Player Discussion: Noah Dobson

[Chapin Landvogt]

his asking price isnt that far off from where he was projected to end up (10/10.5)

if the isles are more comfortable at 9/9.5 the common ground isnt that far of a reach .

Oh, jeez, I hope Darche isn't gonna view that number as one he's comfortable with.

 

[Fantom]

If it’s common knowledge that Dobson is asking for $11M/yr, he already tanked his trade value. Who else do you think will pay him that much? Any trade Darche makes now for Dobson will come up short of fair value.

yikes is asking for 11M ?

 

[Fantom]

Dobson is worth no more than $8.5M per season. That is also factoring in the cap going up a lot.

i tend to agree with you here i would even say 8M

 

[miscs75]

i tend to agree with you here i would even say 8M

Cap going up means his $11m AAV is 9.69% when the cap is at its projected highest in 2027. It's the equivalent of $9.2055m AAV with next years cap of $95.5m. Ultimately $9.2 isn't bad if he's back to his 23-24 form and is actually a discount compared to what some other guys will get that are in that tier of defenseman.

 

[seafoam]

Cap going up means his $11m AAV is 9.69% when the cap is at its projected highest in 2027. It's the equivalent of $9.2055m AAV with next years cap of $95.5m. Ultimately $9.2 isn't bad if he's back to his 23-24 form and is actually a discount compared to what some other guys will get that are in that tier of defenseman.

The issue is Dobson had his 70 point season when Mayfield played 41 games with one ankle and Pulock played 58 games. The next highest scoring defenseman that year was Mike Reilly with 24 points in 59 games. No other defenseman aside from Romanov played more than 60 games that season.

 

[Throttle]

Cap going up means his $11m AAV is 9.69% when the cap is at its projected highest in 2027. It's the equivalent of $9.2055m AAV with next years cap of $95.5m. Ultimately $9.2 isn't bad if he's back to his 23-24 form and is actually a discount compared to what some other guys will get that are in that tier of defenseman.

And if he players like crap defensively like he has the past two years, including under Roy, and only gets 55 points, how’s that working out? Bad, bad, and bad. Like Darnell Nurse bad - think EDM wants that contract right now? Even with the cap going up? Heck no.

 

[miscs75]

And if he players like crap defensively like he has the past two years, including under Roy, and only gets 55 points, how’s that working out? Bad, bad, and bad. Like Darnell Nurse bad - think EDM wants that contract right now? Even with the cap going up? Heck no.

Still gong to take more than an offer with minimal quality for him to be moved right now.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

Kind of settled on trading him for Peterka+. Let Buffalo reshape their D, trade Byram for X and trade JJP for Dobson.

I really wish it worked out at a good number because I liked the idea of him on pair two for years and Schaeffer on one, thought that's a winning ticket but even with the cap rising, which means you need to start swallowing tough pills on contracts, I have a hard time giving a big ticket to a guy that hasn't earned it in playoffs.

When some of these teams give out these contracts instead of bridging to young players I feel like they miss out on a key evaluation of signing someone long term which is being a playoff factor.

So give me a talented forward.

 

[beach]

 

[Glorydays22]

Kind of settled on trading him for Peterka+. Let Buffalo reshape their D, trade Byram for X and trade JJP for Dobson.

I really wish it worked out at a good number because I liked the idea of him on pair two for years and Schaeffer on one, thought that's a winning ticket but even with the cap rising, which means you need to start swallowing tough pills on contracts, I have a hard time giving a big ticket to a guy that hasn't earned it in playoffs.

When some of these teams give out these contracts instead of bridging to young players I feel like they miss out on a key evaluation of signing someone long term which is being a playoff factor.

So give me a talented forward.

Even thought JJP is good, in my mind. It can't be a 1 for 1 deal. Stilll think Buffalo needs to add.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

Even thought JJP is good, in my mind. It can't be a 1 for 1 deal. Stilll think Buffalo needs to add.

Agreed wholeheartedly. Dobson is older, but his career high as a dman is higher than JJP.

 

[doublechili]

How come the draft thread is full of Hagens posts, but no one is suggesting a trade involving Dobson and Pinto?

 

[Glorydays22]

How come the draft thread is full of Hagens posts, but no one is suggesting a trade involving Dobson and Pinto?

That Iong Island boy's ship has sailed....Maybe he can put a bet in with his bookie - 7-1 the isles get Hagens.

 

[saintunspecified]

These salary projections/limitations, etc. seem irrelevant. imo if you don't want to pay Dobson between 10-11 over 8 years, you don't want to pay Dobson at all. And the same thing goes for any other team. Sounds to me like y'all don't want Dobson at all. Even though Dobson has his warts, other than the Makars and Heiskenens of the league, there aren't many defenders who don't have warts. Have you all watched Dahlin?

I also don't see the draft as a deadline for dealing Dobson. More likely than not, teams who really want to acquire him will not offer top-8 picks, and most people here connect dealing Dobson with dealing for the opportunity to pick Hagens. I don't think that will happen. However if Dobson isn't dealt by July 4th, I feel pretty confident they'll intend to sign him.

I really like Peterka, but I also think that 23 year old break out wingers are exactly the kind of player that a team that is looking to jump from rebuilding to being competitive OR a contender would want. With players like Dobson, Robertson, Peterka, etc. on the market, imo there is real potential for 3 team deals, but they'll be impossible to predict.

 

[Menwithouthat tricks]

Not unrelated - Edmonton just traded Evander Kane to Vancouver for a 4th round draft pick, mainly so that Bouchard can get paid. I'm sure the Isles would love to retain Dobson, whether at $9 million or $10 million, but the Isles would then have to dump about $5 million in cap space just to fill out their team, and they're still short at 2C.

 

[Throttle]

Not unrelated - Edmonton just traded Evander Kane to Vancouver for a 4th round draft pick, mainly so that Bouchard can get paid. I'm sure the Isles would love to retain Dobson, whether at $9 million or $10 million, but the Isles would then have to dump about $5 million in cap space just to fill out their team, and they're still short at 2C.

Bowman probably trade Kane bc he proved to be a dumbass in the Finals, hurting his team.

Sure, it opens cap space, but it’s probably a 50/50 on the reason why.

 

[Glorydays22]

You know, not for nothing....I'm in agreement that paying Dobson 10M is a tough pill to swallow but maybe not.....here's a little tid bit

Dobson - 25yrs old - In the last 4 years, he's averaging 52.25 points per year on one of the worst offesnive teams during that time.

Bouchard - 25 yrs old - In the last 4 years, he's averaging 58 pts - playing with the 2 best offesive players in the league by far......

Food for thought

 

[Chardo]

One of the hardest commodities to find is a puck moving right defenseman who scores 50+ points. Every team clamors for one, and pays richly for them. Islanders already have one, just entering his prime. You don't trade that away for cap space. This is what you use your cap space for.

 

[Throttle]

You know, not for nothing....I'm in agreement that paying Dobson 10M is a tough pill to swallow but maybe not.....here's a little tid bit

Dobson - 25yrs old - In the last 4 years, he's averaging 52.25 points per year on one of the worst offesnive teams during that time.

Bouchard - 25 yrs old - In the last 4 years, he's averaging 58 pts - playing with the 2 best offesive players in the league by far......

Food for thought

Your average is skewed bc when getting 70 points he played 1500 minutes, outside his range of 1250-1350 that’s netting a 45ish point guy.

 

[seafoam]

Paying Dobson 10M per throws off the heirarchy for when Schaefer comes off his ELC.

 

[Glorydays22]

Your average is skewed bc when getting 70 points he played 1500 minutes, outside his range of 1250-1350 that’s netting a 45ish point guy.

Listen, for me it's not sign Dobson at any cost. But I will say, you better get a haul for him. Trading a 25 yr old Dman like him can throw us even further back into a rebuild. Our defense sucks already, remove him...we are probably the worst d-core in the league....We are trying to move off guys like Mayfield and Pelech which make sense... so with that, you comfortable with having your d-core with the likes of Boqvist, Perunovich in our everyday lineup? Woof