NEW: Keep or Trade Granlund? Zetterlund’s Emergence, Will Smith & More Through 11 Games

[Friday]

Listening to the opening night roster reaction episode

I am sick and tired of hearing Sheng say positive things about Luke Kunin

My eyes are not lying to me Sheng, he stinks

Lol but he trys really hard

 

[Cas]

Lol but he trys really hard

I promise I will try even harder for one year at league minimum salary.

 

[one2gamble]

Listening to the opening night roster reaction episode

I am sick and tired of hearing Sheng say positive things about Luke Kunin

My eyes are not lying to me Sheng, he stinks

its kind of odd how much positivity surrounds kunin from the org and org adjacent.

 

[weastern bias]

its kind of odd how much positivity surrounds kunin from the org and org adjacent.

He must be an awesome guy because he provides so little value when he's on the ice and yet everyone just seems to love him

 

[Juxtaposer]

I just find it funny all the "Kunin is great in the room" talk when he just looks miserable all the time. Not sure I've seen him smile.

 

[Lebanezer]

Listening to the opening night roster reaction episode

I am sick and tired of hearing Sheng say positive things about Luke Kunin

My eyes are not lying to me Sheng, he stinks

He took a few digs at the internet community in this podcast. It's kind of funny considering Keegan was one of us before he started working with Sheng. Small aside, I loved @Kcoyote3's rant on Twtitter about Gushchin.

 

[Cas]

He must be an awesome guy because he provides so little value when he's on the ice and yet everyone just seems to love him

But he hits people, that's always critical, right?

 

[weastern bias]

But he hits people, that's always critical, right?

It's really important to put yourself out of position by chasing hits in the offensive zone, THAT'S leadership

 

[Alaskanice]

Hockey is an aggressive sport. You’re in a limited area where hitting is a big part of the game. NHL history is filled with guys who couldn’t hit or take a hit. They don’t last long.
The other night, Goose received so much praise for his points. Some of those points came because Kunin fought to be in front if the net. Some here may not understand how difficult that can be. It’s not just getting to a place but having sticks pushed on your back, arms and legs. Holding onto the puck along the boards, again with the sticks and bodies pushing and elbows and knees. It is hard.
There are players that do that. Goose doesn’t, really. He is needed for other things. Which he did. But if Kunin didn’t do what he did, Goose may not have those points.

 

[Kcoyote3]

He took a few digs at the internet community in this podcast. It's kind of funny considering Keegan was one of us before he started working with Sheng. Small aside, I loved @Kcoyote3's rant on Twtitter about Gushchin.

I'm still one of you!

 

[weastern bias]

Hockey is an aggressive sport. You’re in a limited area where hitting is a big part of the game. NHL history is filled with guys who couldn’t hit or take a hit. They don’t last long.
The other night, Goose received so much praise for his points. Some of those points came because Kunin fought to be in front if the net. Some here may not understand how difficult that can be. It’s not just getting to a place but having sticks pushed on your back, arms and legs. Holding onto the puck along the boards, again with the sticks and bodies pushing and elbows and knees. It is hard.
There are players that do that. Goose doesn’t, really. He is needed for other things. Which he did. But if Kunin didn’t do what he did, Goose may not have those points.

Luke Kunin is bad at every one of the skills you just described

Those are all important aspects of the game, Kunin is a negative at every one of those facets

His single best attribute is his willingness to fight and he's a terrible fighter, he gets the shit kicked out of him every time, there is no other forward who made the roster that I think he is better than at literally anything on the ice

He does 2 things well, he plays hard and he goes to the net, he's bad at every skill at an NHL level

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hockey is an aggressive sport. You’re in a limited area where hitting is a big part of the game. NHL history is filled with guys who couldn’t hit or take a hit. They don’t last long.
The other night, Goose received so much praise for his points. Some of those points came because Kunin fought to be in front if the net. Some here may not understand how difficult that can be. It’s not just getting to a place but having sticks pushed on your back, arms and legs. Holding onto the puck along the boards, again with the sticks and bodies pushing and elbows and knees. It is hard.
There are players that do that. Goose doesn’t, really. He is needed for other things. Which he did. But if Kunin didn’t do what he did, Goose may not have those points.

Kunin has a lot of traits and skills that you'd like to have in a guy. His problem has always been consistency. Even the things that he gets notable praise on are things that he has a real problem doing on a regular basis. If any of those traits were unique to him and that was what he brought to the team, it'd be one thing. That's just not the case with the roster assembled as it is. There are guys, even ones like Nico Sturm, who are of similar skill level but do a more consistent job at simple things like catching passes which is what really helps players like Goose make plays. Kunin did that very well in Vegas. He needs to do it consistently and not only fight for net-front presence every so often or win board battles every so often. Those are things Kunin has always been maddeningly inconsistent on. The effort and physical plays you expect to see from him but don't for long stretches.

 

[sampler]

The Kunin love affair makes little sense to me too. He is only a borderline NHLer, a serviceable 4th liner who can chip in a few goals here and there, play some PK time, and maybe throw a hit or two. His type are a dime a dozen. he is worth 1M/yr as a reasonable depth guy. thats about it, but somehow, he is hailed as this incredible leader, an assistant captain, who does all the little things. I watch him, he definitely does little out there...

Sometimes, GMs and coaches fall in love with players for no clear reason, and sometimes they hate players for equally little reason. Kunin is one lucky guy to get so much love, and if he is so good in the room, then why was the room so bad last year with multiple players speaking out about how bads the coaching was and 3/4 player turnover. Seems to me that whatever "intangibles" kunin brings, they sure don't contribute to wins.

Maybe he has a breakout year this year and really contributes to actual wins. Ill gladly eat crow if that happens, but I expect another 15 minutes of dead ice time.

 

[coooldude]

tl;dr stats dive: Luke Kunin probably does a great job taking care of his body/craft off ice, and he draws a ton of penalties, and at 5v5 he actually is involved with creating some decent xGF, and he does his job just OK killing penalties but does it a lot. Otherwise, he was middling or bad on a historically bad team last year. Because of this, his intangibles just must be truly off the charts in terms of what he contributes in the locker room, etc., or else it's just old time hockey "we love a grinder," which may be the case.

Starting from first principles:

• I assume that our current coaches, players, and GMs are not complete idiots.
• Everyone, pretty much, praises Kunin. So start from the assumption that they must have a good reason.
• The reasons typically stated are all about "playing the right way," "leaving it all on the ice," "always giving 100% effort," and so on.
• We should, at least in theory, be able to find evidence of this in regular or advanced game stats.

Let's take a look at the stats (Moneypuck) and see what we can find - all stats from 5v5. I bolded the good stats and everything else is neutral or bad.

• Played 77 games last year - 5th best on the squad. This is at least decent evidence that he takes care of his body and is doing the right things off ice to be a ready professional. Especially when combined with the fact that we know he isn't shirking away from contact out there:
• 2nd on the team in hits, after Burroughs. 10th in shots blocked, but only 22nd in shots blocked /60. That's a bit surprising.
• Points: 8/3/11, obviously bad. However, in a bad year, that was good enough for 11th on the team. All 3 assists were primary.

OK, what about more advanced stats? Does he make our team more likely to score goals or less likely to be scored on? 5v5:

• Surprisingly, Kunin is #3 on the team from last year in xGF at 11.1. That's good.
• 4th worst at on-ice xGA/60.
• Worst on the team at On-ice xG differential at -22.5
• Middle of the pack on On-Ice Goals%. 7th worst for On-ice xG%.
• 8th worst on the team in CF% (shot attempts for). 6th worst on Fenwick% (unblocked shot attempts for).
• 4th best at creating rebounds above expected!
• Very middling in shots/60 or shot attempts/60 for our team
• He was 8.9% expected shooting on unblocked shots - one of the highest #'s on the team, meaning his chances were good - but he was -2.4% below expected on converting those chances, which is 7th worst on the team. Worse than him: Smith, Eklund, Barabanov, Sturm, Studnicka, Labanc.
• Related, he was 7th worst at missing-net-above-expected - worse than him were Studnicka, Couture, Gushchin, Eklund, Kostin.
• "Shooting talent above average" - he's just mediocre. Last year, best players were Kostin, Hoffman, worst were Zetterlund, Studnicka, Carpy, MacDonald, Ferraro. Related sidenote, Zetterlund had 5 goals above "shooting talent" so maybe a regression should be expected.

How about just "putting in your shift" -- no goals against, try to control play and win a faceoff in the other zone. Some advanced stats here:

• 16 takeaways and 13 giveaways, 10th on the team in takeaways
• #1 in PIM drawn over the year at 77. Usually a good indicator of effort, but potentially inflated by fights. However, Kunin is #7 in the entire NHL at drawing penalties.
• He's not getting "hard minutes" necessarily, as only 11% of shift starts are in DZ. Top of team is Shak and Sturm, unsurprisingly.
• Just mediocre at good line changes - 6th most xGA 5 seconds after on-the-fly shift ends, and 11th most xGF, positive differential but not outstanding.
• 5th worst forward at D zone giveaways (5) - better only than Eklund, Zetterlund, Hoffman, Zadina

Alright, the PK then.

• 2nd most PK shifts, after Granlund.
• 4th most PK minutes - so he gets off the ice.
• 5 takeaways on PK - tied for 2nd with Sturm, behind Granlund at 11.
• 7 shorthanded shots on goal was #1 on team. Unfortunately, they were all low-danger.
• 6th worst at on-ice xGA/60.
• 3rd worst at on-ice expected goal differential.

And taking someone else's model, The Athletic Player Cards had him as 3rd worst skater on the team other than Labanc and Benning (and Couture), with the only positive stat being 87%ile in shots blocked.

 

[timorous me]

tl;dr stats dive: Luke Kunin probably does a great job taking care of his body/craft off ice, and he draws a ton of penalties, and at 5v5 he actually is involved with creating some decent xGF, and he does his job just OK killing penalties but does it a lot. Otherwise, he was middling or bad on a historically bad team last year. Because of this, his intangibles just must be truly off the charts in terms of what he contributes in the locker room, etc., or else it's just old time hockey "we love a grinder," which may be the case.

Starting from first principles:

• I assume that our current coaches, players, and GMs are not complete idiots.
• Everyone, pretty much, praises Kunin. So start from the assumption that they must have a good reason.
• The reasons typically stated are all about "playing the right way," "leaving it all on the ice," "always giving 100% effort," and so on.
• We should, at least in theory, be able to find evidence of this in regular or advanced game stats.

Let's take a look at the stats (Moneypuck) and see what we can find - all stats from 5v5. I bolded the good stats and everything else is neutral or bad.

• Played 77 games last year - 5th best on the squad. This is at least decent evidence that he takes care of his body and is doing the right things off ice to be a ready professional. Especially when combined with the fact that we know he isn't shirking away from contact out there:
• 2nd on the team in hits, after Burroughs. 10th in shots blocked, but only 22nd in shots blocked /60. That's a bit surprising.
• Points: 8/3/11, obviously bad. However, in a bad year, that was good enough for 11th on the team. All 3 assists were primary.

OK, what about more advanced stats? Does he make our team more likely to score goals or less likely to be scored on? 5v5:

• Surprisingly, Kunin is #3 on the team from last year in xGF at 11.1. That's good.
• 4th worst at on-ice xGA/60.
• Worst on the team at On-ice xG differential at -22.5
• Middle of the pack on On-Ice Goals%. 7th worst for On-ice xG%.
• 8th worst on the team in CF% (shot attempts for). 6th worst on Fenwick% (unblocked shot attempts for).
• 4th best at creating rebounds above expected!
• Very middling in shots/60 or shot attempts/60 for our team
• He was 8.9% expected shooting on unblocked shots - one of the highest #'s on the team, meaning his chances were good - but he was -2.4% below expected on converting those chances, which is 7th worst on the team. Worse than him: Smith, Eklund, Barabanov, Sturm, Studnicka, Labanc.
• Related, he was 7th worst at missing-net-above-expected - worse than him were Studnicka, Couture, Gushchin, Eklund, Kostin.
• "Shooting talent above average" - he's just mediocre. Last year, best players were Kostin, Hoffman, worst were Zetterlund, Studnicka, Carpy, MacDonald, Ferraro. Related sidenote, Zetterlund had 5 goals above "shooting talent" so maybe a regression should be expected.

How about just "putting in your shift" -- no goals against, try to control play and win a faceoff in the other zone. Some advanced stats here:

• 16 takeaways and 13 giveaways, 10th on the team in takeaways
• #1 in PIM drawn over the year at 77. Usually a good indicator of effort, but potentially inflated by fights. However, Kunin is #7 in the entire NHL at drawing penalties.
• He's not getting "hard minutes" necessarily, as only 11% of shift starts are in DZ. Top of team is Shak and Sturm, unsurprisingly.
• Just mediocre at good line changes - 6th most xGA 5 seconds after on-the-fly shift ends, and 11th most xGF, positive differential but not outstanding.
• 5th worst forward at D zone giveaways (5) - better only than Eklund, Zetterlund, Hoffman, Zadina

Alright, the PK then.

• 2nd most PK shifts, after Granlund.
• 4th most PK minutes - so he gets off the ice.
• 5 takeaways on PK - tied for 2nd with Sturm, behind Granlund at 11.
• 7 shorthanded shots on goal was #1 on team. Unfortunately, they were all low-danger.
• 6th worst at on-ice xGA/60.
• 3rd worst at on-ice expected goal differential.

And taking someone else's model, The Athletic Player Cards had him as 3rd worst skater on the team other than Labanc and Benning (and Couture), with the only positive stat being 87%ile in shots blocked.

Obviously Kunin has some tangible flaws, like his hands, his shooting, his skating. But the thing that's stuck out most to me--and was something I remember hearing from fans of his old teams when Grier traded for him--is his hockey sense, which is quite poor in many ways.

Maybe it's actually better in the o-zone since he's involved in more chances, but I'm often struck by how bad he is in his own zone, just so many thoughtless decisions with the puck, where to go, etc. and it makes it quite stunning that he gets so many PK minutes, though I guess that's where his hard work and willingness to put his body on the line (character!) helps him out.

 

[gaucholoco3]

People complain about Kunin because he misses grade A chances created by others notably Eklund last year.

What people are missing is that he was in position for the scoring chance and didn’t execute. Many in the NHL can’t identify those chances in the first place.

While it would not be a defensive shutdown line I would like to see a 3rd line of Gushchin, Wennberg, and Kunin.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Obviously Kunin has some tangible flaws, like his hands, his shooting, his skating. But the thing that's stuck out most to me--and was something I remember hearing from fans of his old teams when Grier traded for him--is his hockey sense, which is quite poor in many ways.

Maybe it's actually better in the o-zone since he's involved in more chances, but I'm often struck by how bad he is in his own zone, just so many thoughtless decisions with the puck, where to go, etc. and it makes it quite stunning that he gets so many PK minutes, though I guess that's where his hard work and willingness to put his body on the line (character!) helps him out.

Whenever I iso-focus on Kunin, I'm always struck by how mindless and perfunctory his defense and forechecking seems. He does everything right 'by the book' and yet it's incredibly ineffective because you need to actually use your brain to apply principles in real life situations.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

People complain about Kunin because he misses grade A chances created by others notably Eklund last year.

What people are missing is that he was in position for the scoring chance and didn’t execute. Many in the NHL can’t identify those chances in the first place.

While it would not be a defensive shutdown line I would like to see a 3rd line of Gushchin, Wennberg, and Kunin.

I complain about Kunin because he doesn't bring anything consistently and we're paying him like a depth player who does. A team that continues to believe for whatever reason that he is will likely make similar mistakes and those decisions tend to add up over time.

 

[Hodge]

I complain about Kunin because he doesn't bring anything consistently and we're paying him like a depth player who does. A team that continues to believe for whatever reason that he is will likely make similar mistakes and those decisions tend to add up over time.

Who cares? It's not your money. We don't need the cap space. He's signed for one year where we aren't competing for a playoff spot and he will likely be traded at the deadline.

 

[weastern bias]

Who cares? It's not your money. We don't need the cap space. He's signed for one year where we aren't competing for a playoff spot and he will likely be traded at the deadline.

There's always a huge trade market at the deadline for 20 point depth forwards on bottom dwelling teams who are defensive liabilities and don't provide a physically imposing presence

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Who cares? It's not your money. We don't need the cap space. He's signed for one year where we aren't competing for a playoff spot and he will likely be traded at the deadline.

I do and that's good enough for me. The cap space and money was never the issue. It's the value judgment that's the issue and that matters whether you acknowledge it or want to sweep it under the rug. Your attitude is how a manager makes poor decisions because you don't put enough thought into it.

 

[Hodge]

There's always a huge trade market at the deadline for 20 point depth forwards on bottom dwelling teams who are defensive liabilities and don't provide a physically imposing presence

Avalanche acquire forward Duhaime from Wild

The Avalanche acquired forward Brandon Duhaime from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2026 third-round draft pick.

www.espn.com

Avalanche Acquire Yakov Trenin | Colorado Avalanche

Also Receive Rights To Prospect Sward In Deal With Nashville

www.nhl.com

Sundqvist traded to Wild by Red Wings | NHL.com

Detroit receives 4th-round pick in 2023 NHL Draft for forward

www.nhl.com

Blueger traded to Golden Knights by Penguins | NHL.com

Forward has 10 points in 45 games this season; Pittsburgh receives minor league defenseman, draft pick

www.nhl.com

I agree.

 

[weastern bias]

Avalanche acquire forward Duhaime from Wild

The Avalanche acquired forward Brandon Duhaime from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2026 third-round draft pick.

www.espn.com

Avalanche Acquire Yakov Trenin | Colorado Avalanche

Also Receive Rights To Prospect Sward In Deal With Nashville

www.nhl.com

Sundqvist traded to Wild by Red Wings | NHL.com

Detroit receives 4th-round pick in 2023 NHL Draft for forward

www.nhl.com

Blueger traded to Golden Knights by Penguins | NHL.com

Forward has 10 points in 45 games this season; Pittsburgh receives minor league defenseman, draft pick

www.nhl.com

I agree.

You listed 2 players who are bigger and more imposing than Kunin and a player who plays center and has played PK minutes for playoff teams

None of them fill the same niche as Kunin, which at this time still appears to be basically just vibes

 

[mogambomoroo]

If I had to guess Kunin probably does something very well in that locker room to keep his spot. Probably is the best guy in the room for their down times (which are a lot for now)
Helps his teammates not lose their minds.

 

[Barrie22]

I'm still one of you!

Nope you are now enshrined in the same category as kurz. Mortal enemy to any fan on a message board.