Confirmed Signing with Link: [MTL] D Kaiden Guhle signs extension with the Canadiens (6 years, $5.55M AAV; begins 2025-26)

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You are kind of right and wrong. Yes....we need to improve at centre. But, we can also do that in house with Suzuki continuing to improve, and Dach returning from injury. Many had Dach as equal to Suzuki 16 months ago. Kind of like you Suzuki + Suzuki analogy.

We are happy right now with our Centre depth and see potential for Suzuki to get even better for a number of reasons.....Slaf gets better. Caufield had a horrible shooting percentage. Dach creates a two line team and takes some pressure away from Suzuki.

Do our centres need to be better? Yes. Can it be from within? Yes.

I don't even disagree, I actually think Hage may have the best potential to fill that role. Suzuki - Dach - Hage could be a top 10 1-2-3 center punch.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Because I congratulated the Habs on this signing and said they have a great young core that probably needs to improve at center to win a cup. And then half a dozen habs fans attacked me.

Lol I know, right?

I was about to jump on the "Let's trash talk that dude" train myself but than I went to your original take and it seemed pretty reasonnable

I guess some of us are feeling à bit unhinged today

I disagree however with your ROR/Suzuki take

Suzuki didn't had the chance to shine yet since he's playing on what can only be called a "Garbage team" but he'll be recognize sooner than latter as a solid two ways players

There's at least one Selke in Suzuki's future

 

[MXD]

MTL does not produce much offense at all with Guhle on the ice. (2.33 goals/60, 2.31 xgoals/60)

The stat makes sense, but the context behind it is that he plays against incredibly tough competition, generally without offensive zone usage.

Hence my point about the model flaw (or the model limits)
Yes, you're supposed to "modify" the 1% with whatever else info comes afterwards. But 1% as a raw number for Kaiden Guhle's offensive "results" (so to speak) absolutely does not align with what he is as a player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That’s not exactly what you said. You called Suzuki a 2C

That's not what I said, I said "Suzuki is great but is probably better off as a 2C on a contender"

Suzuki is great but is probably better off as a 2C on a contender

Aside from the fact that he did in fact beat both of Crosby and Malkin at 19/20 years old in a best of 7 series tells you everything you need to know right now.

Hockey is a team sport. Carry Price's .947 save percentage was more responsible for that win than Suzuki's 2 points lol

Lol I know, right?

I was about to jump on the "Let's trash talk that dude" train myself but than I went to your original take and it seemed pretty reasonnable

I guess some of us are feeling à bit unhinged today

I disagree however with your ROR/Suzuki take

Suzuki didn't had the chance to shine yet since he's playing on what can only be called a "Garbage team" but he'll be recognize sooner than latter as a solid two ways players

There's at least one Selke in Suzuki's future

I think Suzuki can be a better offensive player than ROR was, but I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively, though he's become very good there as well.

 

[Baksfamous112]

That's not what I said, I said "Suzuki is great but is probably better off as a 2C on a contender"

Isn’t that the same thing? Anyway, moot point. He was our #1C when we went to the finals.

Hockey is a team sport. Carry Price's .947 save percentage was more responsible for that win than Suzuki's 2 points lol

Doesn’t change the facts now, does it? He still finished with 7 points in 10 games in those playoffs

 

[DaPhazz]

Everytime Kent does something good, there's always a bitter taste of what could it'd been if it wasn't for the Bergevin era.

Man do I not miss him.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Isn’t that the same thing? Anyway, moot point. He was our #1C when we went to the finals.

Yeah, he was great in that run, but Price was by far the biggest reason they got that far. Then they got thoroughly outclassed in the finals.

Doesn’t change the facts now, does it? He still finished with 7 points in 10 games in those playoffs

Huh? the fact that the Canadiens beat the Pens does not mean Suzuki beat Crosby lol

 

[bud12]

Suzuki is a fine 1c. The guy is a gamer and dynamite in playoff. A two way player who can win a cup without a doubt. Now we can go back to Guhle contract

 

[dgibb10]

Hence my point about the model flaw (or the model limits)
Yes, you're supposed to "modify" the 1% with whatever else info comes afterwards. But 1% as a raw number for Kaiden Guhle's offensive "results" (so to speak) absolutely does not align with what he is as a player.

I wouldn't say it's too much of a flaw when they have the context of QoC included. It only makes a major difference to those who are unable to understand what's going on and look beyond the overall war%.

Guhle's card imo is pretty indicative of what he is. Good defensively, hasn't quite figured it out on the PK yet (although MTLs PK is atrocious across the board), and currently isn't producing offense at all when on the ice.

However, this comes with the context that he's 22 playing a ridiculously tough role, so overall he's quite impressive.


The same thing happens with shooting%s.
Obviously if you shoot at 27%, you are providing a lot of value in doing that so your war will be very high for that year (as WAR is a results based stat).
However, if you can read the context and see a guys finishing%ile jumped up to 100% in 1 year specifically, you'd be able to see that it's likely not sustainable.

Important to understand what goes into the stats to paint the picture rather than just treating the end result like gospel.

Each of the stats is very good at highlighting what it is trying to say (especially the microstats which dig deeper into much smaller areas like puck battles, entries, exits, passing, puck retrievals, etc)

 

[Baksfamous112]

Yeah, he was great in that run, but Price was by far the biggest reason they got that far. Then they got thoroughly outclassed in the finals.

Huh? the fact that the Canadiens beat the Pens does not mean Suzuki beat Crosby lol

Yes, he was by far our best forward.

What? What does it mean then? If not one team beating the other, how can you quantify who was better?

Suzuki is a fine 1c. The guy is a gamer and dynamite in playoff. A two way player who can win a cup without a doubt. Now we can go back to Guhle contract

Yes, we can.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

What? What does it mean then? If not one team beating the other, how can you quantify who was better?

A team beating another team doesn't mean a player is better than another player. This isn't complicated.

Unless you think Sam Bennett is better than Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Results of the poll are 15-2 right now, with the only 2 votes coming from Habs fans.

 

[MXD]

I wouldn't say it's too much of a flaw when they have the context of QoC included. It only makes a major difference to those who are unable to understand what's going on and look beyond the overall war%.

Guhle's card imo is pretty indicative of what he is. Good defensively, hasn't quite figured it out on the PK yet (although MTLs PK is atrocious across the board), and currently isn't producing offense at all when on the ice.

However, this comes with the context that he's 22 playing a ridiculously tough role, so overall he's quite impressive.


The same thing happens with shooting%s.
Obviously if you shoot at 27%, you are providing a lot of value in doing that so your war will be very high for that year (as WAR is a results based stat).
However, if you can read the context and see a guys finishing%ile jumped up to 100% in 1 year specifically, you'd be able to see that it's likely not sustainable.

Important to understand what goes into the stats to paint the picture rather than just treating the end result like gospel.

Each of the stats is very good at highlighting what it is trying to say (especially the microstats which dig deeper into much smaller areas like puck battles, entries, exits, passing, puck retrievals, etc)

Fair enough. I mean, we're basically of the same opinion, you just assume that other people are smarter, or at least more knowledgeable about this, than I think they are

 

[Bouboumaster]

I think Suzuki can be a better offensive player than ROR was, but I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively, though he's become very good there as well.

IMO he's for sure, 100%, be better offensively, especially if Slaf continue to grow, as a players

Maybe you're right, but at the end of the Day, when it's all done, I think that Suzuki will be recognize as the better players between those two

 

[Baksfamous112]

A team beating another team doesn't mean a player is better than another player. This isn't complicated.

Unless you think Sam Bennett is better than Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Results of the poll are 15-2 right now, with the only 2 votes coming from Habs fans.

Pretty cool of you to leave out Barkov. In a game where the only thing that matters is wins then I would argue that the C who was playing as a 1C against Pittsburgh got the better of them both. I’ll leave it at that.

Yeah these guys are so elite that they can’t even carry their team into a playoff spot anymore BUT they’re still the elite of the elite duos of the league, correct?

 

[dgibb10]

Fair enough. I mean, we're basically of the same opinion, you just assume that other people are smarter, or at least more knowledgeable about this, than I think they are

Moreso I'd rather have all the individual parts, rather than a less accurate version where you are trying to quantify the impact of zone starts and competition and linemates and every other small factor for an overall picture that's easier to read.

This provides 2 things. Results, and context. It's up to the viewer to determine the end picture, by looking at linemates, the QoC, how they're utilized, any luck/unsustainable numbers that may be skewing the results 1 way or another, etc

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Pretty cool of you to leave out Barkov. In a game where the only thing that matters is wins then I would argue that the C who was playing as a 1C against Pittsburgh got the better of them both. I’ll leave it at that.

Yeah these guys are so elite that they can’t even carry their team into a playoff spot anymore BUT they’re still the elite of the elite duos of the league, correct?

I'm done arguing with you, the results of the poll speak for themselves.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I swear dgibb, whiskey and xirik are in every habs thread

I could honestly care less about the devils
Why do they care about the habs so much?

 

[Ezpz]

A team beating another team doesn't mean a player is better than another player. This isn't complicated.

Unless you think Sam Bennett is better than Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Results of the poll are 15-2 right now, with the only 2 votes coming from Habs fans.

Because your poll doesn't clearly state current Malkin/Crosby. Most people vote without reading OP. Malkin is washed. It's basically Crosby vs two Nick Suzukis. Which in his prime I would take one Crosby over any current player and definitely over two Nick's as it's basically Crosby vs bergeron/krejci. Boston would have won many cups with that hypothetical swap.

Nowadays the gap between Nick Suzuki and Crosby is narrower. Suzuki had better defensive metrics last season while Crosby was much better offensively.

There's a decent argument NIck Suzuki was around the tenth best center in the league last year, as several guys ahead of him in scoring are worse defensively or don't play center full time, or have padded stats playing on stacked teams; while Malkin is clearly not top 30 anymore. Is a top 5 c and a 40 or so C better than two top 10s?

Of course you could also argue many guys missed time and may have had better seasons than Nick according to pace like scheifele, eichel, Hughes, or larkin but the furthest you can really push him down is 15th or so. Nick was the league leader in defensive metrics and assumed selke nominee until the last month of the season.

Also keep in mind Crosby doesn't have guentzel anymore while Nick has two wingers who should be much better in Caufield and Slafkovsky next season.

I would guess most people just haven't realized how much of a shell Malkin is now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Because your poll doesn't clearly state current Malkin/Crosby. Most people vote without reading OP. Malkin is washed. It's basically Crosby vs two Nick Suzukis. Which in his prime I would take one Crosby over any current player and definitely over two Nick's as it's basically Crosby vs bergeron/krejci. Boston would have won many cups with that hypothetical swap.

Nowadays the gap between Nick Suzuki and Crosby is narrower. Suzuki had better defensive metrics last season while Crosby was much better offensively.

There's a decent argument NIck Suzuki was around the tenth best center in the league last year, as several guys ahead of him in scoring are worse defensively or don't play center full time, or have padded stats playing on stacked teams; while Malkin is clearly not top 30 anymore. Is a top 5 c and a 40 or so C better than two top 10s?

Of course you could also argue many guys missed time and may have had better seasons than Nick according to pace like scheifele, eichel, Hughes, or larkin but the furthest you can really push him down is 15th or so. Nick was the league leader in defensive metrics and assumed selke nominee until the last month of the season.

Also keep in mind Crosby doesn't have guentzel anymore while Nick has two wingers who should be much better in Caufield and Slafkovsky next season.

I would guess most people just haven't realized how much of a shell Malkin is now.

What makes Malkin a shell? He significantly out-produced Suzuki at 5v5 with worse linemates while posting great possession numbers.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I swear dgibb, whiskey and xirik are in every habs thread

I could honestly care less about the devils
Why do they care about the habs so much?

dgibb is usually has pretty good takes though. I don't always agree with him but in general he has a good idea of what he's talking about and is able to back his view with clear examples and metrics.

I think the other two just like to troll.

Because your poll doesn't clearly state current Malkin/Crosby. Most people vote without reading OP. Malkin is washed. It's basically Crosby vs two Nick Suzukis. Which in his prime I would take one Crosby over any current player and definitely over two Nick's as it's basically Crosby vs bergeron/krejci. Boston would have won many cups with that hypothetical swap.

Nowadays the gap between Nick Suzuki and Crosby is narrower. Suzuki had better defensive metrics last season while Crosby was much better offensively.

There's a decent argument NIck Suzuki was around the tenth best center in the league last year, as several guys ahead of him in scoring are worse defensively or don't play center full time, or have padded stats playing on stacked teams; while Malkin is clearly not top 30 anymore. Is a top 5 c and a 40 or so C better than two top 10s?

Of course you could also argue many guys missed time and may have had better seasons than Nick according to pace like scheifele, eichel, Hughes, or larkin but the furthest you can really push him down is 15th or so. Nick was the league leader in defensive metrics and assumed selke nominee until the last month of the season.

Also keep in mind Crosby doesn't have guentzel anymore while Nick has two wingers who should be much better in Caufield and Slafkovsky next season.

I would guess most people just haven't realized how much of a shell Malkin is now.

It's not really hard to see when you have the time to watch the games (live). He listed a bunch of players (Ziba, Trocheck, Hertl, Malkin, Stamkos and to some extend Crosby) that have shown clear signs of slowing down as still being elite. I would argue almost half of his original C list can't even carry a line anymore but you wouldn't know that unless you get to watch these guys live at least a couple of times a year (which I'm fortunate to be able to).

Most people on hfbords do a quick DB search and make their minds using that and name recognition without even knowing what they're talking about.

 

[dgibb10]

dgibb is usually has pretty good takes though. I don't always agree with him but in general he has a good idea of what he's talking about and is able to back his view with clear examples and metrics.

I think the other two just like to troll.

It's not really hard to see when you have the time to watch the games (live). He listed a bunch of players (Ziba, Trocheck, Hertl, Malkin, Stamkos and to some extend Crosby) that have shown clear signs of slowing down as still being elite. I would argue almost half of his original C list can't even carry a line anymore but you wouldn't know that unless you get to watch these guys live at least a couple of times a year (which I'm fortunate to be able to).

Most people on hfbords do a quick DB search and make their minds using that and name recognition without even knowing what they're talking about.

Cheers.

Maybe I'm a bit of a numbers guy, but I like to think at least I'm pretty consistent with what I like and don't like in players.

2 Nick Suzukis would probably be a top 4-10 C core in hockey, dependng on just how high you view the impact of a Mackinnon or Matthews, and some debates about other cores.

(McDrai, Hughes-Hischier, Miller-Pettersson, Mackinnon-Middlestadt, Matthews-Tavares)

Maybes: Point-Cirelli, Kopitar-Byfield (if Byfield has the big breakout I expect and Kopitar doesn't fall off), Crosby-Malkin (if they don't decline, but age hits aggressively once it starts), Hintz-Wyatt (again projecting another big breakout),

He's somewhere in the 13-19 range for Cs, lots of guys you can argue about there.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

2 Nick Suzukis would probably be a top 4-10 C core in hockey, dependng on just how high you view the impact of a Mackinnon or Matthews, and some debates about other cores.

I'd probably have them in the 8-12 range, hard to bet against Barkov - Bennett and Crosby - Malkin, in addition to the pairs you mentioned. Eichel - Hertl could be really strong too.

 

[yianik]

Everytime Kent does something good, there's always a bitter taste of what could it'd been if it wasn't for the Bergevin era.

Man do I not miss him.

Look at it this way, no Hughes Era without the Bergevin Era.

 

[dgibb10]

I'd probably have them in the 8-12 range, hard to bet against Barkov - Bennett and Crosby - Malkin, in addition to the pairs you mentioned. Eichel - Hertl could be really strong too.

I love Crosby and Malkin even strength, which is normally my big thing.

But when it comes to guys who are the engines of the PP, I have to give a hit to the 2 of them for just how ineffective they were leading that PP last year.

If they didn't have PP points because they didn't have opportunity, that's one thing. But something like 600 minutes between them on the PP with very very little to show for it

Also I'm never confident expecting 38 year olds to keep up their previous level of play

 

[Habs 4 Life]

Everytime Kent does something good, there's always a bitter taste of what could it'd been if it wasn't for the Bergevin era.

Man do I not miss him.