NHL Board of Governors to approve opening of expansion process; Atlanta and Houston believed to be leading candidates

[voyageur]

There's no way the league doesn't go to 36 then. Staying at 34 doesn't make any logistical sense.

Why?

Let's say the NHL wanted Atlanta to form a South division and break up the divisions like the NFL to focus on rivalries. They could do that, keeping Washington out of the South in a division with Philly and Pitt. I'm sure Montreal/Toronto/Detroit/Buffalo/Ottawa would be happier to not have Florida teams in their divsion, which are geographical outliers. Put Boston with 3 N.Y teams that's a real metropolitan division, that would have a rivlary that New York/Carolina just doesn't have, or generate on TV.

In the West there is no real rivalry between Edmonton or Calgary/San Jose/Anaheim, you could easily split the division up into NW and Pac, and have more rivalries that way. Maybe you end up with AZ and Dal, in a division with Colorado/Utah. Geographically sensible. Keep 3 Norris teams together in the other.

TV networks would probably like that more than having a lot of nothing games, that are supposed to be rivalries in big, expansive divisions on their dockets. And TV still is king in the fight to be a relevant pro sport.

I don't think 36 is some magic number, because you get into 3 divsions of 6, and the lines get harder to draw around who belongs where, taking into account that there is two different countries and broadcasters who have some say.

 

[dj4aces]

Fertitta seems to think he can whine and play hardball and get a better deal. No idea why he thinks this.

He already tipped his hand at being interested with the ice maker returning to Toyota Center.

There is an opportunity to completely develop a hockey community in one of the biggest cities in the US. It worked in Dallas. It's worked in several southern cities. If the team is winning and the sport is made readily accessible, the fans and the money will follow.

I'm willing to bet that the plan was to announce expansion at the October meeting, but Fertitta balked at the asking price. While the league has a history of just expanding one team at a time, I think they'd prefer to announce the process for both ATL and HOU at the same time. Since HOU just needs ice plants installed, they could start a year earlier while ATL gets the building constructed.

An argument could be made (as it was in the BoH thread) that the asking price may actually be too high, but we don't actually know what the league is asking. One thing is certain though: It's absolutely poor form to go to the press and say the NHL is asking too much.

 

[voyageur]

I'm willing to bet that the plan was to announce expansion at the October meeting, but Fertitta balked at the asking price. While the league has a history of just expanding one team at a time, I think they'd prefer to announce the process for both ATL and HOU at the same time. Since HOU just needs ice plants installed, they could start a year earlier while ATL gets the building constructed.

An argument could be made (as it was in the BoH thread) that the asking price may actually be too high, but we don't actually know what the league is asking. One thing is certain though: It's absolutely poor form to go to the press and say the NHL is asking too much.

What's the time frame on building an arena in Atlanta? I think of the expansion process that got Vegas in, and the NHL deferred the Quebec bid, because they wanted Seattle, and had to wait for the shovels to get in the ground, and have all the pieces in place before awarding a team.

 

[dj4aces]

What's the time frame on building an arena in Atlanta? I think of the expansion process that got Vegas in, and the NHL deferred the Quebec bid, because they wanted Seattle, and had to wait for the shovels to get in the ground, and have all the pieces in place before awarding a team.

Well... first, the league will have to make an announcement saying which group wins the right to purchase a franchise. After that, the last few new arena constructions have taken between 24 and 36 months from groundbreaking to grand opening. But with multiple groups having their own arena plans, no one is gonna break ground on a building without knowing who'll own the team.

 

[voyageur]

Well... first, the league will have to make an announcement saying which group wins the right to purchase a franchise. After that, the last few new arena constructions have taken between 24 and 36 months from groundbreaking to grand opening. But with multiple groups having their own arena plans, no one is gonna break ground on a building without knowing who'll own the team.

I'm not sure you get an announcement on that. That seems more behind the scenes. You knew Seattle was getting a team when Leiweke was part of the Key Arena restoration. The NHL works with certain people.

 

[cptjeff]

I think the owners counter would be, they have to build an arena, which obviously the 1/32 expansion fee money wouldn’t cover,

And the PA comes back with "don't you usually manage to scam taxpayers into buying those for you?"

The NHLPA absolutely should get a cut of the expansion money and it almost certainly will be an issue in the next CBA, which is why the league is speeding along to get at least two teams done before the current CBA expires.

And as an aside, you don't need to do anything to escrow, just issue the player share of expansion money as a bonus to players at the end of year and don't include it in cap calculations. Same mechanism you would use if the face value of contracts came in under the midpoint instead of above it.

 

[dj4aces]

I'm not sure you get an announcement on that. That seems more behind the scenes. You knew Seattle was getting a team when Leiweke was part of the Key Arena restoration. The NHL works with certain people.

For sure. But the winning group has to know who they are before anything happens, which is my point.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And the PA comes back with "don't you usually manage to scam taxpayers into buying those for you?"

Maybe the in the states the Governor get sucked into that,

 

[Voight]

I think not having owners who are actively trying to kick the team out of the market would be a huge improvement, lets alone the growth in the Atlanta area.

The population has indeed grown, but that doesn't mean they all of a sudden have a ton more hockey fans. Especially because any kids growing up or in their teens wouldn't have ever had an NHL team to root for. Or if any transplants are from non hockey markets / not hockey fans the population growth won't make much of a difference.

I think Ishbia who just shelled out $4 billion for the Suns could be the saviour in Phoenix. He expressed interest, and then you heard nothing, except positive feedback from Daly, that's usually a good sign talks are ongoing.

Atlanta, somebody will pony up. It's crazy to think that the Thrashers sold for $110 million in 2011, and the franchise value now is 10X higher. I get new TV contracts, gambling revenues, and such, but it's a phenomenon of sports franchises, I think, more than anything, becoming the symbol of elite wealth.

With both markets though, the arena is the question. Sounds like Ishbia wants a newer arena than American West, or whatever it is now, and Atlanta hasn't broken ground, and probably won't until they are awarded a franchise with a timeline on the arena, like Seattle. So it's a process...

Ishbia knows Bettman really wants to return to Phoenix and is likely waiting for them to offer him a sweetheart, below rate deal to make that happen. Which at that point, could be a chance for Ferttitta to get a team at a better price but who knows.

 

[voyageur]

The population has indeed grown, but that doesn't mean they all of a sudden have a ton more hockey fans. Especially because any kids growing up or in their teens wouldn't have ever had an NHL team to root for. Or if any transplants are from non hockey markets / not hockey fans the population growth won't make much of a difference.




Ishbia knows Bettman really wants to return to Phoenix and is likely waiting for them to offer him a sweetheart, below rate deal to make that happen. Which at that point, could be a chance for Ferttitta to get a team at a better price but who knows.

I don't know if there is anybody less invested in the NHL, that wants a team,, than Fertitta. He knows the NHL wants to go there, but he won't pay the price. Coyotes would be there already if he did. But the NHL pulled a damn rabbit out of their hat, selling the lowest valued franchise, for a sum that was more than Fenway paid for the Pens. It's an interesting game. I think Ishbia would be closer to the Smiths as a potential owner than Fertitta, and it's really the best scenario that could happen for Arizona if someone brings them to downtown Phoenix, in a rink that is owned and not leased. But I believe there is several issues with playing in the current Footprint Centre, which could take years to resolved.

 

[SkarEffect]

Few more days until we find out.

 

[dj4aces]

Few more days until we find out.

I wouldn't hold your breath, dude. While we can't always trust what folks say versus what actually happens, I think Fertitta will have to have changed his mind about the buy-in for a franchise for anything to happen on Tuesday. Best case scenario is 9-10 December IMO.

 

[SkarEffect]

I wouldn't hold your breath, dude. While we can't always trust what folks say versus what actually happens, I think Fertitta will have to have changed his mind about the buy-in for a franchise for anything to happen on Tuesday. Best case scenario is 9-10 December IMO.

Your right.

 

[StreetHawk]

I don't know if there is anybody less invested in the NHL, that wants a team,, than Fertitta. He knows the NHL wants to go there, but he won't pay the price. Coyotes would be there already if he did. But the NHL pulled a damn rabbit out of their hat, selling the lowest valued franchise, for a sum that was more than Fenway paid for the Pens. It's an interesting game. I think Ishbia would be closer to the Smiths as a potential owner than Fertitta, and it's really the best scenario that could happen for Arizona if someone brings them to downtown Phoenix, in a rink that is owned and not leased. But I believe there is several issues with playing in the current Footprint Centre, which could take years to resolved.

Footprint was renovated just around the Covid time as the suns lease was due to expire in 2022. It cost the suns $80 mill while the city kicked in the other $150-160 mill. Lease was extended to 2037 with the same sightlines.
So, I don't expect AZ to talk new arena to accommodate the NHL as well until we at least get into the 2030's.
Only scenario that the Coyotes return IMO is for them to be owned by the same owner as the suns, whomever that is, be it Ishiba or someone else.

 

[voyageur]

Footprint was renovated just around the Covid time as the suns lease was due to expire in 2022. It cost the suns $80 mill while the city kicked in the other $150-160 mill. Lease was extended to 2037 with the same sightlines.
So, I don't expect AZ to talk new arena to accommodate the NHL as well until we at least get into the 2030's.
Only scenario that the Coyotes return IMO is for them to be owned by the same owner as the suns, whomever that is, be it Ishiba or someone else.

That's an interesting dynamic. I am old so my memory isn't great, but the glory days of the Coyotes were in American West Arena (Footprint). I read that the reason for the move to Glendale was the arena's incapacity for hockey, though it was a sold out building. I don't think you need a capacity over 16 000 to be successful in the NHL now, but I am not sure what the actual hockey layout is for that arena. Does sound like having both commodities makes it easier to renogotiate with the city for a new arena, but that seems at least 10 years away from what you are saying.

 

[StreetHawk]

That's an interesting dynamic. I am old so my memory isn't great, but the glory days of the Coyotes were in American West Arena (Footprint). I read that the reason for the move to Glendale was the arena's incapacity for hockey, though it was a sold out building. I don't think you need a capacity over 16 000 to be successful in the NHL now, but I am not sure what the actual hockey layout is for that arena. Does sound like having both commodities makes it easier to renogotiate with the city for a new arena, but that seems at least 10 years away from what you are saying.

Given how difficult it’s been for the coyotes to get an arena elsewhere in Tempe, Scottsdale, etc. probably best to go in together with the suns. But unlike their fellow relocations to Denver and Dallas who went into old arenas and thus the arena was controlled by the city AZ ended up in a 4 year old arena which was controlled by the Suns. So they were never going to give up half of the control over to the coyotes if they had different owners.

 

[The Shrike]

Why?

Let's say the NHL wanted Atlanta to form a South division and break up the divisions like the NFL to focus on rivalries. They could do that, keeping Washington out of the South in a division with Philly and Pitt. I'm sure Montreal/Toronto/Detroit/Buffalo/Ottawa would be happier to not have Florida teams in their divsion, which are geographical outliers. Put Boston with 3 N.Y teams that's a real metropolitan division, that would have a rivlary that New York/Carolina just doesn't have, or generate on TV.

In the West there is no real rivalry between Edmonton or Calgary/San Jose/Anaheim, you could easily split the division up into NW and Pac, and have more rivalries that way. Maybe you end up with AZ and Dal, in a division with Colorado/Utah. Geographically sensible. Keep 3 Norris teams together in the other.

TV networks would probably like that more than having a lot of nothing games, that are supposed to be rivalries in big, expansive divisions on their dockets. And TV still is king in the fight to be a relevant pro sport.

I don't think 36 is some magic number, because you get into 3 divsions of 6, and the lines get harder to draw around who belongs where, taking into account that there is two different countries and broadcasters who have some say.

So, something like this for a 36 team league:

Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal
Ottawa
Quebec
Toronto

Boston
NJ Devils
NY Islanders
NY Rangers
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

Atlanta
Carolina
Florida
Nashville
Tampa
Washington

Arizona
Calgary
Dallas
Edmonton
Houston
Utah

Chicago
Colorado
Columbus
Minnesota
St. Louis
Winnipeg

Anaheim
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
San Jose
Seattle
Vancouver

I snuck the Nordiques in there to distract the Hab fans.

 

[voyageur]

So, something like this for a 36 team league:

Buffalo
Detroit
Montreal
Ottawa
Quebec
Toronto

Boston
NJ Devils
NY Islanders
NY Rangers
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

Atlanta
Carolina
Florida
Nashville
Tampa
Washington

Arizona
Calgary
Dallas
Edmonton
Houston
Utah

Chicago
Colorado
Columbus
Minnesota
St. Louis
Winnipeg

Anaheim
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
San Jose
Seattle
Vancouver

I snuck the Nordiques in there to distract the Hab fans.

And you moved Columbus to the West, which is almost surely not happening. So put Columbus in the Nordiques spot. But I am not sure that Washington which is a major TV market wants to be in a division with all those south teams that are virtually ignored by the major networks during the season. Still, even if you got to 35 like that, I am quite sure that Rogers doesn't want Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton split up, in fact they would probably like those teams to play more often. That's what I mean about taking into account broadcasters on both sides of the border. Who would have some say.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And you moved Columbus to the West, which is almost surely not happening. So put Columbus in the Nordiques spot. But I am not sure that Washington which is a major TV market wants to be in a division with all those south teams that are virtually ignored by the major networks during the season. Still, even if you got to 35 like that, I am quite sure that Rogers doesn't want Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton split up, in fact they would probably like those teams to play more often. That's what I mean about taking into account broadcasters on both sides of the border. Who would have some say.

Not really the west, in with mostly central time zone teams

 

[voyageur]

Not really the west, in with mostly central time zone teams

I can tell you there is no way that Columbus wants to be in that division, the swap between Columbus and Nashville is a hypothetical one, based on a Southern rivalry that doesn't exist yet. Only way Nashville goes East is if the NHL expands to two Western teams vs. one Eastern. And still I am not sure what Nashville fans would think of 6 pm CST time starts for a lot of games, including playoffs.

Realistically Colorado would be in the same division as Utah too. So you move the 2 Central time zone Texas teams into the Central. But like I said why would Rogers want to split up its 3 Western teams that are part of its TV package, that it is paying billions for? Edmonton-Vancouver is starting to become a good rivalry, and it's never really been one because neither have been good at the same time. If I am Rogers I'd want them playing 5/6 times a year, you have nothing to gain by broadcasting San Jose or Anaheim against Vancouver over Calgary and Edmonton, which is why I think 4/5 team divisions is a better alignment.

 

[The Shrike]

And you moved Columbus to the West, which is almost surely not happening. So put Columbus in the Nordiques spot. But I am not sure that Washington which is a major TV market wants to be in a division with all those south teams that are virtually ignored by the major networks during the season. Still, even if you got to 35 like that, I am quite sure that Rogers doesn't want Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton split up, in fact they would probably like those teams to play more often. That's what I mean about taking into account broadcasters on both sides of the border. Who would have some say.

Taking into account broadcasters, keeping Washington in the north east, Columbus in the eastern time zone, Vancouver with Calgary and Edmonton, I came out with this:

Calgary
Edmonton
Montreal
Ottawa
Toronto
Vancouver

Boston
NJ Devils
NY Islanders
NY Rangers
Philadelphia
Washington

Atlanta
Carolina
Columbus
Florida
Nashville
Tampa

Arizona
Colorado
Dallas
Houston
Kansas
Utah

Buffalo
Chicago
Detroit
Minnesota
Pittsburgh
St. Louis

Anaheim
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
San Jose
Seattle
Winnipeg

I replaced Quebec with a team in Kansas, and orphaned Winnipeg.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Taking into account broadcasters, keeping Washington in the north east, Columbus in the eastern time zone, Vancouver with Calgary and Edmonton, I came out with this:

Calgary
Edmonton
Montreal
Ottawa
Toronto
Vancouver

No chance that’s happening, regardless of broadcaster.

 

[hangman005]

Anaheim
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
San Jose
Seattle
Winnipeg

I replaced Quebec with a team in Kansas, and orphaned Winnipeg.

I feel you didn't just orphan Winnipeg, you waited until they were adopted from the orphanage and did it again.