NEW: Grier Talks Smith's Development Plan, Celebrini's Injury

[coooldude]

Here are some stats about top 5 draft picks since 2010.

- 1 #1 pick has won the cup (MacKinnon) and another 1 played in a final (Ekblad). 2 more have made it to a CF (McDavid & Nuge)

- 3 #2 draft picks have won a cup (Seguin, Landeskog & Eichel), and another 2 have played in a cup final (Barkov & Reinhart). 1 more has played in a CF (Svechnikov)

- 0 #3 draft picks have won the cup. 3 have played in a final (Heiskanen, Kotkaniemi & Drouin). 1 more has played in a CF (Draisaitl)

- 2 #4 picks have won the cup (Makar & Byram) and another 2 have played in a Final (Johansen & Bennett). 1 more has played in a CF (Larsson).

- 0 #5 picks have won or played for a cup. Only 1 has played in a CF (Niederreiter)

So out of 70 picks, we have:

6 Cup Winners
8 Finalists
6 Conference Finalists

20 players in total, representing 9 teams (Colorado, Florida, Edmonton, Boston, Vegas, Carolina, Dallas, Montreal, and Nashville). Of those teams, Boston, Nashville, and Vegas traded for the player or draft slot (not 100% on this). 27 teams selected picks, notably Pittsburgh, Washington, Vegas, Minnesota, and St Louis, all cup winners (except MIN) in the time frame, did not pick.

2010s was not a good time to be bad

Aside from the potential issues with drawing an arbitrary line at 5th, You haven't given it enough time. Guys drafted in 2011 are 30 years old. In many cases, they're still in their prime. If the Avs manage their salaries and roster well, their window with Makar and MacKinnon could be another 6 years.

Doing the basic math = guys drafted in 2016 or later are still under 25 years old. Connor McDavid is 26 years old. Not yet time to determine that "2010's was not a good time to be bad."

 

[coooldude]

Thanks for listening!

Maybe it's my fault for not defining "tank" clearly enough. I think there are shades on how hard you try to lose. To me, to "tank" is on the more extreme side. Just being bad isn't a tank, in my mind.

I've given this example elsewhere, but to me, a "tank" move would be to give Aaron Dell your No. 2 goalie job this past summer instead of acquiring Blackwood to compete for No. 1. The Sharks, of course, aren't in position to invest heavily in their goaltending right now. So a high-ceiling reclamation project like Blackwood makes perfect sense for them. He works out, maybe you've found your starter for the next few years. He doesn't, not much lost.

So my overall point, high draft picks are important, but you don't, by my definition, need to tank to get them. In a lot of the examples that I offered on the pod, the teams got high picks, but they were more bad unintentionally than anything.

Big picture, I think what Grier doing is right. Try to keep the Sharks competitive with low-risk moves, if it works out, that's great, you've given a youngster like say Eklund a very positive experience of playing with good, productive pros and maybe experience a playoff chase. If it doesn't work, great, you're on the highway to a high pick.

And as we saw in many examples too, a lot of recent high-end teams benefited from winning the lottery too. So you don't have to be as bad as possible to still get those high picks.

Yep, I understand and I'm generally with you. I think Grier is doing the right thing. We have multiple lines of reclamation projects, a reclamation goalie, and a bunch of promising kids. Truly, kids.

I don't think we need to field an AHL team (like the Hawks essentially did or the Ducks are kind of doing). However, I'm definitely on board with committing to a fire sale at the deadline, because there's still going to be a huge difference between a top 5 pick and a top 15 pick, in the grand scheme and over multiple down years (which we are currently in, and I expect will be in for 3-4 more years).

We have to be prepared for multiple down years, even if we don't meet Sheng's definition of "tank." I suspect Grier and Hasso know this and are committed to it. The only move the team has made that doesn't agree with this is extending Hertl, and that happened before Grier.

 

[tiburon12]

Aside from the potential issues with drawing an arbitrary line at 5th, You haven't given it enough time. Guys drafted in 2011 are 30 years old. In many cases, they're still in their prime. If the Avs manage their salaries and roster well, their window with Makar and MacKinnon could be another 6 years.

Doing the basic math = guys drafted in 2016 or later are still under 25 years old. Connor McDavid is 26 years old. Not yet time to determine that "2010's was not a good time to be bad."

5th is far from arbitrary; it's a standard cut off point for "top draft picks". To your other point, yes it's still early in some cases, but in others it's not. Just for reference, Gretzky had his best seasons and won all his cups before 27, around same age that Lemieux won his cups, when Sakic/Forsberg and Niedermayer/Broduer won their firsts, when Leetch/Richter won, before Bobby Orr fell apart, etc.

For more recent comparables, look the 2000s draftees and when they won. Chicago won with Kane and Toews at ages 22/23, Crosby and Malkin were ages 22/23, Doughty and Kopitar at 23/25. Those star players came in immediately and had success. Even Stamkos and Hedman made the SCF at 24/25.

Point is, we had 3 examples of teams teams that accumulated high picks and won immediately and often. In contrast, the teams that had the highest picks in the 10s, like Edmonton, Toronto Buffalo, CBJ, Arizona, etc, havent done anything. Yes you have your Atlantas and Caps that had a lot of high picks and didnt go anywhere, but there are no recent examples of set of excellent talent coming into a team and winning like there historically has been.

 

[coooldude]

5th is far from arbitrary; it's a standard cut off point for "top draft picks". To your other point, yes it's still early in some cases, but in others it's not. Just for reference, Gretzky had his best seasons and won all his cups before 27, around same age that Lemieux won his cups, when Sakic/Forsberg and Niedermayer/Broduer won their firsts, when Leetch/Richter won, before Bobby Orr fell apart, etc.

For more recent comparables, look the 2000s draftees and when they won. Chicago won with Kane and Toews at ages 22/23, Crosby and Malkin were ages 22/23, Doughty and Kopitar at 23/25. Those star players came in immediately and had success. Even Stamkos and Hedman made the SCF at 24/25.

Point is, we had 3 examples of teams teams that accumulated high picks and won immediately and often. In contrast, the teams that had the highest picks in the 10s, like Edmonton, Toronto Buffalo, CBJ, Arizona, etc, havent done anything. Yes you have your Atlantas and Caps that had a lot of high picks and didnt go anywhere, but there are no recent examples of set of excellent talent coming into a team and winning like there historically has been.

It sounds like you and I agree more than we disagree. It often was the case in the 2010's that the young talent was the icing on the cake, my point was simply that there were other significant players that were drafted many years (in some cases 5+) before the generational player took them over the edge. Keith before Kane/Toews, Landeskog/Rantanen before Makar was the missing piece, and so on. And therefore, I think the jury is still out on 2016-2020 draft years. The Stamkos/Hedman example is a very good one exactly because they didn't win even though they got far. That describes a number of star players in the 2010's so far, and I expect a lot more in the next few years will get close and not win - and some will win.

Calgary, Vancouver, Buffalo, CBJ, Arizona are all great examples. Preds are a perfect example - not only did they not have a lot of very high picks, they seemed to only get lukewarm hits on many of them. Detroit is currently a good example, but they have a solid roster that could really tip into playoff perennial with 1-2 high pick hits.

I take issue with your EDM example, who obviously had what, 5 1OA picks, ridiculously? They aren't a good example for a team that hasn't done anything because they had the highest picks in the 10's, since they had many very high picks and two are sticking in McD and Drai. Haven't won yet, but they have a contention window for sure. Toronto is not a great example either, with Matthews at 1OA and Marner at 4OA. Yes, they haven't won anything yet... No, I don't think their window is closed or that they are a pretender team.

 

[Sheng Peng]

Yep, I understand and I'm generally with you. I think Grier is doing the right thing. We have multiple lines of reclamation projects, a reclamation goalie, and a bunch of promising kids. Truly, kids.

I don't think we need to field an AHL team (like the Hawks essentially did or the Ducks are kind of doing). However, I'm definitely on board with committing to a fire sale at the deadline, because there's still going to be a huge difference between a top 5 pick and a top 15 pick, in the grand scheme and over multiple down years (which we are currently in, and I expect will be in for 3-4 more years).

We have to be prepared for multiple down years, even if we don't meet Sheng's definition of "tank." I suspect Grier and Hasso know this and are committed to it. The only move the team has made that doesn't agree with this is extending Hertl, and that happened before Grier.

Unless the Sharks are close in the playoff hunt or in the playoffs, I 100 percent agree they should sell at the Deadline.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Hertl joined Sheng after practice last week! Great interview, full of patented Tomas smiles. We also went through a ton of Sharks draft picks to build a disappointing and surprising Sharks prospect teams. Excited for next week's episode where we'll talk about the rookie faceoff.

Audio only: San Jose Hockey Now Podcast | San Jose Hockey Now Podcast #14: Hertl Got "Leaner" Over Summer, Wants To Put Less Pressure on Himself

 

[Kcoyote3]

No interview this week, but we did run through (most) of the prospects from this weekend's slate of games. Sheng shares some quotes from McCarthy about different prospects as well.

Audio only: San Jose Hockey Now Podcast | San Jose Hockey Now Podcast #15: Rookie Faceoff Reaction

 

[Kcoyote3]

We go through the locks and the players in the mix for making the NHL roster on opening night. Forwards, D, then goalies. We name our 23 man roster, talk about who gets moved, waived, etc. We also mention a lot of observations from training camp of other guys who are likely Barracuda or juniors bound. Thanks for listening!

Audio only: San Jose Hockey Now Podcast | San Jose Hockey Now Podcast #16: Our Projected Sharks Opening Night Roster

 

[Kcoyote3]

This week on the SJHN Podcast: Ryan Miller talks his new job with the Sharks, goalie trends, and how he played a small part in making an NHL team a reality in the Bay Area back in the day.

Also training camp news and notes because of course.

 

[OffSydes]

I know he didn't mean it that way but Miller talking about how other jobs would require too much work so he took the job with Sharks makes it seems like he is gonna half-ass it

 

[Kcoyote3]

I know he didn't mean it that way but Miller talking about how other jobs would require too much work so he took the job with Sharks makes it seems like he is gonna half-ass it

The vibe I got talking with him was that he didn’t want to commit to a high-stress job right after his playing days were over but was intrigued with growing his role with San Jose. I also think the competitive spirit in him is going to mean he gets more dedicated as he gets further into the scouting, drafting, developing side of things. Just my opinion of course. I think it changed my expectation of what I thought his job was though.

 

[tiburon12]

So.....

you guys may have been Kevin Constantine's last podcast.

 

[one2gamble]

Unless the Sharks are close in the playoff hunt or in the playoffs, I 100 percent agree they should sell at the Deadline.

they should sell if they are close to the edge either in or out. 7/8/9 position should trigger a sell off.

 

[Hodge]

they should sell if they are close to the edge either in or out. 7/8/9 position should trigger a sell off.

Who are we even selling off? Duclair is more of a contract extension candidate, I doubt many playoff teams are gonna be crazy about adding Barabanov, and our list of pending UFAs gets significantly worse from there.

 

[one2gamble]

Who are we even selling off? Duclair is more of a contract extension candidate, I doubt many playoff teams are gonna be crazy about adding Barabanov, and our list of pending UFAs gets significantly worse from there.

you cant answer this question right now. If the Sharks are in the playoff hunt it means some of those reclamation projects are playing above expectations.

 

[Kcoyote3]

My favorite episode so far. Scott joins to talk all about defensive defensemen, where he sees the Sharks compared to some of the great teams he played for, and what the future may hold. Also talks about his new job with NBC. He's also my cousin by marriage, and we talk about how him getting drafted when I was younger made me a lifelong Sharks fan. Think I've told that story on here before, but this was awesome to talk with him.

 

[hohosaregood]

My favorite episode so far. Scott joins to talk all about defensive defensemen, where he sees the Sharks compared to some of the great teams he played for, and what the future may hold. Also talks about his new job with NBC. He's also my cousin by marriage, and we talk about how him getting drafted when I was younger made me a lifelong Sharks fan. Think I've told that story on here before, but this was awesome to talk with him.

Finally coming full circle lol.

 

[tiburon12]

My favorite episode so far. Scott joins to talk all about defensive defensemen, where he sees the Sharks compared to some of the great teams he played for, and what the future may hold. Also talks about his new job with NBC. He's also my cousin by marriage, and we talk about how him getting drafted when I was younger made me a lifelong Sharks fan. Think I've told that story on here before, but this was awesome to talk with him.

I appreciated that discourse on the 2013 team. I always felt that was the best team we had and if it wasnt for the stupid Torres suspension and Pavs not lifting the puck, we would have had a real shot at winning.

 

[Alaskanice]

I appreciated that discourse on the 2013 team. I always felt that was the best team we had and if it wasnt for the stupid Torres suspension and Pavs not lifting the puck, we would have had a real shot at winning.

So true.

 

[Kcoyote3]

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

In 1997, Al Sims, who took the team to a 27-47-8 finish -- last in the NHL's Pacific Division and second- worst in the league. I think this was the worst Sharks team of all-time. If you were a Sharks fan back then , you would know.

 

[Barrie22]

In 1997, Al Sims, who took the team to a 27-47-8 finish -- last in the NHL's Pacific Division and second- worst in the league. I think this was the worst Sharks team of all-time. If you were a Sharks fan back then , you would know.

Not even close to the worst sharks team of all time.

 

[Alaskanice]

Not even close to the worst sharks team of all time.

11 wins.

 

[gaucholoco3]

I love the pod. One quick thing that would help is that when I listen Peng is really loud and you are quiet. I don’t know if that can be adjusted in post production or if ’s need to be adjusted.

Thank you. Keep up the amazing work.

 

[timorous me]

I love the pod. One quick thing that would help is that when I listen Peng is really loud and you are quiet. I don’t know if that can be adjusted in post production or if ’s need to be adjusted.

Thank you. Keep up the amazing work.

Ha, I was thinking of this a night ago when I couldn't sleep so I put the podcast on in bed and eventually gave up because every time I'd start to drift off, Sheng would wake me up!

I've never actually been bothered by it otherwise, but maybe it's actually a brilliant tactic: no falling asleep during the show allowed!