Proposal: Nick Bjugstad (UTA) for Timothy Liljegren (TOR)

[Sixeightfivethirteen]

Looking to open the discussion around Utah using their upcoming UFA centerman Nick Bjugstad to shore up their backend for the coming years. Ideally turning it into a bigger deal to shift some short term pieces into long term pieces (or other short term pieces that get flipped for futures). Toronto's new GM Brad Treliving is a big fan of size, and Toronto reportedly needs a 3C, and they have 8 NHL D signed for this year. Here's my first crack at a framework for a trade.

Utah Gets
Timothy Liljegren
Nick Robertson
Cale Jarnkrok
Connor Dewar or Connor Timmins

Toronto Gets:
Nick Bjugstad
Michael Kesselring
Jack McBain

Why I think Utah does this:
- Robertson is high-end scoring talent on a very cheap deal. With Utah he can have the runway with a new franchise to turn into the top 6 scoring winger he's projected to be without being stuck behind the Leafs' winger depth (especially with the latest on Pacioretty expecting to sign there). He could be bridged or signed semi-long term depending on his season this year.
- Liljegren is an upgrade on Kesselring in most ways other than size. He might be the odd man out in Toronto's updated backend, and might be available to make room for the upcoming Jake McCabe extension.
- Jarnkrok I expect to be flipped at this or next year's TDL for ~3rd (maybe a 2nd if retained?). He plays on both special teams and can play all three forward positions. Good stable player to have on the team.
- Connor Dewar is a nice cheap 4th liner with upside that can play center or wing. Connor Timmins is cheap depth that has a bit more offensive flair than most 6/7 Dmen. Both Connors are RFAs at the end of their contracts.

Why I think Utah might hesitate:
- Bjugstad might get more if traded at the deadline.
- Kesselring might show more upside than he has so far, and some fans really like him.
- Liljegren's progress has slowed under Keefe, and he might be damaged goods at this point and never be more than a decent 4/5 Dman.
- The team's average height goes down by probably 6".

Why I think Toronto does this:
- Bjugstad is everything they have been begging for in a 3C forever. He solves most of their lineup issues himself with things falling in place around him.
- Robertson has asked for a trade and clearly wants to go somewhere with long term potential (rumour is he signed to make a trade easier).
- Lilly hasn't quite put it all together yet with the Leafs, and with Toronto's updated backend, making room for the upcoming Jake McCabe extension and getting back a lesser Dman who can still play would be key to not undercut the progress they've made this offseason in building their backend.
- It's outside their division and more importantly with someone they aren't likely to face in the playoffs any time soon so they don't get burned by the media.
- McBain is a younger version of Reaves they could play without worrying about mileage taking him out for the playoffs.
- The trade moves out a body to make room for their roster crunch, and shifts the cap around a bit to better structure the team.

Why I think Toronto might hesitate:
- Robertson is cheap. Like really cheap. Having a potential 20+ goal / 40+ point scoring winger for $875k is a no brainer for them to hang on to.
- Despite Keefe's shirt leash, Liljegren has indeed been their best young defensemen for a while now, with the old regime choosing to keep him over a more offensively gifted Rasmus Sandin. With 2 more years on a relatively cheap contract (2x $3M vs. Sandin's 5x $4.6M) they've recently committed to keeping him in the fold.
- Toronto would be giving up a lot of secured value for temporary help with their current needs. They could instead just wait and look to add at the TDL when more options open up.

I tried not to include the minutia of picks or minor prospects (Abruzzesse or Raty), because a few nickels to a dime on the edges of a $10 deal doesn't mean too much in the grand scheme. What do you all think? Who adds, if anything? Who says no (and why is it always both teams lol)? What other pieces would you swap in or out?

Cheers!

Click to read more...

 

[Leafs87]

Awful value for Toronto

 

[Sixeightfivethirteen]

Awful value for Toronto

Care to add to the discussion? What needs to be added/removed? Keep in mind they clear about $2M in cap space as well, not including any retention which, if it's skewed in Utah's favour, could be done to balance the deal.

 

[BKarchitect]

Awful value for Utah. Losing McBain and Bjugstad saps almost all their size and two-way physicality up front outside of Crouse. Kesselring is a quiet gem too…definitely not a throw in.

One of those deals if you go by “rating” or whatever made up score you want to give players, sure - you can say the players Toronto gives up are overall more talented or have more scoring ability.

But the game isn’t played on paper and the Utah franchise has tried to carefully balance their smaller finesse skill guys with the likes of Crouse and Bjusgtad and McBain - to give the line-up an actual useful construction and to populate it with the size, defense and board play to have all weather lines.

 

[Sixeightfivethirteen]

Awful value for Utah. Losing McBain and Bjugstad saps almost all their size and two-way physicality up front outside of Crouse. Kesselring is a quiet gem too…definitely not a throw in.

One of those deals if you go by “rating” or whatever made up score you want to give players, sure - you can say the players Toronto gives up are overall more talented or have more scoring ability.

But the game isn’t played on paper and the Utah franchise has tried to carefully balance their smaller finesse skill guys with the likes of Crouse and Bjusgtad and McBain - to give the line-up an actual useful construction and to populate it with the size, defense and board play to have all weather lines.

First reply is "Awful value for Toronto", Second reply is "Awful value for Utah". We might have something here folks!

I did note the reduction in size as a hesitation for Utah. What would you change in the deal? Take out McBain and the Connors, for example?

 

[Leaf Fans]

I would make that trade if I were the GM.

 

[Doomhammer]

Awful value for Toronto

 

[Prestigeworldwide]

Utahs depth at RD and Center is weak. Not trading Mcbain.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

If I'm Utah I don't do that.

 

[seanlinden]

It seems like there's a lot of pieces in here.... nobody's going to make a deal of this magnitude on the eve of camps, or even the eve of the regular season.

I think you'd be better off to objectively ask oneself -- what does each team really want / need.

The Leafs want/need somebody that can be 3rd line C today, and maybe work into a 2nd line spot longer term with Tavares' contract up.

Bjugstad might be well suited for that 3rd line role today, but at 32 years old with a shade under 700 games experience in the league, and 311 points in that time, it's unlikely that he's going to all of a sudden become a reliable 60 point forward at this stage of his career. Jack McBain might have that upside, but might not be quite as good as the Leafs would want/need right now in a #3C role.

You can't really take the approach of "Bjugstad for now, McBain for longer term", simply because they both need spots to play in, and the Leafs already have a couple too many forwards.

To me, the ideal candidate would be Barrett Hayton; although I can see the motivation behind a deal centered around Jack McBain. Bjugstad I feel like holds more value to the Coyotes, simply because he's a veteran, and running Hayton/Cooley/McBain as your centres is a little bit challenging given their ages.

-----------

On the Utah side of things...

The obvious organizational need is on the blueline. The Coyotes have been forward-heavy throughout the majority of their drafting, plus have Schmaltz, Keller, and Crouse as important veteran presences.

Liljegren would presumably be who they want. Forget Robertson -- they have higher valued young wingers in Guenther, Doan, and Iginla. Jarnkrok maybe a slight value if they don't think Doan is going to stick this year... but not really a needle mover in any deal.

So what does a theoretical deal look like?

I think the Leafs would happily trade Liljegren for Hayton. Would Utah do it? I suspect not... and again, adding Jarnkrok doesn't really move that needle enough. Hayton was their first line C for stretches last year, and certainly #2 on the longer term depth chart after Cooley.

I think Utah would happily trade McBain for Liljegren. Would the Leafs do it? I suspect not, simply because there'd be a feeling that Liljegren is about to break out as a #2/3 defenceman, and McBain might top out as a #3C. There's also organizational issues in that you've now added another forward without subtracting one.

That being said, I do believe there's probably some form of a "sweetener" that would make sense - whether it be a draft pick or prospect to make the concept of a McBain+ for Liljegren deal make a lot of sense for both sides.

Maybe it's something like:

Liljegren and Jarnkrok for McBain and Kesselring
or
Liljegren and a 4th for McBain and a 2nd


-

 

[Schemp]

UtHC is set. They've already upgraded their blue line.Durzi and Marino as their top 2 RHDs with Bortuzzo and Kesselring competing for that last spot. There is no NEED for Liljegren.
Robertson makes no sense. Carcone outscored him last season playing on the 4th line. And he will be hard pressed for ice time this season.
Bjugstad has chemistry with Maccelli and aren't looking to trade him this season.

 

[seanlinden]

UtHC is set. They've already upgraded their blue line.Durzi and Marino as their top 2 RHDs with Bortuzzo and Kesselring competing for that last spot. There is no NEED for Liljegren.
Robertson makes no sense. Carcone outscored him last season playing on the 4th line. And he will be hard pressed for ice time this season.
Bjugstad has chemistry with Maccelli and aren't looking to trade him this season.

Agree with you on Robertson... but to think that Utah wouldn't jump on the opportunity to add Liljegren seems farfetched to me. Marino & Duzi are good defencemen, but they are far from stars in this league. They're guys that on a good team, are probably on your 2nd pair.

Utah's not going to be successful on the backs of a few star players, simply because they don't have them. They're going to have to do it by comittee, and there's really no better way to do that then to have 3 guys on your right side, that all should be on a 2nd pair.

 

[I am Canadian]

Kesselring stood out to me as a pretty good player in the few games I saw.. This deal has way too many moving pieces.

 

[Schemp]

Agree with you on Robertson... but to think that Utah wouldn't jump on the opportunity to add Liljegren seems farfetched to me. Marino & Duzi are good defencemen, but they are far from stars in this league. They're guys that on a good team, are probably on your 2nd pair.

Utah's not going to be successful on the backs of a few star players, simply because they don't have them. They're going to have to do it by comittee, and there's really no better way to do that then to have 3 guys on your right side, that all should be on a 2nd pair.

They already have that committee set up. If Liljegren was a shut down D and pk specialist, then it would make sense. Bortuzzo will be adequate for that roll as long as he doesn't have to play every game. As long as Marino can complement Sergachev on the 1st pairing, UtHC will be fine. This is the team GMBA made. The offense will be relentless and the defense will be accountable 2-way. The goalie tandem is probably one of the most underrated in the league. Their #s should be much improved with a much improved D in front of them. This team, as is, will make the playoffs and it won't be as a wild card!

Kesselring stood out to me as a pretty good player in the few games I saw.. This deal has way too many moving pieces.

Utah doesn't need to move anyone!

 

[FinnishCoyote]

Useful, but not needed addition for Utah:
Timothy Liljegren

Useless and not needed additions for Utah:
Nick Robertson
Cale Jarnkrok
Connor Dewar or Connor Timmins

Useful players for Utah:
Nick Bjugstad
Michael Kesselring
Jack McBain

Pure value might be ok, but this makes Utah lot worse team for their first season

 

[WTFMAN99]

Useful, but not needed addition for Utah:
Timothy Liljegren

Useless and not needed additions for Utah:
Nick Robertson
Cale Jarnkrok
Connor Dewar or Connor Timmins

Useful players for Utah:
Nick Bjugstad
Michael Kesselring
Jack McBain

Pure value might be ok, but this makes Utah lot worse team for their first season

Is Bjugstad / McBain / Stenlund kinda redundant? The Leafs probably need a centre, Arizona appears to have Cooley, Bjugstd, McBain, Hayton, Kerfoot, Stenlund and I suppose in a pinch, Schmaltz.

Maybe the trade can be dumbed down a bit.

 

[BKarchitect]

I mean

Is Bjugstad / McBain / Stenlund kinda redundant? The Leafs probably need a centre, Arizona appears to have Cooley, Bjugstd, McBain, Hayton, Kerfoot, Stenlund and I suppose in a pinch, Schmaltz.

Maybe the trade can be dumbed down a bit.

I mean Kerfoot is more palatable as a winger, McBain can play wing, Stenlund can play RW.

The truth is if you go off NHL depth charts, basically every team has 6-7 centers because once you’ve played center and taken some draws in your career, you get listed as a center, for whatever reason.

In theory, the Leafs have listed at center:
Matthews, Tavares, Domi, Kampf, McMann, and Dewar. But I assume the entire point of the Bjugstad interest would be…Domi is much better as a playmaking winger than a third line center and McMann and Dewar are more wingers at this point. Even though all are listed as centers as their natural position.

So with Utah…they like the optionality they have at center but I doubt they’d consider themselves as having a “surplus” in any way.

Bjugstad isn’t a sacred cow and he is a pending UFA but he is so much more important to that franchises’ line-up than I think most would give him credit for based on his mediocre history. And it’s clear Utah wants to make a statement in their first season. We can argue whether or not they are really at that point but that’s how they are going to enter the season and dealing a very key veteran “glue guy” forward would be antithetical to that. If they fall flat…maybe they move some guys closer to the TDL but certainly not now.

 

[FinnishCoyote]

Is Bjugstad / McBain / Stenlund kinda redundant? The Leafs probably need a centre, Arizona appears to have Cooley, Bjugstd, McBain, Hayton, Kerfoot, Stenlund and I suppose in a pinch, Schmaltz.

Maybe the trade can be dumbed down a bit.

I'd be very hesitant in moving any of our bigger and physical forwards. In recent years Arizona teams got bullied physically, because team was too small. Stenlund will be important part of our PK unit and will not be traded, because he just signed as UFA.

Both of McBain and Bjugstad can be had for the right price, which will not be for futures (maybe Bjugstad can be had for futures at deadline). I just see Liljegren more like luxury, when we have Marino and Durzi + a lot of d-prospects waiting for opportunity.

Also most centers can play on wing and injuries happen, we have a spot in our top-12 forwards with every center you listed.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I mean

I mean Kerfoot is more palatable as a winger, McBain can play wing, Stenlund can play RW.

The truth is if you go off NHL depth charts, basically every team has 6-7 centers because once you’ve played center and taken some draws in your career, you get listed as a center, for whatever reason.

In theory, the Leafs have listed at center:
Matthews, Tavares, Domi, Kampf, McMann, and Dewar. But I assume the entire point of the Bjugstad interest would be…Domi is much better as a playmaking winger than a third line center and McMann and Dewar are more wingers at this point. Even though all are listed as centers as their natural position.

So with Utah…they like the optionality they have at center but I doubt they’d consider themselves as having a “surplus” in any way.

Bjugstad isn’t a sacred cow and he is a pending UFA but he is so much more important to that franchises’ line-up than I think most would give him credit for based on his mediocre history. And it’s clear Utah wants to make a statement in their first season. We can argue whether or not they are really at that point but that’s how they are going to enter the season and dealing a very key veteran “glue guy” forward would be antithetical to that. If they fall flat…maybe they move some guys closer to the TDL but certainly not now.

I'd be very hesitant in moving any of our bigger and physical forwards. In recent years Arizona teams got bullied physically, because team was too small. Stenlund will be important part of our PK unit and will not be traded, because he just signed as UFA.

Both of McBain and Bjugstad can be had for the right price, which will not be for futures (maybe Bjugstad can be had for futures at deadline). I just see Liljegren more like luxury, when we have Marino and Durzi + a lot of d-prospects waiting for opportunity.

Also most centers can play on wing and injuries happen, we have a spot in our top-12 forwards with every center you listed.

Would something around Liljegren for McBain be a possibility? Plus or minus where reasonable

I don't know about McBain's offensive upside but I do think Berube would like him.

I also don't know about dealing Liljegren before Berube can get his hands on him, maybe he is able to get more out of him but it's a bit ahead of the season so it's a fun conversation at least.

 

[seanlinden]

They already have that committee set up. If Liljegren was a shut down D and pk specialist, then it would make sense. Bortuzzo will be adequate for that roll as long as he doesn't have to play every game. As long as Marino can complement Sergachev on the 1st pairing, UtHC will be fine. This is the team GMBA made. The offense will be relentless and the defense will be accountable 2-way. The goalie tandem is probably one of the most underrated in the league. Their #s should be much improved with a much improved D in front of them. This team, as is, will make the playoffs and it won't be as a wild card!


Utah doesn't need to move anyone!

It's still a pretty "light" committee. On a good team, you've got, Serg who's probably a #2. Durzi maybe a #3, Marino a #4, Valimaki a #4, Cole a #5 and Bortuzzo / Kesselring #6s, maybe #5 for Kesselring.

 

[GoldenKnight]

Not a good deal for the Leafs, Liljegren just turned 25 and can shine for them if given the opportunity and powerplay time.

 

[seanlinden]

Not a good deal for the Leafs, Liljegren just turned 25 and can shine for them if given the opportunity and powerplay time.

The challenge is, he's probably not going to get it with the addition of Oliver Ekman Larsson.

He's a guy that much like Rasmus Sandin, probably needs a change of scenery to hit his potential.

 

[backhandsauce]

Buggy will be back in Edm at the deadline....

 

[Schemp]

Buggy will be back in Edm at the deadline....

Why? He will be needed for the playoffs!

 

[John Mandalorian]

Kesselring stood out to me as a pretty good player in the few games I saw.. This deal has way too many moving pieces.

12 parsecs.