Value of: - Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade | Page 8 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
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Value of: Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade

Juxtaposer said:
Again, you aren’t getting it. Dobson doesn’t have to sign for anything less than the $10M he wants. It’s not just having a contract agreed upon, it’s having a contract that actually provides value.

Let’s do a thought exercise. If Dobson were a UFA right now, what is the maximum contract you’d be willing to offer him?
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That's not the right question. The right question is...

If Dobson was a UFA right now, what it the highest AAV he would get from all the teams bidding on him?

A fan value of any player matters not. Most of us never would have given Darnell Nurse or Elias Petterson those insane contracts...But teams did. And most of the league is not only looking to get better, but even more to the point - Most would want...

  • A right shot defenseman
  • With 1st pairing upside
  • Who's already had a 70 point season
  • On one of the lowest scoring teams in the league
  • And who's only 25.

Also consider the cap is going to be going up for the next few years. What is 10M today is really going to be like 7.5M in a few years.

Taking everything into account to me the floor for Dobson right now is the Brock Nelson return (a 1st round pick and top prospect). If the Isles cannot get that then they should keep him.
 
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Juxtaposer said:
You’re selling me on the idea that he’ll get more value in a trade than Timo Meier did. I’m strictly talking about trade value right now.
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Simple terms, yes based on his age and position being a premium across the league. Teams value higher end RHD towards the top along with top 6 centers. He’s still under team control for an additional year for whoever acquires him.
 
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periferal said:
That's not the right question. The right question is...

If Dobson was a UFA right now, what it the highest AAV he would get from all the teams bidding on him?

A fan value of any player matters not. Most of us never would have given Darnell Nurse or Elias Petterson those insane contracts...But teams did. And most of the league is not only looking to get better, but even more to the point - Most would want...

  • A right shot defenseman
  • With 1st pairing upside
  • Who's already had a 70 point season
  • On one of the lowest scoring teams in the league
  • And who's only 25.

Also consider the cap is going to be going up for the next few years. What is 10M today is really going to be like 7.5M in a few years.

Taking everything into account to me the floor for Dobson right now is the Brock Nelson return (a 1st round pick and top prospect). If the Isles cannot get that then they should keep him.
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That’s literally where I was going. The point is that at the value he would garner in UFA, he is worth nothing in a trade. So his value in a trade to a team acquiring him would depend on how much better the contract they can sign him to is than what he would get on the free market.

I have said all along that if Dobson gets moved this summer, it will be for the Timo Meier package: young NHLer, B+ tier prospect, late 1st round pick. Isles fans in this thread have been proposing top-5 picks or top-15 picks plus multiple A tier prospects. That’s why I made the comment that Isles fans are overrating his value by a ton…

miscs75 said:
Simple terms, yes based on his age and position being a premium across the league. Teams value higher end RHD towards the top along with top 6 centers. He’s still under team control for an additional year for whoever acquires him.
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Power forwards are also highly valued across the league. If traded, the Dobson return will be very similar to the Timo Meier return. Meier also had an additional year under team control when he was traded.
 
Junohockeyfan said:
What happened to Alex Turcotte? Si highly touted and can’t produce anything of note in the league.
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He got mono in his D+1 year and missed a lot of time, then had 3 major concussions that killed his development. When he is healthy he has looked good in the AHL and NHL last season, but minor injuries here and there slowed his consistent ice time down.

He started the year as 4C with another rookie Andre Lee as his LW and the ghost of Trevor Lewis on his RW. When LA got hit with some injuries last season he got time on line 1 with Kopitar and Kempe, he really started to show why he was a top pick. Then he got hurt and missed a couple of weeks, then came back to a fully healthy team and was put on the 4th line again, but this time he was RW with rookie center Helenius and LW Jeannot. That line was on fire to end the year until Jeannot got hurt. The Kings brought up AHL journeyman Malott to bring some toughness to the lineup for playoffs. Hiller didn't trust an AHL winger and 2 rookies to go against McDavid and Draisaitl so he rarely used the 4th line and it lead to the Kings demise.

Hiller never trusted any rookie last year as you can see how he used Clarke and Spence (not really a rookie but a young guy). Heck, Akil Thomas made the team and only got 25 games as a 4th line winger for like 3 mins a game. He is a bad coach that only likes his vets and wants the team to play more defensive than offensive which hurts the prospects that have actually broke into the NHL recently.

LA will trade Turcotte and if he stays healthy will flourish wherever he goes and it will be another Kings draft pick that plays better away from the Kings shitshow of an organization.

Edit: so this isn't off topic. LA shouldn't be moving Clarke for Dobson. If LA was trading for Dobson it would be that he and Clarke would be LA's future on the right side after Doughty retires. But LA doesn't have the movable assets to afford Dobson unless they offersheet him to an overpriced contract that he isn't worth.
 
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Anaheim4ever said:
Aren't the Islanders starting to rebuild based on them being an old roster that missed the playoffs ? They should be looking at prospects and draft picks and getting into the race for McKenna/Lin 2026 sweepstakes and Dupont 2027. They do not look like they are a Peterka away from being a cup contender.

We are done rebuilding after 6 years and willing to trade picks snd prospects for upgrade and take on salary of expensive talented players.
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Isles (Darche) has stated they are going to re-tool and he mentioned the core is Barzal, Horvat, Dobson, Romanov and Sorokin.....So teams will need to blow the socks off Darche to get Dobson.
 
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