NHL Team Power Ratings and Predictions (SRS Algorithm)

[Doctor No]

NHL SRS power ratings for games through March 1, 2016. Home-ice advantage is currently estimated at +0.226 goals/game.

Team | 2015-16 Goal Diff | 2015-16 Schedule | 2015-16 Strength
Washington|

0.984​

|

-0.023​

|

0.961​

|
Florida|

0.413​

|

0.028​

|

0.441​

|
Chicago|

0.422​

|

-0.003​

|

0.419​

|
Tampa Bay|

0.381​

|

0.014​

|

0.395​

|
NY Islanders|

0.377​

|

-0.023​

|

0.355​

|
San Jose|

0.339​

|

-0.003​

|

0.335​

|
NY Rangers|

0.333​

|

-0.016​

|

0.317​

|
Los Angeles|

0.355​

|

-0.049​

|

0.305​

|
Dallas|

0.308​

|

-0.017​

|

0.290​

|
Boston|

0.328​

|

-0.055​

|

0.273​

|
Nashville|

0.154​

|

0.026​

|

0.179​

|
Minnesota|

0.125​

|

0.036​

|

0.161​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.113​

|

0.008​

|

0.121​

|
Anaheim|

0.148​

|

-0.048​

|

0.099​

|
St. Louis|

0.061​

|

-0.003​

|

0.058​

|
Detroit|

-0.032​

|

0.014​

|

-0.017​

|
Montreal|

-0.032​

|

0.002​

|

-0.030​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.177​

|

0.044​

|

-0.134​

|
Colorado|

-0.185​

|

0.022​

|

-0.162​

|
Ottawa|

-0.188​

|

0.015​

|

-0.172​

|
Carolina|

-0.246​

|

0.012​

|

-0.234​

|
New Jersey|

-0.250​

|

0.001​

|

-0.249​

|
Buffalo|

-0.375​

|

0.079​

|

-0.296​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.393​

|

0.049​

|

-0.344​

|
Columbus|

-0.453​

|

0.061​

|

-0.392​

|
Calgary|

-0.429​

|

0.010​

|

-0.418​

|
Vancouver|

-0.452​

|

0.014​

|

-0.438​

|
Arizona|

-0.476​

|

-0.015​

|

-0.491​

|
Edmonton|

-0.554​

|

0.038​

|

-0.516​

|
Toronto|

-0.574​

|

0.054​

|

-0.520​

|

Watch my Avalanche spin downwards.

Washington still has a historical advantage over the field.

 

[Doctor No]

And here's the back-testing through March 1:

Team | Pts Predicted | Pts Achieved
ANA|18|31
CBS|16|24
NAS|21|27
STL|20|24
NYR|22|27
SJS|22|26
TBL|22|26
PIT|20|23
DET|19|21
NYI|19|21
PHI|20|21
CAR|19|20
COL|21|21
WAS|25|25
BOS|25|25
BUF|18|18
FLO|23|23
NJD|19|18
OTT|21|19
LAK|21|19
CHI|20|17
DAL|24|20
MIN|20|16
MTL|20|15
TOR|18|13
WIN|16|11
VAN|17|12
EDM|18|12
CAL|21|13
ARI|18|11

No real magic here - the teams that have been hot lately look better than expected, and the teams that have been "not" lately show the opposite.

One obvious point about SRS systems is that they don't take into account trade effects. No one should be using these things in isolation (if they want to use them to make money).

 

[Doctor No]

And NHL games of March 2, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/2/2016|TOR|WAS|1.71|80%|22%
3/2/2016|CHI|DET|-0.21|46%|29%
3/2/2016|MTL|ANA|0.36|56%|19%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 3, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/3/2016|CAL|BUF|0.34|57%|18%
3/3/2016|CHI|BOS|0.03|51%|22%
3/3/2016|EDM|PHI|0.60|62%|31%
3/3/2016|NYR|PIT|0.03|51%|21%
3/3/2016|MIN|TOR|-0.45|41%|21%
3/3/2016|TBL|OTT|-0.34|43%|24%
3/3/2016|NJD|NAS|0.66|62%|23%
3/3/2016|NYI|WIN|-0.47|41%|18%
3/3/2016|ANA|ARI|-0.38|43%|19%
3/3/2016|FLO|COL|-0.38|43%|19%
3/3/2016|SJS|VAN|-0.55|40%|25%
3/3/2016|MTL|LAK|0.57|60%|21%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 4, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/4/2016|NYR|WAS|0.90|67%|19%
3/4/2016|EDM|CBS|0.27|55%|25%
3/4/2016|NJD|DAL|0.74|64%|24%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 5, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/5/2016|MIN|BUF|-0.21|46%|16%
3/5/2016|CAL|PIT|0.85|66%|20%
3/5/2016|NAS|COL|-0.08|49%|18%
3/5/2016|ANA|LAK|0.37|57%|22%
3/5/2016|CAR|TBL|0.89|67%|22%
3/5/2016|CBS|PHI|0.37|57%|28%
3/5/2016|MTL|WIN|-0.08|49%|17%
3/5/2016|OTT|TOR|-0.09|48%|26%
3/5/2016|WAS|BOS|-0.40|42%|19%
3/5/2016|FLO|ARI|-0.74|37%|20%
3/5/2016|VAN|SJS|1.00|68%|25%

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

This is ****ing cool. Keep it up.

 

[Doctor No]

Thanks!!

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 6, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/6/2016|DAL|OTT|-0.30|44%|23%
3/6/2016|PIT|NJD|-0.16|47%|23%
3/6/2016|NYI|NYR|0.16|53%|22%
3/6/2016|DET|CHI|0.71|64%|28%
3/6/2016|EDM|WIN|0.39|57%|21%
3/6/2016|STL|MIN|0.34|57%|23%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games through March 6, 2016. Home-ice advantage is currently estimated at +0.210 goals/game.

Team | 2015-16 Goal Diff | 2015-16 Schedule | 2015-16 Strength
Washington|

0.954​

|

-0.030​

|

0.924​

|
Chicago|

0.463​

|

0.005​

|

0.468​

|
Tampa Bay|

0.431​

|

0.002​

|

0.432​

|
NY Islanders|

0.413​

|

-0.029​

|

0.384​

|
Florida|

0.323​

|

0.025​

|

0.348​

|
Dallas|

0.343​

|

-0.021​

|

0.322​

|
San Jose|

0.313​

|

-0.010​

|

0.302​

|
Los Angeles|

0.344​

|

-0.043​

|

0.300​

|
Boston|

0.333​

|

-0.041​

|

0.293​

|
NY Rangers|

0.258​

|

0.006​

|

0.263​

|
Nashville|

0.179​

|

0.021​

|

0.201​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.200​

|

-0.006​

|

0.194​

|
Anaheim|

0.234​

|

-0.042​

|

0.193​

|
Minnesota|

0.119​

|

0.036​

|

0.155​

|
St. Louis|

0.090​

|

0.003​

|

0.093​

|
Montreal|

-0.091​

|

0.008​

|

-0.083​

|
Detroit|

-0.123​

|

0.028​

|

-0.095​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.141​

|

0.017​

|

-0.123​

|
Colorado|

-0.209​

|

0.029​

|

-0.180​

|
Ottawa|

-0.224​

|

0.009​

|

-0.215​

|
Carolina|

-0.258​

|

0.018​

|

-0.240​

|
Buffalo|

-0.333​

|

0.064​

|

-0.269​

|
New Jersey|

-0.328​

|

0.009​

|

-0.319​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.375​

|

0.043​

|

-0.332​

|
Vancouver|

-0.422​

|

0.025​

|

-0.397​

|
Calgary|

-0.431​

|

0.017​

|

-0.414​

|
Columbus|

-0.485​

|

0.048​

|

-0.437​

|
Arizona|

-0.462​

|

-0.005​

|

-0.466​

|
Edmonton|

-0.500​

|

0.031​

|

-0.469​

|
Toronto|

-0.594​

|

0.063​

|

-0.531​

|

 

[Doctor No]

Back-testing through March 6:

Team | Pts Predicted | Pts Achieved
ANA|22|37
CBS|19|26
NAS|24|30
STL|21|26
TBL|25|30
NYI|22|25
NYR|25|29
PIT|24|27
SJS|25|28
CAR|20|21
BOS|27|28
BUF|20|21
COL|23|23
PHI|23|23
WAS|29|29
DET|21|21
DAL|26|24
CHI|23|21
NJD|22|20
FLO|26|23
LAK|24|21
OTT|24|21
MIN|24|20
EDM|21|16
WIN|19|14
VAN|19|14
MTL|23|16
ARI|19|13
CAL|23|15
TOR|21|13

 

[Doctor No]

Last but not least, NHL games of March 7, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/7/2016|TBL|PHI|-0.35|43%|28%
3/7/2016|BOS|FLO|0.27|55%|22%
3/7/2016|BUF|TOR|-0.05|49%|21%
3/7/2016|ARI|COL|0.50|59%|15%
3/7/2016|SJS|CAL|-0.51|41%|19%
3/7/2016|WAS|ANA|-0.52|40%|19%
3/7/2016|VAN|LAK|0.91|67%|27%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 8, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/8/2016|DET|CBS|-0.13|47%|27%
3/8/2016|NYR|BUF|-0.31|44%|19%
3/8/2016|OTT|CAR|0.19|54%|25%
3/8/2016|PIT|NYI|0.40|58%|22%
3/8/2016|BOS|TBL|0.30|56%|22%
3/8/2016|DAL|MTL|-0.19|47%|20%
3/8/2016|NAS|WIN|-0.32|44%|18%
3/8/2016|SJS|EDM|-0.56|40%|23%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 9, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/9/2016|NYI|TOR|-0.73|37%|25%
3/9/2016|CHI|STL|-0.17|47%|25%
3/9/2016|NAS|CAL|-0.44|42%|22%
3/9/2016|ANA|COL|-0.13|48%|17%
3/9/2016|ARI|VAN|0.25|55%|23%
3/9/2016|WAS|LAK|-0.38|43%|21%

Interesting that five of six games favor the road team.

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 10, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/10/2016|CAR|BOS|0.77|64%|24%
3/10/2016|BUF|MTL|0.43|58%|19%
3/10/2016|OTT|FLO|0.77|64%|25%
3/10/2016|WIN|DET|0.44|58%|23%
3/10/2016|EDM|MIN|0.87|67%|22%
3/10/2016|NJD|SJS|0.88|66%|23%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 11, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/11/2016|PIT|CBS|-0.37|43%|20%
3/11/2016|PHI|TBL|0.67|63%|28%
3/11/2016|ANA|STL|0.19|54%|25%
3/11/2016|CHI|DAL|0.07|51%|24%
3/11/2016|ARI|CAL|0.31|56%|20%

 

[Stand Witness]

Curious what you appreciations are. I am sure you listed it earlier in the thread but I didn't see it on page one.

E(Home) = some sort of weighted calculation for expected winner (relative to home team)?
Pr(H>0) = Probability of the home team winning?
Pr(3PG) = Probability of a 3 pt game?

Thanks. Keep up the work its a great thread.

 

[Doctor No]

E(Home) = some sort of weighted calculation for expected winner (relative to home team)?
Pr(H>0) = Probability of the home team winning?
Pr(3PG) = Probability of a 3 pt game?

Sorry about that - I really ought to add it to the first page, although at this point we're close enough to the playoffs that I'll probably forget again.

E(Home) is the number of goals that the home team is favored by.

You've got the other two exactly right.

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 12, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/12/2016|CAR|BUF|0.12|52%|22%
3/12/2016|NYI|BOS|0.14|53%|25%
3/12/2016|NYR|DET|-0.20|46%|25%
3/12/2016|COL|WIN|-0.03|49%|13%
3/12/2016|MIN|MTL|0.03|51%|18%
3/12/2016|PHI|FLO|0.63|61%|29%
3/12/2016|TOR|OTT|0.46|58%|27%
3/12/2016|STL|DAL|0.41|58%|25%
3/12/2016|ARI|EDM|0.19|54%|22%
3/12/2016|NAS|VAN|-0.42|42%|27%
3/12/2016|NJD|LAK|0.84|65%|25%
3/12/2016|WAS|SJS|-0.41|42%|20%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 13, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/13/2016|PIT|NYR|0.30|56%|20%
3/13/2016|TBL|CBS|-0.53|40%|21%
3/13/2016|TOR|DET|0.68|63%|30%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 14, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/14/2016|FLO|NYI|0.16|53%|25%
3/14/2016|LAK|CHI|0.27|55%|25%
3/14/2016|NAS|EDM|-0.49|41%|24%
3/14/2016|STL|CAL|-0.40|42%|25%
3/14/2016|NJD|ANA|0.55|60%|24%
3/14/2016|WIN|VAN|0.16|53%|22%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 15, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/15/2016|CAR|WAS|1.28|74%|24%
3/15/2016|NYI|PIT|0.08|51%|21%
3/15/2016|FLO|MTL|-0.26|45%|22%
3/15/2016|MIN|OTT|-0.19|46%|22%
3/15/2016|TBL|TOR|-0.73|36%|24%
3/15/2016|DET|PHI|0.28|55%|33%
3/15/2016|LAK|DAL|0.11|52%|24%
3/15/2016|BOS|SJS|0.22|54%|22%

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 16, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/16/2016|MTL|BUF|0.06|51%|19%
3/16/2016|PHI|CHI|0.59|61%|29%
3/16/2016|STL|EDM|-0.45|41%|27%
3/16/2016|COL|VAN|-0.10|48%|21%
3/16/2016|WIN|CAL|0.13|52%|18%
3/16/2016|NYR|ANA|0.15|53%|20%

 

[Doctor No]

Back-testing through March 15:

Team | Pts Predicted | Pts Achieved
ANA|26|40
CBS|22|28
STL|25|32
NAS|29|35
PIT|28|33
SJS|31|36
CAR|24|27
NYI|28|31
PHI|27|30
NYR|29|32
BOS|33|35
TBL|32|33
COL|26|27
BUF|25|25
LAK|30|30
WAS|34|34
NJD|25|24
FLO|32|30
DET|27|25
OTT|28|26
DAL|31|28
MIN|28|23
CHI|27|22
WIN|23|18
TOR|25|20
VAN|23|18
ARI|23|18
CAL|27|20
MTL|27|20
EDM|25|18

No real surprises - the teams that have come on lately have done better than expected.

 

[Doctor No]

NHL games of March 17, 2016:

Date | Road | Home | E(Home) | Pr(H>0) | Pr(3PG)
3/17/2016|CAR|PIT|0.65|62%|24%
3/17/2016|DET|CBS|-0.11|48%|26%
3/17/2016|MIN|NJD|-0.26|45%|22%
3/17/2016|FLO|TOR|-0.70|38%|25%
3/17/2016|NYI|NAS|0.04|51%|24%
3/17/2016|TBL|DAL|0.15|53%|22%
3/17/2016|SJS|ARI|-0.54|40%|18%
3/17/2016|NYR|LAK|0.42|58%|22%