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Value of: Noah Dobson, based on Sergachev Trade

impaaaaaact

impaaaaaact

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Jan 14, 2014
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With the Islanders naming their new GM from the Lightning, I wanted to look at the possibility of trading Dobson through the lens of the Sergachev return. They received a high end on-the-cusp prospect, a good young NHL player, a 2nd, and lots of cap space (which helped them sign Guentzel).

Assuming Dobson signs around 9x7, are the following proposals comparable to that trade, and do you think your team would be interested? Add/subtract picks as needed:

Utah: Hayton, Lamereaux, 2nd

Dallas: Bourque, Bischel

Seattle: Wright, Nelson, 1st

LA: Clarke, Turcotte
 
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impaaaaaact said:
With the Islanders naming their new GM from the Lightning, I wanted to look at the possibility of trading Dobson through the lens of the Sergachev return. They received a high end on-the-cusp prospect, a good young NHL player, a 2nd, and lots of cap space (which helped them sign Guentzel).

Are the following proposals comparable to that trade, and do you think your team would be interested? Add/subtract picks as needed:

Utah: Hayton, Lamereaux, 2nd

Dallas: Bourque, Bischel

Seattle: Wright, Nelson, 1st

LA: Clarke, Turcotte
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As an isles fan

Yes to the Utah deal

No to all the others
Dallas - don't like Bourque
Seattle - don't like Nelson
LA - don't like either of them, not for Dobson.
 
Probably a good comparable. I prefer Sergachev to Dobson, but the RH shot is a sufficient advantage that on a similar contract they’re equivalent. One big advantage with Sergachev is he was signed to 7x$8.5M when moved. If Dobson goes arbitration, or he demands an 8x$10M (or worse 4x$9M), I do think his value is reduced.

For a similar style deal I’d offer Ferraro+Bystedt/Musty+DAL 1st but Moser has more value than Ferraro (he was three years younger, Ferraro is 26 but a pending UFA) and Geekie has more value than Bystedt or Musty. I’d keep adding, but wouldn’t be heartbroken to miss out on Dobson either.

I think Wright has more value than Dobson straight up. On the flip side, not sure the Utah deal is enough though I do like Lamoreaux. Also think they need Cs more. Dallas needs RHD but not one at Dobson’s price point. Adding him might require the loss of key forward (without adding cap they might lose all three of Granny, Marchment, and Duchene).
 
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The Utah deal doesn't take into account Utah's needs.

I don't really see Dobson as a trade target for Utah. Maybe build something around Durzi+ for Dobson and that would make a little more sense from Utah's POV
 
stl76 said:
Very different contract situation between Sergachev when he was traded and Dobson currently. Feels like OP is not accounting for this…
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This is assuming Dobson will sign with the team he is trading for or else they wouldn’t be talking trade at all. I thought that would be obvious, but I can edit it into the OP.

Sergachev was at 8.5x7 at the time of trade I believe. Dobson is looking to be around 9x7 with a rising cap. Contracts are extremely comparable.
 
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matt trick said:
Probably a good comparable. I prefer Sergachev to Dobson, but the RH shot is a sufficient advantage that on a similar contract they’re equivalent. One big advantage with Sergachev is he was signed to 7x$8.5M when moved. If Dobson goes arbitration, or he demands an 8x$10M (or worse 4x$9M), I do think his value is reduced.

For a similar style deal I’d offer Ferraro+Bystedt/Musty+DAL 1st but Moser has more value than Ferraro (he was three years younger, Ferraro is 26 but a pending UFA) and Geekie has more value than Bystedt or Musty. I’d keep adding, but wouldn’t be heartbroken to miss out on Dobson either.

I think Wright has more value than Dobson straight up. On the flip side, not sure the Utah deal is enough though I do like Lamoreaux. Also think they need Cs more. Dallas needs RHD but not one at Dobson’s price point. Adding him might require the loss of key forward (without adding cap they might lose all three of Granny, Marchment, and Duchene).
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I was trying to think of a similar deal with SJ, but at the end of the day what stands out would be something around Dobson/Eklund
 
impaaaaaact said:
I understand if RHD isn't a point of need for Utah, but I don't consider any of those players to be on the same level as Dobson.
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The point is, there is zero reason to “upgrade” a position that is not a position of weakness. Especially if you are subtracting from a position of actual weakness like center with Hayton or the 4th overall, which is likely used to draft a center.
 
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Jormungandr said:
The point is, there is zero reason to “upgrade” a position that is not a position of weakness. Especially if you are subtracting from a position of actual weakness like center with Hayton or the 4th overall, which is likely used to draft a center.
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That's fair. I guess in my mind I didn't see C as a position of weakness for Utah, having Cooley already, Iginla on the way and then likely a choice of Desnoyers, Hagens, and Frondell coming soon. But I understand what you're saying, that's not the place where you would upgrade.
 
Wouldn’t it seem that St. Louis would be more likely to want a high-end PMD who also happens to be a right shot then some of those other teams?
 
I don't think Seattle would trade Shane Wright straight up for Dobson.

You also have to consider that Dobson's new contract is going to discourage a lot of buyers. L.A. for example would rather gamble on Clarke's development than fork over their cap flexibility for Dobson.
 
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impaaaaaact said:
I understand if RHD isn't a point of need for Utah, but I don't consider any of those players to be on the same level as Dobson.
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Sure, Dobson is better offensively. But is he closer to the 40- 50 point guy and not the 70 point guy? What is his next contract? And he would not be on the first pair with Sergachev so on Utah he would be the 2nd pair RHD.
 
Chainshot said:
Wouldn’t it seem that St. Louis would be more likely to want a high-end PMD who also happens to be a right shot then some of those other teams?
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They have a bunch of pieces that I think would interest NYI (Neighbours, Holloway, Bolduc, Snuggerud, Dvorsky).
 
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impaaaaaact said:
That's fair. I guess in my mind I didn't see C as a position of weakness for Utah, having Cooley already, Iginla on the way and then likely a choice of Desnoyers, Hagens, and Frondell coming soon. But I understand what you're saying, that's not the place where you would upgrade.
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I don’t think anyone is expecting Iginla to be a center. Cole Beaudoin is the only center prospect of note in the system, and he’s likely a 4c. Cooley is looking great and looks like a future 1c. But Hayton should be knocked down a line to 3c, not the 2c he has been playing in Utah. After that it’s a pair of 4cs in Stenlund and McBain. I love them both but they have their limitations. Not to mention McBain has been playing wing a lot lately.
 
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The Isles shed Nelson and Palmeri's contracts. Likely to move 1 or all 3 of Lee/Pageau/Cziskas in the off-season. Aside from Dobson, I don't see anyone else due for a big contract on the roster.

Only reason to move Dobson is because of the direction of the club and Dobson not wanting to be a part of that direction. He's a year out of UFA, so the Isles taking steps back for a couple of years may not interest him. I'm sure the Isles would prefer to move one of their trio of 30 something year old veteran Dmen who have term over either Dobson/Romanov. But, up to Darche to decide that.

Isles need a refresh of the roster. They have a gap with how few draft picks they have through the 202X's plus some disappointing selections in the late 201X that didn't pan out for them.
 
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