Noah Cates next contract

[FlyguyOX]

What are thinking?

Long term vs short?

I think you obviously want to go medium-long term here, but Evolving Hockey contract projections has that at a slim chance. They think 2x2.2 is most likely, followed by 3x3 and 4x3.6.

Those comps are probably based on a guy like JT Compher who is about to wrap up a 4x3.5 contract. I'd be more than ok with that contract.

I know I'm the outlier on this forum about this, but I'd be ok with giving him the Kotkaniemi contract too which is 8x4.8. That looks like fine/good value for Carolina and Cates should be in the same type of role going forward as Kotka. EH has his projected cap hit for 7 and 8 years as 4.4 and 5.2. 7 Years could be the sweet spot. Plus then it ends when he's 31 and that whole contract he'll be teaching new young guys how to play the game the right way.

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[Beef Invictus]

"play the game the right way" is synonymous in Flyers World with "no scoring or fun allowed"

 

[DancingPanther]

You want to give Noah f***ing Cates 8 years?

 

[Hanover Fist]

[email protected] NTC

 

[BernieParent]

For me, Cates is still in "show me" mode. Maybe 3x$2 million?

 

[Curufinwe]

8 x $3.75m

 

[deadhead]

Cates is pretty safe. He's already an elite defender, he doesn't have to show much offensive improvement to have real value.

Scoring ranking 5x5/60, lat 56 games (when Cates became full-time center):
Frost (39)
TK (80)
Tippett (108)
Farabee (179)

Cates (187)
Laughton (227)

Allison (283)

Cates was scoring at a solid 3C rate. 1.57.


Why would CBJ want Hayes? JG was scoring at a 1.35 pace during this stretch, given they're committed to him, getting him a center he's comfortable with is probably a priority.

 

[Curufinwe]

Cates played center all season.

In the first 26 games he took 292 faceoffs, only slightly fewer than Hayes and Laughton.

NHL Stats

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[Columbus Hockey Dad]

I'd go very short term on him. I'm not sure what we really have with him yet.

 

[FlyguyOX]

You want to give Noah f***ing Cates 8 years?

His defensive metrics were borderline Selke levels.

So, yeah. Worst case he gives you a lot of trade value at a TDL, especially if you retain. You know how Laughton has good value because of his cap and positional versatility and "intangibles"? Same concept

"play the game the right way" is synonymous in Flyers World with "no scoring or fun allowed"

Or synonymous with skills that earn heaps and heaps of praise come playoff time since the "fun and scoring" usually dries up from players that don't play the right way.

 

[wasup]

Cates is pretty safe. He's already an elite defender, he doesn't have to show much offensive improvement to have real value.

Scoring ranking 5x5/60, lat 56 games (when Cates became full-time center):
Frost (39)
TK (80)
Tippett (108)
Farabee (179)

Cates (187)
Laughton (227)

Allison (283)

Cates was scoring at a solid 3C rate. 1.57.


Why would CBJ want Hayes? JG was scoring at a 1.35 pace during this stretch, given they're committed to him, getting him a center he's comfortable with is probably a priority.

Cates was glued to Kony like flies to shit . He was picking up points by just being out there on the same line . I know why you like Analytics so much , you can manipulate them with the best of them and context means nothing . He was also playing with a pile of confidence as Torts' could see no wrong . His numbers offensively are bloated by Tort's, on a good team he plays 3 line LW .

 

[VladDrag]

His defensive metrics were borderline Selke levels.

There is so much volatility in defensive metrics, and they are so hard to replicate from year to year. You sub to EH... Take a look at Faksa's, Toffolli's, Staals, etc. annual player cards. Those numbers bounce all over the place. With some of those guys, they are still effective players because they have offensive ability.

You're going to see some type of regression in Cates' defensive metrics. It might not be a significant decrease, but he's not going to be in the 99th percentile for the next 8 years. So then, you have to rely on his offensive game to mature.

But when you dig into Cates' offensive metrics (looking at Cates' player card here), his offensive rank (24th percentile) only as high as it is due to decent Even Strength GAR numbers. (GAR numbers are what actually happened). His xGAR (what was expected to happen) were terrible, meaning he wasn't consistently the responsible person for offense. The discrepancy between the GAR and xGAR numbers are likely due to getting great deployment with TK and Farabee. So is there anything in the dataset that says Cates' will progress offensively? I don't think so. For clarity, it doesn't mean that he won't get better offensively, it just means there really isn't anything that suggests that to me from a data standpoint.

So you need to expect some level of regression of defensive metrics for Cates, but can you expect some level of progression of offensive metrics? I don't know. Also, do you expect him to continue to play center, or does he move back to left wing? If he going to continue to to play center, does he get to play with TK? I don't know any of these answers.

So, yeah. Worst case he gives you a lot of trade value at a TDL, especially if you retain. You know how Laughton has good value because of his cap and positional versatility and "intangibles"? Same concept

My overarching point is that I don't think there is enough data to suggest that an 8-year contract at 5 million per year is the way to go. There is way too much uncertainty to give Cates that contract. But the worst case is you've given a 5m dollar contract for 8 years for a guy who should be making $2.5-3M. That's not a terrible overpayment, but it's also not getting surplus value from a contract. That should be the goal anytime you acquire a player.

Also if you sign him to an 8-year deal, you are not moving him at a TDL for at least 6 years.

 

[Rich Nixon]

8x$8.75m

gotta lock down a rare talent like Noah Cates when you get the chance

 

[deadhead]

There is so much volatility in defensive metrics, and they are so hard to replicate from year to year. You sub to EH... Take a look at Faksa's, Toffolli's, Staals, etc. annual player cards. Those numbers bounce all over the place. With some of those guys, they are still effective players because they have offensive ability.

You're going to see some type of regression in Cates' defensive metrics. It might not be a significant decrease, but he's not going to be in the 99th percentile for the next 8 years. So then, you have to rely on his offensive game to mature.

But when you dig into Cates' offensive metrics (looking at Cates' player card here), his offensive rank (24th percentile) only as high as it is due to decent Even Strength GAR numbers. (GAR numbers are what actually happened). His xGAR (what was expected to happen) were terrible, meaning he wasn't consistently the responsible person for offense. The discrepancy between the GAR and xGAR numbers are likely due to getting great deployment with TK and Farabee. So is there anything in the dataset that says Cates' will progress offensively? I don't think so. For clarity, it doesn't mean that he won't get better offensively, it just means there really isn't anything that suggests that to me from a data standpoint.

So you need to expect some level of regression of defensive metrics for Cates, but can you expect some level of progression of offensive metrics? I don't know. Also, do you expect him to continue to play center, or does he move back to left wing? If he going to continue to to play center, does he get to play with TK? I don't know any of these answers.


My overarching point is that I don't think there is enough data to suggest that an 8-year contract at 5 million per year is the way to go. There is way too much uncertainty to give Cates that contract. But the worst case is you've given a 5m dollar contract for 8 years for a guy who should be making $2.5-3M. That's not a terrible overpayment, but it's also not getting surplus value from a contract. That should be the goal anytime you acquire a player.

Also if you sign him to an 8-year deal, you are not moving him at a TDL for at least 6 years.

Given he was a college LW out of an ultra-conservative scheme playing center as a rookie and getting the toughest defensive matchups, I'd say there's good reason to think he can improve offensively. He's limited in some areas, would be best at center with a playmaking wing (which TK is certainly not), Cates' strong point are his hands in a crowd, he's very good at gaining and keeping puck possession. Which means he's best near the net, generating dirty goals and not in space, setting up shooters.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Torts gunna go max term/length on his goldenboy....

 

[FlyguyOX]

Cates was glued to Kony like flies to shit . He was picking up points by just being out there on the same line . I know why you like Analytics so much , you can manipulate them with the best of them and context means nothing . He was also playing with a pile of confidence as Torts' could see no wrong . His numbers offensively are bloated by Tort's, on a good team he plays 3 line LW .

His numbers offensively are bloated? More like suppressed.

5v5 Cates QoT xGAR/60 was low on the team, just above Laughton, Bellows, Deslauriers, and other 4th liners among regular forwards in the lineup. Probably was brought down by the garbage year Farabee had.

Conversely, his QoC xGAR/60 was tied with Farabee and Konecny as highest on team among regular forwards. He and Konecny regularly faced the other teams best players. That will certainly make it tougher to score points, and it could definitely be argued his defensive responsibility allowed for Konecny's offensive game to open up.

 

[FlyguyOX]

There is so much volatility in defensive metrics, and they are so hard to replicate from year to year. You sub to EH... Take a look at Faksa's, Toffolli's, Staals, etc. annual player cards. Those numbers bounce all over the place. With some of those guys, they are still effective players because they have offensive ability.

You're going to see some type of regression in Cates' defensive metrics. It might not be a significant decrease, but he's not going to be in the 99th percentile for the next 8 years. So then, you have to rely on his offensive game to mature.

But when you dig into Cates' offensive metrics (looking at Cates' player card here), his offensive rank (24th percentile) only as high as it is due to decent Even Strength GAR numbers. (GAR numbers are what actually happened). His xGAR (what was expected to happen) were terrible, meaning he wasn't consistently the responsible person for offense. The discrepancy between the GAR and xGAR numbers are likely due to getting great deployment with TK and Farabee. So is there anything in the dataset that says Cates' will progress offensively? I don't think so. For clarity, it doesn't mean that he won't get better offensively, it just means there really isn't anything that suggests that to me from a data standpoint.

So you need to expect some level of regression of defensive metrics for Cates, but can you expect some level of progression of offensive metrics? I don't know. Also, do you expect him to continue to play center, or does he move back to left wing? If he going to continue to to play center, does he get to play with TK? I don't know any of these answers.


My overarching point is that I don't think there is enough data to suggest that an 8-year contract at 5 million per year is the way to go. There is way too much uncertainty to give Cates that contract. But the worst case is you've given a 5m dollar contract for 8 years for a guy who should be making $2.5-3M. That's not a terrible overpayment, but it's also not getting surplus value from a contract. That should be the goal anytime you acquire a player.

Also if you sign him to an 8-year deal, you are not moving him at a TDL for at least 6 years.

Does he need to be much better offensively to still be worth it as a shutdown center in the middle six? Also the "great deployment with konecny and farabee" doesn't really work when Farabee is absolutely terrible all year, look at Cates QoT xGAR/60, one of the worst on the team. I think the point of his teammates is overstated ITT and the point of opponents he was matched up with understated.

I'm trying to think of a comparable and Cirelli comes to mind in that his offense has never really come around, but still valued greatly on PK and defensively.

I think 7x4mm is a good bet personally.

Given he was a college LW out of an ultra-conservative scheme playing center as a rookie and getting the toughest defensive matchups, I'd say there's good reason to think he can improve offensively. He's limited in some areas, would be best at center with a playmaking wing (which TK is certainly not), Cates' strong point are his hands in a crowd, he's very good at gaining and keeping puck possession. Which means he's best near the net, generating dirty goals and not in space, setting up shooters.

Agree, he was good extending offensive zone time and getting to the net front afterwards.

 

[kudymen]

 

[Beef Invictus]

His defensive metrics were borderline Selke levels.

So, yeah. Worst case he gives you a lot of trade value at a TDL, especially if you retain. You know how Laughton has good value because of his cap and positional versatility and "intangibles"? Same concept


Or synonymous with skills that earn heaps and heaps of praise come playoff time since the "fun and scoring" usually dries up from players that don't play the right way.

Teams that can't score lose out way faster than the teams built with an obsession on defense above all else. You win by scoring. You lose by just trying to hang on in games to withstand the siege, which is what the Flyers build to do.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Teams that can't score lose.

Teams that can’t prevent scoring also lose. I’d rather watch a good structured team that’s great on the forecheck with meh finishing (Hurricanes) than the Oilers who are a disaster in their own end but fly the zone and create lots of rush chances (yayyy scoring)

 

[Beef Invictus]

Teams that can’t prevent scoring also lose

Only if they can't score.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Only if they can't score.

See: Oilers.

Good article the other week on the athletic and how above average offense, below average defense teams almost never win a cup. Most cup winners are above average in both

 

[Beef Invictus]

See: Oilers.

That's a badly managed team. Like the Flyers. They just have McDavid to drag them along. Outside of like 3 players, they aren't good at scoring.

You are proposing giving a guy who produces at a 4th line level an 8 year contract. When an inability to score is a crippling problem.

 

[FlyguyOX]

That's a badly managed team. Like the Flyers. They just have McDavid to drag them along. Outside of like 3 players, they aren't good at scoring.

You are proposing giving a guy who produces at a 4th line level an 8 year contract. When an inability to score is a crippling problem.

They have 2 of the best forwards in the game. Scoring. And year after year it gets them nowhere because the defensive structure and awareness is garbage.

Cup teams are made off of smart bets like Slavin and Pesce. Those guys produced 3rd pair offense, too. Slavin had a season of 20,34,30pts before he signed his deal. Pesce 16,20,19.

Gourde not a big points guy but his little things and defensive impact was definitely felt in the playoffs as well

 

[Curufinwe]

His numbers offensively are bloated? More like suppressed.

5v5 Cates QoT xGAR/60 was low on the team, just above Laughton, Bellows, Deslauriers, and other 4th liners among regular forwards in the lineup. Probably was brought down by the garbage year Farabee had.

Conversely, his QoC xGAR/60 was tied with Farabee and Konecny as highest on team among regular forwards. He and Konecny regularly faced the other teams best players. That will certainly make it tougher to score points, and it could definitely be argued his defensive responsibility allowed for Konecny's offensive game to open up.

TK performed significantly better with Frost.

Farabee didn't have a garbage year at ES. His production was much better than Cates'. 1.92 P/60 at 5on5 vs 1.37 for Cates.