he will have good options for Dmen and especially goalies.

As it stands now with the NMC, Stamkos, Callahan, and Filppula have to be protected.

To round out the seven you add Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, and Drouin.

That leaves Killorn and Namestnikov exposed and McPhee chooses one.

If Filppula is traded before the expansion draft, then SY gets to choose between Killorn and Vlady. That is the only real difference.

Bottom line is one of Killorn or Vlady goes to Vegas.

Yep we lose killorn or vladdy but yzerman could trade killorn or vladdy to get a return from a team that can protect one of them

 

[DFC]

I'd rather Drouin make the pass even if he's LH, MSL was able to hit clean passes regardless on where he was on the ice, Drouin can do the same. The flubby passes Stamkos gets from Stralman and Hedman sometimes are ridiculous, that or they're so slow the goalie has already moved into position.

Wonder if they'll try Conacher on the PP, his shot looked nasty from the right side.

Conacher also might be the most tenacious net-front presence in the organization, weirdly. I'm not even sure he'll be on the NHL roster, but I feel like that's one spot where he was really useful.

 

[DFC]

The problem with a lefty passing to Stamkos is they have to pivot which telegraphs the whole play. Of course Stralman hasn't gotten it done either. We need a guy who can shoot or pass from that spot and do it deceptively and accurately.

If ever there was a lefty who could disguise that pass though, it's #27. He disguises it TOO well sometimes.

 

[Hoek]

If ever there was a lefty who could disguise that pass though, it's #27. He disguises it TOO well sometimes.

Good point. He's always surprising his linemates.

 

[The Gongshow]

Man... I'm gonna miss Ben

 

[LightningStrikes]

#teambishop

 

[These Are The Days]

We talk about Conacher as if he is a sure thing to make the team. Once Callahan comes back it's hard to be sure of his role. Coop vs logic is the most scary matchup in the NHL. Sometimes he gets it right sometimes he doesn't.

 

[Stammertime91]

I honestly don't see how Conacher doesn't make the team. He's faster than Paquette and Brown, better shot than both and drives the net much better than both. He's also better than Condra and I'll sing that tune til he falls flat, Condra basically is a tweener right now and is barely NHL material. I imagine Conacher is on the 4th with Boyle and one of Brown or Paquette until Callahan comes back and if he's doing better, one of those two will join Condra in the press box and rightfully so for Paquette. I appreciate the heart and love Paquette but I was more frustrated with him last year than I was pleased. Conacher could be rejuvenated and hit 10-15 goals and get about 30 points. He adds speed and net front presence that we need. He's got hands, he just needs to find his game again and be consistent. It helps Cooper is his coach again and he's back in Tampa, I hope it pans out for him and the team.

As for the Killorn and Vladdy situation, simple solution, trade Flip and keep Killorn. I highly doubt Killorn is somebody they'd just let go of after signing that contract. This organization thinks highly of him and they love him cause he isn't Ovechkin, but because he's a two way player. Why do you think we have Condra? Just my two cents. I see it being more beneficial to keep Killorn and let them take Vlad. Killorn is a top 6 winger and we can't afford to lose a pivotal piece like that, especially when writing is on the wall to alleviate 7m from the exit of Bishop next season. Move Flip and gain another chunk of space. Cap hit isn't the issue there, not at all, it's who does the organization value more, Killorn or Vlad? My money is on Killorn cause if there was a person on a milk carton the past two postseasons, it's Vlad.

 

[CupsOverCash]

We talk about Conacher as if he is a sure thing to make the team. Once Callahan comes back it's hard to be sure of his role. Coop vs logic is the most scary matchup in the NHL. Sometimes he gets it right sometimes he doesn't.

Well the thing about him is that he has a history here and with Coop. If he can catch some of that magic he once had here he would definitely provide that secondary scoring we have been needing. Thing is that was a while ago. I don't think anybody is holding their breath over it but I think people have reason to believe why it could work.

 

[tjs*]

I honestly don't see how Conacher doesn't make the team. He's faster than Paquette and Brown, better shot than both and drives the net much better than both. He's also better than Condra and I'll sing that tune til he falls flat, Condra basically is a tweener right now and is barely NHL material. I imagine Conacher is on the 4th with Boyle and one of Brown or Paquette until Callahan comes back and if he's doing better, one of those two will join Condra in the press box and rightfully so for Paquette. I appreciate the heart and love Paquette but I was more frustrated with him last year than I was pleased. Conacher could be rejuvenated and hit 10-15 goals and get about 30 points. He adds speed and net front presence that we need. He's got hands, he just needs to find his game again and be consistent. It helps Cooper is his coach again and he's back in Tampa, I hope it pans out for him and the team.

As for the Killorn and Vladdy situation, simple solution, trade Flip and keep Killorn. I highly doubt Killorn is somebody they'd just let go of after signing that contract. This organization thinks highly of him and they love him cause he isn't Ovechkin, but because he's a two way player. Why do you think we have Condra? Just my two cents. I see it being more beneficial to keep Killorn and let them take Vlad. Killorn is a top 6 winger and we can't afford to lose a pivotal piece like that, especially when writing is on the wall to alleviate 7m from the exit of Bishop next season. Move Flip and gain another chunk of space. Cap hit isn't the issue there, not at all, it's who does the organization value more, Killorn or Vlad? My money is on Killorn cause if there was a person on a milk carton the past two postseasons, it's Vlad.

On what planet is cap hit "not the issue there"? Of course it's the issue! Unless Yzerman can somehow miraculously trade Callahan we're looking at moving/buying out Filppula, trading Garrison, and having to lose at least one more large contract to afford everybody else. If we're lucky it'll be Killorn; if not it could be Palat or Johnson. Or do you think we're going to move Stralman and destroy our blue line so we can keep all of our top six forwards?

 

[Sky04]

Concaher starts on the roster imo, only way he gets waived is if he plays himself off it. Really think he'll find his touch again here though, defintely adds some skill and more speed to the bottom 6.

 

[Stammertime91]

On what planet is cap hit "not the issue there"? Of course it's the issue! Unless Yzerman can somehow miraculously trade Callahan we're looking at moving/buying out Filppula, trading Garrison, and having to lose at least one more large contract to afford everybody else. If we're lucky it'll be Killorn; if not it could be Palat or Johnson. Or do you think we're going to move Stralman and destroy our blue line so we can keep all of our top six forwards?

At the end of next season, Bishop is more than likely gone. Garrison as well. I imagine Filppula is traded and somewhere along the lines a RHD is brought in that's young and cheap. You have the near 7m for Bishop, 5m for Filppula gone right there. Not to mention Condra will be gone too. Again, when it comes down to Killorn and Vlad being chosen, it doesn't come down to cap issue.

That defense won't be blown up either, we will be losing one of Coburn or Garrison and that's something we have to accept. KK comes in the soften the blow and gives us 3 LHD, and we still have two RHD. problem solved if Nesterov was around and slide Coburn to the right but I don't think we even have room for Nesterov this year to resign with us. More than likely that last RHD will come from within, or FA. Basically all we would need at that point is a cheap 3rd pairing defenseman.

 

[These Are The Days]

Well the thing about him is that he has a history here and with Coop. If he can catch some of that magic he once had here he would definitely provide that secondary scoring we have been needing. Thing is that was a while ago. I don't think anybody is holding their breath over it but I think people have reason to believe why it could work.

We can only hope so and we can only hope even more he doesn't catch too much lightning in a bottle and prices himself out in the midst of everyone else needing a new contract.

 

[These Are The Days]

Conacher also might be the most tenacious net-front presence in the organization, weirdly. I'm not even sure he'll be on the NHL roster, but I feel like that's one spot where he was really useful.

I don't know if that says more about us or Conacher and that's not a very comforting thought.

 

[tjs*]

At the end of next season, Bishop is more than likely gone. Garrison as well. I imagine Filppula is traded and somewhere along the lines a RHD is brought in that's young and cheap. You have the near 7m for Bishop, 5m for Filppula gone right there. Not to mention Condra will be gone too. Again, when it comes down to Killorn and Vlad being chosen, it doesn't come down to cap issue.

That defense won't be blown up either, we will be losing one of Coburn or Garrison and that's something we have to accept. KK comes in the soften the blow and gives us 3 LHD, and we still have two RHD. problem solved if Nesterov was around and slide Coburn to the right but I don't think we even have room for Nesterov this year to resign with us. More than likely that last RHD will come from within, or FA. Basically all we would need at that point is a cheap 3rd pairing defenseman.

We agree on who's going to be gone, but if you do the math you'll see that it still won't be enough. Don't forget that all the players who leave need to be replaced - a lot of people leave that out of their calculations.

 

[tjs*]

Again, assuming no bonus overages and before we take anybody off the books besides our UFAs next summer, we'll be looking at $18M plus whatever the cap goes up by to sign the following:

Kucherov
Drouin
Johnson
Palat
Boyle (or replacement)

Sustr (or replacement)
Koekkoek
Nesterov (or replacement)

A backup goalie

Now let's add the following to the list:

Filppula's replacement
Garrison's replacement
Condra's replacement

which makes the number either $28.85M or $27.18M depending on whether you think we'll be able to trade Filppula without retaining or we'll have to buy him out (if we trade him with retention it would likely end up between those two figures since retaining more than his buyout doesn't make sense.)

How do you see this working?

 

[PaulGG]

I don't know if that says more about us or Conacher and that's not a very comforting thought.

Cory is another competitor in camp and at this point that is all he is. Great opportunity for him to try to beat someone out for a slot and reconncect with guys he used to play well with. The young AHL guys are also in the mix and it would be miraculous if Cory makes the team. Nothing to lose for him or the team, only potential upside. Good move by Yzerman when he had virtually nothing to spend on new players.

 

[Hoek]

We need to contract all the Canadian teams. They're holding the cap back.

 

[tjs*]

Cory is another competitor in camp and at this point that is all he is. Great opportunity for him to try to beat someone out for a slot and reconncect with guys he used to play well with. The young AHL guys are also in the mix and it would be miraculous if Cory makes the team. Nothing to lose for him or the team, only potential upside. Good move by Yzerman when he had virtually nothing to spend on new players.

The only way I see Cory getting beat out of a roster spot by an AHLer is either by another relatively old player who isn't in our longterm plans or by someone who is simply significantly better and too good to keep down.

Remember, in 2017 we're going to have to replace a lot of players with cheaper alternatives and many of our AHL players will be up for new contracts that summer. And we'll also have expansion to worry about. Obviously our primary goal next season is to win the Cup and we aren't going to field an inferior team just to save some money the following year and avoid expansion issues, but if it comes down to Conacher and a young AHLer and neither player is clearly better than the other then I think Conacher gets the job. First, because Coop likes his guys and especially his veterans. Second, because why drive up the price of a young player who will likely be needed as a cheap replacement the following year when you have a 26 year old on a one-year deal who is expendable and can perform at the same level? And third, because why risk the young AHLer having a surprising breakout season and suddenly becoming a target for Vegas?

Obviously if one of our young guns clearly beats Conacher out for a roster spot then we'll go with him and worry about all that stuff later, but if it's neck and neck I think the tie goes to Cory.

 

[TampaJay]

Again, assuming no bonus overages and before we take anybody off the books besides our UFAs next summer, we'll be looking at $18M plus whatever the cap goes up by to sign the following:

Kucherov
Drouin
Johnson
Palat
Boyle (or replacement)

Sustr (or replacement)
Koekkoek
Nesterov (or replacement)

A backup goalie

Now let's add the following to the list:

Filppula's replacement
Garrison's replacement
Condra's replacement

which makes the number either $28.85M or $27.18M depending on whether you think we'll be able to trade Filppula without retaining or we'll have to buy him out (if we trade him with retention it would likely end up between those two figures since retaining more than his buyout doesn't make sense.)

How do you see this working?

People would understand you if they just did the math. CapFriendly ArmChair-GM makes it easy. Here’s a screenshot of a possible 17-18 roster.

Bishop, Filppula, Garrison, Boyle, and Condra are gone (with no retained salary). Drouin got a bridge deal (which probably won’t happen) and this doesn’t factor in the 2.9 mil in bonuses that Drouin and KK will most likely earn this year.

So, you still need to cut at least 4+ million and the only choices are Palat/Johnson/Drouin/Killorn. Take your pick.

 

[Lovethiscity]

Man... I'm gonna miss Ben

Same here my friend

 

[PaulGG]

The only way I see Cory getting beat out of a roster spot by an AHLer is either by another relatively old player who isn't in our longterm plans or by someone who is simply significantly better and too good to keep down.

Remember, in 2017 we're going to have to replace a lot of players with cheaper alternatives and many of our AHL players will be up for new contracts that summer. And we'll also have expansion to worry about. Obviously our primary goal next season is to win the Cup and we aren't going to field an inferior team just to save some money the following year and avoid expansion issues, but if it comes down to Conacher and a young AHLer and neither player is clearly better than the other then I think Conacher gets the job. First, because Coop likes his guys and especially his veterans. Second, because why drive up the price of a young player who will likely be needed as a cheap replacement the following year when you have a 26 year old on a one-year deal who is expendable and can perform at the same level? And third, because why risk the young AHLer having a surprising breakout season and suddenly becoming a target for Vegas?

Obviously if one of our young guns clearly beats Conacher out for a roster spot then we'll go with him and worry about all that stuff later, but if it's neck and neck I think the tie goes to Cory.

We will see what he brings and if he is the best option. I have not seen him play in a while and don't think he just gets a spot based upon a strategy for the future beyond 2017, without earning it. I would have no issues with the "risk" of an AHLer having a breakout season if it helps us win the Cup.

 

[tjs*]

We will see what he brings and if he is the best option. I have not seen him play in a while and don't think he just gets a spot based upon a strategy for the future beyond 2017, without earning it. I would have no issues with the "risk" of an AHLer having a breakout season if it helps us win the Cup.

Yeah, like I said those considerations would only be a tiebreaker in the event that nobody has distinguished himself as a clear winner for the roster spot.

 

[garmonbozia]

Again, assuming no bonus overages and before we take anybody off the books besides our UFAs next summer, we'll be looking at $18M plus whatever the cap goes up by to sign the following:

Kucherov
Drouin
Johnson
Palat
Boyle (or replacement)

Sustr (or replacement)
Koekkoek
Nesterov (or replacement)

A backup goalie

Now let's add the following to the list:

Filppula's replacement
Garrison's replacement
Condra's replacement

which makes the number either $28.85M or $27.18M depending on whether you think we'll be able to trade Filppula without retaining or we'll have to buy him out (if we trade him with retention it would likely end up between those two figures since retaining more than his buyout doesn't make sense.)

How do you see this working?

Yzerman is shrewd/stubborn enough to create a plan that makes it work. Further, he's shown himself adapt at changing his plans around those who don't buy in to his plan.

As nerve wracking as the negotiation periods for all our talent has been and will continue to be; Yzerman has done great so far managing the cap year to year while maximizing value. He'll find a way to move any and all of Filppula, Callahan, Boyle, Garrison, Stralman, and Coburn before being forced out of any of the core pieces left to sign (Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, and Drouin). He knows who his core is and will build around them moving forward. Bridge Kucherov and Drouin and talk Johnson and Palat into discounted deals (considering what he just signed Stamkos and Hedman for this doesn't seem unreasonable) and maybe we can keep one or two of the vets around beyond next offseason.

Expansion draft protect Stamkos, Palat, Johnson, Kucherov, Drouin, Killorn, Namestnikov, Hedman, Sustr, Koekoek, and Vasilevski. That is essentially the core moving forward (possibly keeping Stralman over Sustr). Yzerman talks his NMCs into waiving their expansion draft protection if he needs to. Las Vegas can only draft one player per team. No reason Yzerman can't make one of his salary dumps of necessity in to Las Vegas' best draftable options from the Lightning.

Sure, there will be downgrades filling in the holes on the roster and growing pains as more youth is injected in to the roster again to replace departing veterans. Losing Bishop seems suicidal. Sacrificing the veterans to pay the youth...good GMs find a way to get this done, it's just business. Yzerman has been a good GM to date. He'll figure it out.

 

[tjs*]

Yzerman is shrewd/stubborn enough to create a plan that makes it work. Further, he's shown himself adapt at changing his plans around those who don't buy in to his plan.

As nerve wracking as the negotiation periods for all our talent has been and will continue to be; Yzerman has done great so far managing the cap year to year while maximizing value. He'll find a way to move any and all of Filppula, Callahan, Boyle, Garrison, Stralman, and Coburn before being forced out of any of the core pieces left to sign (Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, and Drouin). He knows who his core is and will build around them moving forward. Bridge Kucherov and Drouin and talk Johnson and Palat into discounted deals (considering what he just signed Stamkos and Hedman for this doesn't seem unreasonable) and maybe we can keep one or two of the vets around beyond next offseason.

Expansion draft protect Stamkos, Palat, Johnson, Kucherov, Drouin, Killorn, Namestnikov, Hedman, Sustr, Koekoek, and Vasilevski. That is essentially the core moving forward (possibly keeping Stralman over Sustr). Yzerman talks his NMCs into waiving their expansion draft protection if he needs to. Las Vegas can only draft one player per team. No reason Yzerman can't make one of his salary dumps of necessity in to Las Vegas' best draftable options from the Lightning.

Sure, there will be downgrades filling in the holes on the roster and growing pains as more youth is injected in to the roster again to replace departing veterans. Losing Bishop seems suicidal. Sacrificing the veterans to pay the youth...good GMs find a way to get this done, it's just business. Yzerman has been a good GM to date. He'll figure it out.

Funny how the people who preach "Yzerman will figure it all out" only ever speak in vague generalities. Those of us who don't view everything through rose colored glasses and who have actually done the math have a much more realistic view of things, and in that realistic view we're going to be losing people we really don't want to lose.