Confirmed Trade: [MTL/CBJ] Patrik Laine, '26 2nd for Jordan Harris

[Schennanigans]

Good move by the habs. Can’t lose here.

 

[Viqsi]

Yeah... Key word "every". The vitriol and obnoxiousness meeting most proposals and opinions offered by Habs fans around here has gotten to ridiculous proportions.

As it turns out, Harris does have value :

It's easy to dismiss a guy when he's the Designated Expendable in eleventy billion different variants of the same rejected proposals.

For my part I didn't think he'd fit here because we had a similar blueline logjam. Then Waddell came in and dumped half of our blueline depth and replaced it by contracting out with a necromancer to bring back JMFJ. Against that, Harris suddenly starts to look pretty damn good.

 

[GordonGraham]

Highest paid player on the team 5 games without a goal and the press and fans will be all over him

 

[Viqsi]

Operating with the same available information, assessments were offered that you, among others, discounted entirely.

Because plenty were likely wrong based on that information. Assumptions were being made that were not in evidence. And we didn't get the evidence that Waddell's perspective was different until yesterday.

Blue Jackets aren't "special".

No, but folks seem to assume we are - special w/r/t getting badly ripped off in every trade, anyways. The track record is still overwhelmingly in our favor.

Waddell is a long time GM. There was a visible precedent at play that was likely to (& clearly did) factor into any trade made.

Not accounting sufficiently for the fact that there's a different guy at the helm was undoubtedly the biggest assessment error here. That said, it's become so commonplace for folks to dismiss every Jackets asset as borderline valueless because "lol Columbus" that separating the signal from the noise when a new guy comes in is damnably difficult.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Highest paid player on the team 5 games without a goal and the press and fans will be all over him

Nope

He didn’t sign that contract in Montreal and nothing of value was given up for him

 

[pth2]

It's easy to dismiss a guy when he's the Designated Expendable in eleventy billion different variants of the same rejected proposals.

It's easy but it's also foolish to rate a player based on how often he's in trade proposals from one of the biggest fanbases.

 

[Miller Time]

It's easy to dismiss a guy when he's the Designated Expendable in eleventy billion different variants of the same rejected proposals.

That's why forming an opinion without grounding it well is a fools errand...

Bad takes are built off of such poor grounding.

For my part I didn't think he'd fit here because we had a similar blueline logjam. Then Waddell came in and dumped half of our blueline depth and replaced it by contracting out with a necromancer to bring back JMFJ. Against that, Harris suddenly starts to look pretty damn good.

Fair. The thing about dmen like Harris is that they "fit" everywhere... That same versatility absent any definitive physical or technical strength is also why they are often dismissed too readily by fans and weak pro hockey ops people alike.

You might find yourself liking Harris a lot before it's all said and done. His best is still a few years away, but I bet his year over year improvement will really start taking off this year or next

 

[Viqsi]

It's easy but it's also foolish to rate a player based on how often he's in trade proposals from one of the biggest fanbases.

True. From the Jackets perspective, again, he didn't have much value to us until about a month ago, after Waddell got finished giving away all the depth guys that were otherwise in the way.

 

[bert]

There's zero pressure in Montreal at least for another 2 years. Fans understand they are in the rebuild and just enjoying watching the player development. This is a perfect environment for Laine. He doesn't have to do anything. Like Gallagher and Josh Anderson, he can massively under-perform and it doesn't matter.

Habs will likely rehabilitate Laine then trade him at a TDL at 50% cap for a massive return.

Lots of wishful thinking in 2 paragraphs. I can't imagine you truly believe the first one. Montreal media is wild and the fanbase has very little self control. They believe just about anything, look no further than recently going after Chabots wife online because Shawn Simpson made a sarcastic joke about Montreal being on his 10 team no trade list.

There's gonna be pressure. Even if there shouldn't be. I agree with you they're 2 years away but it's naive to think there won't be any.

That being said I love the move given there true situation. It's very smart.

 

[Danarqhy]

BJ's absolutely FLEECED holy!!

Turning gold into turdnuggets over there in C'lumbus.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Montreal going to win the cup before Toronto does?

Yup, Leafs should have chosen Laine first over all over Matthews, Habs are all set now.

 

[Viqsi]

Lots of wishful thinking in 2 paragraphs. I can't imagine you truly believe the first one. Montreal media is wild and the fanbase has very little self control. They believe just about anything, look no further than recently going after Chabots wife online because Shawn Simpson made a sarcastic joke about Montreal being on his 10 team no trade list.

There's gonna be pressure. Even if there shouldn't be. I agree with you they're 2 years away but it's naive to think there won't be any.

I'm legit beginning to wonder to what degree that's exceptional as compared to any other fanbase when scaled up to that size. At the very least I can't remember the last time someone was exorcated there for not speaking French outside of shitposting speculation here.

 

[Habssince89]

What are you trying to say here? The Habs were the only team to call and got this awesome steal?

No one wanted Laine for a reason

No one could fit Laine into their plans. The habs had the space to take on the risk. To say he stinks simply isn't true.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

What would you call giving away 17.5M in cap space and getting basically a 3rd round pick in value back? I'd want a 1st for that kind of cap space. Heck, you got a 1st for taking 6.3M back. This is 3 times that.

You make it sound like the Habs flat out added 17.5M of dead cap. But Laine's value is not zero dollars. Not even close.

If Laine had been a free agent this summer, He would have easily had many bidders for his service at 4.7M. You should know. Your Flames just gave that turd Mantha $3.5M a year. And he's older than Laine with a much less impressive resume. I'm not judging BTW. That's the asking price for big forwards with some offensive skills

So anyway, back to Laine:

Current salary 8.7M - 4.7M value = 4M overpayment.
Then you factor in that we got rid of that turd Harris and his 1.4M one-way contract.

When all that is considered, we took maybe a 2.6M hit on our cap space to get a 2nd rounder from a historically craptacular team that just hired the village idiot as its GM.

I'm OK with that.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Highest paid player on the team 5 games without a goal and the press and fans will be all over him

5 games... Its Montréal... if he don't get hot in pre-season, its over

 

[Miller Time]

Because plenty were likely wrong based on that information. Assumptions were being made that were not in evidence. And we didn't get the evidence that Waddell's perspective was different until yesterday.

Being right or wrong is a different thing than making good or bad assessments.

Awareness of available precedents, and considering the broad & precise context make for better assessments.... Discounting precedent and exagerating ones uniqueness, make for limited/worse assessments.

No, but folks seem to assume we are - special w/r/t getting badly ripped off in every trade, anyways. The track record is still overwhelmingly in our favor.

You keep posting that in various threads... Very odd victim narrative that seems to cloud your reading of what's being said.

Not accounting sufficiently for the fact that there's a different guy at the helm was undoubtedly the biggest assessment error here. That said, it's become so commonplace for folks to dismiss every Jackets asset as borderline valueless because "lol Columbus" that separating the signal from the noise when a new guy comes in is damnably difficult.

Davidson has a long track record.

Again, I think you overstate the blue jackets factor and underestimated the importance of the management team... Very few organizations have such deeply entrenched identities as to be worth factoring in. The "new guy" was brought in by an "old guy" with a career tracking well within relatively predictable patterns (including hiring Waddell).

 

[T REX]

Yes. Laine is an $8.7M one dimensional player who has personal issues and has forced his way out of 2 organizations.

Yup. This could be a huge win for the habs or not. IMHO, they didn't give up much outside of taking on his salary.

Cbus couldn't get rid of him fast enough.

Laine is probably done in the NHL. How many of these 3rd time reclamation projects work out?

0%...he'll be back in his home country stealing money from that franchise next.

 

[Viqsi]

Being right or wrong is a different thing than making good or bad assessments.

Awareness of available precedents, and considering the broad & precise context make for better assessments.... Discounting precedent and exagerating ones uniqueness, make for limited/worse assessments.

Normally, but when the record is literally 9-0 in favor of "non-Jackets fans consistently underestimate Jackets trade results" going back well over a decade and across multiple GMs, it's difficult to exaggerate much. Seriously, the track record dates all the way back to the Rick Nash and Jeff Carter trades.

You keep posting that in various threads... Very odd victim narrative that seems to cloud your reading of what's being said.

Probably because it's been consistently true.

Davidson has a long track record.

Much of which was here, while those many trades that were wrongly predicted to all end exceptionally badly for the Blue Jackets were taking place.

Davidson is also minimally involved nowadays.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Anybody told Montreal that just because Patrick Laine has a name that sounds like he's French Canadian, he's not actually French Canadian...

This is just terrible... Another 50 point season with huge dissapointment incomming for Laine. Hopefully he can get traded at the deadline for some picks and prospects...

Man you need the guy to play with McDavid to get good or what like at least give us a chance with him Mulletman

 

[T REX]

Going to be lovely when Laine pots 100 points playing with Caufield and Slafkovsky next season.

I'll take that bet all day long. I get the under. I'll give you 5-1 odds too.

 

[Miller Time]

Normally, but when the record is literally 7-0 in favor of "non-Jackets fans consistently underestimate Jackets trade results" going back well over a decade and across multiple GMs, it's difficult to exaggerate much. Seriously, the track record dates all the way back to the Rick Nash and Jeff Carter trades.

this is what I mean by "narrow".

Probably because it's been consistently true.

I can see that you believe this to be true...

Much of which was here, while those many trades that were wrongly predicted to all end exceptionally badly for the Blue Jackets were taking place.

As much as I like this trade for the Habs, it very well could work out better for Columbus.

You assumed trade proposals that ended up being very close to the actual trade (if often even more favorable to the jackets) were yet further examples of other fans predicting doom and gloom for the jackets... That was a poor assessment, both of the market situation and of the well-established (ie precedent) tendencies of the NHL management establishment.

Davidson is also minimally involved nowadays.

Was he not president who hired Waddell before moving on to special advisor/governor role?

 

[Ossific]

My question is why is CBJ treating this like a cap dump, when they had cap space and aren't competing immediately. Probably would not have to haven given up a 2nd if trading at the deadline.

 

[HabsAddict]

Here is an article on Laine.

From his history, I'm not sold on Laine being better top 6 solution the someone like Mercer, but he's certainly capable of being one. There is an equal chance of him fizzling out as becoming a monster. If he sees himself as the "older brother of his team", a core of Demidov, Dach, Suzuki, CC, Slaf and Newhook, well, his potential contribution is deadly. He's a legit 50 goal player that is in his prime. And he's got lots of talent around him that will help him get there.

Or he's gone in two years...

Canadiens' Laine says he's been skating following off-season shoulder procedure

The newest member of the Montreal Canadiens is feeling ready both mentally and physically for the upcoming season. But during his first media availability since the trade, Laine told reporters that he's been cleared to skate after having an operation and his shot is feeling as powerful as ever

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Miller Time]

My question is why is CBJ treating this like a cap dump, when they had cap space and aren't competing immediately. Probably would not have to haven given up a 2nd if trading at the deadline.

Because they are an organization that knows they need to reset the internal culture if they want to succeed... One rich in young elite talent. Step one is buy-in, hard to do with an 8.7M core player publicly asking out...

After last year's pre-season debacle and disappointing season, it's understandable that the new GM wants to give his new HC as much of a clean slate as possible...

It's likely a lottery season anyways, so saving the owner 16-18M$ (not sure on timing of this year's 2M signing bonus) in the process also helps I'm sure.

I bet the Jackets will be aggressive in UFA/vet trade market next summer, this move paves the way for that

 

[SteelCityCannon]

My question is why is CBJ treating this like a cap dump, when they had cap space and aren't competing immediately. Probably would not have to haven given up a 2nd if trading at the deadline.

Went through that with PLD. Just can't have it again, especially with so many young players. Just gotta cut the cancer and move on.