There's a lot of positives with the ability to play within and maintain composure to win close games. It reflects this team's character, resiliency, and experience. It's good to see Pickard step up through this recent period as well with a consistent game and saves on the line within team breakdowns at critical moments. They look to be starting to lock in defensively though which is vital to playoff success.
All said, there are areas of concern beginning with health of super elites and other core roster guys which haven't effected this team before during stretch drive hockey. And this team's personnel hasn't been able to outscore their problems despite being tops in league shot volume. With volatile goaltending this is a vulnerability.
Three Year Team Scoring Results:
2024-25 | | 2023-24 | | 2022-23 |
Shots: 2,403 NHL 99 percentile | | Shots: 2,783.5 99 percentile | | Shots: 2,754 83 percentile |
Goals: 242 NHL 74 percentile | | Goals: 292 90 percentile | | Goals: 325 99 percentile |
Shooting%: 10.1% NHL below 50th | | Shooting%: 10.6% 70 percentile | | Shooting%: 11.8% 99 percentile |
Oilers average shots on goal is 32, 1st in NHL, yet Oilers shooting is 10.1%, 22nd. NHL below 50 percentile. They have a -30 difference between X-Goals and Actual Goals production.
High Danger: 126 goals, 87 percentile. 19.7% NHL 51 percentile
Mid Range: 63 goals, NHL below 50 percentile. 10.6% NHL below 50 percentile
Long Range: 13 goals, NHL below 50 percentile. 2.4% NHL below 50 percentile
Total Goals:
239 goals., 70 percentile. 10.1% NHL below 50 percentile
Special Teams Three Year Actuals
2024-25: | | 2023-24: | | 2022-23: |
Oilers power play is 25.3%, 8th. | | Oilers power play is 26.34% | | Oilers power play is 32.36% |
Oilers penalty kill is 77%, 20th. | | Oilers penalty kill is 79.46% | | Oilers penalty kill is 76.98% |
Total Special Teams: 102.3 | | Total Special Teams: 105.8 | | Total Special Teams: 109.34 |
Most alarming is the regression in their starting goaltender's game per NHLEdge:
NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Comparisons
2024-25 | | 2023-24: | | 2022-23: | |
GAA: 2.91 | | GAA: 2.62 | | GAA: 2.75 | |
SV%: .894 | | SV%: .905 | | SV%: .914 | |
High Danger SV%: .791%. | | High Danger SV%: .806% | | High Danger SV%: .843% | |
Mid Range SV%: .898% | | Mid Range SV%: .904% | | Mid Range SV%: .898% | |
Games > .900: 22 | | Games > .900: 35 | | Games > .900: 28 | |
% Games > .900: 45.83% | | % Games > .900: 61.4% | | % Games > .900: 58.33% | |
2024-25 Really Bad Starts (under 85%): 12 (of 49 games played)
24% | | 2023-24 Really Bad Starts (under 85%): 11 (of 59 games played)
19% | | 2022-23 Really Bad Starts (under 85%): 9 (of 50 games played)
18% | |
| | | | | |
So ... injuries cloud things. What Draisaitl is doing with mediocre line mates and team wide production regression is Hart Trophy worthy. And criticism of Management personnel decisions off-season and in-season notably with goaltender regression is apropos.
EDIT: Sorry anyone reading this - long and my manual input failed with some year by year comps.