NHL.com article on the drop in save percentage

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Theory is SV% is down because shots are down, because low probability of scoring shots are down. Are shots down? Next question—are GAAs up because SV% are down or down because shots are down?

 

[ijuka]

Theory is SV% is down because shots are down, because low probability of scoring shots are down. Are shots down? Next question—are GAAs up because SV% are down or down because shots are down?

The average xGoals per shot is up.

 

[ijuka]

Love the progression of analytics where people have gotten their heads around the concept of shot quality. Still a ways to go such as doing xGF and GSAA with factors other than shot location.

Depending on the model, they do make use of factors other than shot location. For example, zone transitions and the vector between consecutive events.

The thing with corsi is that it's descriptive, not prescriptive. It works if it's a byproduct of what happens naturally, as it's a solid way of estimating possession. It does not work if you intentionally take low quality shots in order to inflate your corsi.

It's sort of like having a nutritional label for a chocolate cake versus having a recipe for it.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

The average xGoals per shot is up.

This is what I’m getting at—despite SV% going down, GAA is down too. Maybe shooters are getting too picky. NHL League Averages | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[dgibb10]

When Gretzky recorded 215 points in 1985-86, the average save percentage was only 0.872 compared with the current 0.901. This is a 2.9% difference in save percentage.
Based on this, Gretzky would only have had 209 points in 2024.
I know there are other mathematic variables, but regardless, this points towards Gretzky’s inconceivable dominance.

This is an act of terrorism against whoever your teacher was the last time you took a math class ngl

 

[dgibb10]

This is a hilarious comment considering Corsi has largely fallen out of favour to scoring chance and shot-quality based metrics (i.e. expected goals).

Whoever decided to name Corsi and Fenwick after the people who started using them needs to pay for their crimes.

They're really simple stats that the name has convinced a large number of people is something made up by wizards.

It's basically equivalent to looking at OBP instead of Average in baseball.

It's literally just shot attempts and unblocked shot attempts.

 

[johan f]

The league wanted more goals. We now see more goals. With that follows a drop in save percentage. Nothing to see here.

 

[FoxyClean]

The 2010s had the best goaltending the league has ever seen. On average, what we've seen in the 2020s isn't even close in quality.

 

[braunm]

This is an act of terrorism against whoever your teacher was the last time you took a math class ngl

Apologies-this was indeed an act of Mathematical terrorism! Embarrassing

 

[SladeWilson23]

Theory is SV% is down because shots are down, because low probability of scoring shots are down. Are shots down? Next question—are GAAs up because SV% are down or down because shots are down?

Shot totals in game do have an effect on SV%. GAA doesn't go up or down because of SV%. GAA moves up and down from shot totals.

Higher shot games means higher SV% and higher GAA.

Lower shot games means lower SV% and lower GAA.

The league wanted more goals. We now see more goals. With that follows a drop in save percentage. Nothing to see here.

It's not that simple. SV% during DPE was also low.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

The league wanted more goals. We now see more goals. With that follows a drop in save percentage. Nothing to see here.

Goals per game were down last year and are down again so far this year and sv% is down. Shots were down 1 last year and are down a further 1.5 so far this year.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I don’t think vasilevskiy’s theory is quite correct, if you look at Corsi for/60 it’s actually higher this season and last than it has ever been. Last season was slightly higher than this year. For some reason the shots are not getting to the net or on net quite as often. And while sv% might be down the number of goals are going down because there are fewer shots by a not insignificant amount. So if shooters are buying into the theory of waiting for the perfect shot then it’s not really working.

 

[Anglesmith]

I don’t think vasilevskiy’s theory is quite correct, if you look at Corsi for/60 it’s actually higher this season and last than it has ever been. Last season was slightly higher than this year. For some reason the shots are not getting to the net or on net quite as often. And while sv% might be down the number of goals are going down because there are fewer shots by a not insignificant amount. So if shooters are buying into the theory of waiting for the perfect shot then it’s not really working.

The perfect shot doesn't mean an open net, necessarily. It could mean waiting for traffic. It's possible that shooters are shooting less when they are sure the puck will get through and more when they aren't sure if it will get through.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Get back to me when they address the drop in Claude Giroux-Adjusted Points