If Michigan and Georgia win their championship games, they are in. FSU, with Travis hurt, not sure the committee would want an unproven QB in the playoff. That might be a ratings nightmare.
UW/Ore winner gets in. Then, say Oregon wins, and UW is a 1 loss team, like OSU. Committee more likely to take the bigger OSU brand over UW if that is the case.
Geno isn't playing well. Not protecting the ball. For someone from the McVay tree, I don't see the same type of easy completions for 7-10 yards out of the Hawks. Plus, the run scheme is very basic, could stand some more motions.
Geno isn't it, but let's also be realistic with young QBs. Murray, D. Jones, Haskins would be in year 5. Only 1 was good though lacks desire to be great. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Hurts, that was a great QB class. Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones, only Lawrence is a lock to get his 5th year option picked up. Pickett, just average. Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis. Young, can see that he is a QB who needs help. But, let's say he does turn it around with a new HC moving forward. He has to accept that he needs help otherwise, the team can't afford one of either an OL or weapons or D for him. If guys around him go down, he can't make things happen. Stroud is excellent. Richardson, biggest guy of the group and had 2 big injuries, a Concussion and Shoulder. Concerns of a shorter career if this continues. Levis, you see the physical skills and toughness in the pocket, but see the poor decision making as well at times.
Williams, Maye, I don't see Seattle having a shot at them. Penix, McCarthy, Nix, Daniels, not sure any would ever be better than 2022 Geno.
In hindsight, maybe last draft was the year to go big if they eyed Stroud. Cost of the 5th pick Witherspoon, likely a WR (most likely DK), SEA's 2nd in 2024, and Sea's 1st in 2023. (knocking a 2nd from 2025 given that pick 5 is worth more than pick 9. Maybe a 3rd or 4th needs to go the other way in place of that 2nd.) But, honestly, Stroud has played way better than I thought he would.