Value of: Moving up at the draft from #26 with one of Lane Hutson or Owen Beck.

Miller Time

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Adam Fox level is out of the question since Hutson doesn’t have elite defensive skills like Fox does. I don’t know how you can even suggest that as a possibility.

Adam Fox in college is not the Adam Fox of today... There's a reason he, like Hutson, was drafted as low as he was.

"elite defensive skills" was not his strength at the same age.

I don't know how you can conflate college player projections with established NHLer hindsight.
 
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StreetHawk

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How far could Montreal move up in the draft?

#26 + Lane Hutson?
#26 + Owen Beck?
In the future, you'd get a much better response if you also included who you were targeting to draft in a move up? Are you trying to get to say 10 to secure player X in the draft. Maybe that player is or isn't likely to be there or the teams in that range are or are not likely to drop back.
 

biturbo19

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I don't think most expect him to be an absolute superstar. But he's clearly NHL level.

I don't think either of those is necessarily the "most likely" outcome. But the point is...neither of those outcomes is off the table at 20 years of age. It's atypical, because he plays such a weird game. So he really could be anywhere between "out of the league in three years" and "leading the league in scoring by a defenceman" in that same time span.

It just makes him next to impossible to slap a real clear "value" on in trade. Because to Montreal...he could be anything up to a Superstar. But to other GMs, he could be absolutely nothing and out of the league in a couple years.


Like...playing a couple games very late in a writeoff season doesn't make him "clearly NHL level".
 

Blueston

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This kind of nonsense take is as bad or worse than anything Homer fans post about their teams.
How so? Hutson hasn't proven he is an NHL player. He is a prospect and an undersized one at that. His value is probably around a late 1st or early 2nd, at best. That is actually much better than he was drafted and likely higher than his brother goes. If he was dealt straight up for a pick you can't expect him to return more so why would his value in moving up differ significantly. You think someone is going to deal 2oa for that?!?!
 

Crazy8oooo

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I don't project him like that, but he was better in the NCAA it shouldn't be deemed impossible for him to improve defensively. Offensively, he's already more dynamic imo

Of course if you don't like Hutson you won't be willing to go down for him... But some like him for sure. If you already have a beefed up defense and need a pmd, PP quarter back; Lane is your guy.

For me I'd trade Beck easily before Lane. He's a boom or bust, but the boom is pretty high if it hits.
No doubt Hutson has potential to be a really good player. I’m not suggesting he can’t be. I just think it’s silly of the other poster to suggest he could turn into an Adam Fox.
 

Miller Time

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How so? Hutson hasn't proven he is an NHL player. He is a prospect and an undersized one at that. His value is probably around a late 1st or early 2nd, at best. That is actually much better than he was drafted and likely higher than his brother goes. If he was dealt straight up for a pick you can't expect him to return more so why would his value in moving up differ significantly. You think someone is going to deal 2oa for that?!?!
Nor had Fox... Until his D4 season.

After his D3 season, he was traded for a 2nd & conditional 3rd.

After Hutson's D1 season, Hutson signed an NHL contract and played 2games. You already value him higher than what Fox was actually traded for after his D3...

Spot the inconsistency in your take yet?
 

jfhabs

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I don't think either of those is necessarily the "most likely" outcome. But the point is...neither of those outcomes is off the table at 20 years of age. It's atypical, because he plays such a weird game. So he really could be anywhere between "out of the league in three years" and "leading the league in scoring by a defenceman" in that same time span.

It just makes him next to impossible to slap a real clear "value" on in trade. Because to Montreal...he could be anything up to a Superstar. But to other GMs, he could be absolutely nothing and out of the league in a couple years.


Like...playing a couple games very late in a writeoff season doesn't make him "clearly NHL level".
It's not just the few NHL games, it's his NCAA career, WJC and WC play as well.

There isn't one league or tournament Lane wasn't at least very good (while being the best player in a lot of instance) in the last 4 years. It is true his game is different than most before him, but I'm not sure what else he could do to be considered a sure shot NHLer.

At worst he'll be a PP specialist IMO.
 

Blueston

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Nor had Fox... Until his D4 season.

After his D3 season, he was traded for a 2nd & conditional 3rd.

After Hutson's D1 season, Hutson signed an NHL contract and played 2games. You already value him higher than what Fox was actually traded for after his D3...

Spot the inconsistency in your take yet?
No. And I have no idea what point you are trying to make. I didn't compare him favorably or unfavorably to Fox here. I didn't say he would or wouldn't be great player even. Maybe you are confusing me with another poster. I placed a value on him that to me seemed reasonable and you insulted me and now follow it up by bringing up another player who was dealt for far less than what original poster proposed that I said too much. So congratulations. You are arguing with your own strawman.
 

jfhabs

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No doubt Hutson has potential to be a really good player. I’m not suggesting he can’t be. I just think it’s silly of the other poster to suggest he could turn into an Adam Fox.
I think Lane is his own player. No one really plays like him.
But the potential is very very high.
 

biturbo19

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It's not just the few NHL games, it's his NCAA career, WJC and WC play as well.

There isn't one league or tournament Lane wasn't at least very good (while being the best player in a lot of instance) in the last 4 years. It is true his game is different than most before him, but I'm not sure what else he could do to be considered a sure shot NHLer.

At worst he'll be a PP specialist IMO.

Ehhh...that's the thing though, until he actually makes that jump and shows he can do it, i don't think he plays the sort of game that makes him a "surefire NHLer" until he demonstrates it.

Even the idea of a "PP Specialist at worst", the days of the Marc Andre Bergeron are long gone. Teams just don't keep players like that around long. If a guy can't hack it as a regular Top-4D, they very likely won't stick as a bottom-pairing PPQB. Too many reasonably offensively capable guys around these days, 1D per Powerplay Unit and really only 1 Unit that actually matters. Teams need 1 PPQB and want PKers and responsible even strength contributors on that bottom-pairing.

Look at guys like Calen Addison, given away by the Wild and just barely clinging to an NHL spot with a dumpster fire team that's the only one willing to entertain his skillset. Heck, it's where even a guy like Justin Barron for the Habs who actually has size and plays a far less risky game than Hutson, can run a PP but is still just clinging to a spot in the league.


But even if we say "worst case" for Hutson is "bottom-pairing tiny PP Specialist"...that's the sort of negligible value that keeps other teams from viewing him as anything remotely like the value he potentially has to the Habs. That's waiver fringe value. Whereas the Habs rightfully still have the whole range of potential values in front of them, right up to superstar. Never going to narrow that until he starts to establish himself in the NHL...so he just doesn't make any sense to trade. More valuable to the Habs than as a trade chip.
 
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Crazy8oooo

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Adam Fox in college is not the Adam Fox of today... There's a reason he, like Hutson, was drafted as low as he was.

"elite defensive skills" was not his strength at the same age.

I don't know how you can conflate college player projections with established NHLer hindsight.
Fox’s vision and skating were already top notch at that level which is what’s helped turn him into an elite level defenseman. Hutson, while speedy, isn’t exactly great at all aspects of skating. Fox was steps ahead already as a complete player.

And I didn’t bring up the comparison, a Habs fan did. I was simply responding to it, so maybe jump on him with regards to that.
 
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Blueston

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Holy overrated.
Exactly. It's so amusing with some of these fanbases. Many of them think all of their smallest prospects are a near certainty to be stars, while they hate ones like Reinbacher because he isn't some 5'10" ballerina they wish their team had drafted instead.
 

jfhabs

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Ehhh...that's the thing though, until he actually makes that jump and shows he can do it, i don't think he plays the sort of game that makes him a "surefire NHLer" until he demonstrates it.

Even the idea of a "PP Specialist at worst", the days of the Marc Andre Bergeron are long gone. Teams just don't keep players like that around long. If a guy can't hack it as a regular Top-4D, they very likely won't stick as a bottom-pairing PPQB. Too many reasonably offensively capable guys around these days, 1D per Powerplay Unit and really only 1 Unit that actually matters. Teams need 1 PPQB and want PKers and responsible even strength contributors on that bottom-pairing.

Look at guys like Calen Addison, given away by the Wild and just barely clinging to an NHL spot with a dumpster fire team that's the only one willing to entertain his skillset. Heck, it's where even a guy like Justin Barron for the Habs who actually has size and plays a far less risky game than Hutson, can run a PP but is still just clinging to a spot in the league.


But even if we say "worst case" for Hutson is "bottom-pairing tiny PP Specialist"...that's the sort of negligible value that keeps other teams from viewing him as anything remotely like the value he potentially has to the Habs. That's waiver fringe value. Whereas the Habs rightfully still have the whole range of potential values in front of them, right up to superstar. Never going to narrow that until he starts to establish himself in the NHL...so he just doesn't make any sense to trade. More valuable to the Habs than as a trade chip.
Marc-André Bergeron, Calen Addison, Justin Barron.... waiver value... yeah, these are opinions. I mean most picks from 10 onward have expected range going from waiver to superstar. You gamble on the top end with Lane. Some GM like him for sure, and some won't (like you). I'm not his biggest fan, but I'm not blind.

Not for trade anyway so not worth debating further.

Are there any of your good prospects Montreal (fans) think are available in a trade?
We're rebuilding...
 

Miller Time

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Fox’s vision and skating were already top notch at that level which is what’s helped turn him into an elite level defenseman. Hutson, while speedy, isn’t exactly great at all aspects of skating. Fox was steps ahead already as a complete player.
What you say doesn't match what actually transpired.

There's a reason he stayed in the NCAA as long as he did.

And I didn’t bring up the comparison, a Habs fan did. I was simply responding to it, so maybe jump on him with regards to that.

One bad take doesn't justify another

No. And I have no idea what point you are trying to make. I didn't compare him favorably or unfavorably to Fox here. I didn't say he would or wouldn't be great player even. Maybe you are confusing me with another poster. I placed a value on him that to me seemed reasonable and you insulted me and now follow it up by bringing up another player who was dealt for far less than what original poster proposed that I said too much. So congratulations. You are arguing with your own strawman.
Yes, the value you placed on him doesn't match your own assessment. Read your own post... It's all right there.

No strawman here, just a bad take.
 

Tanknation

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Hutson is a weird one, in that he has the hopes and dreams of many Habs fans riding with the idea that he's going to become an absolute superstar. But in terms of trade value...he's probably got very little. Because quite frankly...it's not even clear he's going to be an NHL player at all at this point. His "outcomes" range is a hundred miles wide. Anywhere from superstar to complete bust who flunks out of the NHL still.



Beck on the other hand...i don't really understand the idea of tossing him into a trade when he's at the cusp of NHL ready...to move up and draft another complete lottery ticket.
Hutson being one of the top D prospects In the game has very little value? Wether he reaches his potential is to be seen. But at any rate, thank you for your glorious insight. Please never post again.
 

biturbo19

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Jul 13, 2010
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Hutson being one of the top D prospects In the game has very little value? Wether he reaches his potential is to be seen. But at any rate, thank you for your glorious insight. Please never post again.

I didn't say he has very little value to the Habs. He just has very little value in trade, for other teams...relative to the way the the Habs likely value him. Nobody is going to pay anywhere near what Habs fans and management think he's potentially worth. If you can't handle a nuanced concept like that, that's your problem.

Please read better. Be less defensive about your prized little, far from flawless prospect.
 

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