Value of: Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade

[Wayfarer13]

Dobson and Zegras situations have nothing to do with each other.

A little bit more than the second offer will require MTL to give up something of significant value.

I would expect that to be true that it will take a bit more than a second to do a deal for Dobson. A year ago on here what Zegras ended up bringing would have been called heresy.`Not saying that is what Dobson would end up returning but I can give you path where that kind of trade format could occur. What is he worth? A little bit more than the second best offer on the table to which do you agree?

 

[impaaaaaact]

I would expect that to be true that it will take a bit more than a second to do a deal for Dobson. A year ago on here what Zegras ended up bringing would have been called heresy.`Not saying that is what Dobson would end up returning but I can give you path where that kind of trade format could occur. What is he worth? A little bit more than the second best offer on the table to which do you agree?

Sure, but it's nowhere near Zegras' value. Dobson is a 6'4 RHD that has outscore Zegras for his entire tenure as an NHL player. As a defenseman.

So yes, sure, the Islanders will take the best deal just like Anaheim did. No, their values have absolutely nothing to do with each other

 

[Wayfarer13]

Sure, but it's nowhere near Zegras' value. Dobson is a 6'4 RHD that has outscore Zegras for his entire tenure as an NHL player. As a defenseman.

So yes, sure, the Islanders will take the best deal just like Anaheim did. No, their values have absolutely nothing to do with each other

I buy and sell as a hobby and have made enough deals over the years and there is nothing cooler than standing around a wagon listening to a bunch old farmers talk. Several points influence a sale which include Motivation of the buyer-seller, asking price, offering, the price-cost tipping point of sale, any other competitive offers and timing. This is the same for both players. Sometimes it to the benefit of the seller and sometimes to is to the benefit of the buyer.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Kyrou

No indication he would be per management. Doesn't make any sense to trade him at the moment either. Young core just made playoffs, moving the top goal scorer who's locked up through a large cap increase would be pretty dumb to do.

Alot of fan speculation on it though due to his NTC kicking in soon and since he isn't an overly physical player.

 

[impaaaaaact]

I buy and sell as a hobby and have made enough deals over the years and there is nothing cooler than standing around a wagon listening to a bunch old farmers talk. Several points influence a sale which include Motivation of the buyer-seller, asking price, offering, the price-cost tipping point of sale, any other competitive offers and timing. This is the same for both players. Sometimes it to the benefit of the seller and sometimes to is to the benefit of the buyer.

Cool man!

 

[Glorydays22]

That’s pretty rough for the Blues - very rough. You don’t rob Peter to pay Paul with where the Blues are at and trading Kyrou and adding Dobson is taking 2 steps forward and 2 and a half back accounting for what the likely cap hits will be of each. Blues don’t need a shakeup they need to add to the core.

Virtually 0 reason to add in Faulk if you’re going at 50% especially if you’re taking on Mayfield at essentially the same cap hit.

I think there’s a deal to work for Dobson and in a perfect world it would revolve around Faulk + Bolduc and a few other pieces with Bolduc being the centerpiece which he should be. 21 year old who scored at .5 ppg in a pretty limited role with non scoring line mates there’s a very easy pathway to him being a top 6 player as early as next year.

no thanks, if the isles wanted to deal with St. Louis, Kyrou has to be in the deal. I don't like Dean, would want a different prospect too.

 

[jkutswings]

I don't love it but I guess the value isn't far off. Not high on Danielson or Berggren personally

Would this be any better?

To DET: Dobson

To NYI: 13 overall, Rasmussen, ASP, Lombardi

That's a highly regarded offensive defenseman prospect in ASP and Lombardi is a different style of center than Danielson.

 

[miscs75]

Would this be any better?

To DET: Dobson

To NYI: 13 overall, Rasmussen, ASP, Lombardi

That's a highly regarded offensive defenseman prospect in ASP and Lombardi is a different style of center than Danielson.

Rasmussen still has too much term. There’s too many players on the roster currently with 3 years (or more) with term right now. The plan is to have expiring guys to become a stopgap so the kids have an actual route to play. I’d rather take on Holl or Chairot if we have to take a contract back. Only way the Isles take on a guy like Rasmussen is if Engvall goes the other way.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Would this be any better?

To DET: Dobson

To NYI: 13 overall, Rasmussen, ASP, Lombardi

That's a highly regarded offensive defenseman prospect in ASP and Lombardi is a different style of center than Danielson.

As Miscs said, we don’t need an RHD back, esp if ASP is in the deal.

That being said, I know he’s dynamic but the smolness scares me. What about 13, ASP, Danielson?

 

[JediOrderPizza]

As Miscs said, we don’t need an RHD back, esp if ASP is in the deal.

That being said, I know he’s dynamic but the smolness scares me. What about 13, ASP, Danielson?

I'm out on that, too rich.

 

[go4hockey]

With the Islanders naming their new GM from the Lightning, I wanted to look at the possibility of trading Dobson through the lens of the Sergachev return. They received a high end on-the-cusp prospect, a good young NHL player, a 2nd, and lots of cap space (which helped them sign Guentzel).

Assuming Dobson signs around 9x7, are the following proposals comparable to that trade, and do you think your team would be interested? Add/subtract picks as needed:

Utah: Hayton, Lamereaux, 2nd

Dallas: Bourque, Bischel

Seattle: Wright, Nelson, 1st

LA: Clarke, Turcotte

Please take LA out. I wouldn’t move Clarke for him 1-1 and you think we add.

 

[go4hockey]

Wouldnt it make sense to Buffalo for Byram + ?

At some point Buffalo needs to bring in defensemen that can defend.

 

[seafoam]

Would this be any better?

To DET: Dobson

To NYI: 13 overall, Rasmussen, ASP, Lombardi

That's a highly regarded offensive defenseman prospect in ASP and Lombardi is a different style of center than Danielson.

NYI takes that an runs IMO.

 

[BleedBlue14]

no thanks, if the isles wanted to deal with St. Louis, Kyrou has to be in the deal. I don't like Dean, would want a different prospect too.

That's completely fine maybe look at re-signing him then, I'm just pinpointing what probably makes sense for the Blues to move while still needing to pay Dobson a fairly risky contract.

 

[Glorydays22]

That's completely fine maybe look at re-signing him then, I'm just pinpointing what probably makes sense for the Blues to move while still needing to pay Dobson a fairly risky contract.

No I get it...just telling you what we would need to move Dobson, if they isles did want to move him. I rather sign him myself. I'm pretty confident 9.5M for 8 years gets it done for us

 

[BleedBlue14]

No I get it...just telling you what we would need to move Dobson, if they isles did want to move him. I rather sign him myself. I'm pretty confident 9.5M for 8 years gets it done for us

I'd be surprised if he signed anywhere under 10m AAV. Part of the reason why I don't think it makes any sense to move Kyrou for him aside from the context that moving Kyrou leaves us with Thomas' line and then a boat load of quality youth but unproven youth following him up.

I don't see many teams that are going to trade a guy locked up prior to the cap rising for a similar tier player and have to go through the negotiating stages again unless they have a massive surplus right now. Especially a team that's on an upward swing. You could maybe find a team that's in need of a shakeup like a Detroit or a Buffalo - but I'm not sure Buffalo should be adding an offensively tilted defenseman with what they have. Detroit may be a bit more desperate there - and I'm sure there's a couple of dark horse teams. Blues are in a really good position to add a Dobson, I'm just not sure they're desperate enough to pay a king's ransom and then take on the risk of the contract that Dobson will probably have the right to ask for.

 

[impaaaaaact]

Please take LA out. I wouldn’t move Clarke for him 1-1 and you think we add.

No

 

[impaaaaaact]

I'm out on that, too rich.

Had to try lol

 

[BelovedIsles]

If I’m trading Dobson I don’t want futures. I want a player who can step in now and help the cause, eg top-line winger.

 

[Mike Liut]

If I’m trading Dobson I don’t want futures. I want a player who can step in now and help the cause, eg top-line winger.

I doubt most Blues fans would, but I’d be willing to offer their #1 prospect Dvorsky. He’s probably a year away. It would be a 1:1 trade contingent on Dobson signing a long term deal.

 

[Petes2424]

Would this be any better?

To DET: Dobson

To NYI: 13 overall, Rasmussen, ASP, Lombardi

That's a highly regarded offensive defenseman prospect in ASP and Lombardi is a different style of center than Danielson.

We can’t forget the arbitration piece in all of this, and how much control that gives Dobson. He didn’t change to Muldaver as his agent for nothing. He’s 100% helping to pick his destination. That said, if he likes his fit in Detroit, you can likely get the deal done with the 13th OVR pick and ASP. Maybe even ASP and next year’s protected 1st.

We’re not where we are without the Isles refusing to give him a long term deal before he hit arbitration. Like BUF and the Rangers with Byram and Miller, the Isles lost value by NOT trading him by the TDL.

NHL teams are petrified to allow someone like Byram or Dobson to get in front of an arbitrator. In Dobson’s case, he could end up with a 1 year $9.5-10 million deal, and walk himself wherever he’d like next summer.

Teams gave all those long term wealth contracts to unproven Dmen.

Every other team knows this. He and his agent know this. Same deal with Byram. If either pulls a Debrincat, that’s about the return we’re gonna see, and Byram or Dobson will be playing for the exact team of their choice. The Islanders can tell you. They were the team that Debrincat told he would only negotiate with Detroit. They told Ottawa too, but they thought maybe after talking to the Isles, he’d change his mind. Lou was so mad at them for wasting his time, he leaked it, and Debrincat was in Detroit 4-5 days later, for a late 1st, a bottom 6 player, and a B prospect.

The aisles would be very smart trying to keep Dobson’s wishes private, but the other managers aren’t stupid. They’ll give them a fair deal, knowing they’re not going to bid against themselves. The worst thing they can do, is try misleading teams. They 100% need to let teams talk to Muldaver, or this thing will start to stretch into the summer and they’ll end up with far less.

Dobson holds all the cards. Just as Byram does, and Miller does to a lessor extent.

 

[Glorydays22]

We can’t forget the arbitration piece in all of this, and how much control that gives Dobson. He didn’t change to Muldaver as his agent for nothing. He’s 100% helping to pick his destination. That said, if he likes his fit in Detroit, you can likely get the deal done with the 13th OVR pick and ASP. Maybe even ASP and next year’s protected 1st.

We’re not where we are without the Isles refusing to give him a long term deal before he hit arbitration. Like BUF and the Rangers with Byram and Miller, the Isles lost value by NOT trading him by the TDL.

NHL teams are petrified to allow someone like Byram or Dobson to get in front of an arbitrator. In Dobson’s case, he could end up with a 1 year $9.5-10 million deal, and walk himself wherever he’d like next summer.

Teams gave all those long term wealth contracts to unproven Dmen.

Every other team knows this. He and his agent know this. Same deal with Byram. If either pulls a Debrincat, that’s about the return we’re gonna see, and Byram or Dobson will be playing for the exact team of their choice. The Islanders can tell you. They were the team that Debrincat told he would only negotiate with Detroit. They told Ottawa too, but they thought maybe after talking to the Isles, he’d change his mind. Lou was so mad at them for wasting his time, he leaked it, and Debrincat was in Detroit 4-5 days later, for a late 1st, a bottom 6 player, and a B prospect.

The aisles would be very smart trying to keep Dobson’s wishes private, but the other managers aren’t stupid. They’ll give them a fair deal, knowing they’re not going to bid against themselves. The worst thing they can do, is try misleading teams. They 100% need to let teams talk to Muldaver, or this thing will start to stretch into the summer and they’ll end up with far less.

Dobson holds all the cards. Just as Byram does, and Miller does to a lessor extent.

Just my opinion, I dont like ASP and honestly I don't see a match with Det. Now Dobson may think he holds all the cards but his argument is weak. His new agent is the same as Bouchard. Bouchard has come out in the media stating he wants 10M for 8 years. No way in hell Dobson has a case to get more. Dobson was just reaching for a pie in the sky, but once Bouchard came out with his numbers, Dobson was screwed. At the end, isles will sign him for 9.5M for 8. The one that really everyone needs to look at being dealt this offseason for the isles is Romanov with us signing Dobson and drafting Schaeffer.

 

[Rasp]

Pick 10 + Zellweger/Helleson

Would this get it done?

 

[Glorydays22]

Pick 10 + Zellweger/Helleson

Would this get it done?

any deal for Dobson for me starts with McTavish. I want a proven young forward for him. Not looking for another Defenseman for Dobson.

 

[Xanadude]

I think it depends on what NYI's outlook is with Darche. Are they trying to get back in the playoffs or do a 2-3 year rebuild? Are they shopping Dobson because Dobson wants out, or that they aren't willing or able to pay him what he wants? Hard to tell as someone who doesn't follow NYI. And even then, there are a handful of teams that have room for Dobson too, but would he sign in those cities? Is he chasing a bag, willing to play for a team on the rise like Anaheim or my Blues or is he wanting a cup sooner rather than later?

As a Blues fan I'd hope a Bolduc + first + B prospect/roster salary dump package would be enough if Dobson forces Darche's hand (as others said, think of all the hullabaloo about Zegras...and then what he went for), but I may be in a minority where I would live with Kyrou for an extended Dobson. It creates new roster issues to handle for the Blues, but guys like Dobson simply don't end up on the trading block very often and I think he and Broberg would be an incredible d-pairing for the next decade.