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Prospect Info: Nick Robertson Rookie Season potential...

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I think the top 6 is reasonably locked in as Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman and Mikheyev. Likely:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev - Tavares - Nylander

The bottom 6 will be a dogfight for spots. IMO Kerfoot is a lock, and then there's 11 guys who are at least close to NHL quality, competing for 5 spots:
  • Very likely to make the opening night roster: Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds
  • Reasonably likely: Vesey, Barbanov, Robertson (though likely at least one of these won't make it)
  • Has a realistic shot: Boyd
  • Quite unlikely: Engvall, Petan, Malgin, Joey Anderson
If Nick doesn't make the opening night roster, I do expect him to be near the front of the line for injury callups. Also, we might end up rotating the 12th forward spot between a few guys, see who does best.

In terms of point projections, probably pretty modest, as he'd be in a bottom 6 role, plus he's small and very young, just recently turned 19. I'd look to someone like Kapanen as a comparable, more than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. Kappy's stats when breaking into the league:
  • 2015/16 (D+2 season) - 9 regular season games, 0G/0A
  • 2016/17 (D+3 season) - 8 regular season games, 1G/0A; 6 playoff games, 2G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+4 season) - 38 regular season games, 7G/1A; 7 playoff games, 1G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+5 season) - 78 regular season games, 20G/24A; 7 playoff games, 1G/1A
This is just Nick's D+2 season, and he's super young for his draft year too, barely older than an old D+1. If he could equal Kappy's D+4 season (plays about half the games, at about 0.2 PPG), I'd consider that very successful for a young guy starting to get some NHL time in a bottom 6 role. He could easily be closer to Kappy's D+2 or D+3 seasons.
 
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ponder said:
I think the top 6 is reasonably locked in as Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman and Mikheyev. Likely:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev - Tavares - Nylander

The bottom 6 will be a dogfight for spots. IMO Kerfoot's spot is locked down, and then there's 11 guys who are at least close to NHL quality, competing for 5 spots - Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds, Vesey, Barbanov, Robertson, Boyd, Engvall, Petan, Malgin and Joey Anderson. If I had to put them into tiers, in terms of likelihood of making the opening night roster, I'd go with:
  • Very likely: Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds
  • Reasonably likely: Vesey, Barbanov, Robertson (though likely at least one of these won't make it)
  • Has a realistic shot: Boyd
  • Quite unlikely: Engvall, Petan, Malgin, Joey Anderson
If Nick doesn't make the opening night roster, I do expect him to be near the front of the line for injury callups. Also, we might end up rotating the 12th forward spot between a few guys, see who does best.

In terms of point projections, probably pretty modest, as he'd be in a bottom 6 role, plus he's small and very young, just recently turned 19. I'd look to someone like Kapanen as a comparable, more than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. Kappy's stats when breaking into the league:
  • 2015/16 (D+2 season) - 9 regular season games, 0G/0A
  • 2016/17 (D+3 season) - 8 regular season games, 1G/0A; 6 playoff games, 2G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+4 season) - 38 regular season games, 7G/1A; 7 playoff games, 1G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+5 season) - 78 regular season games, 20G/24A; 7 playoff games, 1G/1A
This is just Nick's D+2 season, and he's super young for his draft year too, barely older than an old D+1. If he could equal Kappy's D+4 season (plays about half the games, at about 0.2 PPG), I'd consider that very successful for a young guy starting to get some NHL time in a bottom 6 role.
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Assuming Robertson makes their bottom 6 to start the season, I can possibly see him replacing Mikeyev in their top 6 at some point later on.
 
LeafsNation75 said:
Assuming Robertson makes their bottom 6 to start the season, I can possibly see him replacing Mikeyev in their top 6 at some point later on.
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I'm sure Keefe will experiment with all sorts of things for the odd shift/game, but I don't see that sticking, unless there are injuries. Mikheyev is way ahead of Robertson at this point, IMO.

I can see him getting time in the top 6 if there are injuries in the top 6, though. Kerfoot would likely be the first to move up, but then, for a winger spot, it'd be reasonably open between guys like Robertson, Vesey, Barbanov and Simmonds.
 
ponder said:
I'm sure Keefe will experiment with all sorts of things for the odd shift/game, but I don't see that sticking, unless there are injuries. Mikheyev is way ahead of Robertson at this point, IMO.

I can see him getting time in the top 6 if there are injuries in the top 6, though.
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I agree that as of today Mikheyev is ahead of Robertson.

However I think he's also the most likely one who might get replaced in the top 6 by Robertson.
 
leafsfan2point0 said:
Lol^^^

If he can get 15 goals and 15 assists in 56 games I would be happy. He definitely has potential for more in future years.
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That’s a 22 goal, 22 assist pace. I think a very good outcome for Nick this year would be to secure a 3rd line role, and play on the 2nd PP. Hard for anyone to hit those numbers in that sort of role, nevermind a 2nd round pick who just recently turned 19. I think it’s reasonably likely that zero Leafs outside of our top 6 forwards (Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman, Mikheyev) hit 15 goals next year.

I like Nick a lot, and think he has a really bright future, but I wouldn’t expect major production from him next year.
 
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ponder said:
That’s a 22 goal, 22 assist pace. I think a very good outcome for Nick this year would be to secure a 3rd line role, and play on the 2nd PP. Hard for anyone to hit those numbers in that sort of role, nevermind a 2nd round pick who just recently turned 19.

I like Nick a lot, and think he has a really bright future, but I wouldn’t expect major production from him next year.
Click to expand...

Yes, it’s good to temper expectations. We’ll see what kind of usage he gets during the season. As of now I would consider him to be a lock to make the lineup barring injury.
 
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I think its between him and Barabanov for that last roster spot. I could see them giving it to Barabanov and not burning a year on Robertson's ELC. If there's no OHL however, Taxi Squad is extremely likely for Robertson
 
ponder said:
I think the top 6 is reasonably locked in as Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman and Mikheyev. Likely:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev - Tavares - Nylander

The bottom 6 will be a dogfight for spots. IMO Kerfoot is a lock, and then there's 11 guys who are at least close to NHL quality, competing for 5 spots:
  • Very likely to make the opening night roster: Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds
  • Reasonably likely: Vesey, Barbanov, Robertson (though likely at least one of these won't make it)
  • Has a realistic shot: Boyd
  • Quite unlikely: Engvall, Petan, Malgin, Joey Anderson
If Nick doesn't make the opening night roster, I do expect him to be near the front of the line for injury callups. Also, we might end up rotating the 12th forward spot between a few guys, see who does best.

In terms of point projections, probably pretty modest, as he'd be in a bottom 6 role, plus he's small and very young, just recently turned 19. I'd look to someone like Kapanen as a comparable, more than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. Kappy's stats when breaking into the league:
  • 2015/16 (D+2 season) - 9 regular season games, 0G/0A
  • 2016/17 (D+3 season) - 8 regular season games, 1G/0A; 6 playoff games, 2G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+4 season) - 38 regular season games, 7G/1A; 7 playoff games, 1G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+5 season) - 78 regular season games, 20G/24A; 7 playoff games, 1G/1A
This is just Nick's D+2 season, and he's super young for his draft year too, barely older than an old D+1. If he could equal Kappy's D+4 season (plays about half the games, at about 0.2 PPG), I'd consider that very successful for a young guy starting to get some NHL time in a bottom 6 role. He could easily be closer to Kappy's D+2 or D+3 seasons.
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Nice breakdown, great post :) Really nailed all the variables.
 
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The CyNick said:
15 points if lucky.
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Definitely a probability if he doesn’t get the playing time. There are hardly any messages coming out that makes that guess hold less or more weight than a more optimistic guess. Thats for sure.
Mikheyev didn’t show more or less in the playins. It’s interesting is my take. So much more to see to get a read on this. A couple of good players in Robertson/ Mikheyev are in a battle for top 6 minutes is where I’m at presently.
If Robertson wasn’t good defensively i would never even wonder about the competition they are likely to have in camp. Everything considered in comparing them for me, they look pretty equal. Mikheyev might be a better skater, have better slightly hockey reads( IQ) acquired with obviously more Nhl experience. Robertson might have the better shot and higher intensity.

Lots of good yet differing takes in here.
 
ponder said:
That’s a 22 goal, 22 assist pace. I think a very good outcome for Nick this year would be to secure a 3rd line role, and play on the 2nd PP. Hard for anyone to hit those numbers in that sort of role, nevermind a 2nd round pick who just recently turned 19. I think it’s reasonably likely that zero Leafs outside of our top 6 forwards (Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman, Mikheyev) hit 15 goals next year.

I like Nick a lot, and think he has a really bright future, but I wouldn’t expect major production from him next year.
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I don’t think the age and-round he was selected in matters .
 
jaric1862 said:
I think its between him and Barabanov for that last roster spot. I could see them giving it to Barabanov and not burning a year on Robertson's ELC. If there's no OHL however, Taxi Squad is extremely likely for Robertson
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Another great point right here ^
 
Shortened season, probable bottom 6 with some 2nd unit PP time, I think 13G. 10A 23P (about 40 point full season pace) would be a pretty good season with that usage.
 
ponder said:
I think the top 6 is reasonably locked in as Matthews, Marner, JT, Nylander, Hyman and Mikheyev. Likely:

Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev - Tavares - Nylander

The bottom 6 will be a dogfight for spots. IMO Kerfoot is a lock, and then there's 11 guys who are at least close to NHL quality, competing for 5 spots:
  • Very likely to make the opening night roster: Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds
  • Reasonably likely: Vesey, Barbanov, Robertson (though likely at least one of these won't make it)
  • Has a realistic shot: Boyd
  • Quite unlikely: Engvall, Petan, Malgin, Joey Anderson
If Nick doesn't make the opening night roster, I do expect him to be near the front of the line for injury callups. Also, we might end up rotating the 12th forward spot between a few guys, see who does best.

In terms of point projections, probably pretty modest, as he'd be in a bottom 6 role, plus he's small and very young, just recently turned 19. I'd look to someone like Kapanen as a comparable, more than Matthews/Marner/Nylander. Kappy's stats when breaking into the league:
  • 2015/16 (D+2 season) - 9 regular season games, 0G/0A
  • 2016/17 (D+3 season) - 8 regular season games, 1G/0A; 6 playoff games, 2G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+4 season) - 38 regular season games, 7G/1A; 7 playoff games, 1G/0A
  • 2017/18 (D+5 season) - 78 regular season games, 20G/24A; 7 playoff games, 1G/1A
This is just Nick's D+2 season, and he's super young for his draft year too, barely older than an old D+1. If he could equal Kappy's D+4 season (plays about half the games, at about 0.2 PPG), I'd consider that very successful for a young guy starting to get some NHL time in a bottom 6 role. He could easily be closer to Kappy's D+2 or D+3 seasons.
Click to expand...
 
Engvall isn't quite unlikely at all. Robertson is not well served on the 4th line.Everything depends on camp but Engvall can play 4th line and pk.
 
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I dont think its very easy to make a Robertson prediction. Odds are he wont make the top 6 and he probably wont produce a ton...But he is definitely a candidate to surprise everyone, he has the skill and the speed to play in our top 6. He may not be polished around the edges in terms of two way play and grinding but he is pretty strong on his skates for a young smaller player. He could definitely be the better option for our 2nd line LW and i wouldnt be surprised if Dubas would want to get value for his ELC years. He could definitely end up as a rookie of the year candidate IMO but more likely he will be a 3rd liner or a healthy scratch/AHLer.

Really seems like they want him on the team by letting him skip world Js...Dubas is big on young players developing and the world Js would be good for his development.
 
He had around 10 shots and one goal against Columbus I think. He also just missed finishing on a nice play in game 1, probably nervous and holding the stick too tight. This was all with limited minutes against a really good defensive team.

You can see by the games he’s played and his motor+dangerous shooter mentality that you might expect a similar performance game in and game out, regardless of small sample size thus far.

If he gets the same minutes as in the playoffs he will score goals at a minimum 0.25 gpg pace. I’d bet the farm on it, you can quote me on that, it’s a done deal and so on and so forth.
 
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I'm curious to see how much weight and strength he's gained since we last saw him. At 175 lbs I think he'll be a much more competitive force. I'd cobble the following to see if it works:

Robertson Thornton Spezza

Two guys who can shoot the puck, an assist king, and vets showing the kid how to play.
 
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meefer said:
I'm curious to see how much weight and strength he's gained since we last saw him. At 175 lbs I think he'll be a much more competitive force. I'd cobble the following to see if it works:

Robertson Thornton Spezza

Two guys who can shoot the puck, an assist king, and vets showing the kid how to play.
Click to expand...

That would actually be a really cool line for Robertson's development. I still want him in the top6 if he can handle it, but that would be a pretty interesting 3rd line.
ToneDog said:
That's 50-58 points in an 82 game season. Won't be able to afford him ;)
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I want Robertson to score so many points that he gives Brandon Pridham ulcers. I want Dubas to lay awake at night worrying about our cap because our rookies are going to need paydays.
 
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