NHL leaders in career goals adjusted for era: Howe 2'd, Jagr 3'd, MARIO is NOT TOP 10!

[gtrower]

What's interesting about adjusting for era is that part of the reason average scoring was so high in the 80s was because of Gretzky. So when adjusting he's getting punished by his own success.

While technically correct, the percentage of goal contributions of one player to a 20/30+ team league average is small enough to be negligible for these purposes.

 

[Regal]

I don’t know if it’s been mentioned, but keep in mind that hockey-reference adjusts every shortened season to 82 games. So in 12-13, Ovechkin had 32 goals in 48 games, but is given 62 adjusted goals because they’re also adjusting his games played to 82 since he played all 48 possible games in the season. Then in 19-20, he had 48 goals in 68 games, but he adjusts to 58 goals because those 68 games are adjusted to 80/81 (he missed one game that year). Same story with his 24 goals in 48 games in the Covid shortened season adjusting to 37 goals because those 48 games are adjusted to 70 games. Not that this just benefits Ovechkin, but they’re not adjusting only his 894 goals here, they’ve also adjusted his projected goals in shortened seasons. So this would be his adjusted total if the ‘12-13 lockout and Covid never happened.

Howe also has his goals adjusted upwards because he frequently played 70-game seasons. And Jagr as well gets a bump from the ‘95 lockout, etc, etc. But it’s different for every player how much these are being adjusted. It would be interesting to see just how their actual goal totals are adjusted.

Edit: and if we do that for both Ovechkin and Howe, Ovechkin would be at 949, and Howe would be at 790.

 

[wmupreds]

Hilarious how Ovechkin haters are "adjusting". f*** off, guy has the most goals in NHL history. He will have that honor well over yours and my expiration dates.

What? Adjusting only makes him look better, that’s kind of the whole point being made here..

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Hilarious how Ovechkin haters are "adjusting". f*** off, guy has the most goals in NHL history. He will have that honor well over yours and my expiration dates.

Unadjusted Ovy is up by 1 over second place 99. Adjusted Ovy is up 74 over second place 9. So, the haters need to work on their hating game.

 

[qcal1427]

While technically correct, the percentage of goal contributions of one player to a 20/30+ team league average is small enough to be negligible for these purposes.

And the HRef formula for adjusted goals/points uses the goals/points of the league minus the individual player anyways

 

[landy]

Really makes you appreciate how iginla mainly and shanahan towards the end did it in the tough eras.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Is there a goals per game adjusted for era?

Here are the top ten using VsX (the system used on the History board - which is different than hockey-reference.com):

Some important notes:

• A fatal flaw with this method is it tends to reward players who had short careers, playing few (if any) games past their prime. Lemieux was very slightly more productive than Ovechkin on a per-game basis, but Ovechkin has maintained his average over 500+ extra games. Players who spent many years playing past their prime (ie Gretzky, Howe, Jagr) look worse than they really should. Arguably looking at most GPG over 10-15 years is a more meaningful number. (I can post that table tomorrow if anyone is interested).
• This data is through the end of the 2023-24 season. Based on this season, Ovechkin's average has probably improved by a small amount. Matthews' average would definitely be worse.

 

[Reality Czech]

Back in the day there were approximately 5 million Canadian lads that skated and played hockey on ponds all winter. That is an inherently larger and more talented pool than any combination you can come up with today that has only ~500k registered Canadian hockey players year over year for ~20 years.

You might be surprised to find out that people actually play hockey outside of Canada

 

[Reality Czech]

NHL fans have this really bizarre obsession with putting down players from the past.

Not just NHL fans. Young people today don't respect their elders.

 

[nowhereman]

Hilarious how Ovechkin haters are "adjusting". f*** off, guy has the most goals in NHL history. He will have that honor well over yours and my expiration dates.

Make sure that helmet is nice and tight.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Not just NHL fans. Young people today don't respect their elders.

 

[TheLegend27]

Not just NHL fans. Young people today don't respect their elders.

I think this has occurred for every generation. I wasn’t around back then, but I’m sure people were putting down Howe or Orr when Wayne was coming in and so on.

 

[wunderpanda]

are there reverse adjusted stats? what would ovi stats look like adjusted for the 50s & 60s or the 80s & 90s?

 

[Bank Shot]

Add in the ice of years past (soft and rutted) and the skates (dull) the sticks (like 2x4’s) and it’s a wonder the players could get around the ice and shoot at all. The cream rises to the top, regardless. IMO OV, in the old six team league, would have been an even better fit than this era. Doug Harvey would fit better in this era.

The ice was probably better back in the day than now.

They had a rink for hockey and it sat empty for the most part when they weren't playing. Most locations were in areas that had hockey weather.

Now you've got the ice going in and out non stop and tonnes of games played in hot and humid climates.

 

[Fatass]

The ice was probably better back in the day than now.

They had a rink for hockey and it sat empty for the most part when they weren't playing. Most locations were in areas that had hockey weather.

Now you've got the ice going in and out non stop and tonnes of games played in hot and humid climates.

The ice technology has increased dramatically over the years. Of course the surface of play is better now than it’s ever been. It’s a testament to the improved technology that games are played in non traditional markets.

 

[JAK]

Here are the top ten using VsX (the system used on the History board - which is different than hockey-reference.com):

View attachment 1008019

Some important notes:

• A fatal flaw with this method is it tends to reward players who had short careers, playing few (if any) games past their prime. Lemieux was very slightly more productive than Ovechkin on a per-game basis, but Ovechkin has maintained his average over 500+ extra games. Players who spent many years playing past their prime (ie Gretzky, Howe, Jagr) look worse than they really should. Arguably looking at most GPG over 10-15 years is a more meaningful number. (I can post that table tomorrow if anyone is interested).
• This data is through the end of the 2023-24 season. Based on this season, Ovechkin's average has probably improved by a small amount. Matthews' average would definitely be worse.

I wonder if it can be further over analyzed by adjusting player's production by age.

Maybe giving more value to a goal scored the more a player age.

 

[wetcoast]

Where does Bossy rank? That list is stupid.

Bossy ranks 73 because he only played 10 seasons with 461 adjusted goals.

He did have 573 NHL goals but it was also in the very high scoring late 70s and early 80s.

Not sure how that list is "stupid"?

Maybe you should check again on what it is?

 

[Sypher04]

Ovechkin is incredible, but adjusted stats are utterly worthless.

 

[Kojo]

Bossy ranks 73 because he only played 10 seasons with 461 adjusted goals.

He did have 573 NHL goals but it was also in the very high scoring late 70s and early 80s.

Not sure how that list is "stupid"?

Maybe you should check again on what it is?

is Ray Bourque better than Bobby Orr? Bourque has a lot more points.

 

[wetcoast]

Doesn't mean anything. It's 100% speculation.

Either you don't understand what adjusted scoring means or what speculation means here.

One can say that the adjusted scoring isn't 100% accurate, it never can be but adjusted scoring is probably more accurate than counting stats between eras with zero context.

It would take a lot of work but an adjusted top line (comparing scoring of the top 18 players in an 06 seasons to the 90 players in a 30 team league for example) stat over time would probably also be more accurate than overall league scoring, but I'm not doing that work.

 

[wetcoast]

is Ray Bourque better than Bobby Orr? Bourque has a lot more points.

Bourque played more than twice as long as Orr right?

The list is adjusted goals not who is better, that's something you are inferring or reading that isn't there.

 

[Kojo]

Bourque played more than twice as long as Orr right?

The list is adjusted goals not who is better, that's something you are inferring or reading that isn't there.

It's a stupid list, like I said the other day.

 

[Reality Czech]

View attachment 1008033View attachment 1008034

Darn tootin' you whippersnapper

 

[Penguin Suited Up]

Doesn't mean anything. It's 100% speculation.

That’s not speculation. It’s a statistical analysis based on historical data.

 

[thekernel]

What's interesting about adjusting for era is that part of the reason average scoring was so high in the 80s was because of Gretzky. So when adjusting he's getting punished by his own success.

One thing that stands out to me watching Gretzky highlights from the 80s is how much he looks like a modern player, while his contemporaries can't keep up (including the goalies). That's what generational means to me, somebody who looks like a damn time-traveler with their understanding of the game. That's what the likes of Ovechkin and McDavid represent. They elevate the game by showing everyone else what's possible.

To me, that's why era adjustment doesn't make a lick of sense. The reason goaltending/defending/strategizing got better is *because* of the scorers of the era. They're directly related...it's how evolution works. Yes, if you drop Crosby into the 80s he'd blow up the league. But Crosby grew up in the game that the 80s created. It never makes sense, and it never will make sense to apply the logic backwards. That's not how time works.