I put no stock in anything adjustedCrosby does have a chance to become #2 all time in adjusted assists, and that is immensely impressive - especially for a player with 662 adjusted goals.
NHL & WHA Career Leaders and Records for Adjusted Assists | Hockey-Reference.com
1. Wayne Gretzky (1717), 2. Gordie Howe (1265), 3. Jaromír Jágr (1239), 4. Joe Thornton (1215), 5. Ron Francis (1193), 6. Sidney Crosby (1139), 7. Mark Messier (1104), 8. Adam Oates (1065), 9. Ray Bourque (1058), 10. Joe Sakic (1036)www.hockey-reference.com
Regardless, the all-time goals record is a higher achievement.
Most goals (Ovy) vs Most assists (Crosby) in NHL history?
- Thread starter SeanMoneyHands
- Start date
in NHL, the goal record is not even close to the assist record in how difficult it is to achieve, so no, it's not the better individual record.
WalterLundy
Registered User
In NHL history there has been an average of 1.63 assists per goal. I have never been a fan of one being worth more than the other as a point is a point, but if you wanted a visual of how much more impressive the assists record is you could treat goals and assists as unequal.
If you converted 1,963 assists to goals based on the average assists per goal it would come out to 1,204 goals. That record would stand forever undoubtedly with nobody coming remotely close and clearing the actual record by a 310. If you converted the current goals record of 894 to assists it comes out to 1,457 which is 506 short of the actual record.
Along with Gretzky (while I still believe he was the best goal scorer ever) there were and are players like Lemieux, Bossy and Ovechkin who were right there with him as goal scorers depending on how you compare. For assists there never was any competition and never will be. What Ovechkin is doing with goals would be equivalent to 1,415 assists right now. This would still be remarkable and the best non Gretzky assists total ever by a margin but would still be 548 short. It just goes to show that the only actual breakable record is the goals record.
If you converted 1,963 assists to goals based on the average assists per goal it would come out to 1,204 goals. That record would stand forever undoubtedly with nobody coming remotely close and clearing the actual record by a 310. If you converted the current goals record of 894 to assists it comes out to 1,457 which is 506 short of the actual record.
Along with Gretzky (while I still believe he was the best goal scorer ever) there were and are players like Lemieux, Bossy and Ovechkin who were right there with him as goal scorers depending on how you compare. For assists there never was any competition and never will be. What Ovechkin is doing with goals would be equivalent to 1,415 assists right now. This would still be remarkable and the best non Gretzky assists total ever by a margin but would still be 548 short. It just goes to show that the only actual breakable record is the goals record.
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Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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WalterLundy
Registered User
I didn’t vote. Although Ovechkin breaking it will be still impressive. The Crosby element to this particular thing makes it bizarre at best. I was just saying that if one broke the assist record it would be far more impressive than the goals not that one can.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Ovi's record will be more impressive by virtue of him actually doing it. The goals record is also the flashier and more celebrated one to break.
The assist record would be more impressive easily because it probably stands as Gretzky's single most unassailable record given that he came incredibly close to pretty much lapping the rest of the field. But it's also clear that Crosby has absolutely no shot at coming anywhere close to breaking it so that kind of makes this whole discussion pointless.
I don't feel like doing the actual complicated math to forecast any of this with any degree of statistical validity (like actual extrapolations and analysis to come up with reasonable estimates for his future. I'm more than happy to eyeball it and "this feels OK to guess about" though), but just looking at his numbers for his career his assist/game figures have been falling off the last 4 years (4 years ago it was 0.77 assists per game. This year it's .57 and it was a smooth descent in between). But let's say for the sake of argument he could level off on that decline and produce what he's doing this year for the foreseeable future without slipping any more.
right now he needs 233 assists to pass Francis for 2nd on the list. If he continues at his current pace for the rest of the year, assuming he doesn't miss any games he would rack up about 47 assists (I'm giving him an extra one for rounding purposes) and he would then be 186 assists shy of passing Francis.
at 0.57 assists per game it would take him another 329 games to get those 186 assists. or just the tiniest sliver over 4 full seasons if he were to never miss a game. So basically he would have to play every game from now until the beginnings of his age 42 season with zero appreciable decline to get 2nd place. Sid has done well to not miss a game the last couple of years, but history suggests that's not something to bank on, nor can we expect him to fight off father time for nearly another half-decade.
If he finishes this season with 47 assists as I noted above he would be at 1,064 which would squeak him 1 past Steve Yzerman for 9th on the list. He'd be just 15 back of Oates and easily able to do that next season. Joe Thornton is 45 assists up on our hypothetical end point for this year so even if he declines going forward he can probably do that with 1 more good year or 2 years if he starts to slide. By that point Sid's 39 and he would still be 20-25 assists behind Paul Coffey for 6th. Maybe one more decent year at 40 gets him there but that might be the end of the line. Because Jagr is 20 assists up on Coffey's mark of 1,135. Bourque is 14 beyond that, and Messier another 25 past Bourque.
So by the time he's 40 He's going to be 40 to 45 assists shy of cracking the top 5 and the question becomes how much beyond 40 years old does he want to/can he play and how much does the gradual drag of time and injury lengthen that journey. And that doesn't even account for whether or not he wants to leave Pittsburgh as they slide towards a teardown/rebuild scenario that's going to limit the talent around him and suppress his assist opportunities even more than just time and durability alone.
Ultimately this is a lot of blather to ask if Crosby reaching a comfortable 6th on the all-time assist list is anywhere close to the cache and importance of Ovechkin claiming the all-time goals crown. The answer is obviously "no" just as it was when I started this post, which only leaves me to ask why I wasted all my time on that fiddly but rudimentary math and eyeballing exercise.
The assist record would be more impressive easily because it probably stands as Gretzky's single most unassailable record given that he came incredibly close to pretty much lapping the rest of the field. But it's also clear that Crosby has absolutely no shot at coming anywhere close to breaking it so that kind of makes this whole discussion pointless.
I don't feel like doing the actual complicated math to forecast any of this with any degree of statistical validity (like actual extrapolations and analysis to come up with reasonable estimates for his future. I'm more than happy to eyeball it and "this feels OK to guess about" though), but just looking at his numbers for his career his assist/game figures have been falling off the last 4 years (4 years ago it was 0.77 assists per game. This year it's .57 and it was a smooth descent in between). But let's say for the sake of argument he could level off on that decline and produce what he's doing this year for the foreseeable future without slipping any more.
right now he needs 233 assists to pass Francis for 2nd on the list. If he continues at his current pace for the rest of the year, assuming he doesn't miss any games he would rack up about 47 assists (I'm giving him an extra one for rounding purposes) and he would then be 186 assists shy of passing Francis.
at 0.57 assists per game it would take him another 329 games to get those 186 assists. or just the tiniest sliver over 4 full seasons if he were to never miss a game. So basically he would have to play every game from now until the beginnings of his age 42 season with zero appreciable decline to get 2nd place. Sid has done well to not miss a game the last couple of years, but history suggests that's not something to bank on, nor can we expect him to fight off father time for nearly another half-decade.
If he finishes this season with 47 assists as I noted above he would be at 1,064 which would squeak him 1 past Steve Yzerman for 9th on the list. He'd be just 15 back of Oates and easily able to do that next season. Joe Thornton is 45 assists up on our hypothetical end point for this year so even if he declines going forward he can probably do that with 1 more good year or 2 years if he starts to slide. By that point Sid's 39 and he would still be 20-25 assists behind Paul Coffey for 6th. Maybe one more decent year at 40 gets him there but that might be the end of the line. Because Jagr is 20 assists up on Coffey's mark of 1,135. Bourque is 14 beyond that, and Messier another 25 past Bourque.
So by the time he's 40 He's going to be 40 to 45 assists shy of cracking the top 5 and the question becomes how much beyond 40 years old does he want to/can he play and how much does the gradual drag of time and injury lengthen that journey. And that doesn't even account for whether or not he wants to leave Pittsburgh as they slide towards a teardown/rebuild scenario that's going to limit the talent around him and suppress his assist opportunities even more than just time and durability alone.
Ultimately this is a lot of blather to ask if Crosby reaching a comfortable 6th on the all-time assist list is anywhere close to the cache and importance of Ovechkin claiming the all-time goals crown. The answer is obviously "no" just as it was when I started this post, which only leaves me to ask why I wasted all my time on that fiddly but rudimentary math and eyeballing exercise.
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