To be honest, there isn't really an obvious winner this year.
MacKinnon started off on fire but slowed down somewhat. He wasn't as good as he was last year and it seems many think Makar was more valuable to the Avalanche than MacKinnon this season.
Last season, people used Kucherov's empty net points against him and people thought MacKinnon drove play better. This season, MacKinnon has a lot of EN points and more than Kucherov. I don't see the argument for him over NK86 this year. But Kucherov's season hasn't really "felt" like a Hart season, either (maybe it kind of flew under the radar until he got hot late in the season and was suddenly first in scoring).
I don't think you can give it to Draisaitl with all those missed games. For the most part, he was better than McDavid this season, but McDavid did end up matching him in points per game and had almost as many points.
I might go with Hellebuyck this year.