GDT: NHL Free Agent Frenzy 2024

[henchman21]

McDavid had outlier playoffs same as Bouchard. No way they repeat those.

I would not bet against McDavid repeating that at all. He was actually better in the 22 playoffs but the team was worse. Bouchard leeched his points quite a bit... his play wasn't as all world as the numbers would suggest.

Remember the hype around this guy?

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I would not bet against McDavid repeating that at all. He was actually better in the 22 playoffs but the team was worse. Bouchard leeched his points quite a bit... his play wasn't as all world as the numbers would suggest.

C'mon. You always talk about stats and McDavid repeating Gretzky's record.. thats outlier season. I would definitely bet against it being repeated.

Very small chance of happening.

Edmonton had some unsustainable stuff happening in the playoffs. Look at their PK the best in the NHL at 94%.

Regular season PK 79%.

 

[BaconNater]

Vancouver got rid of Ian Cole so that projects them a bit higher this year too in my model

 

[henchman21]

C'mon. You always talk about stats and McDavid repeating Gretzky's record.. thats outlier season. I would definitely bet against it being repeated.

Very small chance of happening.

In 22 McDavid had 10g and 23a in 16 games. That's significantly higher pacing than he had this past season. In 23 he had 8g 12a in 12 games. That's the same points pacing as he had this year. If Edmonton makes the Cup Finals (and it is a big if), I'd be shocked if McDavid doesn't have another 40+ point run.

 

[henchman21]

Vancouver got rid of Ian Cole so that projects them a bit higher this year too in my model

Speaking of Cole... Utah. That's another team that should take a large step forward. I'm not a huge fan of all the players they brought in on defense, but they are without a doubt a huge improvement. If Cooley can establish as a top 6 center, Guenther sticks in the top 6, and Hayton returns to form... that's a playoff team.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

In 22 McDavid had 10g and 23a in 16 games. That's significantly higher pacing than he had this past season. In 23 he had 8g 12a in 12 games. That's the same points pacing as he had this year. If Edmonton makes the Cup Finals (and it is a big if), I'd be shocked if McDavid doesn't have another 40+ point run.

So he would still need to make it to finals, not have any injury etc. yes looking like that it's just about playing enough games. There's so much randomness.

Look at the moneypuck when season starts and their chances of making finals. Making the finals is a BIG IF itself.

We as Avalanche fans should especially how hard it's to repeat Cup runs.

 

[henchman21]

So he would still need to make it to finals, not have any injury etc. yes looking like that it's just about playing enough games. There's so much randomness.

Making it to the finals is the question more than anything else with McDavid IMO. McDavid will do McDavid things if the team can do their part. He will put up massive numbers for whatever games they play.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Making it to the finals is the question more than anything else with McDavid IMO. McDavid will do McDavid things if the team can do their part. He will put up massive numbers for whatever games they play.

It's not even about McDavid. It's about Edmonton making the final and it's a slim chance.

That's why it's so hard to beat this outlier season.

That's what I meant with this. Mathematics makes it pretty clear repeating something like this is very unlikely.

Then you add other factors(injuries, team chemistry, motivation yada yada) and it becomes extremely hard.

 

[henchman21]

It's not even about McDavid. It's about Edmonton making the final and it's a slim chance.

That's why it's so hard to beat this outlier season.

Your post was questioning McDavid's level of play as being an outlier. He's shown this exact level of play for 3 postseasons in a row. Whether or not he hits 40 points is up to them advancing far enough. Not whether or not McDavid is going to play at a high level.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Your post was questioning McDavid's level of play as being an outlier. He's shown this exact level of play for 3 postseasons in a row. Whether or not he hits 40 points is up to them advancing far enough. Not whether or not McDavid is going to play at a high level.

Okay, if you got it that way, then you got it wrong. What I meant was repeating Gretzky's assist record won't happen again. Odds are against it. Or whatever point total he scored this season in the playoffs.

Odds are against him.

He's been lucky with injuries too.

Either way, done with this now because obviously this is not going anywhere.

 

[dahrougem2]

Utah > Vegas next season

 

[The Abusement Park]

Okay, if you got it that way, then you got it wrong. What I meant was repeating Gretzky's assist record won't happen again. Odds are against it. Or whatever point total he scored this season in the playoffs.

Odds are against him.

He's been lucky with injuries too.

Either way, done with this now because obviously this is not going anywhere.

*McDavids assist record

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Speaking of Cole... Utah. That's another team that should take a large step forward. I'm not a huge fan of all the players they brought in on defense, but they are without a doubt a huge improvement. If Cooley can establish as a top 6 center, Guenther sticks in the top 6, and Hayton returns to form... that's a playoff team.

I've been really happy for Bill Armstrong in all of this change. He's finally been given the greenlight to be an actual NHL GM instead of a dead cap buyer. Now we'll get to see how good of a GM he actually is.

 

[UnkleKraker]

Liked what the Oilers did yesterday. Other than that a lot of bad contracts signed. What are the Kraken doing giving out those huge contracts to Montour and Stephanson? Those will age terribly.

As a Washington state resident I was hoping folks were wrong about Francis but all signs support him being a pretty bad GM. Some of their PR yesterday was pretty cringe too. Their is a reason I am still primarily an Av(e)s fan,

 

[MacKaRant]

So much that I seemed to miss yesterday, what on earth are the Sens and Kraken doing?

I was beginning to like Utah but then I see they signed Ian Cole.

Is Toronto really keeping Marner?

Ian Cole probably a big fan of polygamist lifestyle, makes a lot of sense

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Btw, while it's disappointing we didn't sign anybody new but holy smokes I saw a lot of bad deals being made by GMs.. who the hell pays them money to make these deals? It's like GMs lose their brain when there's player available for free. Even freaking Trenin got three mil. Literally insane.

There were bunch of other deals too.. also some RFA signings which were wtf.

In a sense I am happy we have GM who has more brain than this, because otherwise we would be in trouble. Good good.

 

[MacKaRant]

On the flip side, Bouchard could take a step forward defensively, Broberg looked really good in the playoffs, and they've solidified their bottom 6. I'd say odds are higher they slightly improve vs take a step back.

In all your posts advocating for Edmonton's defense, I notice you've studiously avoided mentioning a certain player whose name rhymes with Purse

 

[henchman21]

My thoughts on the West:

Edmonton - best team on paper by a good margin, age a significant concern

Vancouver - Up and coming team, needs one good top 4D to round out the lineup. Most aggressive GM in the business, so I expect they'll address that. They need Demko to stay healthy and Petey to play well in the playoffs.


Dallas - Likely a small step back from last year's team. Bischel will need to adjust quickly for the Stars to not have to add 2 defensemen at the deadline. Up front they should probably improve a bit. Stankoven full time in the NHL, Johnston looks prime to take another step, and adding Bourque to the mix now too. Blumel might be a sneaky bottom 6 addition too.
Colorado - A step back from last playoff's team. Losing Walker and the forward depth is going to hurt in the interim. Going to be heavily reliant on treading water for the first half and then adding at the deadline. Landy and Nuke's situations could change the outlook. If either don't play up to previous levels (or are suspended), the forward group is a good chunk worse. If they return to form and the Avs add a good bottom six player, the forward group should take a step forward and push up.

Utah - I'm a big believer in their young forward talent. They just need it to come together. Adding two legit top 4D and while Serg is flawed, he can add an element they simply haven't had from the backend. They probably need one more good defensemen to jump into the Dallas/Colorado group, but they are close.


Vegas - They have a heavy reliance on some older guys with some regression and injury questions. If Hertl, Stone, and Pietrangelo all have good years, they could elevate. Otherwise they look to be holding a fringe playoff spot or out completely.
Nashville - They clearly added talent yesterday and are a better team. Not sure they are THAT much better. They could jump ahead of Vegas though and it wouldn't surprise me.

LAK - Just good enough to compete for the playoffs right now. If Kuemper is average, they may jump ahead of Vegas, but if he's not they may fall out.
Minny - I'm not a huge believer in all of their young talent (thought really like some like Faber), so they are probably a touch low. If Rossi/Ohgren/Peart/Lambos all translate... they could move up.
StL - This might be underrating them, but a big ol ball of meh. They need a high end talent and fast.
Seattle - They need the young talent to break through and improve the level as a whole for the team. Montour will end up a bad contract, but he should really improve their puck movement next season.
Anaheim - They have the talent to be higher, but it needs to come together.

San Jose - Some projection here, but adding Smith and Celebrini will add a bunch of talent. Walman should improve their defense, but it is very rough in that area right now.

Chicago - One more year away.

Calgary - mid teardown and will fall quickly

 

[jaisen73]

Just a general assessment on the signings yesterday. The cap hell situation being what it is, I give Drouin and CMac high marks for getting a sweetheart of a deal done. And given that the rest was hunting through the bargain bins I think who they brought in are, while not remotely exciting, all capable of filling roles either on the main roster or first call-up. The only one in the bunch I could see exceeding expectations is Parker Kelly. I suspect he'll become a fixture of the 4th line.

 

[henchman21]

In all your posts advocating for Edmonton's defense, I notice you've studiously avoided mentioning a certain player whose name rhymes with Purse

Nurse with Ceci was a pairing that is a complete disaster. Nurse with Broberg was passable to even good at a middle pairing. Nurse needs a puck mover next to him.

All indications are that Edmonton as a team are a top 10 defensive level team. They are not elite like Florida or Carolina was (though both take a step back), but certainly good enough.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Just a general assessment on the signings yesterday. The cap hell situation being what it is, I give Drouin and CMac high marks for getting a sweetheart of a deal done. And given that the rest was hunting through the bargain bins I think who they brought in are, while not remotely exciting, all capable of filling roles either on the main roster or first call-up. The only one in the bunch I could see exceeding expectations is Parker Kelly. I suspect he'll become a fixture of the 4th line.

We will bargain bin someone in the next one week or two I think. We'll wait out like we did with Tatar.

 

[MacKaRant]

One additional thought on Edmonton: there is an article that says the Oilers front office won't let Draisaitl walk into UFA status: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...eon-draisaitl-play-out-final-year-of-contract

Any predictions on what's going to happen there? No offense to our Edmonton-based posters, but I can't see Draisaitl voluntarily re-upping in Edmonton. I think their front office would be stupid to trade him instead of letting that team go on one more run together regardless of whether Draisaitl commits to the team long- term, but the rumors say that asset management might win the day.

Could Draisaitl refusing to sign long term blow up that team?

 

[Peter Peckerwood]

Did we trade Rants for scraps, yet?

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

One additional thought on Edmonton: there is an article that says the Oilers front office won't let Draisaitl walk into UFA status: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...eon-draisaitl-play-out-final-year-of-contract

Any predictions on what's going to happen there? No offense to our Edmonton-based posters, but I can't see Draisaitl voluntarily re-upping in Edmonton. I think their front office would be stupid to trade him instead of letting that team go on one more run together regardless of whether Draisaitl commits to the team long- term, but the rumors say that asset management might win the day.

Could Draisaitl refusing to sign long term blow up that team?

Praying all this blows up in their faces and Drai walks next summer.

 

[S E P H]

So which players do we still want Avs to go after? Kylington will probably be the best of the rest, and Barabanov as a bottom 6 role. Yes please. Blackwell is another one to look for along with JvR and Cousins potentially, but I rather not have Cousins.

Utah > Vegas next season

You sure? Vegas will always be in big game hunting, I could easily see them cut ties with Stone and give him to a team that still highly values him and use those assets to get Marner who would be better insulated than in Toronto.