Speculation: Most beneficial for this team vs your preference: Run for a WC spot, or a high pick?

[HabsCode]

2 part to the question:

As a fan, which scenery would you prefer: Fight until the ends for a playoff spot (but not making it) or finish lower in the standing and picking 5-8?

And as far as team building goes, which one do you think would be the most beneficial (keep in mind the first scenery the team does not qualify for a playoff spot, but stays in the race until the end of the season). Keep in mind too that we still have a lottery chance at a top 2 pick as the rules with standing odds still applies.

So gained experience against adversity and playing competitive games for a full season, vs a somewhat high pick (around 5-8 with low odds at a top 2 pick).

I didn’t make a thread about making the playoffs vs picking top 3 as to not just start another tank vs not tank thread.

Click to read more...

 

[WinterLion]

To me it's not about the pick. It's about the opportunity cost of not trading Evans, Savard and Armia. If we trade those guys I'm happy with anything that happens!

 

[Sasha Orlov]

High pick and offload some guys

 

[Ezpz]

To be honest the pick would do more long term. But the loser mentality is why buffalo is still trash with a pretty great roster. They're a feeder team dealing elite players to the rest of the league.

Dobes basically is the choice here. If we'd kept Primeau up he would have lost every game in regulation and we'd be 11 points back of where Dobby got us.

That alone would move us from 2 points out of a wiflcard to one point ahead of Buffalo for fourth worst in the league.

If anything I'd reward the boys and add a piece that fits like Carrier for getting this close. I don't see elite talent at number five anyways. Demidov and Hutson are first overall talents so let's just count out blessings.

 

[x-bob]

Realistically, we aren’t a slam dunk bottom 10 team like years past. If we are drafting 5th to 8th, it means our core pieces that we have put together in the last few years have not progressed enough and I would start worrying about being stuck in a never ending rebuild.

If we are playing meaningful games until late in the season and we are being led by the likes of Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Dach, Hutson, Ghule and our goalies, then we are on the right path! I don’t see much difference between drafting 10th and 20th, considering what we already have in the pipeline. Winning builds confidence and confidence brings success.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Get a somewhat high pick around 10th. Habs play well and compete, but still get a decent pick, as they sorely need it.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Realistically, we aren’t a slam dunk bottom 10 team like years past. If we are drafting 5th to 8th, it means our core pieces that we have put together in the last few years have not progressed enough and I would start worrying about being stuck in a never ending rebuild.

If we are playing meaningful games until late in the season and we are being led by the likes of Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Dach, Hutson, Ghule and our goalies, then we are on the right path! I don’t see much difference between drafting 10th and 20th, considering what we already have in the pipeline. Winning builds confidence and confidence brings success.

The core pieces have already developed. A high draft pick would mean the bottom 6 and bottom 2 d are crap.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Get a somewhat high pick around 10th. Habs play well and compete, but still get a decent pick, as they sorely need it.

The pick won't ne ready for 3 or 4 years anyway. They need 2 or 3 guys that are developing in the AHL and maybe to add a forward by FA or trade.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

The pick won't ne ready for 3 or 4 years anyway. They need 2 or 3 guys that are developing in the AHL and maybe to add a forward by FA or trade.

Yeah, that's fine. You get a player whos ready in a few years to replace someone who's becoming too expensive, or to give yourself some really nice depth for a run.

 

[habamillions]

Its tough. The team definitepy needs another top prospect. But the current core needs to know what it is like to play in meaningful games. So obviously what is gling to happen is mtl will finish 16th. Fail to make the playoffs and also fail to get a top pick. But mqybe a caufield or guhle fall to that spot like before

 

[ahmedou]

WC Spot. It's the baby step. To become contenders.

High picks. It's lottery. It's like gambling.

 

[salbutera]

The pick won't ne ready for 3 or 4 years anyway. They need 2 or 3 guys that are developing in the AHL and maybe to add a forward by FA or trade.

Good players don’t play long in AHL, 1-season max - those who need more time are complementary players

 

[x-bob]

The core pieces have already developed. A high draft pick would mean the bottom 6 and bottom 2 d are crap.

If the core pieces have already developed and you are still finishing 5th to 8th, start questioning those pieces.

 

[DAChampion]

The Habs have three more games against the Florida Panthers. The best case scenario is that they win all three in regulation, that way they can increase the odds of both playoff success and a high pick.

 

[Adam Michaels]

For me, it's time for Habs to take the next step. I prefer they continue to be in the mix. There's something to be said for the young guys who are currently in the line-up to be playing significant games. High picks are fun and I will never say no to picking high. But while we prefer the team to lose in order to pick high, we neglect the progress and development of those there now.

Whether they get in or not is not what matters to me. But it won't feel like a lost season if they continue to be in the mix. I'm happy we're in late January and Habs are still playing significant games. Because by now the last few years, we were at the bottom of the standings and we were cheering for losses. It feels great to cheer when they score and win.

If they fall, they fall. But it's not my preference. I'm of the opinion that you can't pick high year after year after year and then you snap your fingers one year and you're suddenly a playoff team. That's how you end up being like the Sabres and Ducks of the world. I'm not interested in that one bit.

 

[vokiel]

Personal preference is to get a high pick. I see the club facing the same difficulties other rebuilds have faced: Some of the draftees and reclamation projects will not live up to expectations. Obviously, what's best for the team, is everyone lives up to expectation and then you'd want them to battle for a playoff spot ASAP.

I'm just not an optimist by nature. Battle with what you have, but it shouldn't change the fact that this is still a rebuild and we're no where near the retool some are suggesting. Clinching a playoff spot would be nice if you can do something significant with it. A first round exit could be worst for morale and team culture, than not making it imho.

 

[Benstheman]

Unless the team goes back to playing like it was for the first 25 games, there won’t be a 5-8 OA pick. I think we can put this option to garbage right now.

The best outcome is Habs make the playoffs and Calgary finishes 11-12 OA pick and from there we can trade up to 7-8 overall using our multiple 2nds to do so.

Making the playoffs would do wonders for this young team on the confidence side.

 

[Miller Time]

Adding high quality assets is my personal preference, but successfully battling for a playoff spot would be the best for this young core.

Worst case scenario would be to just miss the playoffs, get nothing for our UFAs & end up with the worst pick of the non playoff teams...

 

[ReHabs]

It's an interesting inflection point we find the Habs. In the now disappeared 'tank thread' there were many sincere arguments put forth in favour of tanking, picking up additional assets, etc. I wonder if the people who put forth those arguments would be so kind as to re-state and re-evaluate their arguments.

Some stats

• By December 1st, the Habs played 24 games (c. 30% of a season) and were 31st of 32 and 1 point ahead of DEAD LAST in the NHL.
  • Squandering 30% of an NHL season is very much not what a good team does.
  • The top10 teams by pt% as of Dec 1st (in order): MIN, WSH, WPG, CAR, VGK, TOR, DAL, VAN, NJD, & LAK
• From Dec 1 to Jan 26, the Habs played another 26 games (31% of a season) at a blistering pace and find themselves now 20th of 32 in the NHL by pt%.
  • The top10 teams by pt% from Dec 1st to Jan 26th (in order): EDM, WSH, MTL, DAL, VGK, LAK, COL, OTT, WPG, CGY
• In the Eastern Conference the Habs are currently 10th of 16 by pts and pt%, so a touch below average
• The top10 teams by pt% from the start of the season to Jan26th: WSH, WPG, EDM, VGK, DAL, CAR, LAK, TOR, MIN, FLA
• Teams that have been top10 by pt% all along until Jan26th: WSH, WPG, VGK, LAK, DAL

While success in the playoffs is not guaranteed, these five teams are performing like real contenders and short-odds favourites for success + EDM, FLA, and the now reinforced CAR perhaps makes up to 8 "contenders". After 61% of the season has been played, we can see the Habs are not a contender (but we knew that), but also not really even a pretender-contender (everybody knew that going into the season, but maybe the recent streak influenced perceptions). I think the Habs are a pretender-pretender: will come up short for a playoff spot.

Is being a pretender-pretender particularly bad? No, I don't think so. I think for the good of the squad it's good for them to be in the mix of things and we can see how it's been good for certain core players.

For the good of the hockey club, I want to see them sell at the deadline. The roster will suffer from a lot of turnover anyway come the summer, they will have to re-gel and find their mojo anyway, they will need to find a new and better roster dynamic anyway because the current one is clearly not one of a contender. I hope HuGo won't be so precious and nervous to make moves for the greater good. This is likely the last trade deadline we can really sell so we might as well do it and see how and where we finish in the draft pick race.

I have no interest in retaining the services of Joel '1 season out of every 4' Armia or Jake 'over double his career sh%' Evans. Great guys, I'm sure. I wish them well.

 

[Saundies]

For me, it's time for Habs to take the next step. I prefer they continue to be in the mix. There's something to be said for the young guys who are currently in the line-up to be playing significant games. High picks are fun and I will never say no to picking high. But while we prefer the team to lose in order to pick high, we neglect the progress and development of those there now.

Whether they get in or not is not what matters to me. But it won't feel like a lost season if they continue to be in the mix. I'm happy we're in late January and Habs are still playing significant games. Because by now the last few years, we were at the bottom of the standings and we were cheering for losses. It feels great to cheer when they score and win.

If they fall, they fall. But it's not my preference. I'm of the opinion that you can't pick high year after year after year and then you snap your fingers one year and you're suddenly a playoff team. That's how you end up being like the Sabres and Ducks of the world. I'm not interested in that one bit.

Spot on.

Promising prospects are just that, promising. Until they aren't. They're supposed to turn into players who help you win hockey games. If every great prospect or high pick was a sure-thing, this would be a different conversation but that's not the case at all. If it were, as Adam mentioned above, Buffalo would be a dynasty.

I mentioned this in the trade thread but we have young guys signed long term that make up our current core (this isn't my opinion, this is based off their contracts): Caufield, Suzuki, Slaf and Guhle. Hutson will probably be signed to join this group at some point soon.

We have 4 (this is my opinion) untouchable prospects: Demidov, Hage, Reinbacher (iffy to me but the org probably sees him as untouchable), and Fowler.

Everyone else is gravy/expendable to help the current crop get to where they need to be. Picking Demidov last year was getting our ace in the hole, someone who can come in and take us to another level. The rest can either be traded to get better players or let go if they demand too much money and it messes with our internal logistics.

Now, prospects are important no doubt. And if you can get good ones as you grow, all the better. But actively taking or taking away from the current team for a small chance at a marginally better prospect that realistically won't see the big club or make any kind of an impact in a minimum of 3-5 years (at this stage) would be insanely counterproductive to what we're trying to do.

 

[DAChampion]

I have no interest in retaining the services of Joel '1 season out of every 4' Armia or Jake 'over double his career sh%' Evans. Great guys, I'm sure. I wish them well.

But if Armia, Savard, and Evans are not that good, what is the point of trading them? The return would then likely be low, and then the best option might be to keep them and move on come July 1st.

Do you really want to open four spots (with Dvorak) for rookies? UFAs?

My serious view: Take this team as far as it can go. I'm guessing that means a second round exit. Good for experience and confidence. Do a hockey move at the deadline if there's an opportunity, and tweak it there's an injury.

 

[ReHabs]

But if Armia, Savard, and Evans are not that good, what is the point of trading them? The return would then likely be low, and then the best option might be to keep them and move on come July 1st.

I never said they're not that good. I don't think they're priority parts of the future core. If the Habs sell them, and then circle back as FAs and sign them to good deals, that would be fine too.

Do you really want to open four spots (with Dvorak) for rookies? UFAs?

Yes, I think turnover is inevitable and should be welcome. I don't think this roster mix is particularly precious.

My serious view: Take this team as far as it can go. I'm guessing that means a second round exit. Good for experience and confidence. Do a hockey move at the deadline if there's an opportunity, and tweak it there's an injury.

You think the Habs can best WSH, CAR, or FLA in a playoff series? I'd only bet on the Habs if they face TOR but they'd need to get to the playoffs first and it doesn't seem likely if only for the fact they squandered the first 30% of the season.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

To be honest the pick would do more long term. But the loser mentality is why buffalo is still trash with a pretty great roster.

That's a fallacy. Bad management and bad timing/luck is what keeps teams down. Rarely do professional hockey players have a loser mentality. It's non-sensical. You can grade players by their competitiveness and a team's capacity to identify which have more is what will create a winning environment. It's not about having or not having a loser mentality, but of having sufficient players with talent and competitiveness. The only way to do this is to acquire enough talent and sift out the ones who don't have the required amount of both talent and competitiveness. It's entirely a management problem, rather than one where players become complacent of losing. If they become complacent about losing, it's because management didn't do proper identification and acquirement.

 

[vokiel]

I don't think trading Dvorak, Armia, Evans and Savard necessarily implies replacing them with rookies no. It simply means we're keeping options open for July 1st and possibly up to next training camp.

It would mean that for 20 games, you'd test your current crop for sure though.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Realistically, we aren’t a slam dunk bottom 10 team like years past. If we are drafting 5th to 8th, it means our core pieces that we have put together in the last few years have not progressed enough

We've injected only two players from our rebuild drafts (Hutson and Slaf). Being bottom 5 would only mean we haven't rebuild long enough, which is consequential to what management inherited, rather than what they have done.