Value of: Not Many #1 Picks in Play

[Adam da bomb]

Leafs have him by the balls. He basically has said he has no interest in going anywhere else, he came here because his family is here and he has several small children growing up around family, in school, etc. If he were to go somewhere else his family would stay in Toronto.

So he can move away somewhere else for potentially an extra 2-3M a year after already having a career earning north of 110 million, or he can take under market rate, stay where he wants with trade protection, and give the team a chance to win.

And also, I won't be shocked either if the Leafs give him term. Like 6 years at 3-4M or something.

Win a 1st round.

 

[ProfessorFink22]

Leafs have him by the balls. He basically has said he has no interest in going anywhere else, he came here because his family is here and he has several small children growing up around family, in school, etc. If he were to go somewhere else his family would stay in Toronto.

So he can move away somewhere else for potentially an extra 2-3M a year after already having a career earning north of 110 million, or he can take under market rate, stay where he wants with trade protection, and give the team a chance to win.

And also, I won't be shocked either if the Leafs give him term. Like 6 years at 3-4M or something.

Respectfully, I indeed would be shocked if he signs for 3-4 million at any term. I'd need to see some concrete evidence to the contrary, from a legit source to even consider that. Or maybe a comparable, any long time, ppg players signing for 3-4 million lately?

 

[HockeyVirus]

Respectfully, I indeed would be shocked if he signs for 3-4 million at any term. I'd need to see some concrete evidence to the contrary, from a legit source to even consider that. Or maybe a comparable, any long time, ppg players signing for 3-4 million lately?

Or you can just wait and see.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Respectfully, I indeed would be shocked if he signs for 3-4 million at any term. I'd need to see some concrete evidence to the contrary, from a legit source to even consider that. Or maybe a comparable, any long time, ppg players signing for 3-4 million lately?

Tavares will be 35 to start next season.

Last year, 35 year old Patrick Kane signed for 1 year at $2.75m in Detroit. Signed another one year deal for this season at $4m + $2.5m in performance incentives.

I do agree that Tavares could probably get more than $4m on a 1 year deal, but I think he's more likely to earn $20m+ over the next 6 years if he gives the Leafs a discount and takes the LTIRetirement contract that runs until he's a few months away from his 42nd birthday.

 

[ottawagm]

We need to keep ours to pay Gary.

 

[Just Linda]

I'm pretty sure the Jets will package a first and a prospect for a 2C or RD.

Winnipeg trading for a 2C? It feels like we are on 2 decades of them doing this.

 

[HuGort]

I'm pretty sure the Jets will package a first and a prospect for a 2C or RD.

Jets don't really have many top prospects. With Mcgroarty gone and collapse of Barlow.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm pretty sure the Jets will package a first and a prospect for a 2C or RD.

Seems reasonable for sure. They do need center help or reinforcement. J Toews signs and they also go after a 2C/RD as well to really chase the cup?

 

[mm11]

Leafs have him by the balls. He basically has said he has no interest in going anywhere else, he came here because his family is here and he has several small children growing up around family, in school, etc. If he were to go somewhere else his family would stay in Toronto.

So he can move away somewhere else for potentially an extra 2-3M a year after already having a career earning north of 110 million, or he can take under market rate, stay where he wants with trade protection, and give the team a chance to win.

And also, I won't be shocked either if the Leafs give him term. Like 6 years at 3-4M or something.

To be fair. JT has a history of saying he wants to stay then doing something else. Leafs should offer league min, will answer some questions I guess

 

[Captain Mountain]

Leafs have him by the balls. He basically has said he has no interest in going anywhere else, he came here because his family is here and he has several small children growing up around family, in school, etc. If he were to go somewhere else his family would stay in Toronto.

So he can move away somewhere else for potentially an extra 2-3M a year after already having a career earning north of 110 million, or he can take under market rate, stay where he wants with trade protection, and give the team a chance to win.

And also, I won't be shocked either if the Leafs give him term. Like 6 years at 3-4M or something.

I think at that price you're basically telling him to go somewhere else, despite his ties to the team and city.

He'll take less than market value, but no amount of desire to remain with a team will make a guy take 50% of market value on that kind of term. Even Tampa offered more term when they lowballed the hell out of Stamkos.

 

[McJedi]

LA Kings 1st rounder should be in play. They are pretty good this year and could use the playoff success. Oilers are ripe for the beating in round 1. Edmonton had a much better playoff style roster a year ago than the soft, older and slower one they built this season.

I'd take Foegele and Holloway over the smaller, slower and more skilled Skinner and Arvidsson types all day in a playoff setting. Henrique and Janmark don't look anything like the players they were when the Oilers bottom six & PK played amazing in the 2024 playoffs.

Now drop a Brock Nelson, Provorov, Granlund or Marcus Pettersson onto the Kings and LA looks like they can eliminate the Oilers in April.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I think at that price you're basically telling him to go somewhere else, despite his ties to the team and city.

He'll take less than market value, but no amount of desire to remain with a team will make a guy take 50% of market value on that kind of term. Even Tampa offered more term when they lowballed the hell out of Stamkos.

So be it. I mean, what is the urgency to lock up a guy who will 35 game 1 next year? How long can the Leafs depend on him being this good? Why would they pay a premium for that when they haven't before?

Unless they win the cup and are handing out retirement deals to celebrate I am not holding my breath for them to automatically bring everyone back and run it back + pay premiums to do so. It would be the first time they had 20+M in cap space without being limited by NMC to change the team.

Let's not get too far ahead though. Still a season to play, Leafs are legit

 

[Captain Mountain]

So be it. I mean, what is the urgency to lock up a guy who will 35 game 1 next year? How long can the Leafs depend on him being this good? Why would they pay a premium for that when they haven't before?

Unless they win the cup and are handing out retirement deals to celebrate I am not holding my breath for them to automatically bring everyone back and run it back + pay premiums to do so. It would be the first time they had 20+M in cap space without being limited by NMC to change the team.

Let's not get too far ahead though. Still a season to play, Leafs are legit

There's a difference between lowballing a guy and trying to get a good deal.

And over half the NHL is going to have 15+ mil in cap space next season, cap space is not asset it was a few years ago.

 

[HockeyVirus]

There's a difference between lowballing a guy and trying to get a good deal.

And over half the NHL is going to have 15+ mil in cap space next season, cap space is not asset it was a few years ago.

So he is free to leave then? Can go play anywhere he likes. If he wants to play in Toronto, this is what we can do. Not sure why you are acting like 4M x 6 years is a slap in the face for a 35 year old JT.

 

[Captain Mountain]

So he is free to leave then? Can go play anywhere he likes. If he wants to play in Toronto, this is what we can do. Not sure why you are acting like 4M x 6 years is a slap in the face for a 35 year old JT.

Because it was a slap in the face of a 34 year old Stamkos and Marchessault last year? He's tied for 10th in goals and 30th in points, and the cap is rising. He can get a lot more on the open market.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Doubt anyone is available that would move the leafs hand ( I’m not saying he’s unavailable in general just for the projected crop of deadline players; which looks super weak )

What happens every year at the TDL is all about supply/demand. Buyers are chomping at the bit to buy and improve their team and sellers are holding for last moment to get the best return. The moment there is a player (center or D especially) available that 3-5 teams want, the price goes up. Regardless of how weak/strong it may be. Teams want the upper hand over other playoff teams they may face.

Look at Evans for example on the Habs. If he is the best center available (I don't know the list to be honest), he will gain lots of interest because teams who have a hole at 3C will want to fill it. He's great on faceoffs and just touching his prime so yeah, his price might increase due to SUPPLY/DEMAND.

The chance at adding an edge for a long playoff run is very valuable. Especially when you get that player and the team you might face does not.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Because it was a slap in the face of a 34 year old Stamkos and Marchessault last year? He's tied for 10th in goals and 30th in points, and the cap is rising. He can get a lot more on the open market.

Ok? It is his right as a player to maximize his earnings and go to whereever. We can get another 2C you know? Either via trade (as it is already speculated) and who knows how many more years at center JT has himself.

Also this year has he has been incredible but let's not pretend he hasn't been carried by Marner / Nylander for large stretches of his contract.

If he wants to stay with the Leafs, we don't see him as a superstar #2C for the duration of this contract. There is a good chance he is going to need to take on new roles and be our 3C like he was for large parts of last season, and he is going to need to learn to be effective on the wing most likely at some point. Also can't be guaranteed #1 PP unit time if he starts falling off.

That type of player is 3-4M. Once again the point is, the Leafs DO NOT NEED TO sign Tavares.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Ok? It is his right as a player to maximize his earnings and go to whereever. We can get another 2C you know? Either via trade (as it is already speculated) and who knows how many more years at center JT has himself.

Also this year has he has been incredible but let's not pretend he hasn't been carried by Marner / Nylander for large stretches of his contract.

If he wants to stay with the Leafs, we don't see him as a superstar #2C for the duration of this contract. There is a good chance he is going to need to take on new roles and be our 3C like he was for large parts of last season, and he is going to need to learn to be effective on the wing most likely at some point. Also can't be guaranteed #1 PP unit time if he starts falling off.

That type of player is 3-4M. Once again the point is, the Leafs DO NOT NEED TO sign Tavares.

I'm not sure how easy trading for a 2C will be, but 4 mil isn't superstar 2C money, its good 3C money. If you prefer giving that to a different player than fine, I just don't know why you think the Leafs "have him by the balls". He'll clearly take a discount to stay in Toronto, but LeBrun and other insiders have already talked about the ballpark of what he and the Leafs are talking about and its Giroux - Kopitar. Which is a clear discount, but far more than a 4 mil AAV.

 

[HockeyVirus]

I'm not sure how easy trading for a 2C will be, but 4 mil isn't superstar 2C money, its good 3C money. If you prefer giving that to a different player than fine, I just don't know why you think the Leafs "have him by the balls". He'll clearly take a discount to stay in Toronto, but LeBrun and other insiders have already talked about the ballpark of what he and the Leafs are talking about and its Giroux - Kopitar. Which is a clear discount, but far more than a 4 mil AAV.

If they give Tavares more than 7M it better be 2-3 years or Treliving is an idiot. But I think they go longer term less cap hit as I have said

 

[Captain Mountain]

If they give Tavares more than 7M it better be 2-3 years or Treliving is an idiot. But I think they go longer term less cap hit as I have said

Kopitar signed for 2 and Giroux signed for 3. Something like 6.75 mil x 3 seems like the market rate hometown vet discount (compared to something like 8 x 4 on the open market).

And I genuinely mean this with no offense, but I'll lean towards what reporters and insiders have been saying.

 

[DelZottoHitTheNetJK]

Rangers first round pick should literally always be in play, this organization simply cannot fathom picking an impact player in the first 10 picks of the 1st round. They have much better pro scouting and I'd be far more comfortable with them dealing that pick for a player in their D+1 or D+2 year

 

[Brodeur]

LA Kings 1st rounder should be in play. They are pretty good this year and could use the playoff success. Oilers are ripe for the beating in round 1. Edmonton had a much better playoff style roster a year ago than the soft, older and slower one they built this season.

LA is supposed to host the 2025 Draft, so I wonder if there's any pressure for them to keep that pick. I think last year that Rangers owner James Dolan wanted them to keep their 1st if possible so they could make a pick at The Sphere (which his company built). Vegas themselves also kept last year's pick but dealt future #1s for Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin.

I recall a story about Mike Keenan having a deal in place for Jason Allison circa 1995, but Blues ownership wouldn't approve the deal because it involved a 1996 1st and St. Louis was hosting. Columbus was offered the #2 pick in 2006 but part of the return would have included their 2007 1st and they were already tabbed to host. They might have turned it down anyways but their staff seemed cognizant of a worst case scenario where they hosted and forked over a high pick.

When the Devils hosted in 2013, they had a deal in place for Cory Schneider the night before the draft but they waited until they were on the clock to announce it. Seemingly they didn't want to announce it beforehand and have a chunk of local fans not show up (at that point the draft was still free to attend).

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Anyone else reminded of always sunny?