Value of: Not Many #1 Picks in Play

[Petes2424]

Will we see a different type of deadline this season, as most contenders lack a 1st Round pick??

Carolina, Washington, Dallas, Winnipeg and the Canucks, are the only teams who can turn a 2025 1st Rounder into deadline acquisitions. So does this give a team like the Jets and Stars an advantage heading into the deadline, or even into the new year?

Will we see more of what Vegas has done 2 years in a row now? Trading recent 1st Rounders like Edstrom and Zach Dean? Will they trade Trevor Connelly this year, to land their normal deadline addition?

Will the Oilers or Leafs have to part ways with O’Reilly or Danford? Do sellers even value those prospects equivalent to where they were drafted? Or do contenders reach even further into the future, trading 2026 and 2027 1st Rounders?? Does Tampa have to part ways with a Geekie to get something done? Does a team end up having to overpay for a Chiarot or Savard again?

The deadline isn’t going to de-value the compensation because some teams have already traded away so much draft capital over the years, or used those picks for under-developing prospects.

Sellers are still gonna want to get paid. If anything, it will likely add to the compensation. If the Oilers and Jets are after a retained Dman with a year left on his deal for example, does it give the Jets the advantage, or does the seller get an extra pick for taking a future Edmonton pick?

Will the small number of teams with a 1st Round Pick, like Winnipeg, Carolina and Washington have an advantage?

I’m guessing they will. What say you?

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[Spearmint Rhino]

Habs already have 2 x 2025 1sts so we will be ok with a 2026 1st for Big Play Dave

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Hate when people conflate #1 with first rounder. #1 is the number one pick of the draft. 1st rounder is someone picked in the first round. First pick for a team is the first pick regardless of round.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Hate when people conflate #1 with first rounder. #1 is the number one pick of the draft. 1st rounder is someone picked in the first round. First pick for a team is the first pick regardless of round.

Did I miss something?

 

[miscs75]

Going to be fun to see someone that no one expects going for something absurd including a 2025 1st round pick (I.e. Jeannot).

 

[shortfuze]

Did I miss something?

Apparently

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Apparently

I guess so.

Anyway, I think a lot of futures will be moved by the top teams, including 1sts and future 1sts.

Everyone else, it's a wildcard.

 

[TheBeard]

Because there's an elite top 4 I think teams are going to be reluctant to trade that opportunity. Now if it's top 5 protected then yes, but the value isn't as high.

 

[hangman005]

Those pesky first rounders.... more trouble than their worth

 

[qc14]

It's interesting, especially combined with the fact that there are very few top rentals available this year. Look at the Athletic's most recent trade board. Kris Kreider and Brandon Saad at one and two? Provorov and Pettersson the best defenceman? Unless Boston and NYI decide to actually sell on Marchand or Nelson (they won't) is there anyone out there worth giving up a first for this year?

Also Carolina, Washington, and Dallas are all notoriously pretty stingy about keeping their first rounders.

 

[Andreas Ferrari]

I'm pretty sure the Jets will package a first and a prospect for a 2C or RD.

 

[Menzinger]

Teams will trade 2026 1sts instead

 

[biturbo19]

It's interesting, especially combined with the fact that there are very few top rentals available this year. Look at the Athletic's most recent trade board. Kris Kreider and Brandon Saad at one and two? Provorov and Pettersson the best defenceman? Unless Boston and NYI decide to actually sell on Marchand or Nelson (they won't) is there anyone out there worth giving up a first for this year?

Also Carolina, Washington, and Dallas are all notoriously pretty stingy about keeping their first rounders.

Yeah. I think the relative scarcity of top-end rentals probably drives a strong "Sellers Market" on those few guys. That could potentially give teams with 2025 1st Rounders a leg up on other bidders for those few players.

But for the rest of it...i think it's going to be much more of a "depth moves" sort of deadline. Lots Bottom-6/Middle-6 depth. #4D/Bottom-Pairing defensive depth. And those aren't the sort of guys that teams typically go out and spend a 1st rounder on anyway. So the lack of 2025 1sts to dole out probably doesn't end up mattering that much in that respect.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Hate when people conflate #1 with first rounder. #1 is the number one pick of the draft. 1st rounder is someone picked in the first round. First pick for a team is the first pick regardless of round.

I prefer to call them first rounders as well

 

[HockeyVirus]

I think the Leafs are open for business. That doesn't mean they are going to make a massive trade to do it, but if one is there that makes sense they are willing to give up their top prospects in Cowan, Minten, Danford, etc and future picks (2nd this year, 2026 first, etc).

Would need to be for a top 6 center with at least a few years of term or another similar valued piece that actually impacts the roster and not just random rental 3rd line vet guy.

 

[My3Sons]

I think the Leafs are open for business. That doesn't mean they are going to make a massive trade to do it, but if one is there that makes sense they are willing to give up their top prospects in Cowan, Minten, Danford, etc and future picks (2nd this year, 2026 first, etc).

Would need to be for a top 6 center with at least a few years of term or another similar valued piece that actually impacts the roster and not just random rental 3rd line vet guy.

That sounds more like a hockey trade than a deadline type of deal. Those trades seem a bit tougher to pull off.

 

[NyQuil]

There are still a fair number of teams “in the mix” so to speak.

As teams inevitably fall off, I think the sellers pool will increase accordingly.

 

[HockeyVirus]

That sounds more like a hockey trade than a deadline type of deal. Those trades seem a bit tougher to pull off.

For sure but I think Treliving has been working on it since the offseason. There are always teams who decide to pivot and have a piece available. Like last season we saw Hertl get dealt for example they do happen.

Could even be a situation where if they would agree to extend it isn't an issue so long as it fits the cap plan going forward. Just about finding the right fits. I think Nashville if they decided to retool to get younger and Toronto are great fits together for example.

 

[creg]

I don't think there's really any circumstance in which Tampa trades Geekie unless we're targeting a huge fish like we did with Hagel. Our biggest points of weakness right now are our 3rd line wingers & our 2nd line RW (which Geekie has slotted into). Don't see us moving our 26th 1st either unless it addresses the latter.