News and Notes XVI: RF's Vision Quest

[Boom Boom Apathy]

#24: Skinner 24 YO, 28G: "He's just 24, but it feels like Skinner's best hockey is behind him."

#23: Domi 21 YO, 18G: "Nothing but blue skies ahead for Domi"

Even though he's improved defensively, he still has holes in his game so I'm fine if the rank him in the 20s like they did. It's the write up that is funny.

If they had said something like: "He's inconsistent Year to year offensively and while his defensive game has improved, it still has holes so if he's not scoring, he's not helping the team. Still, he's an offensively gifted player who needs to put together a consistent string of good seasons"

Or something like that, it would be better IMO.

 

[geehaad]

Brutal.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I wonder how far up that list you have to go to hit a player who scored as many goals as Skinner last year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Brutal.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but I wonder how far up that list you have to go to hit a player who scored as many goals as Skinner last year.

Someone on the MB thread say nobody outside the top 10 scored as many as Skinner, but I'm too lazy to check it also.

 

[Incubajerks]

And Brayden Schenn #15

 

[RodTheBawd]

Kid comes off (IMO) the best season of his career and gets **** on everywhere you look. I'd say that writeup is drink worthy.

 

[Vagrant]

Kid comes off (IMO) the best season of his career and gets **** on everywhere you look. I'd say that writeup is drink worthy.

It's hard for me, be it nostalgia or just from his play, to top his Calder season. Everything he did that year offensively just *worked*. I think he surprised a lot of people with his willingness to go into high traffic areas. The opposition adjusted and he didn't adjust back and it got him merked a few times over the next few seasons. But you're right it was a good season for him. I think the year before last he was safe almost to the point of disengaged, but last year he started to figure out the smarter times to make his plays and not try to skate through all five guys with no help during line changes. I saw a lot of getting pucks deep last year which was a big help to the team. Sometimes it's just not there. The temptation to do too much is something a lot of young players with strong puck handling ability have to fight against. But in the same vein, the fearlessness of youth and being unafraid of the consequences of getting rocked can make for some damn exciting hockey for however long you can get away with doing it. Patrick Kane likes to hold the puck as well, but his on ice awareness of where the defenders are keeps him upright most of the time. Skinner has had to learn to utilize his linemates. Most of which he didn't trust to create offense for him. Subsequently, it has become very hard to find good fits for him offensively because he freelances so much and it's just as hard to read him as a linemate as it is a defender. I saw some improvement on that front as well last year. If he can continue to develop that trust with whoever he ends up with, it's going to be a good year for him. I'd like to see some continuity for him. I don't think the TT-Lindholm-Aho line is going to stay together long to be totally honest. I'd like to see some combination where Aho or TT ends up playing with Skinner just to do a heat check.

But yeah, the list isn't even worth discussing.

 

[StormCast]

Kid comes off (IMO) the best season of his career and gets **** on everywhere you look. I'd say that writeup is drink worthy.

Right but SI isn't going to look at anything but goal and points totals each year and certainly are clueless about his improvement in playing a two-way game. Skinner made a national splash as a rookie, had injuries, had a down year the season before last, etc. But he still plays for an under-the-radar market, so hardly a surprise.

 

[RodTheBawd]

It's hard for me, be it nostalgia or just from his play, to top his Calder season. Everything he did that year offensively just *worked*. I think he surprised a lot of people with his willingness to go into high traffic areas. The opposition adjusted and he didn't adjust back and it got him merked a few times over the next few seasons. But you're right it was a good season for him. I think the year before last he was safe almost to the point of disengaged, but last year he started to figure out the smarter times to make his plays and not try to skate through all five guys with no help during line changes. I saw a lot of getting pucks deep last year which was a big help to the team. Sometimes it's just not there. The temptation to do too much is something a lot of young players with strong puck handling ability have to fight against. But in the same vein, the fearlessness of youth and being unafraid of the consequences of getting rocked can make for some damn exciting hockey for however long you can get away with doing it. Patrick Kane likes to hold the puck as well, but his on ice awareness of where the defenders are keeps him upright most of the time. Skinner has had to learn to utilize his linemates. Most of which he didn't trust to create offense for him. Subsequently, it has become very hard to find good fits for him offensively because he freelances so much and it's just as hard to read him as a linemate as it is a defender. I saw some improvement on that front as well last year. If he can continue to develop that trust with whoever he ends up with, it's going to be a good year for him. I'd like to see some continuity for him. I don't think the TT-Lindholm-Aho line is going to stay together long to be totally honest. I'd like to see some combination where Aho or TT ends up playing with Skinner just to do a heat check.

But yeah, the list isn't even worth discussing.

Don't get me wrong, that rookie season was so fun to watch. I love the cliche worth the price of admission, and he certainly was. But the first few weeks of last season I saw a much more complete player, even without the puck finding the back of the net. He stuck with it, wasn't whiney or pouty, and it eventually paid off (a lot probably owed to maturity as well).

I'm too lazy to look up how much he actually played with the Finns, but a banger and a cerebral playmaker are about as perfect of linemates as you can put him with, I give them a lot of credit for that year. I agree that I don't think that TT-Lindholm-Aho line will stick too long. Too many unselfish guys, they need a Skinner. I'd love to see him pot 35-40; not even so much for the team, but for himself, as a slap in the face to his doubters.

 

[geehaad]

Right but SI isn't going to look at anything but goal and points totals each year and certainly are clueless about his improvement in playing a two-way game. Skinner made a national splash as a rookie, had injuries, had a down year the season before last, etc.

I hear ya, but 4 things:

1) goal/points in each year still kicks the **** outta many players above him
2) injuries are oft-used excuses within Muir's article
3) there was only one injury-shortened season (70+ games isn't substantial in my estimation).
4) the down year was still mostly on par with players rated above him.

Anyway, the lesson here is this rating - like all others - is not worth arguing about.

 

[StormCast]

I hear ya, but 3 things:

1) injuries are oft-used excuses within Muir's article
2) there was only one injury-shortened season (70+ games isn't substantial in my estimation).
3) the down year was still mostly on par with players rated above him.

Anyway, the lesson here is this rating - like all others - is not worth arguing about.

I think he came to his conclusions first and then tried to cherry pick stats or use misguided perceptions to support them. He makes a similar misguided comment about Parise being injury-prone to downplay his abilities. The analysis is all over the map.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

So when did SI become a hockey magazine?

Oh, that's right: never.

 

[Ole Gil]

Right but SI isn't going to look at anything but goal and points totals each year and certainly are clueless about his improvement in playing a two-way game. Skinner made a national splash as a rookie, had injuries, had a down year the season before last, etc. But he still plays for an under-the-radar market, so hardly a surprise.

That's a weird thing to say, since the only argument being made here for him to be higher is goal totals. I think everything else, he's worse than the guys ahead of him. Defense, playmaking (assists), special teams, whatever.

He's a very unique player. You stick him on a 3rd line, and he'll get himself 30 goals. But now that he's going to be a top line player, I think being a one-dimensional goal scorer is going to be a liability.

For the 16-17 season alone, who would you guys take Skinner over (salaries ignored) that is on the list?

 

[NotOpie]

Jeff Skinner is one of the more under-appreciated 28 goal per season players in the league. Personally, I think he not only has room to get better, I believe he knows he can get better and has dedicated himself to doing so. Even if it is only for his selfish personal gain, I think he wants to excel.

I wouldn't necessarily sell Stempniak short as a set up guy either. He's evolved to as much of an assist threat as a pure scoring threat. Last year he had 32 assists to go with his 19 goals, in 2013-14 he had 22 assists to go with his 12 goals, and in 2012-13 he had 23 assists to go with his 9 goals. While I think Lee could have a bit of a goal scoring resurgence, my guess is that Skinner benefits from his wiley veteran presence and sees some nice dishes coming his way.

 

[bleedgreen]

Skinner with confidence and consistency is a 40 goal scorer. I've said it before and I'll say it again, he could hit 50 having the right year.

 

[Roboturner913]

Let's be honest, if Skinner played for the Rangers or Leafs or somebody, coming off the season he just had, he'd be more than a few spots higher on that list. At some point you just have to laugh and say who cares.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Skinner with confidence and consistency is a 40 goal scorer. I've said it before and I'll say it again, he could hit 50 having the right year.

He's one of the top 15 5 on 5 goal scorers (per 60 minutes) since he entered the league. For whatever reason he can't put it together on the PP (save for that one fluke year when he had 11). That's what really holds his totals down and keeps him from a realistic chance at 40. He'd need at least 10, probably 15 PP goals to crack 40 and I just don't see the likelihood of that happening here. Especially with how the PP runs through Faulk.

 

[bleedgreen]

When he's cold he misses half empty nets and hits posts all day. I think he needs to be consistent and confident from day one and he'll hit forty. Just my 2 cents. If he has those things going for him I don't think it'll matter how the pp rolls.

 

[GoldiFox]

He's one of the top 15 5 on 5 goal scorers (per 60 minutes) since he entered the league. For whatever reason he can't put it together on the PP (save for that one fluke year when he had 11). That's what really holds his totals down and keeps him from a realistic chance at 40. He'd need at least 10, probably 15 PP goals to crack 40 and I just don't see the likelihood of that happening here. Especially with how the PP runs through Faulk.

My hope is that Aho and TT can really get the PP (and Skinner) going with their playmaking ability. Canes have sorely lacked pass-first guys with great vision that are able to capitalize on situations with the man advantage.

 

[Joe McGrath]

When he's cold he misses half empty nets and hits posts all day. I think he needs to be consistent and confident from day one and he'll hit forty. Just my 2 cents. If he has those things going for him I don't think it'll matter how the pp rolls.

4 guys scored 40 goals last year. Skinner isn't on any of those guys level. Phil Kessel has never scored 40 goals for example. 40 goals is a much higher bar than it was 5-10 years ago.

 

[bleedgreen]

I don't disagree with how hard it is, I think he has it in him.

 

[StormCast]

That's a weird thing to say, since the only argument being made here for him to be higher is goal totals. I think everything else, he's worse than the guys ahead of him. Defense, playmaking (assists), special teams, whatever.

He's a very unique player. You stick him on a 3rd line, and he'll get himself 30 goals. But now that he's going to be a top line player, I think being a one-dimensional goal scorer is going to be a liability.

For the 16-17 season alone, who would you guys take Skinner over (salaries ignored) that is on the list?

Not weird at all when you consider the argument here is that he's better now than his rookie year. SI isn't digging that deep and certainly not considering two-way play. The list clearly values potential higher for younger players whereas they decide Skinner has seen his best days at 24. Based on what? They don't say but it appear to be based on a quick stat scan and the perception he's concussion-prone. Jaden Schwartz, who I like quite a bit, is forgiven for an injury-filled year because he did well in the playoffs and has one good year which put him at 12? Schwartz is a better playmaker but Skinner at this stage is better without the puck. They are both 24 years old. Sometimes you value someone less the more see their flaws but I'm willing to bet the writer hasn't seen much of Skinner.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sometimes you value someone less the more see their flaws but I'm willing to bet the writer hasn't seen much of Skinner.

The problem with Skinner's reputation is that people stopped following him 3 years ago.

Imagine if Crosby had stopped getting serious coverage in 2013. People would be making terrible trade proposals and putting him outside the top-10 players in the league because he's "concussion prone", "an immature whiner", and "obviously in decline (just look at his stats!)".

Crosby grew out of those flaws and because everyone watches him, his numbers are only part of the conversation about his value. Skinner won't get that kind of credit until this team gets much better and people realize he isn't 21 anymore.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Very good points thh, hadn't really thought about it like that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Part of that is very valid THH, but I think there's more to it. While Skinner had a good season last year, he was coming off of a prior season where he suffered another concussion (pre-season) and had career lows in goals, assists, points and +/- (lockout season not withstanding). I tend think that "bad" season was the anomaly, but in order for Skinner to get recognition among the hockey community, he needs to start having good seasons consistently, back to back and not suffer any more concussions. If Skinner can put together a 30G+ season this year, while staying healthy, and still playing an improve 2-way game, I think people's view of him will start to change.

 

[StormCast]

The problem with Skinner's reputation is that people stopped following him 3 years ago.

Imagine if Crosby had stopped getting serious coverage in 2013. People would be making terrible trade proposals and putting him outside the top-10 players in the league because he's "concussion prone", "an immature whiner", and "obviously in decline (just look at his stats!)".

Crosby grew out of those flaws and because everyone watches him, his numbers are only part of the conversation about his value. Skinner won't get that kind of credit until this team gets much better and people realize he isn't 21 anymore.

That's what I'm getting it and pointed out in my first reply, but I think it's longer than that (i.e., after his rookie year and AS appearance) and exacerbated by the total lack of postseason exposure. As I highlighted, Schwartz gets a pass and is ranked highly because he had a great playoffs whereas Skinner is ranked based on a stat review and preconceived notions.