Necas over/under 100 points?

[gritdash60]

109 points

 

[Felidae]

I don’t think it’s that uncommon to see players hit a new level around or after 25. Zibanejad, Couturier, Huberdeau, the Sedins, Marchand, Tage Thompson are a few that came to mind. Nearly doubling last year would be a pretty major jump, but if he’s becoming a 80-90 point player for the next few years, 100 points with his hot start wouldn’t be too crazy of an outlier.

I agree that its not uncommon for players to peak later. But specifically, none of those guys had a 30+ point jump (20+ point jump, yeah) from their previous high at age 25 and above except for Courturier.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Arguably, Necas is the best Czech center since Michal Pivonka

He's not really a center for the Hurricanes. He's played on Kotkaniemi's or Drury's wing for most of the season.

 

[Gerulaitis]

oops!


I think Krejci, Straka, even Hertl were quite better... Pivonka played 80% of his career in high scoring hockey

On a serious note, I would rank them like that:

1, Reichel
2, Straka
3, Holik
4, Ruzicka
5, Krejci

 

[Mulletman]

A while ago, I was thinking of comparable starts to seasons from players who had never been in the Art Race race.

I don't remember how he did in his first 25 or so games, but Hubderdeau was surprisingly close to McDavid in scoring late in the 2022 season. He had been a top ten scorer over the previous few seasons, however

I remember Alex Steen was first in goals and points a few weeks into a season ('13-'14, I think). Necas is probably more talented offensively than Steen, but I don't see him staying in the top five for the remainder of the month. I can see him finishing about 12th in points and with about 92 on the season. I'll be surprised but not shocked if he hits 100. Definitely don't expect 105 or more.

The closest thing to anything like this was Mikko Rantanen back in 2018-19 when he was leading the NHL with 56 points in 33 games: NHL Stats
But everybody knew he was carried by MacKinnon and nobody thought he would have any shot at 100 points let alone the Art Ross. Not even @Murzu who's the president of the Mikko Rantanen fan club had any faith in him sustaining those numbers to the end of the season...

 

[Murzu]

The closest thing to anything like this was Mikko Rantanen back in 2018-19 when he was leading the NHL with 56 points in 33 games: NHL Stats
But everybody knew he was carried by MacKinnon and nobody thought he would have any shot at 100 points let alone the Art Ross. Not even @Murzu who's the president of the Mikko Rantanen fan club had any faith in him sustaining those numbers to the end of the season...

I love @Mulletman

 

[olli]

Given how well he’s playing in his increased role I think he’ll get just above 100 because even if his shooting percentage/oisp drop off getting 58 points in 55 games is still pretty doable.

 

[olli]

The closest thing to anything like this was Mikko Rantanen back in 2018-19 when he was leading the NHL with 56 points in 33 games: NHL Stats
But everybody knew he was carried by MacKinnon and nobody thought he would have any shot at 100 points let alone the Art Ross. Not even @Murzu who's the president of the Mikko Rantanen fan club had any faith in him sustaining those numbers to the end of the season...

That’s gotta be one of the sharpest drop offs in production ever for a 30+ game sample size in the first part. From December 15th onward he was 68th in p/g.

 

[bobholly39]

Very impressed with his start. If you had asked me to list 100 players likely to score 100 points this season, I don't think I'd have picked him.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he says it true, and tops 100. I think anywhere from ~90 to 105 points wouldn't surprise me. i'd be shocked if he surpasses 110 for example, as I do expect him to slow down

 

[HockeyWooot]

I voted no but he can very well do it, more on the likelihood more likely to fall slightly short.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I think he's got a good shot at surpassing Staal, but 105 might be tough.

5% more difficult in fact.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

5% more difficult in fact.

8.6% more if you consider he's already at 42

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

8.6% more if you consider he's already at 42

I'm not, and won't consider that at all

 

[Video Nasty]

Fading fast.

Just 7 points in his last 14 games, pointless in his past 6, pointless 9 times overall, and hasn’t scored a goal in 10 games. That has dropped his “pace” to 100.

His previous best PPG from here on out gets him to 84.

Happens every season. A fun first quarter to one third of the season for someone unexpected before they rapidly fall back to the pack.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Really talented player but I’ll take the under . Huge jump to go from a 60 / 70 ish guy to 100 . Could certainly happen but regression was bound to occur at some point .

 

[Fantast100]

Max 105 points.

 

[bobbyking]

shows how watered down the league is

 

[Video Nasty]

shows how watered down the league is

Yeah, it was so elite when Jaime Benn was our Art Ross winner ten years ago and players like Perry, Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Hudler, Foligno, and Voracek were among our top 10 scorers in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

Besides, Necas is currently 14th and continuing to slide.

 

[tarheelhockey]

He was on a hell of a heater to begin the season, but those shots just aren’t falling like they were before. Pretty standard regression.

 

[Calderon]

A funny race of a rabbit vs. a tortoise going on on the Canes. The slow and boring Aho will quietly eventually reach and pass Necas.

 

[bobbyking]

Yeah, it was so elite when Jaime Benn was our Art Ross winner ten years ago and players like Perry, Hall, Seguin, Kessel, Hudler, Foligno, and Voracek were among our top 10 scorers in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

Besides, Necas is currently 14th and continuing to slide.

good point