Proposal: No to Gibson

[Stephen]

CJ on TSN 1050 said that the leafs are going for cheaper goalies. More under the radar guys. To me the San Jose goalies are perfect canadiates, as well as some free agents who were backups like Comrie, Wedgewood etc...I could see them going for Stolarz instead of Gibson too.

I wonder if Dubas watched the Oilers march to the WCF with Mike Smith's insane goaltending and said "yep let's recreate all of this."

 

[BackPassChampions]

I wonder if Dubas watched the Oilers march to the WCF with Mike Smith's insane goaltending and said "yep let's recreate all of this."

Can’t imagine this being the scenario.

Dubas took a chance on Campbell and he’s going to try again. Money is one of the majors factor in this.

 

[Stephen]

Can’t imagine this being the scenario.

Dubas took a chance on Campbell and he’s going to try again. Money is one a major factor in this.

I really wish he wasn't playing Moneyball with this critical position. Get a normally priced starting option, lock it in for a few years and just have some damn security.

 

[Rielly4]

I really wish he wasn't playing Moneyball with this critical position. Get a normally priced starting option, lock it in for a few years and just have some damn security.

That's the thing though, is a starting goalie really secure? Its sucha weird position, Florida locks in Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight ends up being the better option. Besides a few goalies (Vailevski/Price). Goalies go hot and cold constantly. Right now Sheshterkin looks crazy, maybe he stays like that forever, or maybe he falls off a cliff. Its just risky spending money there when it could end up being a complete waste on a goalie that just doesn't perform well. Binnington and Murray come to mind as cup winning goalies who really arent that good but played very well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I really wish he wasn't playing Moneyball with this critical position. Get a normally priced starting option, lock it in for a few years and just have some damn security.

As @Rielly4 alluded to, that hasn't necessarily yielded results.

Gibson, Bobrovsky, Binnington, Murray, Grubauer...

Outside of Price, Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck, Shestyerkin, Demko, Saros, and Markstrom, I am not sure anyone who is currently making 5+ mill right now should be making 5+ mill, and Price is not worth anywhere close to what he is currently making. Kuemper may join the low end of that list this year, and a few guys who are coming up now or soon like Oettinger, Swayman, and Sorokin will likely justify it too, but there are almost 20 goalies making 5+ mill in the NHL right now and not even half of them are worth their cap hits (and also why Campbell is not worth anything more than like 4.5 x 2 like what Kuemper got a few years ago). You can even toss Fleury, a younger Quick, Crawford, Holtby, Andersen, Varlamov, and Rask into the mix as guys who recently made 5+ mill and were worth it for some stretch of time, and you maybe get to 60% (although I could include some other busts in there which bring that percentage down again).

Meanwhile, we get guys on ELC's like Murray and Binnington and random ass backups like Khudobin going beast mode and leading their teams to Cup Finals or wins.

It is not completely random, but goaltending is by far the most volatile position in hockey. Unless you are confident you have a really good goalie (i.e. consistent top 10), you should not be locking in big money on goalies (and certainly not on older goalies). Even then, there is pretty much a hard cap at 5.5 mill or whereabouts because as soon as you get north of 5.5 mill, you need a guy who is consistently challenging for top 5 in the NHL.

Gibson is making 6.4mill, and he has played closer to a guy who makes somewhere in the 4's the past 3 years. Blame the team, but there have been guys who have played on worse teams and have looked better than him, and they don't make anywhere close to 6.4 mill. There is still some upside in him, but that contract is a major poison pill and not something that I think a lot of teams will find overly attractive without retention.

If Gibson came with over a mill in retention and they took on Mrazek like they did with Bernier, I could maybe see them getting an Andersen return. They aren't getting a Kessel return.

 

[Nylander88]

CJ on TSN 1050 said that the leafs are going for cheaper goalies. More under the radar guys. To me the San Jose goalies are perfect canadiates, as well as some free agents who were backups like Comrie, Wedgewood etc...I could see them going for Stolarz instead of Gibson too.

True... But if they're going the cheaper route or in the Adin Hill tier of goalies, there are lots to be had for nothing more than money in free agency. Not that I'm against us giving Adin Hill a shot.

 

[Nylander88]

I really really feel like Dubas' is going to stay predictable, and target Matt Murray. His starter back in the soo days. That'll be his reclamation project. As long as Ottawa is taking Mrazek and eating some of Murray's salary....I'm good with it. But it's certainly a gamble

 

[ErnieLeafs]

It’s so depressing, when you think about the fact that we haven’t had a guy we could truly count on between the pipes since Belfour…

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I don't want to be a total downer, but what if next season's tandem is Mrazek/Kallgren?

If Dubas is going cheap/reclamation then he can look no further than what he has.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I really really feel like Dubas' is going to stay predictable, and target Matt Murray. His starter back in the soo days. That'll be his reclamation project. As long as Ottawa is taking Mrazek and eating some of Murray's salary....I'm good with it. But it's certainly a gamble

Murray is an awful goaltender. It will end up being a disaster again just like Mrazek. Just what we need

I don't want to be a total downer, but what if next season's tandem is Mrazek/Kallgren?

If Dubas is going cheap/reclamation then he can look no further than what he has.

Dubas should just quit his job and save himself the embarrassment if he went with that.

 

[ACC1224]

I don't want to be a total downer, but what if next season's tandem is Mrazek/Kallgren?

If Dubas is going cheap/reclamation then he can look no further than what he has.

It could very well be that. Wouldn’t be a surprise in the least.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I really really feel like Dubas' is going to stay predictable, and target Matt Murray. His starter back in the soo days. That'll be his reclamation project. As long as Ottawa is taking Mrazek and eating some of Murray's salary....I'm good with it. But it's certainly a gamble

Pretty sad gamble at this point in his tenure

 

[ToneDog]

I don't want to be a total downer, but what if next season's tandem is Mrazek/Kallgren?

If Dubas is going cheap/reclamation then he can look no further than what he has.

Zero chance IMO. Even if he rolls the dice with Mrazek, he will sign or acquire a #2G like Comire or DeSmith that can step into the #1 role when Mrazek's groin goes south.

I really wish he wasn't playing Moneyball with this critical position. Get a normally priced starting option, lock it in for a few years and just have some damn security.

You mean like Lou did when he traded for Andersen and extended him ?? YOu gotta have cap space to do it, and we have Mrazek. Incoming more 3D chess from the wizzard.

 

[Stephen]

As @Rielly4 alluded to, that hasn't necessarily yielded results.

Gibson, Bobrovsky, Binnington, Murray, Grubauer...

Outside of Price, Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck, Shestyerkin, Demko, Saros, and Markstrom, I am not sure anyone who is currently making 5+ mill right now should be making 5+ mill, and Price is not worth anywhere close to what he is currently making. Kuemper may join the low end of that list this year, and a few guys who are coming up now or soon like Oettinger, Swayman, and Sorokin will likely justify it too, but there are almost 20 goalies making 5+ mill in the NHL right now and not even half of them are worth their cap hits (and also why Campbell is not worth anything more than like 4.5 x 2 like what Kuemper got a few years ago). You can even toss Fleury, a younger Quick, Crawford, Holtby, Andersen, Varlamov, and Rask into the mix as guys who recently made 5+ mill and were worth it for some stretch of time, and you maybe get to 60% (although I could include some other busts in there which bring that percentage down again).

Meanwhile, we get guys on ELC's like Murray and Binnington and random ass backups like Khudobin going beast mode and leading their teams to Cup Finals or wins.

It is not completely random, but goaltending is by far the most volatile position in hockey. Unless you are confident you have a really good goalie (i.e. consistent top 10), you should not be locking in big money on goalies (and certainly not on older goalies). Even then, there is pretty much a hard cap at 5.5 mill or whereabouts because as soon as you get north of 5.5 mill, you need a guy who is consistently challenging for top 5 in the NHL.

Gibson is making 6.4mill, and he has played closer to a guy who makes somewhere in the 4's the past 3 years. Blame the team, but there have been guys who have played on worse teams and have looked better than him, and they don't make anywhere close to 6.4 mill. There is still some upside in him, but that contract is a major poison pill and not something that I think a lot of teams will find overly attractive without retention.

If Gibson came with over a mill in retention and they took on Mrazek like they did with Bernier, I could maybe see them getting an Andersen return. They aren't getting a Kessel return.

I’m not fully convinced Gibson is the way to go but I also don’t think paying under $2 million for a goalie is going to be the way to move forward with this franchise.

 

[Stephen]

That's the thing though, is a starting goalie really secure? Its sucha weird position, Florida locks in Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight ends up being the better option. Besides a few goalies (Vailevski/Price). Goalies go hot and cold constantly. Right now Sheshterkin looks crazy, maybe he stays like that forever, or maybe he falls off a cliff. Its just risky spending money there when it could end up being a complete waste on a goalie that just doesn't perform well. Binnington and Murray come to mind as cup winning goalies who really arent that good but played very well.

I dunno with this Leafs team. They won a massive bet on Campbell last round of Moneyball goaltending and still ended up in a Game 7 first round elimination. This time they need to make a similar bet but actually get a goalie who wins rounds at a similar cap AAV. Just feels like the odds are getting longer every time they roll the dice. If it were up to me, I would carve out some big dollars elsewhere and just invest in someone quality I believe in.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Zero chance IMO. Even if he rolls the dice with Mrazek, he will sign or acquire a #2G like Comire or DeSmith that can step into the #1 role when Mrazek's groin goes south.



You mean like Lou did when he traded for Andersen and extended him ?? YOu gotta have cap space to do it, and we have Mrazek. Incoming more 3D chess from the wizzard.

Courier, DeSmith, Mrazek? This is a very bad idea. This year's goalie circumstances were collar-tugging to say the least. They came out very lucky IMO, but it could have been a disaster.

Sometimes you have to win a 1-0 hockey game in the playoffs. Toronto cannot keep asking the big guns to shoulder the work.

When I consider the recent history (last 30 years) of the NHL playoffs, I can only think of 1 example of a mediocre goalie winning a cup: Antii Neimi (Chicago). Most of the other cup winners had good to great goaltending. Even Toronto's success in the 90's and 00's came from great goaltending.

Dubas and Shanny must be feeling the heat. They can't possibly gamble with a couple of .888 goalies.

I don't know. Just my opinion.

 

[nuck]

I really really feel like Dubas' is going to stay predictable, and target Matt Murray. His starter back in the soo days. That'll be his reclamation project. As long as Ottawa is taking Mrazek and eating some of Murray's salary....I'm good with it. But it's certainly a gamble

How about Holtby? If they are gambling, why not a guy coming off a decent year?

 

[thusk]

I don’t want to see the leafs give up the assets needed to acquire Gibson along with having his cap hit. I honestly don’t believe he is as good as campbell. Three years of declining numbers show this. If I’m dubas and giving up assets to pay a goalie in the 6 m range I’m seriously trying to figure out what it takes to get binnington out of St. Louis. To me he is one if the top 5 clutch goalies when it matters. Just curious what others think and what goalies (other then Gibson) would uou like to see dubas go after

Dont believe is as good as Campbell

Campbell against top 20 in NHL

0.906% for 32 of 47 (66%) game he started. He played in front a team #3 on expected goal, 9th on high danger shot against

Gibson 0.904%

Hes started 44 of 56 game he played against top 20 team ( 79%). He didn't had a lot of easy game to boost his stats...

Campbell played 9 game less than Gibson and get 3 more easy game...

Played in front a team who was 25th in expected goal, 24th on high danger shot against... last 3 season anaheim finished 27 th on GAx and 29th on high danger chance against

And the biggest difference between gibson and a goalie like hellebuyck or Demko is the offensive... anaheim was 30th goal for vs 15 and 17 th for Van and WPG...no body will play with the same energy during a 4-4 game or a 4-1 game...

So please dont tell me Campbell was better, Toronto just didn't ask as much than whats duck was asking to Gibson...

 

[Stephen]

Dont believe is as good as Campbell

Campbell against top 20 in NHL

0.906% for 32 of 47 (66%) game he started. He played in front a team #3 on expected goal, 9th on high danger shot against

Gibson 0.904%

Hes started 44 of 56 game he played against top 20 team ( 79%). He didn't had a lot of easy game to boost his stats...

Campbell played 9 game less than Gibson and get 3 more easy game...

Played in front a team who was 25th in expected goal, 24th on high danger shot against... last 3 season anaheim finished 27 th on GAx and 29th on high danger chance against

And the biggest difference between gibson and a goalie like hellebuyck or Demko is the offensive... anaheim was 30th goal for vs 15 and 17 th for Van and WPG...no body will play with the same energy during a 4-4 game or a 4-1 game...

So please dont tell me Campbell was better, Toronto just didn't ask as much than whats duck was asking to Gibson...

I wouldn’t want to get in the weeds of a Gibson vs Campbell but one plays on a rebuilding team with kids like Milano, Zegras and Terry running around like Disney on Ice. That’s not an environment for a goalie to shine.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Goalies are voodoo .. as much as I’d like to see them land a legit #1, the reality is they’re volatile

Also the price for Gibson and Hellebyuck are probably my massive and not worth the asset cost. That has to be factored in too.

What you’re left with is a free agent crop that’s probably better to go cheaper with.

 

[thusk]

I wouldn’t want to get in the weeds of a Gibson vs Campbell but one plays on a rebuilding team with kids like Milano, Zegras and Terry running around like Disney on Ice. That’s not an environment for a goalie to shine.

Edactly, people just looking gibson stats and telling hes suck but the reality is than No goalie played in a worst environment than gibson last 3 years

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Is there any way Anaheim would retain on Gibson. Leaf fans might feel better about his acquisition if he makes less on our cap. I wonder if Dubas is offering our 1st with that retention in mind.

Is Gibson worth our 1st round pick?

 

[thusk]

Is there any way Anaheim would retain on Gibson. Leaf fans might feel better about his acquisition if he makes less on our cap. I wonder if Dubas is offering our 1st with that retention in mind.

Is Gibson worth our 1st round pick?

He would cost at least 2 1st pick and probably a prospect like hirvonen.

I know a lot will say the pruce is too high but what his really a 1st round value. I made an exercice maybe 3-4 weeks ago and i watch every draft 2006 to 2016. I count every top 6 foward or top 4 dman who was draft between 21 to 30 or 31...

The result is around 20% or player between 21 will be a top 6 or top 4 dman and 80 will be a depht player or a bust. So in fact giving 2 late first round = giving 40 % of chance to get a top 4 d or top 6 fow and 60% of giving depht player and bust vs get 100% of getting a #1 goalie

 

[Nylander88]

How about Holtby? If they are gambling, why not a guy coming off a decent year?

Id be all for Holtby. Like I said, I think Dubas goes for Murray....didn't say I personally wanted Murray. Holtby would be a great cheap option imo

 

[Ianturnedbull]

He would cost at least 2 1st pick and probably a prospect like hirvonen.

I know a lot will say the pruce is too high but what his really a 1st round value. I made an exercice maybe 3-4 weeks ago and i watch every draft 2006 to 2016. I count every top 6 foward or top 4 dman who was draft between 21 to 30 or 31...

The result is around 20% or player between 21 will be a top 6 or top 4 dman and 80 will be a depht player or a bust. So in fact giving 2 late first round = giving 40 % of chance to get a top 4 d or top 6 fow and 60% of giving depht player and bust vs get 100% of getting a #1 goalie

I disagree. I don't think goalies cost that much (no matter how you shape the draft potential).

If you can come up with examples of goalies being traded for 2 x 1st round draft picks I'd love to see it.