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Confirmed with Link: NHL & NHLPA Reach tentative agreement on 56 game schedule

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SeaOfBlue said:
Agree on Florida and Carolina, but Boston and NYI are separated by 2 points... So it is really too close to call.

I expect our division to be closer TBH. I think MTL will actually be a little bit further behind the pack in the #6 spot (i.e. like 5 points behind) but I can see only a couple of points separating 2-5. Leafs should dominate though, but maybe not that much :laugh:
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ah yea after reading I somehow moved NYI to #2 in my head and didn't actually inspect the point differential. That's definitely close, and I'd have thought it would be.

weems said:
Haha ya I personally dont think we'd win the division as much as his sim projects but I do think it speaks to the fact that we're probably the only elite team in the division.
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I don't think that's too far off, but I do feel every year Van is going to be a question mark so long as they're drafting in the top 3 and Pettersson is like 23-24.

I have always thought the same thing about Edmonton, but honestly aside from a few surges here and there on the backs of McD and Drai it doesn't really look like they're going to put it together w/ their mid-round picks and what they have right now. I'm comfortable listing them as not an elite team at this point.
 
weems said:
Leafs should dominate a canadian divsion.

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Oh you know what. To predict standings, these guys (Tierney, MBM, EH, etc...) they will run simultations of seasons over and over and, like, average out the results. Each individual simulation will be pretty random but they'll average out to something more reasonable. The #SimulationNumberOne hash tag suggests to me that it is just the first trial simulation of what will be thousands of simulations averaged out. That would explain the extremity of it, and is not actually the prediction of his model.
 
According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the NHL is exploring a potential contingency plan in which all seven of its Canadian clubs (Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Senators, Jets, Flames, Oilers and Canucks) will head south and play the entirety of the 2021 campaign within the United States. (2 days ago).

Could NHL’s 7 Canadian teams be forced to move stateside for 2021 season?

Despite multiple reports that mapped out a framework in which the NHL's seven Canadian-based teams would play exclusively in their own division as part of a regional realignment measure for the 2021 season, it appears as though spiking cases of COVID-19 across North America — and the rapidly shifting protocols put in place across Canada — might severely augment those plans.

According to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, the NHL is exploring a potential contingency plan in which all seven of its Canadian clubs (Maple Leafs, Canadiens, Senators, Jets, Flames, Oilers and Canucks) will head south and play the entirety of the 2021 campaign within the United States. Such a drastic move will likely only come as a last resort, although the NHL is currently grappling with provincial health authorities in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia over the best way to safely get a new season off the ground across the entire country.

The closing of the U.S./Canadian border prompted the need for an All-Canadian division in 2021, but if there is not a universal agreement between the provincial authorities that will easily facilitate travel and other necessary requirements for these seven NHL teams this season, moving down to the U.S. might be the best option for all involved. But just because it's the best option, doesn't mean it won't cause a monumental headache for all involved — especially with the league still aiming for a Jan. 13 start to the new season (a likelihood that dims with each new day).
 
BoredBrandonPridham said:
Oh you know what. To predict standings, these guys (Tierney, MBM, EH, etc...) they will run simultations of seasons over and over and, like, average out the results. Each individual simulation will be pretty random but they'll average out to something more reasonable. The #SimulationNumberOne hash tag suggests to me that it is just the first trial simulation of what will be thousands of simulations averaged out. That would explain the extremity of it, and is not actually the prediction of his model.
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He has probably only run one batch, but that batch likely contains thousands of data points used to come up with the simulation.

He may run thousands of simulations, but I doubt it... And I doubt it will give significantly different information than what is here since he will likely just be using the same data over again.
 
Mess said:
A 56 game schedule against only 6 of the 30 teams, where an all Canadian Div only eliminates 3 of 7 CDN teams, and where 4 qualify for the playoffs, and a Canadian team is guaranteed a 1 in 4 or 25% odds to win the Stanley Cup before the season even starts in a league that has 31 teams. Where a Canadian team under the regular non pandemic rules isn't even guaranteed a playoff spot.

That is because this format guarantees a Canadian team makes the final 4, and can only play 2 of the 24 American teams this year (= do not play >90% of USA based teams) no matter what happens in the regular season or 1st 2 X rounds.

That is all set in stone due to this format.

A Canadian team hasn't won the Cup since 1993 (= 27 years ago) but this stacks the deck heavily in favour of a Canadian team with those 25% guaranteed odds of final 4 and all you have to do is win 2 playoff rounds against none Canadian teams thereafter. You have to love those odds as a Canadian team.
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You do realize that the American teams are playing amongst their own division right? Like this isn't some thing where the 7 Canadian teams play amongst themselves while the other 24 teams carry on as normal. Each division is operating literally the exact same way. So if you think that this cup won't matter, that has absolutely nothing to do with whether a Canadian team wins it or not as whatever team wins it Canadian or American played the same season.
 
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Think some big factors this year:
- coaching
- goalie tandems/load-management
- How teams handle bad blood & toughness

Playing the same teams quite a bit, might see some mini 2,3,4 game series like they do in baseball. Teams built for the playoffs might see benefits in the regular season as well. I bet there will be at least one full-out linebrawl somewhere in the league this year. My bet is Vegas San Jose.
 
CabanaBoy5 said:
Did they put an asterisk on Tampa Bay's win in 2020?

A Stanley Cup win in a 56 game schedule and lengthy playoff is worthy of no asterisk imo.
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Not sure how that’s relevant. Many/most seemed to think conditions specific to last year made it the hardest playoff to play/win. But, that is largely beside the point as well i.e., the most important/relevant info is covered below.

They still had a divisional focus last year.

This year, they moved 2 teams out of our division that have been problematic (better) for us. That should give us some relief and make it easier to get into the playoffs. Lost track of how many times we stated (here) how unfortunate we were to be in the Atlantic and had to compete against two of the best teams in the league.

And, once we are in the playoffs, the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs would be pure divisional play. Canada will be guaranteed one team makes it to the NHL’s final four which is quite unusual.

The two teams that were in the Cup last year end up competing in same division this year.

Not seeing how this isn’t different, and how its not a help to us. Just taking the rational approach versus the emotional one.
 
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Great news. We should be a top 4 club in the Canadian division, but it's going to be a dog fight.
 
Glad to see things have finally moved forward.

Situations like these is why having a guy like Prichard whose a master of paper transactions in the front office could be an advantage
 
CabanaBoy5 said:
Great point when diminishing the value of a Canadian team winning the Cup. After all, I assume the other divisions are only playing teams in their own division.
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Not sure I follow. Why would it diminish the value?
 
Zoltar said:
Not sure how that’s relevant. Many/most seemed to think conditions specific to last year made it the hardest playoff to play/win. But, that is largely beside the point as well i.e., the most important/relevant info is covered below.

They still had a divisional focus last year.

This year, they moved 2 teams out of our division that have been problematic (better) for us. That should give us some relief and make it easier to get into the playoffs. Lost track of how many times we stated (here) how unfortunate we were to be in the Atlantic and had to compete against two of the best teams in the league.

And, once we are in the playoffs, the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs would be pure divisional play. Canada will be guaranteed one team makes it to the NHL’s final four which is quite unusual.

The two teams that were in the Cup last year end up competing in same division this year.

Not seeing how this isn’t different, and how its not a help to us. Just taking the rational approach versus the emotional one.
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But the Leafs odds of advancing against a Canadian opponent are no different than if they played an American team. A Canadian team advancing is of no benefit to the Leafs unless its them doing it.

I dont see how this is anymore an Asterix season vs thr multiple other times the league has changed division or playoff formats in an adhoc manner.
 
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Menzinger said:
But the Leafs odds of advancing against a Canadian opponent are no different than if they played an American team. A Canadian team advancing is of no benefit to the Leafs unless its them doing it.

I dont see how this is anymore an Asterix season vs thr multiple other times the league has changed division or playoff formats in an adhoc manner.
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An asterisk doesn’t necessarily need to be negative, it’s just a way to denote an unusual situation.
 
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If it's just BC holding out, it should be a simple remedy. It's much easier logistically to find an alternate home for one Canadian club in one of the other provinces.
 
Quite the projection there. First overall in the league. First in the division by a longshot. Fantastic if things ultimately work out in that manner. I might think about the team going into the playoffs on cruise control though after likely not having played games with much at stake for a fair while.
 
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