ChompChomp's post inspired me to look into what's a reasonable two-year trajectory. Looking for a three year trajectory is pretty tough because we get into the two covid years.
Standings (not lottery finishes) the past 5 years (bottom 10, bottom 5, bottom 3):
- Chicago (3, 2, 2)- got franchise C
- Montreal (3, 3, 1)
- San Jose (3, 2, 1) - got franchise C
- Arizona (3, 1, 1)
- Anaheim (2, 2, 2)- got #1 C (maybe 2)
- Seattle (2, 1, 1)- maybe got #1 C
- Columbus (2, 2, 1) - got #1C
- Philly (2, 1, 0)
- New Jersey (2, 1, 0)*
- Ottawa (2, 0, 0)
- Detroit (2, 0, 0)
- Calgary (1, 0, 0)
- St. Louis (1, 0, 0)
*Won Nemec lottery
Largest point improvements year over year from the bottom 5:
- New Jersey: 24 points
- Seattle: 21 points
- Philly: 14 points
- Arizona: 13 points
Largest two-year point improvement from the bottom 3:
- Philly: 26 points
- Seattle: 21 points
- Arizona: 20 points
- NJD: 18 points (lol, somehow regressed with their talent...)
We were 8/12 points worse than the last place finisher the past two years. Maybe it's reasonable to think that SJ can exceed Montreal's 21 point improvement on a two year horizon and get to 70 points in two years, given the worse stating point. That'd be somewhere in the 5-8 range. Of course given the lesser starting point, perhaps the argument is, well, it'll actually be more difficult.
Grier's got a clean cap, and maybe a bit more young talent than some of other squads above. That said, I'd argue the talent is similar to Chicago and Anaheim/Columbus (a bit more loaded tbh), though they have another year in the post franchise center acquisition timeline before they hit the 2 year mark.
Pretty safe bet we're picking top 5 each of the next two years. Given Hagens and McKenna-not to mention the need for an elite d- not the worst thing in the world. If Grier gets the team to 7th in two years, before getting to the middle of table, I think that'd be a win. Tanking for two more years would definitely suck, but it's probably most realistic, and would hopefully give two more elite prospects. Hasso may disagree, and Grier may believe (probably rightly) that if he doesn't get the team to improve by 30-40 points in two years, he's gone. Not sure Grier can be that patient.
7 straights years of bottom six is pretty brutal, but only Eklund/Zetterlund would have experienced 3 of those years. This means the losing culture for the players is maybe not quite so damning, as two of those years will have the introduction of new faces of the franchise, followed by the introduction of several other high-upside youngsters- say Nygard, Hensler, Musty, Muk, and Vegas' 1st.
Don't think it's the Oilers experience of drafting you're supposed franchise player (Hall), and then proceeding to draft 1, 1, 7, 3, 1, 4 in the subsequent six years.