NHL Expansion back on agenda?

[ponder719]

I think you could talk that one in circles. No, the NHL won't go to a market just because the other big 3 are there, but If the NBA, NFL, and MLB are all already there, it's a pretty good indicator that it's a good market. The biggest names in expansion right now are Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix. What do they have in common?

MSA of 5M+ and no NHL team.

 

[Tawnos]

I think you could talk that one in circles. No, the NHL won't go to a market just because the other big 3 are there, but If the NBA, NFL, and MLB are all already there, it's a pretty good indicator that it's a good market. The biggest names in expansion right now are Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix. What do they have in common?

Like I said, it's just a weird way of looking at it.

You know what they all have in common? They're all south of the 35th parallel, which has about as much importance in this conversation as the presence of the other leagues.

 

[tucker3434]

Like I said, it's just a weird way of looking at it.

You know what they all have in common? They're all south of the 35th parallel, which has about as much importance in this conversation as the presence of the other leagues.

Well, we aren't headed to Mexico City any time soon.

There absolutely is value in being able to look and see how the market responds to other franchises at the highest level of their sport. I would be shocked if the Atlanta Braves weren't brought up during Atlanta NHL expansion talks. Their move to the burbs is exactly what's being planned for the next NHL franchise.

 

[Tawnos]

Well, we aren't headed to Mexico City any time soon.

There absolutely is value in being able to look and see how the market responds to other franchises at the highest level of their sport. I would be shocked if the Atlanta Braves weren't brought up during Atlanta NHL expansion talks. Their move to the burbs is exactly what's being planned for the next NHL franchise.

Nothing you just wrote is about the presence of teams in the markets. You look at other organizations to see what they're doing that works, absolutely. You don't just say "oh, they have all 3 leagues. Let's go there!"

OK, so here's another way of looking at the point I'm making here. Cleveland has NFL, MLB, NBA. The NHL really has no interest in going to that market. My city is often rumored for an MLB expansion team, but if Charlotte did get one it wouldn't make the NHL sit up and say "we should be there too!"

Here too, the opposite is also the case. Tampa has 3 of the big 4, including the NHL. St Louis. Pittsburgh. Nashville if they get an MLB team will be there also. None of these markets are ones the NBA seems to be interested in, though Tampa is because of the proximity of Orlando. Which cities are on their radar that already have NHL teams? Seattle, which is a top-15 market and the largest without an NBA team... and Vegas, which has the massive X factor of their entertainment industry.

 

[tucker3434]

Nothing you just wrote is about the presence of teams in the markets. You look at other organizations to see what they're doing that works, absolutely. You don't just say "oh, they have all 3 leagues. Let's go there!"

OK, so here's another way of looking at the point I'm making here. Cleveland has NFL, MLB, NBA. The NHL really has no interest in going to that market. My city is often rumored for an MLB expansion team, but if Charlotte did get one it wouldn't make the NHL sit up and say "we should be there too!"

Here too, the opposite is also the case. Tampa has 3 of the big 4, including the NHL. St Louis. Pittsburgh. Nashville if they get an MLB team will be there also. None of these markets are ones the NBA seems to be interested in, though Tampa is because of the proximity of Orlando. Which cities are on their radar that already have NHL teams? Seattle, which is a top-15 market and the largest without an NBA team... and Vegas, which has the massive X factor of their entertainment industry.

I'm not talking about markets that are already covered. No, Ohio and NC don't need two NHL teams. At least, not right now. Florida does not need 2 teams within 2 hours of each other. The Bay Area doesn't need a team on each side of the bay. Those are all effectively 4 sport markets. If there weren't teams in Columbus, Raleigh, Tampa and San Jose, the NHL would absolutely be looking to get in there.

I think it's probably similar going in the other direction. NBA has Memphis and Philly. They don't need Nashville or Pittsburgh. I expect the NBA will be in Seattle and Vegas before too long.

 

[New Jersey Devil]

In hindsight, the time to attempt to establish Toronto 2 was the late 70s/early 80s. My personal target would be the Scouts/Rockies, if either of those relocations had put a team in Toronto, the league would have had a Toronto franchise in each conference, and would have kept the NYC market to two teams. Granted, they'd have to come up with compensation to the Leafs, which would likely have been punitive, but what would seem punitive then would seem paltry in hindsight, once they'd had a few decades to develop a fanbase.

NYC area having 3 NHL teams is great! I'm glad that the Rockies relocated to New Jersey!

 

[mouser]

I think you could talk that one in circles. No, the NHL won't go to a market just because the other big 3 are there, but If the NBA, NFL, and MLB are all already there, it's a pretty good indicator that it's a good market. The biggest names in expansion right now are Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix. What do they have in common?

What do Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix have in common? They’re the largest markets without a NHL team, all in the top dozen media markets and growing at a rate higher than the national average.

Milwaukee has the NBA, NFL and MLB, but the NHL has shown no interest in placing a NHL team there. Why? Milwaukee is in the mid to bottom 30’s of media markets and likely to fall further down the rankings in the future.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm not talking about markets that are already covered. No, Ohio and NC don't need two NHL teams. At least, not right now. Florida does not need 2 teams within 2 hours of each other. The Bay Area doesn't need a team on each side of the bay. Those are all effectively 4 sport markets. If there weren't teams in Columbus, Raleigh, Tampa and San Jose, the NHL would absolutely be looking to get in there.

I think it's probably similar going in the other direction. NBA has Memphis and Philly. They don't need Nashville or Pittsburgh. I expect the NBA will be in Seattle and Vegas before too long.

There is no such thing as an “NC market.” Raleigh and Charlotte are not the same market. Charlotte is absolutely not covered by the Hurricanes. Yeah, there are Hurricanes fans here to be sure. But considering this market covered is misinformed. Same goes for Cleveland.

Tampa I’ll grant a little, which I mentioned in my post. But that’s only because Orlando and Tampa aren’t even 90 miles apart. To be fair, I also always forget how close Sacramento is to the bay.

 

[tucker3434]

What do Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix have in common? They’re the largest markets without a NHL team, all in the top dozen media markets and growing at a rate higher than the national average.

Milwaukee has the NBA, NFL and MLB, but the NHL has shown no interest in placing a NHL team there. Why? Milwaukee is in the mid to bottom 30’s of media markets and likely to fall further down the rankings in the future.

Yeah, the other leagues tend to pick good markets. Isn’t that the point?

Milwaukee is a good one though. I forgot about them. But they are closer to Chicago’s sports teams than their own “hometown” Packers. Milwaukee is not a market I would expect any of the big 4 to move into today.

There is no such thing as an “NC market.” Raleigh and Charlotte are not the same market. Charlotte is absolutely not covered by the Hurricanes. Yeah, there are Hurricanes fans here to be sure. But considering this market covered is misinformed. Same goes for Cleveland.

Tampa I’ll grant a little, which I mentioned in my post. But that’s only because Orlando and Tampa aren’t even 90 miles apart. To be fair, I also always forget how close Sacramento is to the bay.

Oh get out of here. People in Birmingham, Alabama are Atlanta sports fans and they don’t even share a state. If Raleigh and Charlotte aren’t sharing fans, that’s their own problem. They definitely aren’t big enough to merit two separate fan bases. And I know for a fact it doesn’t apply to the Panthers because I see their stuff all over the state.

 

[GKJ]

I'm not talking about markets that are already covered. No, Ohio and NC don't need two NHL teams. At least, not right now. Florida does not need 2 teams within 2 hours of each other. The Bay Area doesn't need a team on each side of the bay. Those are all effectively 4 sport markets. If there weren't teams in Columbus, Raleigh, Tampa and San Jose, the NHL would absolutely be looking to get in there.

I think it's probably similar going in the other direction. NBA has Memphis and Philly. They don't need Nashville or Pittsburgh. I expect the NBA will be in Seattle and Vegas before too long.

NBA doesn’t need Pittsburgh, but Philly has nothing to do with that.

 

[Tawnos]

Oh get out of here. People in Birmingham, Alabama are Atlanta sports fans and they don’t even share a state. If Raleigh and Charlotte aren’t sharing fans, that’s their own problem. They definitely aren’t big enough to merit two separate fan bases. And I know for a fact it doesn’t apply to the Panthers because I see their stuff all over the state.

"If they're not sharing fans that's their own problem" might require you to reflect a little bit more on what you're talking about here. The Hurricanes are an afterthought in Charlotte. They made some decent inroads when the Charlotte AHL team was the Canes affiliate, but that support was soft and since they switched affiliates, you see less and less Hurricanes stuff here. Beyond that, there's no real marketing effort for the Hurricanes in Charlotte and there never has been. The same is true of the Hornets in Raleigh. They're an afterthought. Neither team really goes after the other city in the state. Do you know why? Because there wouldn't be much of a return for doing it. The cities are rivals.

As has been discussed here plenty of times, the NFL is a different animal because it only requires a once per week commitment and is a totally different fan experience from the other leagues.

As for Birmingham, I believe it for the Braves and the Falcons. The Braves because of the lingering effect of broadcasting their games on TBS for all those year. Hell, most baseball fans in Charlotte are Braves fans unless they're transplants. The Falcons because of the same thing with the Panthers. I do not believe that there are a lot of Hawks fans in Birmingham, though. Also, Birmingham is significantly smaller than Atlanta so it's more likely for them to get sucked into Atlanta's gravity. Charlotte and Raleigh were similarly sized for a long time (though Charlotte has been separating a little bit). Neither can pull in the other.

Point is, your thinking that Charlotte and Raleigh share a market just isn't the case.

 

[ponder719]

I'm not talking about markets that are already covered. No, Ohio and NC don't need two NHL teams. At least, not right now. Florida does not need 2 teams within 2 hours of each other. The Bay Area doesn't need a team on each side of the bay. Those are all effectively 4 sport markets. If there weren't teams in Columbus, Raleigh, Tampa and San Jose, the NHL would absolutely be looking to get in there.

I think it's probably similar going in the other direction. NBA has Memphis and Philly. They don't need Nashville or Pittsburgh. I expect the NBA will be in Seattle and Vegas before too long.

Saying "the NBA has Philly, they don't need Pittsburgh" from a market coverage perspective isn't like saying "they don't need teams on each side of the bay"; it's like saying "the NBA has Los Angeles, they don't need San Francisco." Pennsylvania is three different states stuffed in a burlap sack, there is almost nothing Philly and Pittsburgh have in common except Pennsyltucky hates us both.

Now, Pittsburgh is a materially smaller city, so no, the NBA probably isn't anxious to put a team there, but it has nothing to do with the presence or absence of the Sixers. Pittsburgh is substantially closer to the Cavs than the Sixers; if anything, that's the coverage overlap.

 

[tucker3434]

"If they're not sharing fans that's their own problem" might require you to reflect a little bit more on what you're talking about here. The Hurricanes are an afterthought in Charlotte. They made some decent inroads when the Charlotte AHL team was the Canes affiliate, but that support was soft and since they switched affiliates, you see less and less Hurricanes stuff here. Beyond that, there's no real marketing effort for the Hurricanes in Charlotte and there never has been. The same is true of the Hornets in Raleigh. They're an afterthought. Neither team really goes after the other city in the state. Do you know why? Because there wouldn't be much of a return for doing it. The cities are rivals.

As has been discussed here plenty of times, the NFL is a different animal because it only requires a once per week commitment and is a totally different fan experience from the other leagues.

As for Birmingham, I believe it for the Braves and the Falcons. The Braves because of the lingering effect of broadcasting their games on TBS for all those year. Hell, most baseball fans in Charlotte are Braves fans unless they're transplants. The Falcons because of the same thing with the Panthers. I do not believe that there are a lot of Hawks fans in Birmingham, though. Also, Birmingham is significantly smaller than Atlanta so it's more likely for them to get sucked into Atlanta's gravity. Charlotte and Raleigh were similarly sized for a long time (though Charlotte has been separating a little bit). Neither can pull in the other.

Point is, your thinking that Charlotte and Raleigh share a market just isn't the case.

As far as the big 4 sports are concerned, they do. Nobody is going to look to put a team in Raleigh if one exists in Charlotte and vice versa. I’d always heard that they called two of the teams “Carolina” so they could pretend to represent South Carolina as well. Maybe untrue, but seems plausible with there being zero pro teams there. I also know that they tried to draw Thrashers fans after their move. I have trouble believing they aren't expecting to draw from a city within the state that's 2.5 hours away. It is what's going to be on their regional sports broadcasts.

As far as rivals go, how? My family is from NC. They went to schools all over the state. My wife got one of her degrees from Duke. They hate their college rivals and the cities they come from. Nobody ever complains about Charlotte.

Saying "the NBA has Philly, they don't need Pittsburgh" from a market coverage perspective isn't like saying "they don't need teams on each side of the bay"; it's like saying "the NBA has Los Angeles, they don't need San Francisco." Pennsylvania is three different states stuffed in a burlap sack, there is almost nothing Philly and Pittsburgh have in common except Pennsyltucky hates us both.

Now, Pittsburgh is a materially smaller city, so no, the NBA probably isn't anxious to put a team there, but it has nothing to do with the presence or absence of the Sixers. Pittsburgh is substantially closer to the Cavs than the Sixers; if anything, that's the coverage overlap.

Probably similar. So it's Cleveland that's 2 hours from a relatively smaller market n Pittsburgh. Not Philly.

And just in general, I think the NBA has done a better job getting to and staying in the bigger markets. It's the NHL that has some very big gaps to fill.

 

[StreetHawk]

And just in general, I think the NBA has done a better job getting to and staying in the bigger markets. It's the NHL that has some very big gaps to fill.

NHL did go to ATL and AZ, but had issues. And had opportunities to get into Houston in the late 90's expansion but couldn't make it work with any of the 3 bids at the time.

NHL and NBA are different leagues, but in today's world, if a city only has 1 of those teams, it's pretty much dependent on that owner buying the new team. Barring an unusual situation with the arena. Seattle, city owns the land, OVG owns the arena and have a minority stake in the Kraken. Sonics, when they return will play out of that arena as well.
Or there is another arena that will be built for the new team. Outside of NY/LA, how many other cities do that and how far apart are those arenas? Miami/Sunrise, Minneapolis/St. Paul,

Relocation to Colorado/Dallas worked because they went to old barns that needed replacing and the city controlled the old barn. So, they went from like 0 to splitting 50/50 with the nba club and vice versa for the NBA. NBA club won't cut their share from 100% down to 50% to share with an NHL team.

 

[aqib]

Nothing you just wrote is about the presence of teams in the markets. You look at other organizations to see what they're doing that works, absolutely. You don't just say "oh, they have all 3 leagues. Let's go there!"

OK, so here's another way of looking at the point I'm making here. Cleveland has NFL, MLB, NBA. The NHL really has no interest in going to that market. My city is often rumored for an MLB expansion team, but if Charlotte did get one it wouldn't make the NHL sit up and say "we should be there too!"

Here too, the opposite is also the case. Tampa has 3 of the big 4, including the NHL. St Louis. Pittsburgh. Nashville if they get an MLB team will be there also. None of these markets are ones the NBA seems to be interested in, though Tampa is because of the proximity of Orlando. Which cities are on their radar that already have NHL teams? Seattle, which is a top-15 market and the largest without an NBA team... and Vegas, which has the massive X factor of their entertainment industry.

I am curious. Do major leagues consider Tampa and Orlando as one market? Like I don't remember Orlando being a contender for an NFL team, except for Al Davis apparently touring the stadium formerly known as the Citrus Bowl once. Or Tampa being a contender for an NBA team. The distance between the two is bigger than Balitmore and DC and they both have MLB and NFL teams.

 

[Tawnos]

As far as the big 4 sports are concerned, they do. Nobody is going to look to put a team in Raleigh if one exists in Charlotte and vice versa. I’d always heard that they called two of the teams “Carolina” so they could pretend to represent South Carolina as well. Maybe untrue, but seems plausible with there being zero pro teams there. I also know that they tried to draw Thrashers fans after their move. I have trouble believing they aren't expecting to draw from a city within the state that's 2.5 hours away. It is what's going to be on their regional sports broadcasts.

As far as rivals go, how? My family is from NC. They went to schools all over the state. My wife got one of her degrees from Duke. They hate their college rivals and the cities they come from. Nobody ever complains about Charlotte.

"As far as the big 4 sports are concerned, they do"... this is a de facto statement that just doesn't really match up with the reality. Marketing efforts that have happened in the past for the other city haven't borne any fruit. Yes, Charlotte is in the Hurricanes broadcasting zone, but we're also in the Cincinnati Reds broadcasting zone, so that shows you how much that's worth.

The rivalry isn't a Boston-New York level thing, but it does exist. It's pretty low-key, honestly, but it does exist. While it's mostly a kind of thing where we can all laugh about it, it still is a factor that prevents sports teams in the state from really getting a foothold in the other market. People here mostly view the Canes as a Raleigh thing that we don't need to care about locally. It's just the way it is.

A Charlotte hockey fan is most likely going to be a Hurricanes fan, but there's just not that much market penetration here. Nothing that would prevent an NHL team from succeeding (there are other factors that would).

 

[Tawnos]

I am curious. Do major leagues consider Tampa and Orlando as one market? Like I don't remember Orlando being a contender for an NFL team, except for Al Davis apparently touring the stadium formerly known as the Citrus Bowl once. Or Tampa being a contender for an NBA team. The distance between the two is bigger than Balitmore and DC and they both have MLB and NFL teams.

While they're two distinct markets, I do think they're viewed as too close to make another team worth it. In good traffic, it's not even an hour and a half to get from the Lightning arena to the Magic arena.

Regarding Baltimore and Washington each having both MLB and NFL, I kind of think that's a relic of a time where there was less population in the south and west.

 

[tucker3434]

NHL did go to ATL and AZ, but had issues. And had opportunities to get into Houston in the late 90's expansion but couldn't make it work with any of the 3 bids at the time.

NHL and NBA are different leagues, but in today's world, if a city only has 1 of those teams, it's pretty much dependent on that owner buying the new team. Barring an unusual situation with the arena. Seattle, city owns the land, OVG owns the arena and have a minority stake in the Kraken. Sonics, when they return will play out of that arena as well.
Or there is another arena that will be built for the new team. Outside of NY/LA, how many other cities do that and how far apart are those arenas? Miami/Sunrise, Minneapolis/St. Paul,

Relocation to Colorado/Dallas worked because they went to old barns that needed replacing and the city controlled the old barn. So, they went from like 0 to splitting 50/50 with the nba club and vice versa for the NBA. NBA club won't cut their share from 100% down to 50% to share with an NHL team.

Maybe the NBA does a better job vetting owners. Maybe they don’t have to because their valuations are so much higher. Maybe it’s just because the NHL is a 4th place league.

The NBA rarely has to exit markets that are working for the other leagues. In my lifetime, they left Vancouver, but they were just hockey otherwise. Charlotte, very briefly, but also only NFL. The Nets moved 13 miles away. Seattle is the only real miss. But Seattle is a midsized market and they’re probably going to fix that before too long. So while the NBA is missing one top 15 market, the NHL is missing 3 top 10. The NHL clearly has some low hanging fruit.

Atlanta has two groups unrelated to the Hawks. Phoenix has Ishbia who apparently wants in. Those are both pretty clear paths. Houston a little bit less so since Fertitta wants to play hardball on negotiations. But I can’t tell how much of that is just gamesmanship. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if that announcement just dropped out of the sky one day.

 

[aqib]

While they're two distinct markets, I do think they're viewed as too close to make another team worth it. In good traffic, it's not even an hour and a half to get from the Lightning arena to the Magic arena.

Regarding Baltimore and Washington each having both MLB and NFL, I kind of think that's a relic of a time where there was less population in the south and west.

Baltimore got the Ravens in 1996. At the time the state was making that deal they were also negotitating with the Redskins to move them less than 40 miles away. The Nationals moved to DC in 2005. So its not like it was too long ago.

Do Orlando people root for Tampa teams and vice versa?