Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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There's a potential issue with how I've been presenting the Norris trophy shares (see post #4). Recent defensemen seem to be ranked too high, and but I couldn't figure out why. For example, Chara is ranked between Chelios and Coffey. Karlsson ranks about Potvin, while Hedman and Doughty rank above Robinson and Park. None of that feels right.
The reason is, up until 1995, there were only three spots on the awards ballot. The total number of votes added up to 1.8x. (Voters were able to award 5 points to first place, 3 points to second place, and 1 point to third place. 5 + 3 + 1 = 9, and 9/5 = 1.8). From 1996 onwards, the total number of votes add up to 2.6x. Thus, there are significantly more votes to go around from 1996 onwards. I think this explains why some recent players appear to be overrated on my list.
I've scaled the data so that each year is worth the same amount. (In other words, a player's voters get scaled back by 44% after 1996 - 44% is 2.6 divided by 1.8). The main counter-argument is a unanimous win from 1995 and earlier would be worth 0.56 vote shares (1 / 1.8), and a unanimous win from 1996 and later would be worth 0.38 vote shares (1 / 2.6). So, for a player from 1996-present, a win would be worth less under this system. But, because the ballot has room for three rather than five players, that player would be able to get votes much more frequently over the course of his career.
So, for discussion purposes only, I'll present the career Norris shares under the new method:
Intuitively, these results seem to make more sense. Chara, although still an all-time great, is now clearly below Coffey and Chelios. Karlsson still looks great - but he's well below Potvin. Intuitively, this approach seems to make more sense.
The reason is, up until 1995, there were only three spots on the awards ballot. The total number of votes added up to 1.8x. (Voters were able to award 5 points to first place, 3 points to second place, and 1 point to third place. 5 + 3 + 1 = 9, and 9/5 = 1.8). From 1996 onwards, the total number of votes add up to 2.6x. Thus, there are significantly more votes to go around from 1996 onwards. I think this explains why some recent players appear to be overrated on my list.
I've scaled the data so that each year is worth the same amount. (In other words, a player's voters get scaled back by 44% after 1996 - 44% is 2.6 divided by 1.8). The main counter-argument is a unanimous win from 1995 and earlier would be worth 0.56 vote shares (1 / 1.8), and a unanimous win from 1996 and later would be worth 0.38 vote shares (1 / 2.6). So, for a player from 1996-present, a win would be worth less under this system. But, because the ballot has room for three rather than five players, that player would be able to get votes much more frequently over the course of his career.
So, for discussion purposes only, I'll present the career Norris shares under the new method:
Ray Bourque | 4.72 |
Bobby Orr | 4.23 |
Doug Harvey | 3.48 |
Nicklas Lidstrom | 3.45 |
Paul Coffey | 2.16 |
Denis Potvin | 2.02 |
Chris Chelios | 1.99 |
Pierre Pilote | 1.92 |
Al MacInnis | 1.59 |
Zdeno Chara | 1.54 |
Larry Robinson | 1.54 |
Brad Park | 1.48 |
Erik Karlsson | 1.41 |
Brian Leetch | 1.28 |
Bill Gadsby | 1.27 |
Victor Hedman | 1.19 |
Scott Stevens | 1.12 |
Chris Pronger | 1.11 |
Drew Doughty | 1.11 |
Borje Salming | 1.07 |
Red Kelly | 1.07 |
Rod Langway | 1.04 |
Tim Horton | 1.01 |
Mark Howe | 0.96 |
Shea Weber | 0.95 |
Intuitively, these results seem to make more sense. Chara, although still an all-time great, is now clearly below Coffey and Chelios. Karlsson still looks great - but he's well below Potvin. Intuitively, this approach seems to make more sense.
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