Confirmed Signing with Link: [MTL] D Kaiden Guhle signs extension with the Canadiens (6 years, $5.55M AAV; begins 2025-26)

[Bizz]

I know it's lolJFresh, but signing a player with a 13% WAR to a 6x5.55M is pretty wild.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818644562358747561

 

[Baksfamous112]

Yes, at 37 and 38. Crosby is still an elite center, miles ahead of Suzuki, and Malkin is still very good as well.

Crosby showed signs of slowing down last season. I don’t think he’s “miles ahead” of Suzuki right now and the gap will definitely close again this year.

Malkin is washed up. He’s done. I’m not even sure what you’re talking about here.

 

[Heffyhoof]

...That doesn't make any sense lol.

Montreal has certain posters that defend to death every Quebec born player and will even slander up and coming players to boost the player born in the right province. Even to the point of mocking this signing.

Edit: I mean, you should know, that's why responded to me.

 

[MXD]

Montreal has certain posters that defend to death every Quebec born player and will even slander up and coming players to boost the player born in the right province. Even to the point of mocking this signing.

Edit: I mean, you should know, that's why responded to me.

And Montreal has certain posters that defend to death every non-Quebec player and will even slander up and coming Quebec players to boost the player not born in the wrong province.

Not to mention, it's Mike Matheson.

I very obviously disagree with @Jeune Poulet 's take by the way.

I know it's lolJFresh, but signing a player with a 13% WAR to a 6x5.55M is pretty wild.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818644562358747561

- His 1% EV Offense looks like a model flaw more than any reality-based number.
- Guhle spent way too much time his wrong side to accomodate Mike Matheson.

 

[Gaud]

5.5M for 6 years agreeing to that he clearly doesnt see himself as a future #1 or #2

I mean the thought had occured to me, but i think there are factors like injuries that come into play. Plus Hughes is a king in terms of negociations - i am sure he had comparatives and the agreement ended up being a balance of years vs money (im sure mtl wanted more term, Guhle more money).

I also dont really see Guhle as a #1 either - i think he is a #2 or 3. The pairing will depend on who is #1 and how well he does with him - if its a Hutson and Guhle can cover the risk defensively, then he will be top pairing. If not, he may be 2nd pairing.

 

[Gaud]

Rather funny to see so many here tripping over themselves to talk about what a good deal this is. It may well be in time. Right now, it’s a projection that he will need to grow into. Has the potential to be a good deal for Montreal if he develops into what some people think he might (especially with a rising cap), but he’s gotta do it first before this can proclaimed as a win.

As is the usual case with young players in similar positions, in the immediate future he is overpaid.

I mean this is not an unfair take - how many players are "retained" by being offered contracts based on their projections rather than what they've accomplished? It is defnitely a good trend.

However, I dont know if anyone disputes that Guhle is more likely to be a top 4 than a 3rd pairing D. I also argue that the circumstances - such as the rebuild and the opportunities it brings to players that wouldn't be top 3 D at his age on playoff teams - and his response to them make him much closer to the expectations of the contract he signed than some would think.

That being said, i dont think he is at his prime. With the habs' current state of possibly fighting for a playoff spot and having the cap, i think Guhle will make this contract seem more than fair by the end of the season, and possibly a steal at the end of the next, when the habs start realistically being part of the playoff race.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Yes, at 37 and 38. Crosby is still an elite center, miles ahead of Suzuki, and Malkin is still very good as well.

why would our rebuilding team prefer them over Suzuki whos a decade younger... obviously in their prime they were miles better but today and moving forward we obviously take our captain he already had more points then Malkin last year while playing the tougher minutes Crosby and Malkin have what 2/3 years left? All due respect to them they had a great career but no today we dont take them over Suzuki who easily has another 10 years of hockey and still hasnt missed an NHL game since entering the league

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Crosby showed signs of slowing down last season. I don’t think he’s “miles ahead” of Suzuki right now and the gap will definitely close again this year.

He had 42 goals and 94 points last year. 71 ES points vs Suzuki's 46.

He's way ahead of Suzuki and will continue to be until he actually shows signs of slowing down.

Malkin is washed up. He’s done. I’m not even sure what you’re talking about here.

Malkin outscored Suzuki at even strength this year despite playing 124 less ES minutes with inferior linemates lol. So washed up.

why would our rebuilding team prefer them over Suzuki whos a decade younger... obviously in their prime they were miles better but today and moving forward we obviously take our captain he already had more points then Malkin last year while playing the tougher minutes Crosby and Malkin have what 2/3 years left? All due respect to them they had a great career but no today we dont take them over Suzuki who easily has another 10 years of hockey and still hasnt missed an NHL game since entering the league

That wasn't the context, it was about who you would take in a playoff matchup today, not for the next 10 years.

I would take Crosby + Malkin in a best of 7 over two Nick Suzukis, and it's not even close.

 

[Baksfamous112]

He had 42 goals and 94 points last year. 71 ES points vs Suzuki's 46.

He's way ahead of Suzuki and will continue to be until he actually shows signs of slowing down.


Malkin outscored Suzuki at even strength this year despite playing 124 less ES minutes with inferior linemates lol. So washed up.


That wasn't the context, it was about who you would take in a playoff matchup today, not for the next 10 years.

I would take Crosby + Malkin in a best of 7 over two Nick Suzukis, and it's not even close.

Ah yes the good old stats watcher. I’m sorry to break it to you but Malkin is completely washed up. I suggest you watch more hockey and less hockeydb next year.

While we’re at it, I’m going to break some more news to you as well; Ovechkin is also completely washed up.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

I would take Crosby + Malkin in a best of 7 over two Nick Suzukis, and it's not even close.

oh my apologies then Crosby yes i easily take him over Suzuki but not today's Malkin

 

[waitin425]

Why has the Guhle thread turned into a Suzuki vs the world thread?

Get it back on track people!

BTW - Suzuki getting criminally underrated by the usual posters.

 

[bert]

It's a good deal for a good young player. Congrats to MTL fans.

Yeah solid deal for sure. Would never see a Montreal fan post something like this about a sens player. But some fan bases just can't evaluate players on other teams that they dislike.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Montreal has certain posters that defend to death every Quebec born player and will even slander up and coming players to boost the player born in the right province. Even to the point of mocking this signing.

Edit: I mean, you should know, that's why responded to me.

Lol

Never change, ROC
Never change

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

oh my apologies then Crosby yes i easily take him over Suzuki but not today's Malkin

Yeah, but the question is Crosby + Malkin as a center pair vs two Suzukis.

 

[bert]

Why not 8 years?????

Because it would have cost more in AAV I'd imagine.

Bridge deals backfire on teams more often than long term extensions for their young core players coming off of ELCs do. This should be another in a long line of these type of contracts that age well especially with the expected big cap rise. Smart GMs get out ahead of this and lock their key players up early.

Unless you're Pierre Dorion and you do it for every single player. While it's gonna look good for Sanderson, Tkachuk and Stutzle. The Norris and White contracts are/were terrible. Need a good talent evaluater he clearly was not one. It can work both ways.

 

[CGG]

To be fair, Tavares was injured in game 1 and Suzuki wasn't the team #1 C, it was Danault.

Danault put up 24 points that year (56 game season). Suzuki had 41. But in the playoffs Danault racked up.... 4 points compared to Suzuki's 16. After the season they signed Suzuki to an 8 year deal and let Danault walk via UFA. I wonder who the # 1 C was. Tough call.

I don't see Suzuki as having ROR's upside. He could get there offensively, but he doesn't have that all around game.

...

There's more to being a top center than scoring points, and a lot of those guys you reference were scoring at higher levels in a lower scoring era. And Suzuki is so far from Eichel it's laughable.

Yeah, I mean Eichel's career high is 82 points whereas Suzuki has only ever reached 77. Those 5 points are a gigantic, insurmountable chasm to overcome for a 25-year old, no way Suzuki could ever reach those numbers even if he doesn't one day play for a bottom-5 team with a terrible power play and two wingers who are (1) 19 years old and (2) recovering from shoulder surgery shooting 7% below his career shooting percentage numbers.

ROR's career high, fittingly, is 77 points. Suzuki has already matched him offensively. To follow the St Louis model, Montreal just needs a 2nd line center that can keep up with Brayden Schenn and the 54 points he got in the Blues' cup winning year.

 

[Mrb1p]

Are you comparing him to a 45 YO Andrei Markov?

I like Guhle, but the other guys you're talking about were somewhere between elite #1's (Weber, Subban, Markov) and lower tier #'1's (Petry).

He's already a top pair D. He's better defensively than Petry and Markov already, he just needs to close the gap offensively a little bit. He carried Mathesons ass last year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Ah yes the good old stats watcher. I’m sorry to break it to you but Malkin is completely washed up. I suggest you watch more hockey and less hockeydb next year.

He's washed up but was still much more productive than Suzuki at 5v5 while having a better goal differential when he's on the ice and putting up excellent possession numbers. While playing with Reilly Smith and Rickard Rakell.

If we were starting a best of 7 series today I would take Malkin over Suzuki.

I started a poll to settle it outside of this thread

 

[Mrb1p]

Why has the Guhle thread turned into a Suzuki vs the world thread?

Get it back on track people!

BTW - Suzuki getting criminally underrated by the usual posters.

Because the whiskey dude is as annoying as our whiskey dude.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yeah, I mean Eichel's career high is 82 points whereas Suzuki has only ever reached 77. Those 5 points are a gigantic, insurmountable chasm to overcome for a 25-year old, no way Suzuki could ever reach those numbers even if he doesn't one day play for a bottom-5 team with a terrible power play and two wingers who are (1) 19 years old and (2) recovering from shoulder surgery shooting 7% below his career shooting percentage numbers.

Suzuki shot at 18% this year lol

He's nowhere near Eichel, you can stat watch all you want. Maybe re-watch Vegas's cup run where Eichel completely dominated all over the ice.



They aren't remotely comparable.

ROR's career high, fittingly, is 77 points. Suzuki has already matched him offensively.

And he's nowhere near ROR defensively. This past season was the first year where the Habs allowed less goals/60 with Suzuki on the ice (and only barely).

To follow the St Louis model, Montreal just needs a 2nd line center that can keep up with Brayden Schenn and the 54 points he got in the Blues' cup winning year.

Sure, that's why I said it's doable. But it's clearly the exception to the rule, seeing as how it happened 1 time in 20 years.

Why has the Guhle thread turned into a Suzuki vs the world thread?

Get it back on track people!

BTW - Suzuki getting criminally underrated by the usual posters.

Because I congratulated the Habs on this signing and said they have a great young core that probably needs to improve at center to win a cup. And then half a dozen habs fans attacked me.

 

[dgibb10]

I know it's lolJFresh, but signing a player with a 13% WAR to a 6x5.55M is pretty wild.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1818644562358747561

The QoC he plays is ridiculous for a 22 year old and the numbers are actually pretty promising there defensively.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

He's already a top pair D. He's better defensively than Petry and Markov already, he just needs to close the gap offensively a little bit. He carried Mathesons ass last year.

I think that your memory is "fading" if you think that Guhle is better defensively than Markov was. I like Guhle's game, and think this is a fine contract. To compare him favorably to the d-men you did is absolutely ludicrous.

 

[dgibb10]

And Montreal has certain posters that defend to death every non-Quebec player and will even slander up and coming Quebec players to boost the player not born in the wrong province.

Not to mention, it's Mike Matheson.

I very obviously disagree with @Jeune Poulet 's take by the way.


- His 1% EV Offense looks like a model flaw more than any reality-based number.
- Guhle spent way too much time his wrong side to accomodate Mike Matheson.

MTL does not produce much offense at all with Guhle on the ice. (2.33 goals/60, 2.31 xgoals/60)

The stat makes sense, but the context behind it is that he plays against incredibly tough competition, generally without offensive zone usage.

 

[waitin425]

Because I congratulated the Habs on this signing and said they have a great young core that probably needs to improve at center to win a cup. And then half a dozen habs fans attacked me.

You are kind of right and wrong. Yes....we need to improve at centre. But, we can also do that in house with Suzuki continuing to improve, and Dach returning from injury. Many had Dach as equal to Suzuki 16 months ago. Kind of like you Suzuki + Suzuki analogy.

We are happy right now with our Centre depth and see potential for Suzuki to get even better for a number of reasons.....Slaf gets better. Caufield had a horrible shooting percentage. Dach creates a two line team and takes some pressure away from Suzuki.

Do our centres need to be better? Yes. Can it be from within? Yes.

Back to Guhle.....great deal.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Suzuki shot at 18% this year lol

He's nowhere near Eichel, you can stat watch all you want. Maybe re-watch Vegas's cup run where Eichel completely dominated all over the ice.



They aren't remotely comparable.

And he's nowhere near ROR defensively. This past season was the first year where the Habs allowed less goals/60 with Suzuki on the ice (and only barely).

Sure, that's why I said it's doable. But it's clearly the exception to the rule, seeing as how it happened 1 time in 20 years.


Because I congratulated the Habs on this signing and said they have a great young core that probably needs to improve at center to win a cup. And then half a dozen habs fans attacked me.

That’s not exactly what you said. You called Suzuki a 2C

He's washed up but was still much more productive than Suzuki at 5v5 while having a better goal differential when he's on the ice and putting up excellent possession numbers. While playing with Reilly Smith and Rickard Rakell.

If we were starting a best of 7 series today I would take Malkin over Suzuki.

I started a poll to settle it outside of this thread

Aside from the fact that he did in fact beat both of Crosby and Malkin at 19/20 years old in a best of 7 series tells you everything you need to know right now.