Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[Stephen]

Just thinking out loud, but with the total disruption to the junior developmental levels for this season and for who knows how long, I’m curious if we’ll see a drop off in talent coming up through the draft the next few seasons. What would be the strategy there regarding draft picks? Have more picks to play the odds, or divest in picks so to turn futures into assets and avoid the dud drafts?

 

[Maplebeasts]

This sounds like a word for word description of Polak.

Yeah that sounds about right. Thankfully he has all the time in the world to figure it out so I'm sure he'll end up better than Polak. I think Guhle will be an NHLer but I don't see anything more than a great shutdown #5 guy.

 

[Stephen]

"No, we're not selecting Braden Schneider."

Braden Schneider isn’t Luke Schenn.

 

[JSn0w93]

I think we get a real good prospect at 44 as well with the names that might be available there.

 

[Stephen]

Is there someone likely to be available at 15 close to being NHL ready?

Well, according to people who are watching, Braden Schneider.

 

[KMNRB]

saw something similar to this in twitter.
who would be your A) Dream Weaver pick B) Realistic Happy pick C) Disappointing pick?

mine would be

dream weaver pick)
1) Yaroslav Askarov
2)Jamie Drysdale

realistic happy pick)
1) Rodion Amirov
2) Hendrix Lapierre

dissapointing pick)
1) Dawson Mercer
2) Kaiden Guhle

what would yours look like?

dream weaver (only realistic in a trade-up scenario)
1) Askarov
2) Drysdale
3) Sanderson

realistic happy
1) Jarvis/Quinn/Holtz/Lundell (well, any dropper from the top 13)
2) Lapierre
3) Amirov
4) Trade down and get another 2nd rounder

disappointing
1) Trade the pick away
2) Trade down even though a "dream weaver" player drop to us (though I guess they did all right with the Sandin pick instead of picking Bokk)
3) Reach to make a pick without trading down

If they trade 1st rounder for a young RHD, I prefer they use the pick next year instead. This year's pick should be ready to play under ELC before Matthews' contract expires, and that can be immensely valuable in the last couple of years of our "cup window". Next year's pick is much less likely (poor draft, likely worst drafting position, and the player being one year younger).

 

[Maplebeasts]

Braden Schneider isn’t Luke Schenn.

No but he's not top 15 pick good either.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Their draft philosophy seems to be this: If you change the player's height to 5-11, would you still rank him as high/low? If Schneider is 5-11 instead of 6-2, would he still be a mid 1st rounder or a 2nd rounder.

Not that I totally agree with this philosophy but that seems to be the way drafts went since Hunter left the organization.

Yeah that's the strategy and it doesn't make any sense. Size is a big asset.

 

[Fogelhund]

Dubas drafts players, only 6' and above this draft... leafs fanbase minds blow.

 

[JSn0w93]

Dubas hasn't given me a reason to question his drafting yet. His 2019 Draft is looking impressive right now to get 4 quality prospects (Robertson, Kokkonen, Abramov, Abruzzese) and interesting wildcards (Koster, and Loponen) without having a 1st round pick. So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with whoever he chooses. It's exciting to have a 1st again along with a good number of picks later in the draft.

 

[Fogelhund]

Just thinking out loud, but with the total disruption to the junior developmental levels for this season and for who knows how long, I’m curious if we’ll see a drop off in talent coming up through the draft the next few seasons. What would be the strategy there regarding draft picks? Have more picks to play the odds, or divest in picks so to turn futures into assets and avoid the dud drafts?

The development of many of these players will definitely take a hit. What if there is no CHL season this year, what will players do? Will some go to Europe, is that even an option?

How far in advance have teams scouted? Will they be ready to draft players, that haven't played in a year and a half, if the season is cancelled? It's probable that the draft would place a premium on Euro players, who had played for the year, and developed more, who might be more NHL ready... Draft eligibles would far more likely be sent back to Junior.

I wonder what will happen with players drafted this year. It would be nice to be able to place picks, into AHL teams for the year, if the CHL doesn't play...particularly higher round picks.

 

[supermann_98]

How would people feel about Joni Jurmo for our second? He's easily one of my targets. Really similar in that he's a big dman with silky hands and great speed. Still raw in his end but I do see top pairing potential in the right environment. Very similar to Wallinder.

I'm on board. Might be a bit of a reach as he's very raw but if he reaches his potential it could be huge

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Dubas hasn't given me a reason to question his drafting yet. His 2019 Draft is looking impressive right now to get 4 quality prospects (Robertson, Kokkonen, Abramov, Abruzzese) and interesting wildcards (Koster, and Loponen) without having a 1st round pick. So I'll give him the benefit of the doubt with whoever he chooses. It's exciting to have a 1st again along with a good number of picks later in the draft.

Last year Dubas had a strategy to focus on a certain type of player (skill), and he did this to take pressure off the scouting staff. Looks like it worked out well last year. He talks about it at 10:04 in this video:

 

[TimeZone]

Based on that tweet I think Mercer/Amirov/Lapierre are the realistic targets.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm almost more intrigued with the second round than the first. I'd be very happy coming out of the second round with Barron.

 

[Stephen]

No but he's not top 15 pick good either.

He’s a completely viable option at 15 along with a number of different options. Not every pick needs to be a Cole Caufield to be BPA, maximum bang for your buck.

 

[Mitch nylander]

If we trade down, then I'd be okay with Schneider/Guhle. But at 15, there are significantly better options to choose from.

 

[Menzinger]

"No, we're not selecting Braden Schneider."

A fair claim. Dubas', top picks seem to focus on high upsides and im not sure if Schneider falls under that category.

Playing thr odds folks are likely going to have to brace that the team will be taking a winger

 

[ToneDog]

Dubas drafts players, only 6' and above this draft... leafs fanbase minds blow.

Nah only if does a Hunter and passes on Dubrincat for Korshkov.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

if he is an above average or even a "good" skater, and has above average hockey IQ, and is Physical, how can anyone NOT be interested. we dont need offense from the defense, we need defense from the defense.

size and strength in junior is very hard to predict how it will translate against nhl competition. looking at the history of the draft, defensive defenseman taken with 1st round picks have not developed into stud nhl defenseman. if you look around the league at stay at home defenseman, the majority are found through other avenues.

i am by no means dismissing that defense isn't an issue, because it definitely is. however id much rather draft nick robertson and parlay him into a stud, than risk drafting Logan Stanley because at surface he is a need. Leafs inflated Tyler Biggs value at the 2011 draft because we needed truculence. Guy never sniffed the NHL.

 

[supermann_98]

Dubas drafts players, only 6' and above this draft... leafs fanbase minds blow.

Lol you know there's gonna be a 5'8 defenseman or two so we all collectively blow our lids

 

[Maplebeasts]

He’s a completely viable option at 15 along with a number of different options. Not every pick needs to be a Cole Caufield to be BPA, maximum bang for your buck.

Weighing both safety and upside, no he absolutely is not a good choice at 15. He doesn't show much promise of being a good offensive contributor while struggling to handle speed to the outside. I'd frankly be shocked if he became anything more than a bottom pairing guy, which again is fine, but not something you take when there are potential top 6 centers and wingers available at your slot. Taking him there is all about need and not about the player.

 

[Maplebeasts]

size and strength in junior is very hard to predict how it will translate against nhl competition. looking at the history of the draft, defensive defenseman taken with 1st round picks have not developed into stud nhl defenseman. if you look around the league at stay at home defenseman, the majority are found through other avenues.

i am by no means dismissing that defense isn't an issue, because it definitely is. however id much rather draft nick robertson and parlay him into a stud, than risk drafting Logan Stanley because at surface he is a need. Leafs inflated Tyler Biggs value at the 2011 draft because we needed truculence. Guy never sniffed the NHL.

Also Gauthier. He was seen as a safe but low ceiling guy who could maybe max out as a 3c and has no business being on an NHL roster now.

 

[JSn0w93]

Weighing both safety and upside, no he absolutely is not a good choice at 15. He doesn't show much promise of being a good offensive contributor while struggling to handle speed to the outside. I'd frankly be shocked if he became anything more than a bottom pairing guy, which again is fine, but not something you take when there are potential top 6 centers and wingers available at your slot. Taking him there is all about need and not about the player.

Oh boy. I have no issue with people not liking Schneider, I wouldn't take him at 15 myself, but some of these comments are just too much.

 

[Amadeus]

I think we get a real good prospect at 44 as well with the names that might be available there.

Really hoping for one of Dmitry Ovechnikov or Tristen Robins