Obviously I’m just speculating and I know no more than anyone else does but my two cents …
I keep seeing people saying “this level will be the winners, this level will be the losers” . The two that I most commonly see being mentioned as losers happen to be the two I follow closest CIS and Tier 2.
In both cases I don’t think you can say the product will be affected negatively or positively as a whole . You almost are going to have to judge it on a league by league/conference and even team by team basis .
In USports I think you are kidding yourself if you don’t think the elite programs will be hurt , look at UNB’s top 6 , those are the kind of overages US teams would have had interest in , however I look at a team like Dalhousie and it probably has very little if any impact on them, so this could almost accomplish what the “roster cap” was intended to do and create more parity in the league.
The people who say “this hurts Jr.A the most” are actually saying “this hurts Jr.A out west and in the States the most” , the further East in Canada you go, the more tier 2 operates as a feeder to Major Junior and not the NCAA , hell before Josh Henry this past month I’m pretty sure the last Maritime League player to commit to a Div.1 team was Nadeau , so out west it could have a big impact but in leagues like the MHL and Quebec it could honesty be a good thing , more players going to Major Junior could push the bottom Q guys into tier 2 and raise the calibre , which would have a trickle down into Jr.B etc.
This is all speculation and as has been said so many moving parts and it will probably take a decade to get the full picture but what I’m trying to say is I don’t think it will be a black/white (good/bad) to those two levels that inevitably will be impacted most .