landy92mack29
Registered User
huh would you look at that another team locking up a elite young talent instead of walking them to free agency....
Small sample so far but Bichette looks like he's back and Vlad looks like dog poop
Blue Jays Discussion: New Contract offer to Vladdy? Berrios opening Day pitcher
- Thread starter Anthrax442
- Start date
huh would you look at that another team locking up a elite young talent instead of walking them to free agency....
Small sample so far but Bichette looks like he's back and Vlad looks like dog poop
LaP
Registered User
All stats don't work in small sample. It's something that people should know. If you take the best and worst 6 games sequence of every players in the league they would all look terrible in their worst 6 games sequence of the season and they would all look outstanding in their best 6 games sequence of the season. It's just that for some players one of those sequences lines up with the beginning of the season and uneducated people bothers other with stupid hot takes for a week or two.
CabanaBoy5
Registered User
Yikes, Lucas pitching, Schneider Straw and Heineman not hitting, this looks like a good game for Vladdy and Santander to hit a few homers.
Kurtz
Registered User
- Jul 17, 2005
- 10,030
- 7,897
There is a bit of a distinction though between offensive and defensive advanced stats.
For example, we know he won't keep this up, but our eyes say Gimenez has been great offensively - and offensive stats back this up. But on defense, our eyes say Gimenez has also been good, but defensive stats say no, don't believe your eyes, he's actually been awful.
I think the issue goes beyond sample size and rests on the fact that publically available defensive metrics just aren't very reliable in general - especially compared to offensive metrics.
Lucas has a great minor league resume, but struggles up in the bigs.
It’s not inconceivable that he smoothes that out. Fingers crossed.
Eh, right now what the defensive stats say about Gimenez is that he missed one play he was expected to make. By the eye test, he's made a couple solid plays (nothing spectacular) and I think he dove for a couple balls he couldn't quite get to. Somewhere in the -1 to +1 range makes sense logically.
At the same time, I would say the advanced stats don't match up with how Vladdy has looked at the plate. He's been swinging and missing too much, but he's also been absolutely hammering the ball all over the place and not getting the results. I don't think a 75 wRC+ matches the eye test for him.
Data on both sides is mostly useless on samples this small - good players play poorly or make mistakes sometimes, bad players have hot streaks or good games sometimes, both have stretches where they're extremely lucky or unlucky, and all of this applies on both sides of the ball.
Last edited:
One thing that the stats don't pick up is how much faster Gimenez is at 2nd on the DP turn. It's really impressive.
Yeah, he seems really smooth and quick in everything he does. It's really easy to see why he's such a good defender. You can definitely pick out things that stats are missing, but I think (especially with Statcast data) it's probably roughly accurate, and likely a hell of a lot better than going off of the eye test.
Kurtz
Registered User
- Jul 17, 2005
- 10,030
- 7,897
I think in general, the eye test might be superior to publically available advanced stats when it comes to measuring defense. Advanced stats are a bit too context-dependent, ie you might be playing with rangy teammates who steal your outs, or you may not be allowed to play your best defensive position. (ie Varsho year 1 vs year 2).
Where advanced stats shine imo is in their ability to add context to what you see: ie all those amazing diving catches that Pillar makes, do they mean that he's an amazing defender? Well, advanced stats can tell us for example that his reaction time is slower than your average CF and his routes are bad, meaning he wouldn't have to dive in the first place if he was better in those metrics.
Maybe the answer is that both are important but flawed and need to be used together for proper assesment.
to be fair, Merrills season last night would be Vladdy's second best season. I'm also pretty sure we offered him something similar earlier in his career and he turned it down.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
He made a play in the 6th inning last night which the broadcast didn't mention but temporarily saved a run and could have been huge.
Runner on first and he was moving to his left on a slow grounder and 95% of 2B in MLB would have taken the safe play at first but he threw against the grain to just barely get the guy at 2nd. Next batter singles and instead of the guy at 2nd scoring it's runners at 1st and 3rd. Washington managed to cash the guy in from 3rd later anyway but it was a fantastic play and highlighted the incredible internal clock he has that they quoted Ernie Clement as talking about in a prior game.
I would completely agree with that, but I would add that I think the eye test is way more flawed because we vastly overestimate our own ability to evaluate plays, retain information over a long period, and remove bias. I think almost every fan is pretty terrible at that stuff.
Yeah, that was a really smart, heads up play that most players don't make. I don't know how/if any advanced stats quantify something like that: most players make that play, but they get the out at 1B. So he didn't make an extra out, but he did lower the opponent's run expectancy by getting the lead runner.
trellaine201
Registered User
landy92mack29
Registered User
What a bizarre extension.
Marte is 31 and they already had him locked up through his 34 y/o season. They're paying a huge amount of money to lock him up for his age 35-37 y/o seasons in a league where virtually nobody can still hit effectively past age 35.
dredeye
BJ Elitist/Hipster
- Mar 3, 2008
- 27,072
- 3,428
If Vlad has a down year I wonder how much it costs him.
Seath The Scaleless
Paledrake
If Vlad has a down year by his standards—say, an .810 OPS and 3.5 WAR—maybe the Jays opt to move on, sign a cheaper option at 1B like Naylor, and use the $450 million in savings to land a big-time starting pitcher, and address other roster needs like the bullpen to match or exceed Vlad’s departing WAR. He’ll likely have a strong season, but this is baseball, not the NBA—where one player can make all the difference. There are plenty of ways to replace his production. Basically, it wouldn’t be nearly as devastating as losing a superstar in the NBA, like a prime Kawhi or someone like that.
