NHL Players Tiers v1.0

[Mickey Marner]

Bergeron, Pasta, Marchand, McAvoy, Chara (unlisted) all too low.

-Leafs fan

 

[phillyjabroni]

Any data driven model is always going to underrate defensive players. It's a very hard skill to quantify.

There are some models that actually weigh defensive forwards. Evolving Wild's WAR (wins-above-replacement) stat heavily weighs defensive stats for forwards, making Mikko Koivu and Patrice Bergeron some of the most valuable players per their model.

 

[phillyjabroni]

It’s not even a data driven model. It’s just some guy looking at data over a couple years and deciding what he thinks is important in arbitrary cases

The viz from Bill Comeau is simply taking data over a period of time and converting it to percentile ranks. It includes possession and shot quality metrics that can be used to assess players.

 

[Echo Roku]

The viz from Bill Comeau is simply taking data over a period of time and converting it to percentile ranks. It includes possession and shot quality metrics that can be used to assess players.

Nothing you said there refutes anything I said

 

[phillyjabroni]

Anything of substance? Not just post a chart and basically say you see more blue?

He hasn’t even reached ppg once. And there are better offensive players that are very good defensively, too... that you have TWO tiers below

Tarasneko is in the 96th percentile for "Game Score", a metric that is used to quantify how productive a player is in a certain game. Its formula and other information about GS can be found here: Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

 

[phillyjabroni]

Nothing you said there refutes anything I said

I'm not entirely sure what your stating then. The viz that I posted contains substance, the user needs to be able to break it down and understand what it means.

 

[Echo Roku]

I'm not entirely sure what your stating then. The viz that I posted contains substance, the user needs to be able to break it down and understand what it means.

I said a total of one thing and you literally refuted none of it.

 

[Echo Roku]

Tarasneko is in the 96th percentile for "Game Score", a metric that is used to quantify how productive a player is in a certain game. Its formula and other information about GS can be found here: Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score

And?

Just stating a specific stat isn’t an argument

 

[phillyjabroni]

And?

Just stating a specific stat isn’t an argument

Tarasenko has better expected numbers, possession numbers, and is as a whole, more productive on 5v5 than Patrick Kane since 2016.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

List is made up on a combination of tangible stats (goals, assists, etc.) as well as underlying metrics (CF%, rel CF%, xGF%, etc.)

I think that generally it comes down to personal preference with the order of the players within categories. We can go back and forth on Taylor Hall and his contributions compared to the likes of Artemi Panarin and Alex Ovechkin.

To give insight on Nino Niederreiter, he is a top-six caliber winger in terms of scoring efficiency (1.92 P/60 since 2016). He also sports a 54.07 CF%, 6.99 rel CF%, 56.92 xGF%, and 3.85 rel xGF%.

If you actually used xgf% you would know that Laine Barrie and Gallagher and Forsberg are in the wrong spots. I’ll let you figure out which direction. Hint: Gallagher and FF same direction

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Game Score is too points-based for my liking

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Also don’t agree with going all the way back to 2016, I prefer going back to 2017. Your list seems to be overrating guys who had a good 16-17 and have sucked since like Blake Wheeler.

 

[Echo Roku]

Tarasenko has better expected numbers, possession numbers, and is as a whole, more productive on 5v5 than Patrick Kane since 2016.

And?

How on earth does that justify putting him two tiers above pastrnak, Rantanen, and company? Or a whole tier above Kane?

 

[Sstroh84]

Feels odd that Cam Atkinson isn't even on the list. He has been a pretty consistent goal scorer the last couple years and to me should be in the 1A or 1B list.

 

[phillyjabroni]

And?

How on earth does that justify putting him two tiers above pastrnak, Rantanen, and company? Or a whole tier above Kane?

I just explained it. Rantanen's production is widely unstable currently (106 PDO). Pastrnak is probably someone I'd consider throwing closer to Tarasenko. Like I said before, I personally just value what Tarasenko brings 5v5 over the likes of Kane and Pastrnak.

 

[phillyjabroni]

Feels odd that Cam Atkinson isn't even on the list. He has been a pretty consistent goal scorer the last couple years and to me should be in the 1A or 1B list.

Maybe. He's someone I thought about placing with the Jordan Eberles and the Wayne Simmonds'.

 

[TDotMassive]

The below chart does not include rookies or goaltenders. Any sort of questions on my list or tweaks are welcomed and encouraged below.

v1.0: Monday, November 26, 2018.
View attachment 158455

Kopitar still on this list? At what point in the season does he drop a tier?? He looks lost out there...

 

[phillyjabroni]

Kopitar still on this list? At what point in the season does he drop a tier?? He looks lost out there...

Closer to the end of the year, he'll most likely drop in the list. He is deployed heavily in the defensive zone, so that is what is holding his head above the water right now.

 

[triggrman]

Yeah I mean, I just cited a source that factually backs up my claim.
Here is the breakdown of NSH lines at 5v5 last year: NSH 1718 F Lines
Here is this year's: NSH 1819 F Lines

If you'd like for me to confirm the data with him, I'll gladly reach out to him on Twitter. The NHL roster via NHL.com isn't 100% accurate. For example, they list Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier as both centers. Yet they have played 307.49 5v5 TOI together this season. That's 90.27% of Couturiers 5v5 TOI w/ Giroux and 91% of Giroux's time with Couturier. Someone isn't playing center and is playing the wing.

Like I said, I'll gladly reach out to him to see what's up with NSH.

you can if you want both to be correct or go watch a replay of last nights games, and look to see where Forsberg lines up.

From last nights' game according to that site..

 

[Wasted Talent]

They produce pretty similarly in terms of efficiency. 2.03 P/60 for Granlund compared to 1.92 P/60 for Niederreiter.

*since 2016

Nino in 2016-17 season was very different from the Nino we've seen past two seasons. Since the beginning of last season, Nino's P/60 is only 1.55, while Granlund's is 2.19. Corsi is more or less the only statistic where Nino compares favorably.

 

[Echo Roku]

I just explained it. Rantanen's production is widely unstable currently (106 PDO). Pastrnak is probably someone I'd consider throwing closer to Tarasenko. Like I said before, I personally just value what Tarasenko brings 5v5 over the likes of Kane and Pastrnak.

Lol, wtf? You’re really trying to act like PDO makes Rantanen unstable? He was 103 last year. Oh look at all that regression, lol. It’s nonsense to try and use it for individual players like that. Crosby normally has a bit above 100. Must be unstable, lol

You’re overhyping Tarasenko for no good reason. Like really badly and blatantly, too

 

[63 others]

Subban 2 classes over josi. I stopped there

 

[Ezekial]

Also don’t agree with going all the way back to 2016, I prefer going back to 2017. Your list seems to be overrating guys who had a good 16-17 and have sucked since like Blake Wheeler.

Blake Wheeler has sucked since 16-17?

Here I thought 118 points in 103 games since was pretty solid. I guess he'll never live up to that 74 points in 82 games he had in 16-17.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Blake Wheeler has sucked since 16-17?

Here I thought 118 points in 103 games since was pretty solid. I guess he'll never live up to that 74 points in 82 games he had in 16-17.

His 5v5 scoring rate in that span is about 2/3 of Matt Duchene and Yanni Gourde’s. And his possession numbers in that span have fallen from great to slightly above average.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Lol, wtf? You’re really trying to act like PDO makes Rantanen unstable? He was 103 last year. Oh look at all that regression, lol. It’s nonsense to try and use it for individual players like that. Crosby normally has a bit above 100. Must be unstable, lol

You’re overhyping Tarasenko for no good reason. Like really badly and blatantly, too

Senko had an elite 16-17. Since then though he’s about 1.55 p1/60 5v5 which is barely 1st line level.