New Head Coach search

[Guttersniped]

That's actually the point.

In the regular season, you don't really have to give up offense for defense. At least not usually.

Boston is better than most of the teams the Leafs played. So, the bar for being good defensively against them is different than it is against Ottawa or Detroit.

Therefore, players need to perform differently in the playoffs than in the regular season.

Those small mistakes that don't really show up during the regular season still allow you to get Selke consideration when you put up 90 points.

But, those same mistakes in the playoffs cause you to lose 2-1 to a hot goalie and a team with a strong defensive structure.

If you’re saying Marner and Matthews were worse defensively in the playoffs, you’re wrong.

Marner 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
65.71 GF% 2.74 GF/60 1.43 GA/60
58.17 xGF% 2.87 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Matthews 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
60.00 GF% 2.47 GF/60 1.65 GA/60
59.34 xGF% 3.02 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Their problem wasn’t “little mistakes” by Marner & Matthews, it was glaring mistakes or shitty play by teammates plus (at times) a lack of offensive production from the core.

 

[Blackjack]

If you’re saying Marner and Matthews were worse defensively in the playoffs, you’re wrong.

Marner 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
65.71 GF% 2.74 GF/60 1.43 GA/60
58.17 xGF% 2.87 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Matthews 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
60.00 GF% 2.47 GF/60 1.65 GA/60
59.34 xGF% 3.02 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Their problem wasn’t “little mistakes” by Marner & Matthews, it was glaring mistakes or shitty play by teammates plus (at times) a lack of offensive production from the core.

One of the hockey analytics twitter accounts made this point. Matthews and Marner's xGF% actually goes up in the playoffs, while many other superstars stay the same or go down. The difference is in finishing and quantity.

In other words, if anything Matthews and Marner sacrifice too much offense for defense in the playoffs.

 

[HBK27]

Really looking forward to hearing from fans of the former team of whichever coach we ultimately hire telling us how much this guy sucks at coaching. Should be fun!

 

[Ripshot 43]

Really looking forward to hearing from fans of the former team of whichever coach we ultimately hire telling us how much this guy sucks at coaching. Should be fun!

I mean… we did only have great things to say about Ruff, right?

 

[My3Sons]

I’m agnostic on Keefe, but what do people attribute his lack of playoff success to? The Leafs have been a pretty good regular season club, so I can’t immediately hand wave that, but sometimes guys don’t adjust when they get into the playoffs when they need to.

To me, this was the first year that team had any depth at all. I've watched plenty of Toronto playoff games over the past several years. To my eyes, they've had three or four guys do all the work and it didn't always include the four guys you'd expect. Some years one of the main four would be off (which happens) and the rest of the team was just meh. This year they had some depth at forward but were still sending out meh defense and goalies. Some of this is also on the players. The coach can give them a structure and game plan and emphasis but if the players don't execute it that's not really on the coach. Do I think that the Toronto stars have bought in and give 100% to do the ugly stuff that stars don't like to do? I'll say I'm skeptical. Does that mean Keefe won't get buy in with NJ? I have no idea. But it doesn't help that in close playoff games it can often come down to the goalie and Toronto has continued to fail there. That's not on the coach. Nylander stepped it up this season and looked good in the playoffs for the most part in my opinion. Marner and Matthews just still look like they aren't really getting into the playoff mode they need to play to be successful. Sort of like NJ flopped against Carolina. They just didn't have any answer for the clutch and grab that goes uncalled in the playoffs. The difference is that the main guys in Toronto have seen it over and over and I'm surprised they haven't figured it out.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Facebook fans already losing their f***ing shit at there even being a hint that Keefe could be hired.

Add reddit and twitter there as well. The reddit commenters are completely lost.

 

[Unknown Caller]

This is absolutely my most valid concern regarding Keefe as well.



Take it for what it's worth.

James Nichols' recap of the Friedman clip is that Friedman heard the Devils were leaning Woodcroft this morning (which is obviously after Keefe was fired).

Why is it so difficult for us to get an accurate summary of what someone says?

 

[Guttersniped]

One of the hockey analytics twitter accounts made this point. Matthews and Marner's xGF% actually goes up in the playoffs, while many other superstars stay the same or go down. The difference is in finishing and quantity.

In other words, if anything Matthews and Marner sacrifice too much offense for defense in the playoffs.

Marner and Matthews played with Jarnkrok last year. Jarnkrok had 4 goals in 75 playoff games before coming to Toronto.

They have a forward depth problem.

And you have to get offense from your defense. Toronto relies on a slightly powered-up Severson to provide all their offense and most of their transition/puck moving from the blue-line.

It’s f***ed up man.

Reilly plays a good amount with the Tavares line too so they don’t even get him all the time. The spread the wealth approach works better in the regular season.

Edmonton’s approach to their roster ugliness is the opposite.

McDraisaitl play 28 minutes in close playoff games, cheat on defense, and always get the best defensive pair. Ekholm/Bouchard are glued to McDraisaitl.

The Oilers eventually lose when McD fail to produce enough to outscore their defensive blunders plus the atrocities being committed by Nurse/Ceci with the scrubs. So that doesn’t work either, it’s a team game.

In their 8 playoff games this year Nurse/Ceci have 3GF/9GA 5v5. (A sweet 25% GF%.)
They’re xGF% is only 34.04%, so they’ve been unlucky as well as terrible lol.

 

[Guttersniped]

James Nichols' recap of the Friedman clip is that Friedman heard the Devils were leaning Woodcroft this morning (which is obviously after Keefe was fired).

Why is it so difficult for us to get an accurate summary of what someone says?

I’m a bit wary of Woodcroft, because he’s had shit roster depth too, but their goalies get shelled like they were on Omaha Beach in ‘44.

Maybe he gets better defensive results with a less garbage defense but who knows…

 

[tailfins]

If you’re saying Marner and Matthews were worse defensively in the playoffs, you’re wrong.

Marner 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
65.71 GF% 2.74 GF/60 1.43 GA/60
58.17 xGF% 2.87 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Matthews 2021-24 playoffs 5v5
60.00 GF% 2.47 GF/60 1.65 GA/60
59.34 xGF% 3.02 xGF/60 2.06 xGA/60

Their problem wasn’t “little mistakes” by Marner & Matthews, it was glaring mistakes or shitty play by teammates plus (at times) a lack of offensive production from the core.

One of the hockey analytics twitter accounts made this point. Matthews and Marner's xGF% actually goes up in the playoffs, while many other superstars stay the same or go down. The difference is in finishing and quantity.

In other words, if anything Matthews and Marner sacrifice too much offense for defense in the playoffs.

In my defense, I was making stuff up without looking at any data.

Well, that's not entirely true. People have looked at shot distance for the Leafs, and their big four guys all are shooting from further out in the playoffs vs regular season.

Others have used that data to say it's proof that the Leafs are soft / don't have the required grit to get to the net in the playoffs.

My assumption was that the increase in shot distance was a result of playing better teams. And, so, if you're going to score less, you need to give up less.

But, perhaps it's the other way. And perhaps the Leafs are focused on giving up less so much that they score less.

 

[My3Sons]

I’m a bit wary of Woodcroft, because he’s had shit roster depth too, but their goalies get shelled like they were on Omaha Beach in ‘44.

Maybe he gets better defensive results with a less garbage defense but who knows…

To me it looked more like the Falaise Pocket.

 

[Blackjack]

The Oilers eventually lose when McD fail to produce enough to outscore their defensive blunders plus the atrocities being committed by Nurse/Ceci with the scrubs. So that doesn’t work either, it’s a team game.

Can we just take a moment to appreciate how awful you have to be that not even Conor f***ing McDavid can drag your ass over the line?

I’m a bit wary of Woodcroft, because he’s had shit roster depth too, but their goalies get shelled like they were on Omaha Beach in ‘44.

Maybe he gets better defensive results with a less garbage defense but who knows…

I really like the qualifier here. Gotta say, the shelling on Omaha beach wasn't really that bad in '45!

 

[tailfins]

Did some actual work before posting this time.

In their last 25 post season game, the Leafs are 11-14.
Sv pct: .931
GAA: 2.08
GFA: 2.76

In their 14 losses:
Sv pct: .922
GAA: 2.4
GFA: 2.0

In their 11 wins:
Sv pct: .944
GAA: 1.6
GFA: 3.7

So, way bigger swing in Goals For than Goals Against (or Sv pct) between wins and losses.

IMO, this basically supports all the arguments that the Leafs had a scoring problem (and not a defense / goaltending problem) in the playoffs.

Not sure what this means for Keefe as a coach though. It supports the idea that he can get defensive performance from his team. But what about the big swing in offense between wins and losses? That could suggest his teams either had trouble consistently executing an offensive game plan, or that the opposition was able to adjust to the Leafs game plan quickly (which is the "he got outcoached" argument).

Or maybe there's something else?

 

[Saugus]

The Reddit fans seem to be for it. I put their IQs at around the same level.

The Reddit fans also have brain worms, but it's a different species of brain worms than the Facebook crowd.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Then who is your ideal hire of the candidates actually available?

Berube clearly the beat candidate. We need a strong voice as Fitzy has stated. If toronto scoops him up next choice would be woodcroft. He got a raw deal in edmonton and doesn’t have a long list of playoff failures like keefe

Nothing says "I have a serious opinion" like intentionally misspelling someones last name into a juvenile insult!

Thats what they call him around toronto

 

[HersheyBob27]

Bob and FB fans hating Keefe means its the right decision

Gotta lean towards the guys that think the best way to pick a coach is with a calculator

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Did some actual work before posting this time.

In their last 25 post season game, the Leafs are 11-14.
Sv pct: .931
GAA: 2.08
GFA: 2.76

In their 14 losses:
Sv pct: .922
GAA: 2.4
GFA: 2.0

In their 11 wins:
Sv pct: .944
GAA: 1.6
GFA: 3.7

So, way bigger swing in Goals For than Goals Against (or Sv pct) between wins and losses.

IMO, this basically supports all the arguments that the Leafs had a scoring problem (and not a defense / goaltending problem) in the playoffs.

Not sure what this means for Keefe as a coach though. It supports the idea that he can get defensive performance from his team. But what about the big swing in offense between wins and losses? That could suggest his teams either had trouble consistently executing an offensive game plan, or that the opposition was able to adjust to the Leafs game plan quickly (which is the "he got outcoached" argument).

Or maybe there's something else?

The scoring problem is definitely related to the way their D is constructed. They really leaned into the “hard to play against” no skill turds in recent years. Lyubushkin and Edmundson are dreadful.

 

[RANDOMH3RO]

It’s really hard to gauge what coach would be successful on each team. Any one of us has zero insight into what they’re actually like as a coach, and most opinions boil down to a pass fail system of “has won an important game/has not won an important game”. I think Keefe would be a good hire, Toronto has been a good team for his entire tenure. Torontos problems seem to be based more on their cap structure leaving them with no depth and a blue line of nobodies.

 

[Bcap88]

Woodcroft thread

 

[RSeen]

I'd like us to get Woodcroft.

I would hope he could get our PP to be better - we obviously do not have McDavid or Draisaitl but we have some good pieces.

We should also in theory be able to give him more depth to work with up front and certainly on the back end.

 

[Alex NJD]

I'd like us to get Woodcroft.

I would hope he could get our PP to be better - we obviously do not have McDavid or Draisaitl but we have some good pieces.

We should also in theory be able to give him more depth to work with up front and certainly on the back end.

I feel like if a coach, whether that be the HC or whoever else runs the powerplay, can't create an above average power play with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton or Luke Hughes at their disposal then they are a bad coach.

I think Woodcroft is a great candidate for the job and think he could get our PP on track

 

[NjDevsRR]

Avoiding Mclellan and Berube with a Keefe or Woodcroft would be a massive score for this team. These two are coaches who can fit in well and grow with the team

 

[MartyOwns]

you guys realize that on average, hf’s are just as stupid as redditors, right? have another 8 day symposium on the meaning of grit. my god, jim’s comments about nico and hughes ALONE are dumber than literally anything i’ve ever seen on devils reddit or facebook.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Jim’s opinions are more rational and he has about a zillion times more hockey knowledge than 95% of the knuckle draggers on FB. The quality of commentary here is infinitely better than anything on social media, I have no idea what you’re looking at.

 

[Guttersniped]

Berube clearly the beat candidate. We need a strong voice as Fitzy has stated. If toronto scoops him up next choice would be woodcroft. He got a raw deal in edmonton and doesn’t have a long list of playoff failures like keefe

Look, here’s Keefe all screamy and cussing!



It didn’t stop Galchenyuk from passing the puck directly to Cole Caufield in OT, but Gally’s an idiot.

View attachment 870139
you guys realize that on average, hf’s are just as stupid as redditors, right? have another 8 day symposium on the meaning of grit. my god, jim’s comments about nico and hughes ALONE are dumber than literally anything i’ve ever seen on devils reddit or facebook.