Value of: Moving up at the draft from #26 with one of Lane Hutson or Owen Beck.

[Tanknation]

I didn't say he has very little value to the Habs. He just has very little value in trade, for other teams...relative to the way the the Habs likely value him. Nobody is going to pay anywhere near what Habs fans and management think he's potentially worth. If you can't handle a nuanced concept like that, that's your problem.

Please read better. Be less defensive about your prized little, far from flawless prospect.

Nice attempt at gaslighting, manipulating, and now spinning what you originally wrote. You stated, "But in terms of trade value...he's probably got very little. Because quite frankly...it's not even clear he's going to be an NHL player at all at this point. His 'outcomes' range is a hundred miles wide."

How can anyone interpret that other than you suggesting he has "very little value"? Even if you try to qualify it by mentioning other teams, it remains completely false.

It would be like me saying "Hughes, after being drafted, has very little value to other teams because he could be boom or bust." By your logic, I could make that claim about any very promising prospect. Clearly, you are a troll, so why even bother?

 

[samsagat]

Any forward making 1,23 pts/game in the NCAA at his D+1 would be highly considered.
About 90% of D+1 NCAA forwards having such stats are gonna make the NHL as pt producers.

But Hutson is a defenseman.

Even if he ends up a 3rd pair defenseman/PP specialist, he's gonna put some pts, that's for sure.

Just by his offensive talent alone, he'll make pts in the NHL.

Furthermore, Hughes, Gorton and MSL doesn't shy away from thinking outside the box.

So if switching Hutson to a LW/7th defenseman/PP specialist role is what it takes to not waste such an offensive talent (if he's not up to par as a regular NHL defenseman), I'm pretty sure they're gonna do it.

He'll play in the NHL and produce pts, mark my words..

 

[biturbo19]

Nice attempt at gaslighting, manipulating, and now spinning what you originally wrote. You stated, "But in terms of trade value...he's probably got very little. Because quite frankly...it's not even clear he's going to be an NHL player at all at this point. His 'outcomes' range is a hundred miles wide."

How can anyone interpret that other than you suggesting he has "very little value"? Even if you try to qualify it by mentioning other teams, it remains completely false.

It would be like me saying "Hughes, after being drafted, has very little value to other teams because he could be boom or bust." By your logic, I could make that claim about any very promising prospect. Clearly, you are a troll, so why even bother?

More reading. Less throwing around buzzwords like gaslighting and manipulating.

It's right there. Now, even highlighted in bold to help i guess. Trade value is different from value to a team.

A prospect like Hutson pragmatically has very little trade value. Certainly relative to what he's potentially worth to the Canadiens organization and their fans. No other team is going to take on the hundred miles wide projection range of Hutson at anything near what the Habs would want for it.


The Habs are invested in Hutson for a very late 2nd, practically 3rd round pick value. You could swap him for that now. But i'd consider that "very little value". Wouldn't you? He simply doesn't have the pedigree, or the narrowing of projection ranges to be worth any more than the gamble he was initially worth. And no, his "bone age" doesn't substantially move the needle on that.

It's paid off in collegiate success in spades...but the question with Hutson was never if he'd be a good amateur player. The question has always been...how will a tiny roving positionless player fare in making the jump to the NHL. Until he does that...he's as much a wildcard in "value" as the 62nd pick he was worth then. Doesn't make any sense for Montreal to trade him for "very little value" in the meantime. They're already in it.

If/when he establishes that he's truly got solid NHL Top-4 ability...his value will skyrocket to adjust accordingly...to the point that it flips upsidedown. Where it still doesn't make any sense for Montreal to trade him, because nobody will be able to offer what it'd take to pry that sort of player away from them.



All prospects have an element of this, but Hutson is such an oddball prospect that it's intensely magnified. It basically makes talking about him as a trade chip an utterly pointless discussion. Which we're now having argumentatively for some reason. When i think you'd generally agree...that it makes absolutely zero sense to trade Lane Hutson at this point. The reason being...the only thing you'd deal him for, is something that no team would ever even remotely consider giving up for him.





The more appropriate Canucks comparison here, would be Adam Gaudette. He was 5th round pick. He had a very strong collegiate trajectory. Culminating with a Hobey Baker win. But ultimately...he was still a prospect of very limited trade value, until he proved he could make that jump to the NHL and translate his play. Which he never really could.

 

[samsagat]

@biturbo19

Well, the problem with your take is it isn't definite enough.

What do you mean by "very little value"?

Because as far as I'm concerned, he certainly has more value than the end of 2nd Rd pick he took to acquire.

His accomplishments in the NCAA, in terms of pts for a D+1 defenseman, were historic (well, before Buium even more historic accomplishments).

So for me, even before proving anything in the NHL, his stock have risen significantly since his drafting.

How much?

I'm not saying he's worth a top 10 pick, not even a top 15.

But he's certainly worth at least a 20-25th pick as any good team will be ready to spend their low percentage pick for a not so far from the NHL, offensive talent, signed for cheap and under dollar control for a while...

 

[biturbo19]

@biturbo19

Well, the problem with your take is it isn't definite enough.

What do you mean by "very little value"?

Because as far as I'm concerned, he certainly has more value than the end of 2nd Rd pick he took to acquire.

His accomplishments in the NCAA, in terms of pts for a D+1 defenseman, were historic (well, before Buium even more historic accomplishments).

So for me, even before proving anything in the NHL, his stock have risen significantly since his drafting.

How much?

I'm not saying he's worth a top 10 pick, not even a top 15.

But he's certainly worth at least a 20-25th pick as any good team will be ready to spend their low percentage pick for a not so far from the NHL, offensive talent, signed for cheap and under dollar control for a while...

It may not be "precise" but it's definitive in a general sense. Prospects like that have very little trade value in any practical terms.

Trade value for completely unproven prospects isn't some defined metric that gets assigned a specific "pick value" + or - from where they're picked, that every team out there is constantly adjusting month by month like HFboards. Until that prospect actually starts to establish something different about their NHL projection, it's more or less whatever it initially was. Guys like Hutson...his range of outcomes is still the same, "he could be a superstar, or he could wash out of the league" as it was when the Habs gambled on him at the actual draft. Value stays more or less the same.


Which makes prospects like that a worthless proposition to discuss as "trade chips" especially in terms of trying to move around in the draft order.



Value to the team is what a prospect like Hutson might be worth to an invested team.

Value in trade is whatever another team would actually trade for the prospect.

The enormous gulf between the two makes them nearly "non-entities" in trade value. That leads to what i'd call, "very little value" in trade. Not suddenly being worth a Top-20 pick...for doing what was basically expected of him at the collegiate level, if he was to be tracking to maintain his upper tier projection. Prospects can certainly lose a lot of value by tracking poorly at lower levels. But Hutson more or less tracked...as hoped. Status quo for why he was drafted where he was as a guy who was already an offensive dynamo at that USNTDP/collegiate level in his draft year.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

Hutson will be a superstar for you, Habs fans. Such good puck skills and so agile/elusive. Creative, great passer. Size won't be an issue as long as he can handle decisions under pressure in the dzone

 

[Crazy8oooo]

What you say doesn't match what actually transpired.

There's a reason he stayed in the NCAA as long as he did.



One bad take doesn't justify another


Yes, the value you placed on him doesn't match your own assessment. Read your own post... It's all right there.

No strawman here, just a bad take.

Staying longer in the ncaa isnt = to not having high end skills. Not sure where you get such a weird take from. Just read his scouting reports if you don’t believe the high end vision and skating were already there.

One bad take doesn’t justify another? So me saying he won’t turn into an Adam Fox is a bad take? I’d say it’s reversed and I’m confident most (outside of Habs fans) would agree on him not becoming one of the top defenseman in the NHL.

Some of you are so sensitive with regards to others not agreeing that he’ll become one of the best defenseman in hockey. There’s a lot more to a defenseman than just points.

 

[samsagat]

There's a difference between "great hockey player" and good hockey player.

Turning into a Fox kinda defenseman isn't out of the question, even if not very likely.

But saying he has "no value" as of now is, for me, an as extreme point of view as considering him an absolute 100% superstar player.

Personally, I see him as a regular season good contributor, but comes the playoffs, chances are he won't be as effective.

But I think he's an NHL player, just by his offensive talent alone.

MSL is smart enough to use him in order to optimize his strength while keeping him away from exposing his weaknesses.

I suggested a LW/7th defenseman/PP specialist role?

I think when Habs will be in the playoffs, that might be the perfect role for him ..

 

[Crazy8oooo]

There's a difference between "great hockey player" and good hockey player.

Turning into a Fox kinda defenseman isn't out of the question, even if not very likely.

But saying he has "no value" as of now is, for me, an as extreme point of view as considering him an absolute 100% superstar player.

Personally, I see him as a regular season good contributor, but comes the playoffs, chances are he won't be as effective.

But I think he's an NHL player, just by his offensive talent alone.

MSL is smart enough to use him in order to optimize his strength while keeping him away from exposing his weaknesses.

I suggested a LW/7th defenseman/PP specialist role?

I think when Habs will be in the playoffs, that might be the perfect role for him ..

The problem with your assessment is that Hutson is a dynamic offensive defenseman with skating flaws. Those skating flaws are mentioned even by Montreal fans in previous threads. Those same flaws are one of the reasons he will not become a great defensive defenseman. It’s ok to say he can become a great offensive defenseman without suggesting he can become an Adam Fox. Very few players reach Fox’s all around level, hence him being one of the top defenseman in hockey. It just looks homerish when throwing out names of players as possible projections when he doesn’t even project to be a two way defenseman. Just because they’re both small isn’t a reason to justify it. Hutson’s quality is in his dynamic offensive skills and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just a bad take to bring Adam Fox up as a hypothetical.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is a case of going overboard to make HF fans happy that the Habs overreached on the trade value to move up.

Hutson and Beck have a good shot at being just as good as anybody in the 13-20 range. Adding the 1st is just way too much.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The problem with your assessment is that Hutson is a dynamic offensive defenseman with skating flaws. Those skating flaws are mentioned even by Montreal fans in previous threads. Those same flaws are one of the reasons he will not become a great defensive defenseman. It’s ok to say he can become a great offensive defenseman without suggesting he can become an Adam Fox. Very few players reach Fox’s all around level, hence him being one of the top defenseman in hockey. It just looks homerish when throwing out names of players as possible projections when he doesn’t even project to be a two way defenseman. Just because they’re both small isn’t a reason to justify it. Hutson’s quality is in his dynamic offensive skills and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just a bad take to bring Adam Fox up as a hypothetical.

Skating flaws? He's not overly fast in straight line speed but his edge work & cross overs are top notch. He's very deceptive with the puck and is always shifting his body weight to throw off any forecheck. Very good at this part and he showed flashes of it in the 2 NHL games he played so far. He certainly lived up to the hype in those 2 games.

His weight/strength is the flaw bud. Not his skating. He's going to need to be paired up with someone sound in terms of strength/size/mobility. Even then, he is susceptible to hits on the boards and I hope his shoulders are strong.

 

[samsagat]

The problem with your assessment is that Hutson is a dynamic offensive defenseman with skating flaws. Those skating flaws are mentioned even by Montreal fans in previous threads. Those same flaws are one of the reasons he will not become a great defensive defenseman. It’s ok to say he can become a great offensive defenseman without suggesting he can become an Adam Fox. Very few players reach Fox’s all around level, hence him being one of the top defenseman in hockey. It just looks homerish when throwing out names of players as possible projections when he doesn’t even project to be a two way defenseman. Just because they’re both small isn’t a reason to justify it. Hutson’s quality is in his dynamic offensive skills and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just a bad take to bring Adam Fox up as a hypothetical.

I don't know where my assessment is problematic because I agree with you.

Hutson's a great offensive talent but he has downsides, like his backward skating and pivot. Plus his overall size and strenght.

BUT, we've seen players getting betters with age. It's not impossible...

But at the end of the day, chances are he'll end up more like a PP specialist that have to be protected from top opposing team best players.

That doesn't means he has not gained value since his drafting though.

 

[Tanknation]

More reading. Less throwing around buzzwords like gaslighting and manipulating.

It's right there. Now, even highlighted in bold to help i guess. Trade value is different from value to a team.

A prospect like Hutson pragmatically has very little trade value. Certainly relative to what he's potentially worth to the Canadiens organization and their fans. No other team is going to take on the hundred miles wide projection range of Hutson at anything near what the Habs would want for it.


The Habs are invested in Hutson for a very late 2nd, practically 3rd round pick value. You could swap him for that now. But i'd consider that "very little value". Wouldn't you? He simply doesn't have the pedigree, or the narrowing of projection ranges to be worth any more than the gamble he was initially worth. And no, his "bone age" doesn't substantially move the needle on that.

It's paid off in collegiate success in spades...but the question with Hutson was never if he'd be a good amateur player. The question has always been...how will a tiny roving positionless player fare in making the jump to the NHL. Until he does that...he's as much a wildcard in "value" as the 62nd pick he was worth then. Doesn't make any sense for Montreal to trade him for "very little value" in the meantime. They're already in it.

If/when he establishes that he's truly got solid NHL Top-4 ability...his value will skyrocket to adjust accordingly...to the point that it flips upsidedown. Where it still doesn't make any sense for Montreal to trade him, because nobody will be able to offer what it'd take to pry that sort of player away from them.



All prospects have an element of this, but Hutson is such an oddball prospect that it's intensely magnified. It basically makes talking about him as a trade chip an utterly pointless discussion. Which we're now having argumentatively for some reason. When i think you'd generally agree...that it makes absolutely zero sense to trade Lane Hutson at this point. The reason being...the only thing you'd deal him for, is something that no team would ever even remotely consider giving up for him.





The more appropriate Canucks comparison here, would be Adam Gaudette. He was 5th round pick. He had a very strong collegiate trajectory. Culminating with a Hobey Baker win. But ultimately...he was still a prospect of very limited trade value, until he proved he could make that jump to the NHL and translate his play. Which he never really could.

Just a take. Most of this. Not even worth responding too. Hutson worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick . Like I said, please never post again.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Skating flaws? He's not overly fast in straight line speed but his edge work & cross overs are top notch. He's very deceptive with the puck and is always shifting his body weight to throw off any forecheck. Very good at this part and he showed flashes of it in the 2 NHL games he played so far. He certainly lived up to the hype in those 2 games.

His weight/strength is the flaw bud. Not his skating. He's going to need to be paired up with someone sound in terms of strength/size/mobility. Even then, he is susceptible to hits on the boards and I hope his shoulders are strong.

He has good edge work, sure, but his backwards skating isn’t great and as you mentioned, his straight line skating isn’t overly fast.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I don't know where my assessment is problematic because I agree with you.

Hutson's a great offensive talent but he has downsides, like his backward skating and pivot. Plus his overall size and strenght.

BUT, we've seen players getting betters with age. It's not impossible...

But at the end of the day, chances are he'll end up more like a PP specialist that have to be protected from top opposing team best players.

That doesn't means he has not gained value since his drafting though.

I agree with your assessment here. He’s got a chance at becoming a really good offensive player. For the record, I never mentioned anything about his value though. I only commented on the Adam Fox comment. Others were commenting against his value.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He has good edge work, sure, but his backwards skating isn’t great and as you mentioned, his straight line skating isn’t overly fast.

I don't think the skating nit picks will hold him back as much as his lack of weight/strength. I think we got a dynamic PP QB but someone who is going to have to learn how to survive at 5/5.

Lots of Habs fans are looking at his offensive ability only. In the 2 games I saw, he needs adjustments in his own end. Already has high turnovers/60.

He's going to be good. Just not sure how good. I've seen several Habs fans pencil him in our roster next year. Possible but I would have him in the AHL for a season. Not blocking him one bit... he needs to learn how to play against men in his own end.

 

[Crazy8oooo]

I don't think the skating nit picks will hold him back as much as his lack of weight/strength. I think we got a dynamic PP QB but someone who is going to have to learn how to survive at 5/5.

Lots of Habs fans are looking at his offensive ability only. In the 2 games I saw, he needs adjustments in his own end. Already has high turnovers/60.

He's going to be good. Just not sure how good. I've seen several Habs fans pencil him in our roster next year. Possible but I would have him in the AHL for a season. Not blocking him one bit... he needs to learn how to play against men in his own end.

I like him as a prospect and think at the very least, should be able to be a dynamic pp QB as you mention. If he can bulk up some, his size could be less of a problem. I do think he needs to improve his backwards skating though, which I’m sure they’ll attempt to do. Maybe the AHL would be a good spot for that. In any case, I’m rooting for him as we have a similar prospect in Zellweger. Would be cool to see them both hit their high offensive potential.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I like him as a prospect and think at the very least, should be able to be a dynamic pp QB as you mention. If he can bulk up some, his size could be less of a problem. I do think he needs to improve his backwards skating though, which I’m sure they’ll attempt to do. Maybe the AHL would be a good spot for that. In any case, I’m rooting for him as we have a similar prospect in Zellweger. Would be cool to see them both hit their high offensive potential.

Time will tell but yeah, Habs should not be rushing him to the NHL IMO. Let him gain confidence/momentum in the AHL.

 

[zenator]

The Habs would be insane to trade Hutson to move up in the draft.

He is a unique talent with many gifts. Sure, he might not reach his potential, but if he does...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Ah... How cute.

Poor you, are you getting upset because your bad take got pointed out and now you have to sling personal insults to feel better about yourself?

Why not stick to hockey? Oh, wait, I see why that's not a great option given the inability to form a cohesive argument.

Carry on. Don't let me ruin your night.

I'm trying my best not to even reply to those type of posters who can't have a respectful conversation. Just report it. Waste of time trying to talk reason with those who just want to play that "Got Cha Game" and throw out insults. I hope they are teenagers because if an adult is doing this, just WOW!

That deserves more than a warning IMO. It crossed the line of respect. I also think some Mods are joining some bandwagon popular parties. I recently got blocked from a trade proposal I created where others continued to talk but I was not allowed to defend my case. No insults, just trying to defend my opinion a mod blocked me from the thread. What a joke.

 

[biturbo19]

There's a difference between "great hockey player" and good hockey player.

Turning into a Fox kinda defenseman isn't out of the question, even if not very likely.

But saying he has "no value" as of now is, for me, an as extreme point of view as considering him an absolute 100% superstar player.

Personally, I see him as a regular season good contributor, but comes the playoffs, chances are he won't be as effective.

But I think he's an NHL player, just by his offensive talent alone.

MSL is smart enough to use him in order to optimize his strength while keeping him away from exposing his weaknesses.

I suggested a LW/7th defenseman/PP specialist role?

I think when Habs will be in the playoffs, that might be the perfect role for him ..

The thing is though...A lot of stuff here just isn't really lining up right.


The exact reason he has very little trade value right now, is precisely because his outcome might be anywhere between "superstar" and what you describe later as a possibly "perfect role" as some bizarre LW/7th Defenceman/PP Specialist role. Or in other words...since literally no team in the league current uses anything remotely like that configuration, out of the league entirely.


Just because he's a trainwreck defensively and plays a basically positionless game at the NCAA level, doesn't mean he's going to be able to just somehow be effective at LW as a position he's never really played, in an NHL system that still has systematic requirements of that winger. There ain't a team in the league that will keep a guy around as a "spare" who plays once or twice a period, just to "Quarterback their Powerplay". That's not how hockey players even work. They can't come in cold off the bench like that and suddenly start skating and ripping the puck around like an effective PPQB.

He either learns to hack it as a Top-4D, or he's a bust.

And that's why nobody is going to give Habs value for him in terms of moving up in the draft. And it's why it makes no sense for the Habs to move him to move up in the draft. Just hang onto him and see what happens. You're already on the ride. Finish it.

Just a take. Most of this. Not even worth responding too. Hutson worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick . Like I said, please never post again.

Using assorted emojis rather than responding. Okay. If that's the route you want to take. It's kind of embarrassing and more than a little bit rude to ask me to never post again, when you're not even willing to engage with a proper response post.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The Habs would be insane to trade Hutson to move up in the draft.

He is a unique talent with many gifts. Sure, he might not reach his potential, but if he does...

Hutson and Beck are both worth a pick from 13-20 range in this draft. Hutson is A or A- and Beck is B+ on the cusp of A status. Adding the Jets 1st is going overboard but I guess that's what you got to do to make other fans happy and they consider it "reasonable"

Interesting with both Beck and Kapanen in our pool. Close to NHL ready and have a track to fill the 3C hole in the coming years. I can see the Habs moving one of them for another team need but it might be too early to do that.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Hmm I should probably stick on 20, but what if I land that ace?

 

[bud12]

Hutson will make some posters look like fool in the futur. Thinking he's not worth much is laughable.

 

[Miller Time]

Staying longer in the ncaa isnt = to not having high end skills.

No one said it was.

Some players aren't ready, especially dmen, to handle NHL right after being drafted.

What their ability level at the time of draft is, or isn't, is not the same as their ability level several years into their NHL career.

Fox, like Hutson, wasn't a lottery pick at the time of being drafted, not because he lacked high end skills, but because there were legit questions about how it would translate to the NHL. If he had been viewed as a lock to be a future Norris dman, he'd have been selected sooner.

That he played 3 years in college post draft speaks to where he was at then, not to his eventual ascension to Norris/top 5 NHL impact player.

Not sure what's so controversial about that

Not sure where you get such a weird take from. Just read his scouting reports if you don’t believe the high end vision and skating were already there.

Never said he didn't? What are you replying to?

One bad take doesn’t justify another? So me saying he won’t turn into an Adam Fox is a bad take? I’d say it’s reversed and I’m confident most (outside of Habs fans) would agree on him not becoming one of the top defenseman in the NHL.

We'll, do some research... Lots of non Habs fans see the potential for the player to be elite NHLer.

Some of you are so sensitive with regards to others not agreeing that he’ll become one of the best defenseman in hockey. There’s a lot more to a defenseman than just points.

Indeed. Pot. Kettle.

That you think Hutson's impact at every level he's played at is "just about points", is why it's a bad take. Not hard to find non Habs fans assessments that speak to that quite clearly.

Wether he can translate his game to NHL stardom is of course a question mark... Just like it was for Fox. Get it?