Value of: Next contract for Jake Guentzel

[ES]

Guentzel has still one year remaining on his ELC, but he will be able to sign extension on July 1. In 1½ seasons he has 81 points in 122 games. Of course better known for playoffs, last year he had 21 points in 25 games, this year 13 points after six games.

He will turn 25 close to the beginning of 2019-20 season. Obviously looking to get long deal, not thinking of maximum but maybe around five years? But what will be AAV, somewhere between 5-6M?

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[Tobias Kahun]

Guentzel has still one year remaining on his ELC, but he will be able to sign extension on July 1. In 1½ seasons he has 81 points in 122 games. Of course better known for playoffs, last year he had 21 points in 25 games, this year 13 points after six games.

He will turn 25 close to the beginning of 2019-20 season. Obviously looking to get long deal, not thinking of maximum but maybe around five years? But what will be AAV, somewhere between 5-6M?

5.5x6

 

[T1K]

I don’t think they will bridge him, I bet they try to get him at 6x6 however he might be closer to 6.5/7 depending on cap inflation and his progress.

 

[MMC]

Some team should consider offer sheeting him

 

[olli]

7x6 if he is ppg all playoffs.

 

[Deam78]

I doubt they'd extend him this year. They probably let that last year go before entering negotiation.

 

[EDMOILERS9729]

5 to 6 for 6 years

 

[Lights911]

5.5 million for six years

 

[Drew311]

This season didn't help him to break the bank.

 

[MagicalRazor]

Kid is money in the play offs

 

[Toby Flenderson]

5mil x 5 years

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Kind of torn. He seems like the old school Justin Williams type where he is just decent in regular season but an animal in the playoffs.

Problem is you need guys eating significant chunks of cap to show up in the regular season too and help you guys get there. He's lucky he's behind guys like Kessel, Crosby, malkin, etc

It's just uncomfortable IMO to pay a guy a ton to sit rather idly for 82 games and hope the same guy from last postseason shows up again

 

[varano]

Penguins have been good at taking young moderate prospects and making them good players by playing them with the big boys. If he commands that much money, move on from him.

 

[chethejet]

Pens can not pay him big bucks unless Kessel is traded after next year. That has been my thinking as Pens need to use him to get picks and prospects. Plus more cap room and Kessel will be attractive due to a 5.1 million salary his last three years. Hornqvist at over 5 and Jake over 5 with Kessel and Geno and Crosby is to much. No team can keep everyone. Plus Sprong, Rust, Hornqvist are top 9 RW's to fill the bill. Plus they need to extend Sheahan, Rust, Oleksiac as well. Pens will spend to the cap but still need to manage assets to continue to ice a SC contender.

 

[AvatarAang]

Arvidsson' contract. 7 years x 4.25M

I'm guessing a little less term, slightly higher AAV. 5 years x 4.5M

This 5.5M talk is ridiculous, they pay you mostly based on your 82 game season performance, anyone can get hot in a small sample size playoffs

 

[Trade]

Give him the old Crosby treat and give him 5.9m forever

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Arvidsson' contract. 7 years x 4.25M

I'm guessing a little less term, slightly higher AAV. 5 years x 4.5M

This 5.5M talk is ridiculous, they pay you mostly based on your 82 game season performance, anyone can get hot in a small sample size playoffs

I wish we could sign him for that. This season(his first full one) they had him working on his overall game and was moved all around the lineup. Was even 3rd C for a bit. So the point totals werent what they were projected to be but hes a much better all around player because of this season. And now hes showing it in the playoffs. Yes he put up good numbers last years playoffs too but was also knocked around alot and not that good on D..along the boards, etc. Hes very solid in those areas now.

His numbers will improve alot next regular season. Id love to be able to lock him up for 7 x 4.25 . But I doubt that happens. Seems like a kid that wont demand alot tho, so who knows.

Pens have been good at producing young talent..but Guentzel is on another level than guys like Sheary, Rust, etc. Hed be good on any team, not a product of the Pens(even tho that helps). He was putting up solid numbers at every level. Better each year. 34 points as a freshman, to 39, to 46.

Then when his junior season ended he went to AHL and put up 6 points in their last 11 games . But what stood out even more is the playoffs of course..with 5g 9a 14p in 10gp. Followed that up with 42 points(21g 21a) in 31 games..got his call up and basically had the same numbers in the NHL.

Kid is legit. Not about getting hot in a small sample size.

 

[wej20]

Pens can not pay him big bucks unless Kessel is traded after next year. That has been my thinking as Pens need to use him to get picks and prospects. Plus more cap room and Kessel will be attractive due to a 5.1 million salary his last three years. Hornqvist at over 5 and Jake over 5 with Kessel and Geno and Crosby is to much. No team can keep everyone. Plus Sprong, Rust, Hornqvist are top 9 RW's to fill the bill. Plus they need to extend Sheahan, Rust, Oleksiac as well. Pens will spend to the cap but still need to manage assets to continue to ice a SC contender.

Pens have Carl Hagelin expiring at the same time as Guentzel, so that's 4 million freed up and then there is Sheary at 3 million who expires the year after but likely gets moved before that.

Rust will definitely need a raise, I'm guessing somewhere in the 2.5-3m range.
Sheahan, sign him short term for similar to what he makes now.
Oleksiak, sign him for a cheap 2 year deal (assuming that still leaves him as an RFA), this is only his first full NHL season so he doesn't have much negotiating power.

Rutherford has been smart with his cap management; Justin Schultz's 5.5m, Sheary's 3.0m and Hunwick's 2.25m all come off the cap in 2020 which is when Matt Marry needs his new deal.

 

[Luck 6]

Kind of torn. He seems like the old school Justin Williams type where he is just decent in regular season but an animal in the playoffs.

Problem is you need guys eating significant chunks of cap to show up in the regular season too and help you guys get there. He's lucky he's behind guys like Kessel, Crosby, malkin, etc

It's just uncomfortable IMO to pay a guy a ton to sit rather idly for 82 games and hope the same guy from last postseason shows up again

The flip side of that is, how would he perform if he wasn't behind all of those high minute eating offensive forwards? You could make a case for saying he'd be a good break out candidate if he ended up on another team. That could be why others have stated he'd be an 'alright' offer sheet candidate, although personally I don't see him getting there. Offer sheet him at 7mil and see if the Pens match.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If we get him locked up long-term for less than Ehlers I'll be happy.

 

[slg1963]

Pens should not offer too much , even i could score 20 goals playing along side of Crosby .

 

[DRW204]

I was thinking between Arvidsson and Ehlers AAV. So cut it in the middle 5. 1M

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

The flip side of that is, how would he perform if he wasn't behind all of those high minute eating offensive forwards? You could make a case for saying he'd be a good break out candidate if he ended up on another team. That could be why others have stated he'd be an 'alright' offer sheet candidate, although personally I don't see him getting there. Offer sheet him at 7mil and see if the Pens match.

I think expecting JG to break out once he is removed behind Crosby and co. would be a huge mistake. While he gets greater opportunity, he would also now go against the selke and norris candidates of the league. I dont see him having the skill set and talent to break through and become a top tier producer all season long

 

[Jared Dunn]

I think he signs for 6x6 this summer, little under Pasta

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Good luck getting him under 7 if he has yet another dominant playoff run