Value of: Now how Much Would You Pay Marner

[Score8]

Draisaitl, Matthews, Barkov, McDavid, MacKinnon, Eichel are the only forwards better than Marner IMO.

Now, can Marner generate 100+ point seasons without Matthews? That remains the question.

Whenever Matthews is injured, you'll see Marner take more initiative to score, so yes, I think he can generate similar offense with subpar players.

Now he is not a selke level defender, but, make no mistake -- Marner is extremely competent in his own end. He doesn't make any mistakes, but, once again, he isn't a shutdown guy.

He is just sound defensively, meaning he is overall a net positive defensively. Not a lot forwards including Kucherov, Kaprizov, Draisaitl are as good as Marner defensively.



Now take the example on the Leafs of Nylander v Marner, Nylander is a better skater and shooter, and he's also a great playmaker.

But, what seperates Marner from Nylander, is his defensive and offensive awareness.
He will never make any mistakes defensively or offensively.

However, at times, Marner's compete level is very questionable, he lacks the desire to win and the motor of a franchise player i.e. Mcdavid/Draisaitl/Matthews etc

So all in all, I don't think to a contender he is worth 14 million, it's better spent in other facets.

Pasta is better than marner 7 days a week and twice on Sunday

 

[Eddie Munson]

Comps would be guys like Matthews, Panarin, Pastrnak, and Rantanan (looking at stats for the last 5 years).

Matthews - Cap% at signing - 15.06% or 14.39m in 25-26 dollars
Panarin - Cap% at signing - 14.29% or 13.65m in 25-26 dollars
Pastrnak - Cap% at signing - 13.47% or 12.87m in 25-26 dollars
Rantanan - Cap% at signing - 12.57% or 12m in 25-26 dollars

So he's likely going to be looking for 12-13.5m just based on comps. I think Matthews being a center makes him a more valuable piece so I don't think he gets more than 13.5m.

Is he worth it? Time will tell. His stats historically point to a player worth that type of money.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner is one of the rare elite playmaking and play driving wingers. He doesn't need to get his hands dirty, it's his linemates job to go in the trenches and get open.

3 primary assists 5v5 in last 28 games. Hardly sets his linemates up from low in zone.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Comps would be guys like Matthews, Panarin, Pastrnak, and Rantanan (looking at stats for the last 5 years).

Matthews - Cap% at signing - 15.06% or 14.39m in 25-26 dollars
Panarin - Cap% at signing - 14.29% or 13.65m in 25-26 dollars
Pastrnak - Cap% at signing - 13.47% or 12.87m in 25-26 dollars
Rantanan - Cap% at signing - 12.57% or 12m in 25-26 dollars

So he's likely going to be looking for 12-13.5m just based on comps. I think Matthews being a center makes him a more valuable piece so I don't think he gets more than 13.5m.

Is he worth it? Time will tell. His stats historically point to a player worth that type of money.

Would need to look at Pastrnak, Rantanen and Panarin's playoffs too as wingers.

Pastrnak and Rantanen perform much better than Marner.

I believe (just by memory, not looking) that Panarin does have a bit of a dip in the post-season.

 

[Habsrule]

I think he signs for 13.5 - 14 million. Call me crazy.

Some team with the cap space will lock him up big for the long term. There are two way to acquire star players without drafting them. You either sign them as a UFA or you trade for them.

If you trade for one then you are looking at giving up young roster players, top prospects and high draft picks. If you sign one then you have to over pay them.

I would rather over pay a star player by two million dollars in a rising cap world over trading for one and gutting your prospect pool.

 

[Schennanigans]

Let’s if he shows up in the playoffs. We’ll see after that.

 

[BHawk21]

This isn't really how it works. A Marner level player assumes he's still gonna be able to make good money at 35 years old.

With the 7 year deal he gets more money quicker and then gets more money in a contract a year earlier. Toronto isn't fighting $100M. They're fighting $100M plus whatever he could make in UFA a year earlier.

Marner is going into this contract assuming hes going to make good money at 35...? Disagree.

 

[waitin425]

Let’s if he shows up in the playoffs. We’ll see after that.

This we can agree on. If he wilts in the playoffs he shouldn't get a penny over 10 million.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think he signs for 13.5 - 14 million. Call me crazy.

Some team with the cap space will lock him up big for the long term. There are two way to acquire star players without drafting them. You either sign them as a UFA or you trade for them.

If you trade for one then you are looking at giving up young roster players, top prospects and high draft picks. If you sign one then you have to over pay them.

I would rather over pay a star player by two million dollars in a rising cap world over trading for one and gutting your prospect pool.

Some team will 100% offer him 14+ a year in free agency. It is going to come down to whether he wants to be a Leaf or not.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Marner is going into this contract assuming hes going to make good money at 35...? Disagree.

Taking equal money over an 8 year contract compared to 7 years is stupid. This ain't that hard to understand.

It's not $100M vs. $100M. It's $100M vs. $100M + Whatever you could make on another deal in year 8.

So yes, players and agents absolutely think about that.

 

[BHawk21]

Taking equal money over an 8 year contract compared to 7 years is stupid. This ain't that hard to understand.

It's not $100M vs. $100M. It's $100M vs. $100M + Whatever you could make on another deal in year 8.

So yes, players and agents absolutely think about that.

Naw they dont. Not for a 35 or 36 year old ufa. They get as much as they can if they go full term too many variables.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Naw they dont. Not for a 35 year old. They get as much as they can if they go full term too many variables.

True. They get as much as they can.

... But when it's equal, as you mentioned, you start considering other things. That's kinda the point.

 

[BHawk21]

True. They get as much as they can.

... But when it's equal, as you mentioned, you start considering other things. That's kinda the point.

yep u almost got it

 

[fbuford]

He's not worth a bucket of paint

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

yep u almost got it

You're right. I can't wrap my brain around your mind-numbing logic.

Imagine, as an everyday guy, being offered the same job by two employers, but one is offering you the same amount of money over less time committed, and you can't wrap your head around why this is a better offer.

 

[Eddie Munson]

Would need to look at Pastrnak, Rantanen and Panarin's playoffs too as wingers.

Pastrnak and Rantanen perform much better than Marner.

I believe (just by memory, not looking) that Panarin does have a bit of a dip in the post-season.

Panarin's P/GP nearly cut in half in the postseason. Marner, Pastrnak, Matthews all have roughly the same drop ~0.25-0.3 P/PG in the post season. Rantanan is the only one that has had consistent stats between the postseason and the regular season. Again, this is over the same 5 year look.

So still good comps IMO.

 

[Dumais]

As a CBJ fan, Yes! Whatever the number.

 

[Antropovsky]

Panarin's P/GP nearly cut in half in the postseason. Marner, Pastrnak, Matthews all have roughly the same drop ~0.25-0.3 P/PG in the post season. Rantanan is the only one that has had consistent stats between the postseason and the regular season. Again, this is over the same 5 year look.

So still good comps IMO.

Does Pastrnak play with 11.6 million dollar center and a PP with Nylander and Tavares?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Panarin's P/GP nearly cut in half in the postseason. Marner, Pastrnak, Matthews all have roughly the same drop ~0.25-0.3 P/PG in the post season. Rantanan is the only one that has had consistent stats between the postseason and the regular season. Again, this is over the same 5 year look.

So still good comps IMO.

Career playoff pt/game

Pasta 0.97 (rounded up)
Panarin 0.83
Marner 0.88 (rounded up)
Rantanen 1.25 (rounded up)

Rantanen and Pastrnak got 8 year deals and Panarin went to the actual open market and got a 7 year deal.

I'm going to argue that it's likely Marner would do best financially by re-signing with the Leafs because of the signing bonuses, endorsements and 8th year.

 

[Eddie Munson]

Career playoff pt/game

Pasta 0.97 (rounded up)
Panarin 0.83
Marner 0.88 (rounded up)
Rantanen 1.25 (rounded up)

Rantanen and Pastrnak got 8 year deals and Panarin went to the actual open market and got a 7 year deal.

I'm going to argue that it's likely Marner would do best financially by re-signing with the Leafs because of the signing bonuses, endorsements and 8th year.

Don't forget taxes. Marner making 14m in Toronto will take home probably far less than Rantanan's 12m in Dallas. There's a lot for these players to consider.

Does Pastrnak play with 11.6 million dollar center and a PP with Nylander and Tavares?

Pasta did play with two likely Hall of Famers in Krejci and Bergeron. He's certainly shown he can play without them now. Marner would still have to prove that. May give some GMs pause for concern but I doubt it makes a huge difference in what he gets on the open market.

 

[ottawa]

Marner has a full no move clause. They can’t trade him. He either signs in TO or walks July first.

Dubas truly is the gift that keeps on giving. He gave all the negotiating power to both Marner and Matthews just before he left

 

[WTFMAN99]

Don't forget taxes. Marner making 14m in Toronto will take home probably far less than Rantanan's 12m in Dallas. There's a lot for these players to consider.



Pasta did play with two likely Hall of Famers in Krejci and Bergeron. He's certainly shown he can play without them now. Marner would still have to prove that. May give some GMs pause for concern but I doubt it makes a huge difference in what he gets on the open market.

Yeah, both sets of parents are in the GTA with a kid on the way so some value there. Endorsements help, making USD but living in Canada also helps offset some things.

Leafs can also frontload the hell out of the deal for the first few years and do a bunch of signing bonuses, if they gave him like 18M for year 1 (just an example), 17M in signing bonuses, say 4M in taxes gone, 13M x 3% ROI (which is terrible but) would make him an additional 390k...compound that etc...he isn't going to stress for money.

 

[Coffee]

5th in Points
3rd in assists
Top Pk
Top PP
Plus 14
Only 27 years old

Legitimate premiere NHLer

@34 doesnt give a shit.

He wants him gone and we’re all done trying to convince him otherwise.

Whatever he can go to one of the cali teams. Don’t care at this point

 

[Antropovsky]

Don't forget taxes. Marner making 14m in Toronto will take home probably far less than Rantanan's 12m in Dallas. There's a lot for these players to consider.



Pasta did play with two likely Hall of Famers in Krejci and Bergeron. He's certainly shown he can play without them now. Marner would still have to prove that. May give some GMs pause for concern but I doubt it makes a huge difference in what he gets on the open market.

I agree someone will overpay. I just hope it's not the Leafs.

 

[Fatass]

I agree someone will overpay. I just hope it's not the Leafs.

Rangers went big on Panarin years ago. I can see them going big on Marner (15/16 x 7) this summer.