Value of: My (basically) full list of goalie valuations.

dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
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Based on age, contract, current level of play, play over the last 3 years. Retention is not considered in these valuations

Historical comparisons used as the basis, the peak of which over the last 10 years was cory schneider, an elite, 26 year old goalie, 1 for 1 for 9th overall

Top 5 pick worth of value:
Igor
Swayman

Top 10 pick of value
Demko
Oettinger
Saros
Sorokin
Hellebuyuck
Askarov
Wallstedt

Mid 1st of Value
Vasy
Ullmark
UPL
Montembault


Late 1st of value
Skinner
Knight
Levi
Connor Ingram
Logan Thompson
Pyotr

High 2nd of value
Hill
Binnington
Markstrom
Daccord


Mid 2nd of value
Gustafsson
Jarry
Hofer

3rd of value
Georgiev
Andersen
Blackwood
Mrazek

Cap dump:
Bobrovsky
Gibson
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Husso
 
Last edited:

dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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There’s no goalie worth a top 5 pick in any draft. The position is just not that valuable
Igor Shesterkin is that 1 guy.

Goaltenders aren't very valuable because of how volatile they are year to year, game to game.

Igor Shesterkin is the only goalie that has played at an elite level in each of the last 3 regular seasons and playoffs
 

dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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Levi given team control will cost more
Team control is great but there really is a limit for how much unproven goalies go for (it's why they rarely go in the 1st of drafts anymore), and I think he's a tier or 2 below Askarov and Wallstedt

Kochetkov from 12/12 (first game after the team meeting in Vancouver) through the end of the season:

30GS
.923 SV%
2.05 GAA
15.46 NST All Strengths GSAA (#3 in the sample)

3 years left at a $2 mil cap hit. Early 2nd round pedigree.
Very promising but a relatively small sample size and hasn't shown it as a true starter yet
 

dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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Thompson and Ingram, both mid-1st value, have?
You're right I should lump them all in the late 1st tier. Change made. I guess I didn't realize Pyotr made 40+ starts, and for some reason my brain had his contract at like 3 mill
 

dgibb10

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Montembeault is having solid numbers despite playing behind a top 5 worst defensive squad in the league
Hence why I have him as the 11th most valuable goalie (9th among non prospects)

I think you'd find a lot of people a lot lower on Monty than I am.

I think he is very very good
 
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Bouboumaster

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Jul 4, 2014
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Hence why I have him as the 11th most valuable goalie (9th among non prospects)

I think you'd find a lot of people a lot lower on Monty than I am.

I think he is very very good

I ain't disputing his placements in your list, quite in the contrary

The dude deserves to be placed where he is, because he's working with one of the worst defensive squad in Habs History and he's actually, somehow, above .900
 

Goptor

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Jun 30, 2016
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I would drop every player on that list down 1 tier and keep Igor in the top5 category.

There is too much inconsistency across the board and there is an over saturation at the position.

Look at UPL. He would have been a throw in to a trade last year and now you have him as a mid-1st with his performance this year. Vanacek and Samsonov would have been middle of the pack last year and now they aren't even worth mentioning this year.
 

dgibb10

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I ain't disputing his placements in your list, quite in the contrary

The dude deserves to be placed where he is, because he's working with one of the worst defensive squad in Habs History and he's actually, somehow, above .900
I would be very very interested in trying to get him in NJD, although I don't think MTL is too eager to get away from another stud french goalie
 

Bouboumaster

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Jul 4, 2014
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I would be very very interested in trying to get him in NJD, although I don't think MTL is too eager to get away from another stud french goalie

Without Monty we're basically f***ed lol
Primeau was good last year, but we don't know how consistant he is/is going to be
 

Djp

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Jul 28, 2012
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Team control is great but there really is a limit for how much unproven goalies go for (it's why they rarely go in the 1st of drafts anymore), and I think he's a tier or 2 below Askarov and Wallstedt


Very promising but a relatively small sample size and hasn't shown it as a true starter yet
Why is Askarov where he is? By that logic hes with Levi
 

The Don Hughes

Registered User
Jun 22, 2017
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Based on age, contract, current level of play, play over the last 3 years. Retention is not considered in these valuations

Historical comparisons used as the basis, the peak of which over the last 10 years was cory schneider, an elite, 26 year old goalie, 1 for 1 for 9th overall

Top 5 pick worth of value:
Igor
Swayman

Top 10 pick of value
Demko
Oettinger
Saros
Sorokin
Hellebuyuck
Askarov
Wallstedt

Mid 1st of Value
Vasy
Ullmark
UPL
Montembault


Late 1st of value
Skinner
Knight
Levi
Connor Ingram
Logan Thompson
Pyotr

High 2nd of value
Hill
Binnington
Markstrom
Daccord


Mid 2nd of value
Gustafsson
Jarry
Hofer

3rd of value
Georgiev
Andersen
Blackwood
Mrazek

Cap dump:
Bobrovsky
Gibson
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Husso
I can't see any goalie holding a top 5 value. Igor is on the verge of making bank and Swayman is a few years away from huge cap hit as well. Only way I could see a top 5 pick being moved for a goalie, is if a team wins the lottery and jumps from 16-15-14-13-12 into the top 5. Otherwise, top 5 teams are usually more than a goalie away from being good.
 

Forge

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Jul 4, 2018
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Markstrom is going to NJ I think. I'm 80% sure. The return will either be Holtz or 10OA for Markstrom, 28OA and a 3rd round pick. He'll be just what NJ needs despite the hand wringing from their posters here.

Fitz won't have a job is he tries a B goalie who gets lit up for a 4th time.

Semantics, but Markstrom is a B goalie. He's an above average goalie capable of really good stretches like a lot of similar goalies in that tier. He's definitely not in the A tier.

A guy like Vanacek would have been your C and D tier guys
 

Zirakzigil

Global Moderator
Jul 5, 2010
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Based on age, contract, current level of play, play over the last 3 years. Retention is not considered in these valuations

Historical comparisons used as the basis, the peak of which over the last 10 years was cory schneider, an elite, 26 year old goalie, 1 for 1 for 9th overall

Top 5 pick worth of value:
Igor
Swayman

Top 10 pick of value
Demko
Oettinger
Saros
Sorokin
Hellebuyuck
Askarov
Wallstedt

Mid 1st of Value
Vasy
Ullmark
UPL
Montembault


Late 1st of value
Skinner
Knight
Levi
Connor Ingram
Logan Thompson
Pyotr

High 2nd of value
Hill
Binnington
Markstrom
Daccord


Mid 2nd of value
Gustafsson
Jarry
Hofer

3rd of value
Georgiev
Andersen
Blackwood
Mrazek

Cap dump:
Bobrovsky
Gibson
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Husso
giphy.gif


Disagree with most of this. Thinking that the Panther value Bobrovsky as a cap dump is hilarious.
 
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RandV

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Jul 29, 2003
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Igor Shesterkin is that 1 guy.

Goaltenders aren't very valuable because of how volatile they are year to year, game to game.

Igor Shesterkin is the only goalie that has played at an elite level in each of the last 3 regular seasons and playoffs
I feel like a lot of people create a misconception about goalies when they try to assign a perceived "value" to them. Like lets say Toronto, or any other Cup aspiring team without good goaltending, had the 5th overall pick to play with. So they could just have their pick of any goalie in the league?

Hell no. The thing that puts goalie valuation if is a team only needs 1 starter and if they have a good one they're going to stick with him. This makes the 'buy' price incredibly high - you don't see say a Tampa of recent years suddenly decide to trade Vasilevskiy because they got a really good trade offer for him.

On the other hand, if a team has reason to move on from their goalie, maybe Nashville has a young guy that makes Saros expendable, the 'sell' price of a goalie is much lower than the 'buy' price because there's only a limited number of teams that are going to need a starter right now. How many teams have a need and how much they're willing to pay is going to vary from year to year.

So overall you get this weird dynamic where for a team without it's very hard to acquire quality goaltending but in the rare instance when one is available for trade it's hard for that team to get good value for him.
 

bernmeister

Registered User
Jun 11, 2010
28,621
4,193
Da Big Apple
Based on age, contract, current level of play, play over the last 3 years. Retention is not considered in these valuations

Historical comparisons used as the basis, the peak of which over the last 10 years was cory schneider, an elite, 26 year old goalie, 1 for 1 for 9th overall

Top 5 pick worth of value:
Igor
Swayman

Top 10 pick of value
Demko
Oettinger
Saros
Sorokin
Hellebuyuck
Askarov
Wallstedt

Mid 1st of Value
Vasy
Ullmark
UPL
Montembault


Late 1st of value
Skinner
Knight
Levi
Connor Ingram
Logan Thompson
Pyotr

High 2nd of value
Hill
Binnington
Markstrom
Daccord


Mid 2nd of value
Gustafsson
Jarry
Hofer

3rd of value
Georgiev
Andersen
Blackwood
Mrazek

Cap dump:
Bobrovsky
Gibson
Merzlikins
Korpisalo
Husso
general agree esp on Shesty as a top pick esp given his current deal, last yr, is like insane 5.6 ish
 

Soundgarden

Registered User
Jul 22, 2008
18,236
7,162
Spring Hill, TN
Considering Cossa outplayed both Wallstedt and Askarov this season and has similar draft pedigree and projection, is he worth a top 10 pick too?

I think you grossly overvalue unproven prospect goalie values.
I wouldn't say he outplayed them, Askarov had 30 wins 6 shutouts, 2.39GA and 911% while Cossa had 22 wins 2 shutouts, 2.41 and 913%
 

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